Saratoga Analysis: Thursday, August 13, 2020

There’s not much to discuss about this card on this gloomy Thursday. The racing is  largely inoffensive, the worst case scenario at a fantastic track like Saratoga, though I’m not sure that the payoffs will be ones to break the bank.

It’s definitely the type of card a handicapper should play on paper to keep their skills sharp. I wouldn’t be too interested in actually playing it outside of a value play here and there. Let’s take a look.

Note: All races are up.

Race 1

$50,000 Handicap for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 2 1/16 Miles over Hurdles

Another day, another hurdle race, and this is a pretty tough one. My top four:

1- Elucidation (Ire)
1A- Must See The Doc (GB)

Elucidation is the more interesting in this entry, as he’s the only runner in the race with a victory this year. He defeated several runners that he’ll be facing today in that start, including his entrymate, and the ones he hasn’t already defeated don’t seem all that intimidating. He’s the one to beat.

6- New Member (Ire)

Back in 2018, this gelding was a very professional runner that could always be depended on for a solid run. He hadn’t run since, however, until his return race last June, in which he didn’t finish. He was very talented at one point and a return to form is technically possible, but he’s very tough to trust here.

3- Cracker Factory (GB)

This gelding is making his 2020 debut, and at five years old, is actually pretty spry in comparison to his fellow runners. Jack Fisher knows how to prepare horses off layoffs, and this one may be worth a look at a price.

4- Iranistan

Here’s another runner that was extremely dangerous in 2018 before a layoff. In four starts since, he hasn’t been nearly as effective, and while back form is encouraging, it’s also difficult to wager on.

Order: 1/1A 6 3 4

Elucidation is the only runner in the race that’s come close to winning recently, which may be the threshold in this weak field. New Member and Iranistan were both very good in past seasons but have shown very little since, while Cracker Factory hasn’t shown much to begin with.

 

Race 2

$60,000 Maiden Special Weight (Restricted) for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

This maiden race doesn’t appear to be anything special, but it’s obviously hard to tell, and the trainers are bringing their runners up here for a reason. Three fillies will be facing off against five males here, which is always a facet of racing that I find very interesting. My top four:

8- Malibu Luna

Her first race was encouraging because she seemed interested in running, which is what I look for in Bill Mott firsters that probably weren’t sent out with much urgency. His runners tend to get faster on subsequent starts, but the fact that she was engaged in her first start tells me that she’ll be the type to take a step forward. Experience can be very important in races like this, and this is the only filly here with a legitimate start.

5- Lutescoot N Boogie

Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana team up on this filly that’s been running fairly well in the morning and has a 366 Tomlinson for the distance. Asmussen’s good with firsters and has had some really impressive ones this meet, and while I don’t necessarily think this is one of them, she seems to have a solid chance.

3- Boss Bear

Michael Maker isn’t very successful with firsters, but Irad Ortiz signs on to ride. The colt hasn’t been stunning in the morning and only has a 345 Tomlinson for the distance, but this race isn’t too deep and he can respond well on first asking against other runners.

6- Command Central

Dale Romana hasn’t had much luck with his Saratoga shippers this meet, and he isn’t all that successful with firsters either. This colt isn’t remarkable on paper in anyway, but in a restricted race like this, it may come down to trainer ability. 

Order: 8 5 3 6

Malibu Luna is a deserving favorite based on her first performance, a competitive edge over her inexperienced foes. Lutescoot N Boogie, Boss Bear, and Command Central all appear to be promising firsters for top-notch trainers, which makes them contenders here.

 

Race 3

$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

This is the type of race that I really enjoy, because the turf runners at this level are talented and dependable, which makes them easier to handicap. My top four:

1- Olendon (Fr)

Based on her last race against fellow runners Turf War and Lost Ticket, this filly is much better than those rivals despite only finishing ahead of them by a few lengths. She contended near the front along with very quick opening fractions, such that the front runner faded badly late. She held well, and while she couldn’t quite hold off Lady Lawyer, she managed to outrun the other two closers with determination. In a position where she was at a disadvantage, she was still better than them, so with any luck this time around, the result won’t be so close.

7- Turf War

This is the first of two fillies that lost to Olendon last time out, and of those two, she ran the better race in the stretch. It was her first start off the layoff and in her four-year-old debut, she nearly equaled her career-best performance, a win in an ungraded stakes last year. For all the things Christophe Clement does well, his horses don’t do as well in their second starts off layoffs, which is honestly a little mystifying to me. Logically though, this is a talented runner that responded well to a freshener to start the year, and it’s very feasible that she takes a step forward here.

3- Lost Ticket

I clearly think the Lady Lawyer race is live here, because this is the third runner to come out of that start. She finished behind Olendon and Turf War that day, and she didn’t have much of an excuse for doing so. That being said, she’s clearly a talented runner with consistent ability for Bill Mott, so she’s definitely worth consideration in exotic bets.

2- Kitten’s Covergirl

This mare has experience running very short sprints down at Gulfstream, and while she never won in four attempts, she always held her own and never finished outside the top four. She’s been running longer distances for Mertkan Kantarmaci since shipping north to New York, but now must adjust again to the shorter Saratoga sprint distance. I think she can handle it,and while I don’t like her on top, I’m considering her in bets underneath.

Order: 1 7 3 2

Based on her last start, I think Olendon is even better than the result on paper suggests, and I expect her to improve in this start. However, Turf War is a very professional runner that can take a step forward in her second start of the year. Lost Ticket and Kitten’s Covergirl will likely give good accounts of themselves, but I don’t really see them taking down my top two.

 

Race 4

$50,000 Starter Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt

This is a very tricky race between some evenly matched opponents, and a wild card is also there to throw a wrench in the handicapping process. My top four:

4- First Rate

He finished behind fellow runner Blood Moon in his last start, but I don’t believe that’s the very best effort in his ability. His fellow runner got away with an uncontested lead that day, which obviously made him difficult to run down. I’m not sure how much pace will be present in this race, but I don’t think Blood Moon will get as lucky this time around, and with Irad Ortiz staying, I feel encouraged to take this gelding in the top spot.

6- Grit and Glory

The question for this runner in his last start was whether or not he would return to his form earlier in the year. He did very well, winning by a neck to break the final claiming condition with a 76 BSF. Based on speed figures, this race appears to be more of a lateral move for him, and Jose Lezcano steps in for Luis Cardenas. I think he has an excellent chance in this race.

2- Blood Moon

The two best starts of this colt’s life are his two most recent dirt starts, ones in which he gained a clear early lead but gave them up late. He probably should have won both of them under the conditions, which is why I’m going against him here. 

1- Heirloom Kitten

I don’t know what to make of this gelding’s last start. On a sloppy track against some subpar runners, he dominated to break his maiden with an 86 BSF. That figure would make him better than this field by daylight, but I’m not sure if he can repeat it. Sometimes, flukes like that occur, and I don’t believe that Linda Rice would have entered him for $20,000 if she thought he was regularly capable of it. I’ll take a chance against him regardless, because he’ll probably be overbet.

Order: 4 6 2 1

First Rate and Grit and Glory are my clear top two contenders, as I think they’ll run similar races successfully from midpack. Blood Moon hasn’t managed to keep an early lead yet despite several advantages, and I’m going against him because I don’t believe this trip will be as easy for him. Heirloom Kitten is a very confusing entrant here that I’ll have to go against and hope the speed figure last time out was a fluke.

 

Race 5

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

This isn’t a very competitive field, but it is an interesting one. There are a couple of interesting value plays accompanying a weak favorite, which makes for an ambitious top four:

6- She So Naughty

This isn’t my most orthodox pick, but in weak fields like this, seeing a plan in place is preferable to betting a proven commodity. After getting this filly from Todd Pletcher’s barn, Rudy Rodriguez was immediately interested in entering her on the turf. Her first start off the layoff was rained off, and she still did well under the circumstances to finish second. Rodriguez is putting her back on the turf here, and I don’t love anything, so I’ll take her here for the upside potential. 

8- Big Red Girl

This is a nice name for a chestnut filly. She’s only raced on turf once, but it was a very valiant effort in which she overcame a very tough trip off a layoff to finish third. I don’t really trust Charlie Baker all that much, but I do trust Joel Rosario quite a bit. This is a very interesting value play in a rather weak race.

12- Dream Chasing

This filly’s last race will likely earn her favoritism, which makes sense. Christophe Clement and doesn’t go to Manny Franco for his most pressing assignments, but they work well enough together. She’s clearly qualified, but she was qualified to win last time out with a clear early lead that she gave up late. She had a much more favorable post that day as well, and I’m not sure if this will come together for her as well as it did late time out.

7- Frenchie Frou Frou

Terrible name. Gary Sciacca has come to terms with the fact that he has a turf sprinter here. He’s cutting her back after she found some success going short and then struggled in a route. Junior Alvarado isn’t sticking around, but Tyler Gaffalione is a fair replacement. She could fight for a minor prize here.

Order: 6 8 12 7

My analysis here isn’t something I would bet a tuition payment on, but it’s how I would play this kind of race. She So Naughty and Big Red Girl are interesting outsiders for different reasons, and I’m considering them both for good runs. Dream Chasing is obviously very qualified, but she really did get a favorable trip last time out, one I don’t think she can replicate.

 

Race 6

$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt

It’s a shame that races like these can’t attract more horses, because the very best runners deserve more than this sort of race before entering stakes competition. My top four in this five-horse field:

1- Risky Mandate

Her last start puts her in a tier above her fellow runners here, as she finished three lengths behind Indian Pride and Blamed in an ungraded stakes. Those two runners would defeat this field easily, and she may do so as well. Her recent speed figures are superior, and if every horse runs back to their last race, she’ll win here easily. The distance isn’t all that concerning either, because I don’t believe Tom Amoss would reach with this runner.

5- Off Topic

This filly is tricky because of her last start. She’s only raced once in 2020, when she was profoundly disappointing in an optional claimer in February at Gulfstream. Last year, she was stellar and held her own in graded stakes competition, but she hasn’t run one of those great races since September 2019. If she can return to form, she’ll win, but the layoff and her most recent start combine to create an option that can’t really be trusted.

4- Foxtail

This mare is primarily a turf horse, but in three starts on dirt, she hasn’t yet lost. Her last start was scheduled for the turf but was rained off, and on a fast track at this distance, she crushed a four-horse field by nearly seven lengths. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Mertkan Kantarmaci, a very effective combination, and she seems to possess the versatility to run well here. The one issue is that she doesn’t appear to be fast enough.

2- Miss Marissa

Her biggest asset in this race will be her early speed, which she used to great effect when taking an allowance at Monmouth last time out. However, the connections are weak and she simply doesn’t appear fast enough. She’ll be involved early, but I doubt she’s close at the end.

Order: 1 5 4 2

Risky Mandate is the only horse that has proven she can perform at this level, and while Off Topic could very well re-establish herself as the force she was as a three-year-old, I’d like to see her get a start before I wager on such a proposition. Foxtail is an outsider, and Miss Marissa is even further out of the picture.

 

Race 7

$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

This is what racing would look like without Brown, Pletcher, and Clement on the turf. For all of the complaining that handicappers partake in about these super trainers, I have to admit that this race is a little weak without their other-worldly equestrian powers. My top four:

10- Chulainn

All of the top trainers are absent from this race, which opens the door for some trainers looking to get on the board. Graham Motion hasn’t been as effective at Saratoga as he was at Belmont this past spring, but I think he has a runner here. The colt has a 409 Tomlinson for the distance, and while his workouts aren’t anything special, Jose Ortiz’s addition is a pretty big deal. I think he’ll run well in his debut.

7- Daggerboard

Like Motion, Brad Cox is also struggling at the Saratoga meet, but he has an attractive runner here. This colt has been pretty swift in his morning workouts, and while he only has a 316 Tomlinson for the distance, Javier Castellano is taking the mount. He seems like the type of Cox runner that could succeed in this spot.

2- Thin White Duke

This gelding keeps taking a ton of money, and I keep betting against him and winning. I’ve heard the argument that he’s better suited to the turf, and I accept the logic that he may turn out to be a capable runner, but I’m going to keep pointing to Philip Gleaves’ 0-for-everything statistics, from two-year-olds to turf sprints to maiden special weights. I haven’t been wrong yet.

8- I’m Blaming You

Doug O’Neill has really struggled up here thus far, but Reddam Racing brings a firster for him here with a 408 Tomlinson for the distance. The colt certainly has a chance, but I’d like to see him get a start first.

Order: 10 7 2 8

Picking between firsters is akin to rolling dice, but I’ll take Graham Motion’s runner over those of Brad Cox and Doug O’Neill. Thin White Duke is going to beat me at some point, but he keeps getting bet down and I keep picking against him successfully.

 

Race 8

$50,000 Starter Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

This is a fun race that I would usually do very well with. However, it seems that there’s something off about my outlooks at the exact moment. I suspect that there may be a bias on the track, but until I figure it out for sure, I’ll have to provide analysis as directly as I can. My top four:

6- Bray

This colt’s last start was phenomenal, as he kicked away very cleanly to defeat fellow runner Mandate, who went on to win his next start. He claimed away from Christophe Clement and entered Rudy Rodriguez’s barn, and while that is a downgrade, I don’t see why it should affect his performance. He’s proven to be extremely effective at this distance, and Irad Ortiz takes the mount for the first time. 

3- Mandate

He ran into Bray two starts back, and that proved to be a little tough. He found a slightly easier field in his next start and took full advantage, improving to win going away. He’ll have to deal with Bray again here, but based on his last performance, he may be better prepared this time around. Jose Ortiz returns to ride for Todd Pletcher, and I’m not counting out a victory for this runner.

2- Turn of Events

I feel I have to make space in my top four for this runner, based solely on his early pace. It took him a very long time to break his maiden, but he got the job done in his last start against open company. Jose Ortiz will not return to ride, but Luis Saez has had some success with him in the past. The key, however, is that none of the other contenders have any pace to speak of. He’s probably my fifth favorite horse in the race, but he has an edge that the others lack.

5- Battalion

This colt’s last race wasn’t as flashy as some of his counterparts’, but it was impressive nonetheless. Starting 10 lengths off the lead, he made up solid ground under very slow fractions to finish second behind Winning Factor. This race may have similar fractions up front that will hurt his chances, but he may be faster than he appears on paper.

Order: 6 3 2 5

Bray and Mandate are clearly the two most talented runners in this race, and I think their last race against one another should repeat itself, though I’m not sure if my order is correct. Turn of Events is dangerous because he has pace in a race where the rest of them don’t. Battalion will eventually turn a few heads if he finds a race with fast fractions, but until then, he’ll just have to hold his own in starts like this one.

 

Race 9

Union Avenue Stakes (Ungraded) for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

This is a showdown between two of the best statebred fillies around right now, as Ratajkowski and Newly Minted have had very impressive careers in the Empire State. That’s very exciting to a horse racing fan, and very uninteresting to a handicapped. I lean toward the excited side of things. My top four:

1- Ratajkowski

She’s a lightly raced six-year-old, but she’s been brilliant in eight starts. She’s only raced once this year, and while she wasn’t at the top of her game and had to duel, she still managed to hold off fellow runner Mrs. Orb at the wire. She’ll be making her second start of the year in this start, and she’ll likely be near the front along with Carrera Cat and Newly Minted. However, she’ll get the inside, and I think she’ll be able to fend off both of them with a favorable inside trip. She loves to win, and she has an excellent chance here.

6- Newly Minted

This filly was really rolling earlier this year but couldn’t secure a victory in two starts. Every now and again, she shows up with a completely dominant performance, but when she runs up against legitimate competition, she tends to compete and come up a little short. She’s usually forwardly placed but may have to concede the lead to Carrera Cat and Ratajkowski. This could benefit her by providing a stalking trip, and Linda Rice usually sends her top runners off of layoffs. She’s another serious contender here.

3- Mrs. Orb

Coming off a layoff, this mare improved dramatically to come up just short behind fellow runner Ratajkowski. It was a really solid performance that qualifies her for higher levels of racing, but I’m not sure she’ll get the same scenario this time around. She caught Ratajkowski in a very vulnerable situation that day, and while she may get a similar pace setup, she’ll now have to try and pass her in her second start of the year. As if that wasn’t enough, she’ll also have to outrun Newly Minted. It would be asking a lot.

5- Carrera Cat

She’s a contender in this race based on her very quick early speed, but it appears that her best races are from the summer of last year. That could be good or bad; she could just love Saratoga, or it could mean that her form deteriorated and will carry over to 2020. Regardless, she does her best running when loose on the lead, and I don’t see that happening here. It’s also sad to see Rajiv Maragh have to surrender one of his better mounts.

Order: 1 6 3 5

Ratajkowski seems to be very well prepared by Graham Motion for this start, and the fact that she won her last start in a tough position makes her future prospects very encouraging. Newly Minted, however, is another powerhouse that could very easily respond off the bench with another excellent performance. Beyond them, long shot Mrs. Orb will hope to pick up the pieces of a potential duel up front, while Carrera Cat will have a lot of trouble keeping up late.

Race 10

$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf

This is Emma Moquin (sister of Patrick) filling in because he is otherwise occupied. I make no promises. Let’s get into it.

7- Chocolate Cookie

I’m a big fan of this jockey-trainer combination and I find it hard to bet against it. Although this horse’s lack of experience isn’t ideal, I still believe that this horse has an excellent chance of winning. Her workouts are average, which is to be expected.

10- Data Analytics

I am once again a fan of Casstellano and Brown.and this horse has had pretty good workouts.I wish the horse wouldv’e done a little better in his last race, but I feel good that the horse hs a little bit of experience under her belt. 

1- Dancing Kiki

This horse has Dylan Davis on him, which is very ‘eh”. Davis can’t seem to get a win off this horse. This horse however makes up for it with solid speed figures and a solid jockey trainer percentage. Overall not my favorite in the race, but definitely has a shot.

4- Two Cent Tootsie

Saez isn’t my personal favorite, but is a very solid jockey. It should be noted that Jose Ortiz jumped off this horse to ride the 7, Chocolate Cookie. This horse has great speed figures and seems to have started to find a running style that works for him. This horse also has great workouts. 

Order: 7, 10, 1, 4

Usually Pat writes a little blurb here, but the race goes off in 10 minutes, so I’m going to skip it. I hope you had a lucky day.  Please pray that I won’t have to do this again. Have a great night.