With a new day comes a new and exciting card from Saratoga Racecourse. Beyond the G2 Baruch later in the day, there are several excellent allowance fields that may provide bettors with some value. It’s Sunday cards like these that separate Saratoga from every other track in the country.
Note: The first six races are up, the last four are inbound.
Race 1
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
The main contenders in this race have already faced off against one another, which makes this an important trip handicapping race. I don’t believe the order of finish in their last encounter will be the same as today’s order:
5- Silver Token
I believe the top three runners here are coming out of the same race, and if I had to pick between them, I would say this one ran the worst of the three. However, that doesn’t mean that his performance was bad, as he was out of touch early and closed very well in the stretch to finish third behind More Like It and in front of Smite. It was his first race off the layoff, and it appeared as though he was plodding along at certain points. He has the freshener now, Horacio DePaz has been solid at Saratoga so far, and Jose Lezcano wants to ride him again. I think he takes a step forward here.
8- Smite
He had to duel last time out but did well under pressure, kicking clear in the stretch before getting run down by Sanctuary City and fellow runners Silver Token and More Like It. That was his first start since last November, and it was an improvement over his two-year-old form. Jeremiah Englehart and Luis Saez are sticking together on this one, and while I’m not sure if he’ll get the lead this time around, a stalking trip may benefit him as well.
6- More Like It
In his second start off the layoff, this gelding improved in a very solid performance, closing to finish second behind Sanctuary City, who finished second yesterday in his first test against winners. He finished ahead of fellow runners Silver Token and Smite that day, but I’m not sure he’ll have the same luck today. Both of those runners make a compelling case that they’ll improve, while this horse seems rather set in his ways. It doesn’t help that Bruce Brown is 3% in turf sprints and 0-for-4 with Jose Ortiz. He could win, but I’d rather go with others here.
1- Neuro
This Robert Ribaudo colt is definitely an outsider in this race, but I’m including him because I see some upside. He hasn’t raced since last November, and in that route start, he performed well against a few runners that turned out to be solid as three-year-olds. I don’t know if he’ll like this sprint distance and Ribaudo is 0-for-9 with horses coming off 180+ day layoffs, but that’s why he’s 12-1 on the morning line. If anything, at least I can see a plan that I like: they may run him here as a freshener before stretching him back out in his next start. Maybe he’s worth keeping an eye on going forward at this level.
Order: 5 8 6 1
I think Silver Token and Smite are both likely to take a step forward, which puts them in a better position this time despite More Like It’s strong finish last time out. Silver Token gets the edge because I slightly prefer the connections in this specific spot.
Race 2
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a light statebred maiden race, and It’s the type of race that might fool some handicappers when the winner makes an appearance somewhere else. My top four:
6- Effinity
He’s the only colt in this field with experience, which is a major advantage. He ran well in that race as well, dueling against the favorite and putting him away before getting run down in the stretch. Brad Cox is 25% with second time starters and Luis Saez stays.
2- Judge N Jury
Danny Gargan isn’t usually great with first time starters, but this isn’t a stellar group of trainers. He was a $200,000 purchase at the Saratoga auction last year and has a 387 Tomlinson for the distance. Manny Franco hops aboard as well, and his work tab suggests he’ll be ready to go on first asking.
5- Arrowheart
John Kimmel wins with 3% of his first time starters, but I think he’s trying here. His colt has been training well in the morning, and has a 365 Tomlinson for the distance. More importantly, he’s recruiting Joel Rosario to ride, a jockey he wins with 24% of the time (2-for-4 at Saratoga). That 3% stat is still a little hard to stomach, but it does imply that he wins sometimes, and this may be such an occasion.
4- Bellamy Dolce
Gary Gullo and Ricardo Santana have never worked together before, and while I don’t think this is the start of a beautiful friendship or anything, Gullo is strictly profitable with firsters. The colt only has three official workouts, which is either a bad sign or a sneaky sign, depending on the handicapper. I don’t really expect him to do much here, but it’s not everyday that I can shoehorn a Casablanca reference into horse racing analysis, so I’d say this is time well spent.
Order: 6 2 5 4
Effinity is the only runner in this race with experience, and as a result, he qualifies most for the top spot. From there, several trainers with poor first start statistics are taking their chance, and I’ve tried differentiating between them, though it’s rather tricky.
Race 3
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
As claiming races go, I can’t really ask for better than this. There are several runners in this race that are just short of the allowance level up here, which makes it a better race than it has any right to be. My top four:
10- Road to Meath
Visually, this gelding was the most impressive of the main contenders in his last start, and what I observed was reinforced by a superior 86 BSF. While most of these horses are coming from Belmont, he hasn’t raced since March and made that start down at Gulfstream, where he finished second behind Opry, a former Breeders’ Cup runner. There’s always a chance that he’ll need a start off the layoff, but I think that he’s a step above these if he returns to form. If I were at the track, I would ask one of my more experienced handicapping friends what it means when an older horse is gelded, but I’ll just have to consider it a non-factor rather than a bad sign.
6- Chantry Flats
This horse made his first start of the year last month when he finished fourth behind fellow runner Shootin the Breeze. It was an underwhelming performance similar to his last start of 2019 when he took a step back off his maiden win. That maiden win took nine attempts, despite the fact that he ran too well to lose on multiple occasions. It sounds like I’m being critical, but I actually like this runner making his second start off the layoff. Weirdly enough, Manny Franco seems to get the most out of him and returns to ride for a fourth time for Michelle Nevin. I like his chances here.
9- Mandate
He was no match for Bray last time out, but he’s certainly competitive in this field. In fact, he’s run fairly well against two superior fields since moving on to races against older horses. Now, the runners he’s facing today aren’t significantly worse, but what was once a fight for second place is now a fair fight for the top spot. That being said, he seems a little maxed out in terms of speed figures, and he’ll need to improve to take down some of his counterparts.
5- Shootin the Breeze
This colt ran against Chantry Flats last time out, defeating his foe that day by a quarter length. He was claimed by Michael Maker in that race, which ensures that Irad Ortiz will be his new jockey. He’s an incredibly consistent horse, and that’s good and bad, because he hasn’t won a race since January 2019. He’s definitely competitive here, but I’m not sure there’s any reason to suspect improvement.
Order: 10 6 9 5
Road to Meath appears to be the best horse in this field, and while the layoff is a little concerning, he should be able to handle it. From there, the next three are very evenly matched, but I’m taking Chantry Flats over Mandate and Shootin the Breeze because I like the manner in which he’s been prepared.
Race 4
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
I think this small field comes down to two runners, and I’m ignoring the speed figures a little as I make my final decision between the pair:
2- Victory Boulevard
He would have needed perfect conditions to compete against horses like Art Collector and Wrecking Crew. Instead, he broke awkwardly from the far outside post and gave the leaders a 15-length head start. Despite that, he still ran wonderfully, making a very bold move to get back into contention and holding on to fifth place. People don’t often realize this when they flippantly dismiss Beyer Speed Figures, but the key is often to find competitive horses that replicate or exceed their previous figures. Based on his last performance against that level of competition, this gelding should have something better than a 70 this time around.
6- The Great Dansky
This colt has performed well in two starts against older horses, and he has a valid excuse for a dip in performance last race. After stumbling at the start and losing his lane in the stretch that day, he still ran well enough to remain in contention and finish fourth. He’s been training sharply recently, and the only thing to dislike about him here will be the odds.
5- Cryptographer
His first race off the layoff is better than it looks, as he was chasing in a race that set up for early speed. He was also pretty wide around the turn, which shouldn’t be an issue today. Romero Maragh is at Monmouth now, so Ricardo Santana takes the reins for Rudy Rodriguez. In his second start off the layoff, he stands a chance of improving at a distance he’s really appreciated in the past.
1- Justin Front
He’s an outsider here, but Chris Englehart and Junior Alvarado don’t usually waste time working together. His last race back in March was strange, with two long shots setting the early pace and holding up well at the end. He’s clearly a step below here, but he’s probably a little better than he looks on paper.
Order: 2 6 5 1
Victory Boulevard and The Great Dansky are fairly evenly matched, and I’m taking VB on the basis that her competition in the past has been superior. Cryptographer and Justin Front are outsiders that can compete for a minor prize.
Race 5
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
These look like some pretty promising turf runners here, but as usual, they’re always difficult to analyze. My hesitant top four:
2- Outadore
Wesley Ward has two runners in here but has shifted Irad Ortiz over to this first time starter. He wins 30% of the time with Ortiz and 29% of the time with firsters, and this $290,000 purchase is clearly being pointed to the turf based on his work tab.
7- Pitaman
Graham Motion left this colt in a race off the turf at Belmont last month, where he finished in a distant third place. The goal wasn’t to win, but to run. When looking at him in the paddock, Maggie Wolfendale said that he was a turf horse through and through, and now he returns to his preferred surface with experience racing against other horses. I like the way that he’s been prepared for this start.
1- Mad Maddy
This filly will try her luck against the boys and the turf for the first time. She’s been running very well on the dirt, so Asmussen’s move to the turf is probably considerate instead of desperate. American Pharoah offspring have proven effective on the turf in a limited sample size, and if she can transition smoothly, she can definitely have a say here.
10- River Tiber
Wesley Ward is excellent with first time starters, but isn’t nearly as good second time out. This colt was heavily favored last time out, and ran well but finished fourth at the wire. I think he was held a little on the backstretch, as Irad Ortiz didn’t want him to rush to the lead, and that may have stifled him a little in the stretch run. He has a race under him now and could have put some pieces together, but it’s strange to see Ward out Ortiz on his other horse in the race.
Order: 2 7 1 10
Outadore and River Tiber are stablemates, but it’s very clear that one is getting preferential treatment here. Pitaman is a turf runner that has a start under his belt and is finally running on his preferred surface for Graham Motion. I don’t know what surface Mad Maddy prefers, but Asmussen seems to have a few ideas.
Race 6 (FULL ANALYSIS)
$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
Oh, you lucky dogs. This is a wide open contest, so I’m offering full analysis because I find it entertaining to talk about. In post position order:
1- Jazzique (Ire)
In her first start off the layoff, she understandably struggled to make up ground on the front runners on a heavily biased track. Chad Brown’s prepared her well since then, and she returns here for her second start off the layoff. I don’t think the distance is a question, nor do I believe that she’s taken a step back from two to three. She just needed a race, and she should bounce back in this start.
2- Eye of a Soldier
The move from Timothy Hills’ barn to Bill Mott’s is statistically lateral, but the difference in my head between those two trainers is astounding. This filly hasn’t raced since last October, when she outran her odds in the G2 Jessaman. She enters Mott’s barn for her three-year-Old debut, and while I like her prospects moving forward, this may not be the race to take her in. Mott tends to demonstrate patience off layoffs, and there’s no reason for him to rush this one as she returns to the track.
3- Logic N Reason
This Christophe Clement trainee made her three-year-old debut last month, and had a lot of trouble in the stretch. She could never really get going and then checked badly, fading to last in a tightly packed field. It wasn’t a performance reflective of her ability, and there’s good reason to believe she’ll make a better showing this time around.
4- Ginger Kitty
Her best performance was a tenth place finish in a G3 race last year. She was still trained by Rusty Arnold at that point, and now she’s in Peter Pugh’s barn. I think she’s overmatched against these runners.
5- Taranta (Ire)
Well, if you were going to move a horse from France to the U.S., wouldn’t Louisiana be a good cultural transition point? It’s a shame the racing is terrible down there. Brian House debuted this filly at Louisiana Downs, where she was the only one closing in a very slow race in which she was clearly superior. This is a big step up, but there are definitely worse long shots out there.
6- Witez
This horse is following me around, which is a shame, because I’ve lost money on her at Gulfstream and Churchill Downs this year. She’s been a very solid runner for Ian Wilkes, and while the G3 Regret was out of her reach, she finds a landing spot that she may prefer. Her performance two starts back would likely win this race.
7- Crystal Glacier
Her only turf start was at a sprint distance and she performed poorly. She’s a long shot here.
8- Primacy
9- Pop a Choc
10- Miss Peppina
It’s unlikely any of these MTO runners make it to the track, so let’s grade their names. Primacy gets a B, very stiff name without any of the gravitas one word names sometimes provide. Pop a Choc gets an A-, really rolls off the tongue but lacks a little decorum. Miss Peppina is a C+ at best, sounds more like a claimer at Aqueduct.
11- Cost Benefit (GB)
Chad Brown’s horses rarely run like this one did to break her maiden last time out. In her debut, she set some pretty peppy fractions and won going wire-to-wire. She won a photo against another Brown runner that day, and that filly went on to finish second again at very short odds in her next race. She’ll likely be able to work out a similar trip this time around on the front end, but breaking from the far outside post against a much tougher field, she may not have the same success hanging on late.
Order: 1 3 11 5
Jazzique should be tough in this race, especially when considering that she ran as well as she possibly could under the track conditions last time out. Logic N Reason definitely deserves another chance after a very tough trip last time out for Christophe Clement. Cost Benefit is dangerous here, as she may be able to work out the same trip she got last time. It’ll be tougher this time around, but it’s certainly not impossible. Taranta, Witez, and Eye of a Soldier are also very live, and they all deserve a place in my top four. This is a completely wide open race that should pay well in some way.
Race 7
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
When I looked at the first half of this field, I thought it was the worst allowance field I’ve ever seen. Then I turned the page and all of the contenders were suddenly there at the same time. My top four, in the four widest post positions:
8- Fast Getaway
In his first race of the year, this gelding was awesome, blowing away a field of very competitive runners at the statebred level. The game plan is pretty clear, as he should sit a stalking trip and make a move in the stretch. He did it last time, and this is a slightly tougher field, but he seems to be in very good form at the moment.
7- American Mandate
At first, I placed this horse third, but he drifted up to first after I found issues with his competitors. Steven Asmussen wanted to run him on turf last time out but it was rained off, and he’s handled it well in the past. Based on his recent dirt form, his turf form should improve as well, which makes him very dangerous in this race. He’s up against some professional turfers, but I think he can handle them.
9- Cryogenic
This horse must be in the best shape of his life for Michael Maker to take him out of Florida statebred races. He’s been cleaning up in those races for most of this year, but after an excellent performance last time out, the connections feel encouraged to take a trip upstate. I think their enthusiasm is warranted, because the 86 BSF he earned is reinforced by a visually impressive run that day. He’ll have to face tougher today, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeds my expectations.
6- Morning Breez
This is the only contender that has experience at this level, and in two starts this summer, he’s proven to be a step below on both occasions. His last race was dominated by early speed up front, which made closing difficult, and this time around, a scenario may come up that serves him better. There are a lot of invaders in here though, so he may be overshadowed once again.
Order: 8 7 9 6
Fast Getaway crushed her last race with condescending ease, and while this will be a tougher task, it’s by no means unreasonable. American Mandate is interesting as Asmussen makes the switch to turf, but this runner hasn’t won in a long time. Cryogenic trees open company as well, but she’s coming from Florida, and while I’m very impressed by her last performance, I have to wonder who she was running against. Morning Breez will take a third shot at this condition, and I’m afraid she may have to wait for another start.
Race 8
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
This is an allowance featuring some lightly raced horses. However, many of them are immensely talented, which always makes for good racing. My top four:
5- Beau Luminarie
This gelding has been performing really well against some solid horses recently, finishing second to Overdeliver and Locally Owned in two starts. He’s one of three four-year-olds in the race, and the only one I consider to be a contender. He’s been training well and Luis Saez will take the mount for invading trainer Rodolphe Brisset. He was extremely wide in his last race and probably outperformed the eventual winner, and I really like his chances here with a better trip.
6- Basquiat
Speaking of great competition, this Chad Brown trainee finished fourth behind Tap It to Win, Mystic Guide, and Country Grammer last time out. Besides running some of the best three-year-olds in the country, he also has a 401 Tomlinson for this new distance. I like him a lot here.
7- Summer Kid
Gustavo Delgado has only brought one mount to Saratoga so far this meet, and Curacaro was the best horse in a graded stakes but ran wide to take second in a photo. This colt was undeniably phenomenal in his last race, and I feel strange putting him third, because I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he won here.
2- Happy Saver
This Todd Pletcher trainee dominated a maiden field in his first start, and will stretch out to a route distance here. Pletcher is very good stretching horses out, and this one is clearly talented. I just wonder if she’ll fare as well against stiffer competition.
Order: 5 6 7 2
Beau Luminarie and Basquiat both have experiences against very strong winners, and while they’re not locks in this wide open field, they will make a solid exacta. I hate throwing out Summer Kid and might end up including him in some sort of exotic bet as well, while Happy Saver will have to be a hesitant toss unless I start betting superfectas.
Race 9 (FULL ANALYSIS)
Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 on the Inner Turf
This is an excellent field for this running of the Baruch. Chad Brown represents 33% of the field, but there’s a lot to like beyond his very deserving favorite. Oh, and Michael Maker has another third, weirdly enough. As a result, I’ll be doing a full analysis of this race in post position order:
1- Seismic Wave
I loved this horse in his last race, but I totally slept on Social Paranoia and got beat. I’m still kicking myself for missing that, but we persevere. As I was saying, he came alive in his second start off the layoff, delivering a career-best performance in defeat. He stretches out a little further here to a distance at which he has never won before. However, he’s such a solid runner that I’ll have to include him somewhere. It’s a little concerning that Joel Rosario left to ride Olympico, but Jose Ortiz has Jose Ortiz has won with the horse in his only previous start on him, which is something Rosario couldn’t manage in six starts.
2- Good Governance (GB)
He really took care of business in an allowance victory off the layoff, and he should be feared in this spot. Chad Brown lives to win these races, and he has a real up-and-comer with this colt. Irad Ortiz could have ridden any horse he wanted here, including Brown’s runner, but this one was his pick. He’s super dangerous.
3- Somelikeithotbrown
Michael Maker was mighty bold with this colt off the layoff, and he was rewarded when his horse finished third in the G3 Fort Marcy, a length and a quarter off of Instilled Regard. I’m not even sure if he saw it coming, because I’m sure that Eric Cancel would not have been riding if he knew he was doing that well. He’s going to be an early presence, a strategy that Tyler Gaffalione has tried and succeeded with when riding this colt in the past. This might be an issue with Halladay to his outside, but at least he’ll have the rail. He can’t possibly improve that much in his second start off the layoff, but he’s a very solid contender all the same.
4- Mr Dumas
This colt is the second in the race for Michael Maker. He’s coming off a loss in an allowance at Churchill Downs, and his speed figures are generally not fast enough to win a race like this. Tyler Gaffalione rode him in his last start, and Maker has him riding his other horse here.
5- Olympico (Fr)
In a similar knock, Brown has Irad Ortiz riding Good Governance here. However, this gelding is still an excellent runner. He’s making his first start of the year here, and comes off a season in which he ran well but consistently came up short at higher levels. He finished fifth in this race last year as the favorite, and while he won’t be favored this time around, I wouldn’t be surprised if he returned in good order.
6- Halladay
I’ve always wanted this colt to try graded stakes competition in a division that desperately needs front runners. He hasn’t been quite good enough until recently, as he’s put up two consecutive 100+ Beyers in his last two starts. He’s pretty much a speedball through and through, which may pose a problem here because he’ll have to run outside of Somelikeithotbrown. However, Todd Pletcher has been patient in developing him and he wouldn’t put him in a spot like this one unless he felt that he was prepared to do it. I’m excited to see him join these ranks, and even if he doesn’t win here, I want to see him stick around. If he does win, then that’ll be even better.
Order: 2 6 3 1
Good Governance appears to be a little too tough for these runners, and it seems like Chad Brown has some very big plans for her. I think Halladay and Somelikeithotbrown will both hold up fairly well on the front end and have them in my second and third spots. I love Seismic Wave and will likely be beating him sentimentally.
Race 10
Alright, I’m going to level with everyone. At around 2:30 today, I realized that I had forgotten that the tenth race existed. Rather than provide some half baked analysis, I’m going to skip it to spare my fellow handicappers. This is to ensure that when you go to this site for a “second opinion,” it will be a well informed one. My apologies.