For this Thursday card at Saratoga, I’m once again going with what I’m calling “streamlined analysis,” because “skimpy analysis” is a little effeminate. Tomorrow, I’ll be back in my home base in New York, and full analysis will return. However, I do believe that this is a viable alternative for solid analysis in a rush. I’ll leave it to readers to decide.
Race 1
New York Turf Writers Handicap (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 2 3/8 Miles over Hurdles
6- Optimus Prime (Fr)
5- Moscato (GB)
3- Redicean (GB)
8- Gibralfaro (Ire)
Order: 6 5 3 8
This race will likely come down to Optimus Prime and Moscato, as it did the last time they faced last July. In that race, I gave Moscato the edge entering his second start off the layoff, but now Optimus Prime will be getting that advantage off a freshener. I think he’s poised to turn the tables. Redicean and Gibralfaro were also-rans last time they faced the top pair, and I don’t have any reason to suspect improvement.
Race 2
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
2- Tonal Verse
6- Thankful
1- Simply Sweet
4- Heavenly Sis
Order: 2 6 1 4
There’s something sneaky about this race, and of course, Graham Motion is involved. After a haphazard effort off the layoff on an unfamiliar surface and ridiculous distance at Belmont, he shipped his filly to Laurel, where she lost at a mile on the dirt. It’s strange then, for him to feel confident enough to ship her up here at a longer distance, but I think that’s been the plan all along. The horse has a 411 Tomlinson for the distance, and Motion strikes with Javier Castellano at an alarming rate at Saratoga. I think this is the start the trainer’s been preparing for. Thankful and Simply Sweet are both lightly raced and can make a run, and Heavenly Sis has been consistent in defeat lately and may not handle this much ground well. My focus will be on the Motion runner at a bit of a price.
Race 3
$25,000 Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
5- Awesome Alana
1- Out of Trouble
2- First Appeal
6- Goodbye Brockley
Order: 5 1 2 6
This is a largely unappealing race. Awesome Alana has only raced on the turf once before, but if she can repeat that performance here, I believe she’ll manage to win for Linda Rice, despite the fact that Linda’s often been entering runners on the turf off layoffs before switching them back to dirt. Out of Trouble is a qualified runner that’s taken a step back lately, which makes him a little hard to trust on a class drop. First Appeal feels like more of a sprinter to me, while Goodbye Brockley is an honest runner that’s clearly lost a step.
Race 4
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
8- Threepointninenine
5- Lorcan
2- Freudian Analyst
7- Disciplinarian
Order: 8 5 2 7
Threepointninenine lost to several of these runners in his last start, but performed well while dueling up front for the lead. He likely won’t have to fight nearly as hard this time around, and I believe he’ll manage to turn the tables. However, Lorcan is an extremely intriguing long shot to consider here as well. He’s had some terrible luck in his last two starts, and it creates the illusion that he can’t handle turf when that’s simply not the case. Moreover, he’s cutting back to a distance for which he has a 387 Tomlinson. He’s an extremely interesting price for Bruce Levine. Freudian Analyst ran better in defeat against Disciplinarian last time out, and on a purely trip handicapping basis, he’s the better runner despite his subpar connections.
Race 5
$20,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
6- Leaveuwithasmile
1- Customerexperience
3- Mosienko
5- Sirenic
Order: 6 1 3 5
Leaveuwithasmile has superior speed figures to the rest of this field, and Danny Gargan wins with half of his new claiming acquisitions. That’s a very difficult combination to beat, and I won’t try to.
Race 6
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
8- Jack of Clubs
3- Red Mule
5- Big Wonder
2- Future Book
Order: 8 3 5 2
I don’t really know what happened last time out with Jack of Clubs, but Michael Miceli somehow hangs on to John Velasquez for the mount. The fact that they never work together means that he’s signing on for the horse, and that’s a big deal. Red Mule seems like a sneaky option could run well after getting rained off last time out. Naipaul Chatterpaul should never have the morning line favorite at Saratoga, and I’m betting that he’s squandered Big Wonder’s recent form. Future Book is trained by David Donk and Irad Ortiz, which is somehow a very bad combination. In addition, Donk is 0-for-38 stretching horses from a sprint to a route.
Race 7
Tale of the Cat Stakes (Ungraded) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
1- T Loves a Fight
2- Stan the Man
4- My Boy Tate
5- Binkster
Order: 1 2 4 5
Despite the small field, I think there should be a reasonable amount of pace here, which should benefit T Loves a Fight coming off a very solid recent performance. Stan the Man May be hurt by the same scenario, but he’s shown stalking ability in the past and is following up after a solid runner-up performance behind Firenze Fire in the G2 True North. My Boy Tate also improved in his last start, but didn’t do enough to defeat T Loves a Fight that day. Binkster is a step below these in terms of class, but on speed, I don’t see a reason why he can’t have a say here beyond a suicidal pace duel, which put him fourth.
Race 8
$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
7- Lead Guitar
5- Speightstown Gal
4- The Important One
2- Fetching
Order: 7 5 4 2
Lead Guitar and Speightstown Gal have demonstrated proficiency at this distance and deserve all of the attention they’re receiving on the morning line. The Improtant One needed every single inch of space to win last time out, and going shorter won’t help his case, while Fetching seems to like running even longer.
Race 9
$25,000 Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
7- Just Right
2- We Should Talk
1- Dark Money
5- Eye Luv Lulu
Order: 7 2 1 5
In his first start off the layoff, Just Right was defeated by 45-1 shot and fellow runner Manifest Destiny. I think that’s a fluke, and I expect him to take a step forward in his second start off the layoff. It’s great to see Jeffrey Englehart reclaiming We Should Talk, and the sheer desirability of this runner by numerous trainer makes him very live here. Dark Money is a bit of a tricky option because I’m not sure if the class drop is a positive factor here. I’m including Eye Luv Lulu for fun, because he’s been scratched at least six times since I’ve started writing, and I’m still waiting for his first start since February. The former Jason Servis trainee is the strangest horse in New York right now.