There have definitely been more compelling cards than this one at Saratoga this meet, but under the right conditions, this wouldn’t be the waste of time it appears to be now.
It reminds me of the typical card that I might see when my family makes their annual trip upstate. We go on weekdays because the Moquins despise crowds and strangers, and I’ve learned that these quiet days at the Spa can be some of the most enjoyable when going in person. Unfortunately, the experience isn’t as rewarding on the couch.
Race 1
$20,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
There have been worse statebred maiden races in the past, but I don’t expect anything too live to come out of this race going forward. My top four:
5- Warfront Fighter
Since coming off the layoff, this runner has delivered two performances of the same quality using different running styles. While it isn’t great to see Irad Ortiz skip this race, the fact that he didn’t take a mount at all mitigates the downside there. His last race was very live, as Fed Funds and Height both ran fairly well in their next starts. Gary Gullo has been very disappointing so far upstate, but this colt was one of his competent runners at Belmont and will get some appropriate class relief here.
8- Boss Life
Dale Romans will bring his first runner to Saratoga with this colt coming off a solid performance at Keeneland last month. The winner of that race, Naughty Prince, won yesterday in the second race here, but that was a very low-quality field. Kendrick Carmouche isn’t an ideal pickup for Romans, but this is a fairly weak field that didn’t attract too many great riders. Based on his last performance, I think this colt can have a say shipping north.
6- Cause I Said So
I think this gelding’s poor performance off the layoff can be chalked up to the route distance, although I am a little concerned that it had something to do with needing a race as well. Regardless, Michelle Nevin will move him back to a sprint distance here, and Nevin is much more effective with runners making their second starts off layoffs. In addition, she recruits Joel Rosario to ride for the first time, and while Rosario is desperate to pick up mounts in what is now a very real fight for the riding title, his services are still very valuable to a horse like this.
4- Macho Jack
This gelding is a year older than many of the other contenders, and his races last year would make him a serious threat. However, I don’t like this class drop at all. Before the break, Rudy Rodriguez became his trainer after a start at the $50,000 claiming level. Now, after nearly nine months on the shelf, he’s selling for $20,000. That’s enough reason to go against him at a short price.
Order: 5 8 6 4
Warfront Fighter has been very consistent lately and performed well in a live race last time out, much tougher than the field he’ll be facing today. Meanwhile, Boss Life is Dale Romans’ first shipper of the meet, and it will be good to find out whether he’s bringing live horses or not in a limited sample size. Cause I Said So is entering his second start off the layoff and is getting back to a familiar distance. Meanwhile, Macho Jack is a very vulnerable favorite that I don’t expect to return with one of his better performances.
Race 2
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
Usually starter allowances are some of the more competitive races for handicappers, but this one is a little underwhelming. The favorite is vulnerable, but there’s not much in the field to beat her, so I didn’t try to:
2- Keota
In a typical starter allowance, I would consider this recent Chad Brown acquisition to be a little vulnerable as a favorite. However, this field is a little weak for this level, which unfortunately makes her more reasonable. After being taken away from Jason Servis, she took a step back under Brown in her first start off the layoff, finishing second in an upset at this level. However, with Brown as her trainer, it’s very sensible to expect that he can get the best out of her in time. She makes her second start off the layoff here, and she has superior connections to every other contender in the race.
6- Jades Gelly
At 16-1, she ran very well to finish third, very close behind fellow runner Keota after stalking the whole way. That was her first attempt at six furlongs and she shortens up here to a distance she may be more familiar with from her Gulfstream days. Wesley Ward is an excellent trainer and retains the services of Javier Castellano, and while I’m not sure that she’ll be as close to Keota this time around, I don’t see why she can’t run reasonably well.
5- Wicked Amber
Alright, I don’t love putting Randi Persaud’s horses in my analyses, but I actually think he has a decent runner here. For whatever reason, this filly has proven twice now that she likes this track and the five and a half furlong distance. In addition, her only victory came in an open company maiden special weight on the turf at Aqueduct. She’s 8-1 because of her trainer, rather than any issue with her as a runner. On the other hand, if she was trained by someone like Bill Mott, I doubt she’d have just the one win. Still, she’s undeniably a horse to consider.
4- Grudge
She ran fairly well on the front end in a conditional claimer up here last month, and Chris Englehart must feel confident to take a small step up in class so that he can’t lose her. However, I don’t feel comfortable betting horses on one performance, and this is a very flimsy performance to go on in a field where she fits in more than stands out. Still, she’s one to consider.
Order: 2 6 5 4
I don’t love Keota, but it would be very difficult for me to go against Chad Brown in this field. Jades Gelly is probably the one that can beat her, but she lost to her last time despite running against her at a vulnerable moment. Wicked Amber and Grudge are decent runners with poor connections.
Race 3
$16,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This race really comes down to two runners that couldn quite cut it at a higher level. They’re much better than their competition here, however, despite the fact that the drop they’re making is sensible. My top four:
7- My Sacred Place
In his first race off the layoff, this colt was clearly overmatched by the likes of Bray and Mandate, so this drop in class is a sensible one. Brad Cox and Luis Saez are both a little cold at Saratoga so far, but seem to be teaming up with a solid runner here. Assuming he maintains his form, which isn’t something I’m all that worried about, he should be able to handle this field with much less trouble than his last start in which he was overmatched.
2- Star of the West
His first start looks better than it is, because he did defeat a competent runner in Cobble Hill but also got a very easy lead that would’ve been difficult for him to relinquish. He ran close to my expectations in his next start when he didn’t fire at all coming off the pace, but he was up against some far superior horses that day. This is a much more reasonable spot for him, which is something Rudy Rodriguez is usually very adept with. Irad Ortiz is returning to ride, and I’m expecting his mount to improve here in his second test against winners.
1- No More Miracles
This four-year-old is very inconsistent and only has one victory in 15 starts, but his last performance before the layoff makes him a good fit for this race. It will like drive his price down on the board a little, but I’m not too enthusiastic about it because of David Donk’s poor numbers off layoffs.
6- I Saw It All
This colt has occasionally run fast enough to contend in this field. However, his last race was terrible at this level, and with James Ferraro training, I can’t put much stock in a total recovery.
Order: 7 2 1 6
I think this race will come down to My Sacred Place and Star of the West, and the former was in a much tougher race last time and seems to have an edge in terms of preparation. No More Miracles and I Saw It All don’t interest me for the top spot.
Race 4
$25,000 Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Inner Turf
This is another race that I easily narrowed down to two runners, though there are some outsiders with a solid chance. My top four:
2- Catch a Cab
The last time he raced at this level, this gelding won very professionally over three runners he’ll be facing here. In his last start, he took a step up in class and was a little overwhelmed in a race that was even better than the optional claiming level suggests. Dr. Shane is no joke, but he’s not Rinaldi or Graded On a Curve, and with the class relief, I think this horse will return to his winning ways.
1- Dr. Shane
I actually like the idea of this gelding going a little longer, so I’m happy to see him at a mile. I believe his last race was more of a warmup at a very short distance, and in that race, there was serious trouble in the stretch that didn’t affect him directly but didn’t help him either. Danny Gargan finds him some class relief and a more manageable distance, and while he’s been dropping through the levels a lot lately, he may have found the right spot.
6- Pipes
This colt is primarily a dirt runner, but several trainers have been curious about his ability on the turf in the past. Rudy Rodriguez has run him in rained off dirt races in the past, and will finally get a chance to test him on the grass. He’s yet to win on the surface in five starts, but he’s run competently in the past. Betting him requires some trust in Rodriguez to prepare him for the surface change, and for the right price, it may be worth the gamble.
7- Mission Command
In his last start, he was plainly outrun by Catch a Cab and appears to have speed figures that put him a step below other contenders. To find some upside, he hasn’t had as good a jockey as Tyler Gaffalione on his back since Javier Castellano rode him back in 2018. Even still, he’ll have to improve to have any chance of winning here.
Order: 2 1 6 7
Catch a Cab and Dr. Shane are easily the two most qualified in the field, and Catch a Cab is more proven at route distances. Pipes hasn’t yet won on turf, but has piqued several trainers’ interest when trying the grass in the past. Mission Command will have to improve.
Race 5
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
I don’t think there’s a really serious firster in this race, which means that it’s a wide open affair. However, I did end up settling on a favored runner in my top four:
7- Lollygag
She really seemed to figure it out late in her first start last time out as she came flying down the center of the track to take fourth at Keeneland. Michael Lauer is a respectable traine that only brought three horses to Saratoga last year, so bringing a two-year-old for this summer is a sign of confidence. Luis Saez tales the mount, and I expect the filly to use her experience to take a step forward here in statebred competition.
6- Guardian Moon
Jorge Abreu won with a firster last week at 8-1 odds, and that’s probably the last time one of his firsters will go for that much for a while. This one seems to have all the positive signs, from a quick recent workout to a solid Tomlinson. Joel Rosario is an interesting pickup as well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she responded well in her debut.
4- Herald Angel
Michael Maker isn’t very good with first time starters, but he and Irad Ortiz been great lately. The filly hasn’t been stunning in the morning, and her connection to her sire may indicate that she’d appreciate a wet track. However, this race isn’t very deep and a surprise isn’t out of the question.
3- Shesadirtydancer
This filly hasn’t been doing too well on the dirt, and it’s unclear if Rudy Rodriguez is switching her to turf out of intent or desperation. However, the move from Romero Maragh to Javier Castellano is a profound one that may indicate this is a winning position for her.
Order: 7 6 4 3
I really like Lollygag’s first start from a visual perspective, and I believe she can build on it this time around. Guardian Moon is a very tough first time starter while Herald Angel seems to be a bit trickier to predict, and Shesadirtydancer is a wild card trying the turf for Rudy Rodriguez.
Race 6
$16,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races
I really want Jonathan Thomas to win this race, if only because I want to start betting on his horses again. However, he does have some challengers here, which makes my top four very hesitant:
2- Gesture
Alright, this is an opportunity for Jonathan Thomas to finally break through. The winning trainer of the 2018 Travers hasn’t won a race in New York since the Aqueduct meet, but he has the best horse here by a considerable margin. Down in Florida, this filly was earning figures that would defeat this field by several lengths, and if Thomas can just ship her up here in good order, he may just be able to finally notch a victory.
3- La Negrita
This filly is giving me upset vibes, which is a shame considering my unwavering support of Jonathan Thomas. In her second start off the layoff, she ran fairly well at this level at Belmont, and Reylu Gutierrez was riding, which indicates it wasn’t a very serious attempt by Rodriguez to win. Now Irad Ortiz is riding, and there’s no better indicator than that. She’s 1-for-12 in her career and has finished second four times, but if she’s ever going to upset a field, this would be the time to do so.
4- Wicked Title
She’s been dropping in class ever since the G2 Miss Grillo, and it appears that she’s slowly finding her level. Her speed figures roughly fit in this race, but my main concern is that she was supposed to be a turf horse for most of her career and now her connections seem to be settling for a mediocre career in dirt. She’s a contender in a weak field, but I wouldn’t take her to win.
7- Heartstrings
This is the only filly Greg Matties is currently training. Weird, right? Her speed figures make her a solid outsider in this race, and while I’ll never forget her stunning maiden debut victory, I don’t think I can support her for much more than a minor prize.
Order: 2 3 4 7
Gesture is a deserving favorite for Jonathan Thomas, but I think La Negrita poses a very real upset chance. Wicked Title and Heartstrings seem more like outsiders to me.
Race 7
$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 3/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is an excellent turf race at a very tricky distance. There aren’t many horses that can handle it, but several of them are running here. My very competitive top four:
6- Eliade (Fr)
Chad Brown knew that he was giving this filly a tune up last time out when he entered her at 1 1/16 miles at Belmont. She was making up significant ground at the end but ran out of room at the shortest distance she’d run at since 2018. Now, Brown is stretching her out to 1 3/8 miles, and this feels like the real deal. Brown recruits Irad Ortiz to ride and has excellent numbers off of all sorts of layoffs. If she isn’t favored, I’d be surprised and rather pleased.
3- Dyna Passer
She ran pretty well in the River Memories last time out, and that race was likely a bit tougher than the one she’s facing this time around. She’s one of the best runners in Thomas Albertrani’s barn and has proven to be a pro at these longer distances. I don’t think she’s the best here, but I can understand why she may be favored at post time.
5- Pallas Athene
Her last race was a serious distance test off the layoff, but I think she passed it very well with a career-high 82 BSF. I don’t know if it was Terranova’s plan to keep her going this long, but he certainly can’t shorten her up now. On paper, she ran just as well as Dyna Passer, and while I don’t think she’s the better horse of that pair, I do think she’ll be a little undervalued in her second start off the layoff.
4- Hungry Kitten
This is another filly that faced a serious distance test last time out, and she also passed it with flying colors. Shug McGaughey knew what he was doing, and the plan worked very well with Jose Ortiz aboard. She’s a very solid runner that’s just proven she can handle longer distance, but she’s exiting a pretty weak race compared to what other runners here have been up against. I’d like to see her get some more experience at this level before I trust her.
Order: 6 3 5 4
I think Eliade has been prepared in excellent fashion by Chad Brown, and I think this is the race where he’ll be making his move with this runner. Dyna Passer and Pallas Athene are both exiting a very tough race in which they both performed well, and I think they’ll benefit against an easier field. Meanwhile, I think Hungry Kitten may be a little overmatched here, but she’s professional and has demonstrated an affinity for this distance.
Race 8
New York Stallion Series (Restricted) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
It’s not a big field, but there are some very good NY-breds here. What makes this race interesting, however, are a few quirks that made me think. First, two fillies will face off against four males here, which is as close to an equally gendered race as I’ve ever seen. Second, Jolting Joe is registered as a KY-bred competing in the NYSS, which threw me as a strange loophole of some sort. My top four in this fun feature:
6- Jolting Joe
He’s still a maiden, but really in name only. As a two-year-old, his three losses came against Art Collector, Graceful Kitten, and King Guillermo, who have all gone on to win against stakes competition. In his three-year-old debut, he ran very well in defeat against Parkland, another talented horse. All of these races were in open company against some top notch horses, and now he’s entering a restricted stakes. The fact that he’s faced tougher competition against maidens makes him a very tempting option, even if he hasn’t yet broken through with a victory just yet. I think he takes a step forward here for Michael Maker.
1- Fresco
This filly will try to take on the boys here after breaking her maiden in a NYSS stakes last time out. She was much the best that day and could have won any way she pleased, but it is nice to see that she closed into such a slow pace. She may get a hotter pace up front this time around, and Christophe Clement and Irad Ortiz have been unstoppable at Saratoga thus far. I wouldn’t be surprised by this one.
4- Turbo Drive
I’d be a little surprised by this one. Michael Maker’s other runner here didn’t really put the pieces together until his last race, when he won a wide open statebred allowance at 17-1. He’d essentially have to take two big steps in a row to win here, and although he knows his way around the track by now, I’m not sure he fits here.
5- Dream Bigger
I strongly dislike when horses that have never tried a surface before are listed as favorites on the morning line. This colt is a very talented dirt horse, but there’s a key word missing there. He’s never raced on turf before, and now the betting will start at 2-1 to wager on his ability to compete with some very talented turf runners. I’m not saying it’s impossible, because he is very good on dirt and that ability can transfer over. However, that doesn’t always happen, and when a complete failure is just as likely as a victory, I feel very uncomfortable with my win bet at 2-1.
Order: 6 1 4 5
Jolting Joe and Fresco are clearly the two to beat here, and I look forward to seeing this small Battle of the Sexes play out in a pretty nondescript statebred stakes. Turbo Drive is clearly an outsider, and Dream Bigger isn’t worth a wager at short odds.
Race 9
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
5- Elusive Ruler
Ian Wilkes is ridiculously dangerous lately, and he has a very qualified favorite here anyway. After breaking his maiden in his turf debut, he ran very well in allowance competition. Despite his best efforts, however, he seemed a little out of his depth, which explains the drop in class here. I think this is a great spot for what appears to be a very dependable runner.
6- Catorat
This gelding is exiting a highly competitive claiming race, in which he finished third behind turf pros Bray and Mandate. He closed into a very slow pace that day, and while he’ll probably struggle with a meandering pace up front again here, he will be getting a softer field. In his second race off the layoff for David Donk, I think he can build on a very solid debut at four.
8- King’s Honor
I thought this gelding was sneaky last time out, but he struggled that day chasing two leaders on a biased turf course. The things I liked about him that day apply here as well: he ran against some very classy runners at two and hasn’t yet been tested at three. I can excuse that first race off the layoff for a variety of reasons, and while he loses Luis Saez, he he regains Javier Castellano who rode him in three of his four starts as a juvenile. Brittany Russell isn’t really a big name around here, but I think she has a very sneaky option at a big price.
10- Swordsman
I don’t care for this runner too much, as he hasn’t run in over a year and his only turf start was an unmitigated disaster. However, Christophe Clement seems to know what he’s doing lately, and with a runner off the layoff, recruiting Joel Rosario and putting him on the grass gives the impression of a serious attempt to win. The odds may be inappropriately short though.