Things cool down here at Saratoga after a perfect day of racing yesterday, but this Sunday card is still one of very high quality. In addition, it gives us time to reflect on some of the incredible performances we’ve all just been witness to.
Both top three-year-olds, Tiz the Law and Gamine, passed their respective tests with flying colors, and while confidence builds for Tiz the Law as he enters the Kentucky Derby, I’m going to continue to advocate for Gamine’s prospective entry in the Preakness. These two are superstars, and as I said in an article back in June, horse racing is at its best when the best runners are settling scores on the track. Regardless, this fall season is starting to look incredible, isn’t it?
Race 1
$12,500 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a routine start to a pretty chill day of racing, but the dynamics of this race make it somewhat interesting. There’s an unexpected presence of several early speed types in this cheap claiming race, which could open up some more interesting handicapping options. My top four:
7- Deep Sea
This gelding hadn’t won in a long time before taking a claiming race at this level last time out at Saratoga, finishing ahead of fellow runner Vineyard Sound. While I don’t feel it as strongly in this case, I do sometimes observe that a victory after a long drought can lead to more success in subsequent starts. In addition, I think there may be a strong pace up front in this race, which should gelding this gelding that should run a tactical race. Rudy Rodriguez and Jose Ortiz don’t often mess around when they work together, and I think he’s in condition here.
2- Stoney Bennett
I’m not exactly sure why this gelding isn’t in a statebred race in his return to Saratoga, but I have a suspicion. Linda Rice sometimes drops horses drastically in price in an effort to get rid of them. She could probably find a $25,000 claiming race in statebred competition if she was interested in getting him a victory, but instead, she’s willing to part with him for $12,500, with the only differences being that his tag is cheaper and he’s running against strictly better competition. As if that wasn’t enough, I’m not even sure he’ll be alone up front early, which could hurt his chances further. This is a pretty weak field and I still think this gelding can actually do some running, but if he’s 8-5 at post time, I’ll have more than enough reason to bet against him.
3- We Should Talk
This gelding hasn’t raced since February, when he easily controlled an Aqueduct claiming race in the stretch to defeat fellow runner Deep Sea. He was claimed by Rob Atras that day but hasn’t raced since, and makes his return here against roughly similar competition to what he was dealing with in the winter. His speed figures are competitive and Junior Alvarado is a solid addition, but I have a concern with Rob Atras trainees coming off layoffs. Maybe he needs a race.
1- Vineyard Sound
He finished second to Deep Sea last time out in the best performance of his life, but that was on a speed favoring track and he was leading. That’s also a knock on Deep Sea in a way, because he was sitting close behind in second, but this horse had the rail and a distinct advantage in a duel. He gave it up to the outside runner, and on a fairer track that may even hurt him this time around, I’m not favoring him.
Order: 7 2 3 1
A hot pace could benefit my top selection, Deep Sea, a recent winner for Rudy Rodriguez and Jose Ortiz. Meanwhile, Stoney Bennett could have trouble with the same scenario as a horse with significant competing speed early. However, there are other problems with him, and the combination of several factors is enough to dissuade me. I’d like to see We Should Talk get a start, and I don’t believe Vineyard Sound is as good as his last performance.
Race 2
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is an interesting juvenile race because of the presence of a rogue Jimmy Toner firster at 9-5 odds on the morning line. With two Chad Brown runners in the race, that’s no small feat, and it makes my top four seem a little strange:
7- Misspell
Chad Brown and Peter Brant are a powerhouse team when it comes to producing excellent horses. This first time starter recently shipped up to Saratoga for a workout, and while her tab overall is uninspiring, it’s hard not to like everything else. A 380 Tomlinson for the distance and a $325,000 purchase price helps, and for whatever reason, American Pharoah’s offspring have been excellent on the turf. She seems tough here.
5- Seasons
I guess Jimmy Toner has a buzz horse here. I’m sure there’s a better reason to suspect that, some A grade on a workout or something, but to be honest, I’m simply going on the 9-5 morning line odds and presence of Jose Ortiz. It’s not sophisticated, but it works in this kind of race. Toner is usually mediocre with first time starters, but again, I get the feeling that this horse isn’t really tethered to the trainer’s ability. Tapit is the best sire in the country and the filly has a 372 Tomlinson to go along with some excellent workouts. I’m not counting her out.
1- Frankel At Ascot (Fr)
This is only one of two runners in this race with experience, and I like her last start. I think Alda is the real deal, so finishing behind her isn’t really a drawback. In fact, my only real issue is Mark Casse, who’s still winless at Saratoga.
4- Fluffy Socks
One of my uncle’s favorite angles is taking the longer priced of the two Chad Brown firsters in a given race, but I have my questions here. Irad Ortiz is riding, which is obviously a great sign. However, her work tab is pretty uninspiring and she only has a 272 Tomlinson for the distance.
Order: 7 5 1 4
Seasons could very well be the real deal, but I just can’t stomach a wager on Jimmy Toner against two Chad Brown horses, of which I prefer Misspell. Frankel At Ascot is a live filly with some experience, but Mark Casse has been having a rough time lately.
Race 3
$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
These small fields are always going to be a little frustrating, because this race would be awesome with eight or nine horses in it. However, it does make my job a little easier when making a top four:
4- Critical Value (SCRATCHED)
In her three-year-old debut, this filly took care of business in a statebred stakes, pulling away to win by four. She gets some tougher competition this time around, but based on her speed figures, she fits well here. There are a few runners here that could go to the lead, and with a hot enough pace, I think she can find a good trip coming from off the pace. She’s also making her second start off the layoff, which makes improvement possible as well.
2- Say Moi
Her last race was obviously impressive, but she won that race alone on the lead on a track biased towards early speed. I believe that’s more responsible for the 91 BSF than the switch to a route distance, though it is encouraging to see that she could handle it. I think she’ll give a good account of herself here, but I can visualize some natural regression.
1- Smooth With a Kick
Chad Brown’s tried this filly on turf in two straight races off long layoffs, and I’m not sure it’s gone to plan. He switches him back to dirt here, and while I’d usually be wary of this surface switch, he does have a lot of useful experience on the dirt to put him in contention here. Chad Brown is obviously an attractive trainer to wager on, but I prefer others here.
3- Wild Love
This filly really took to this distance in her maiden win, when she pulled away to crush a maiden field by 11 lengths at Churchill Downs. Steve Asmussen ships her up to Saratoga and keeps Ricardo Santana on her, but based on her speed figure in that performance, she’ll have to improve even more to take down a field of this caliber.
Order: 4 2 1 3 (Note: The 4, Critical Value, has been scratched.)
Between Critical Value and Say Moi, I’d like to take a small chance with the former option with experience at this distance and a freshener after a long layoff. Meanwhile, Smooth With a Kick gets back on dirt for Chad Brown, but I’m a little curious why Turf was the goal for so long. Wild Love will have to improve for Steve Asmussen after a dominant maiden victory.
Race 4
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a fairly routine two-year-old race, and after enough of these, a handicapper begins to forget that these fillies may end up being extremely talented runners. My top four:
7- Fouette
Steve Asmussen seems to have a quick filly here based on her recent work in the morning. This $400,000 purchase will be ridden by Ricardo Santana in her debut, and has a 341 Tomlinson for the distance. I can easily see her run on first asking.
2- Steal My Sunshine
I’m not betting on the merit of her turf debut, but what this filly’s done in the morning since. Her first workout exiting that race was extremely fast, four furlongs in 46 and two fifths seconds. She followed it up with another brisk work, and Wesley Ward puts her on the dirt for her second start. Irad Ortiz stays on to ride, and I think she’ll take a step forward here.
6- Saratoga Commando
Chad Brown and Michael Dubb team up with Jose Ortiz on what seems like a pretty solid firster here. The filly has been working well in the morning and has a 414 Tomlinson for the distance, and Brown sends them out ready too often to ignore her completely.
3- Lightfoot Miss
Bill Mott won with a first time starter yesterday, though American Monarch appeared much more eye catching on paper than this filly. Even still, she’s been relatively quick in the morning and has a 403 Tomlinson for the distance. Junior Alvarado joins to ride and maybe she’ll be ready to go.
Order: 7 2 6 3
Fouette seems like a special filly for Steve Asmussen, and I think she’ll respond on first asking. However, after a turf start, Steal My Sunshine seems to be sitting on a huge race, which could be enough to take home a victory here. Saratoga Commando is a Brown firster that needs to be respected, while Lightfoot Miss May just need a start.
Race 5
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
Several of these maidens are bound for allowance competition in time, but they still have to break through this condition first. This race doesn’t seem to have much pace up front, which could hurt some of the closers and help those with natural speed. My top four:
6- Bastet
In a race without pace, I really like this Bill Mott filly. She ran very well last time out, finishing ahead of fellow runner L’Indiscret, but seemed a little even in the late going, which I can attribute to the shorter distance. She stretches back out here to a route distance, and I think she’ll manage to have a say near the front under slow fractions.
5- Windfall Profit
I think she’s a deserving favorite, but I think she should have broken her maiden in April and then again in last time out in June. Losing a few starts is one thing, but losing two straight photo finishes, one in which she finished third by a head, one starts to wonder what her priorities are. In a race where I think she’s a contender without being an overwhelming presence, I’m willing to take a chance against her as the favorite. I wouldn’t be surprised if she did win, but there’s a lot more to like here than what she wants to offer.
3- L’Indiscret
This Barclay Tagg filly ran pretty well last time out, closing from far back to finish fifth behind fellow runner Bastet. I think she’s a capable runner with a speed figure that fits here, but my concern has to do with pace. She’s a real closer that will require pace that doesn’t exist here, and against better horses with a little more pace, I’m not sure she can make up the necessary ground.
2- Ms Boombastic
Bill Mott’s firsters almost always need their debut to get into the flow of racing, and against very experienced runners like this, they’re at a significant disadvantage. I’d wait and see with this filly, who doesn’t look all that offensive on paper.
Order: 6 5 3 2
In this specific race, I happen to prefer Bastet over Windfall Profit and L’Indiscret because of her ability to run closer to the front under slow fractions. Windfall Profit seems to have a bit of a mental block finding the winner’s circle while L’Indiscret needs hotter fractions to run into.
Race 6
$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a very solid allowance race featuring a lot of up-and-coming fillies and one serious mare. My top four:
6- Primacy
In her first race off the layoff, this filly responded in a big way to handle a maiden field by four lengths. That performance makes her competitive here for Chad Brown, and in her second start off the layoff, she’s eligible to improve. Irad Ortiz replaces Javier Castellano, who’s on another of Brown’s runners in the race.
2- Timely Tradition
This mare is far more experienced than her competition, and has been perfect recently, rattling off three straight victories while consistently stepping up in class. She’s really been great lately winning with different running styles and on three different tracks for Ray Handal. At some point, she’s going to take a step back, because she’ll keep stepping up and will eventually hit a wall. However, it’s hard to discount her chances when she’s been running as well as she has been.
7- Glass Ceiling
This is a bit of a sneaky runner in here for Danny Gargan, and I think she’ll be underrated by bettors for her recent performances. Her performance three back in a race taken off the turf was very good and makes her competitive here, while her next start in the G1 Acorn was fun for no one but Gamine, who I imagine enjoyed herself 90 lengths ahead of this runner. In her bounceback race, she ran into a speed favoring race setup in which Palace Avenger and Palomita held fairly well despite dueling the whole way around the track. She’s getting a bigger field this time around and a more competitive pace scenario up front, while Irad Ortiz and Joel Rosario have gone elsewhere, I think she’ll manage to take a small step forward here at a price.
5- Secondary Market
Last year, this fully handled a maiden field really well to win by five lengths and earn a 78 BSF. That’s a figure many of her competitors have earned in the last few months, and she achieved it as a two-year-old. Chad Brown is excellent with everything, including runners coming off long layoffs, and he could have put Javier Castellano on either mount he had in the race and chose this one. He may just need a race after so much time off, but he’ll be interesting to consider at a small price.
Order: 6 2 7 5
Of the two Chad Brown fillies, I prefer Primacy because of the recency of her last start, while Secondary Market may just need a race to get back into things. Timely Tradition has been excellent as of late and keeps stepping up in class, but her speed figures are phenomenal for this field and make her the one to beat. Glass Ceiling is a sneaky option for Danny Gargan, because she may be better than she looks on paper.
Race 7
$40,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races. Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
One of the trickier parts of transitioning from Belmont to Saratoga is handicapping the turf sprints. The six furlongs typically run at Belmont and the five and a half run at Saratoga are two very different races, and some horses like one but not the other, which makes things difficult. In this race, there are pretty much two runners that I believe are most properly equipped to run here:
5- Mo Me Mo My
There are really just two horses in this race that have proven they can handle this distance, and this is the one I prefer. After scratching in a race at Belmont, she made her return off the layoff and didn’t show her best, finishing sixth in a deep allowance field. She takes a sensible drop in class as a result, and seems to fit much better in this field. In her second race off the layoff with Joel Rosario now riding, I think she’ll make a much better showing this time around.
4- Aunt Nadine
This filly is new to the turf, but in her first start off the layoff, she proved she could handle it with a very solid second place finish at this level. As if Jorge Navarro didn’t have enough problems, it may be a knock on his training acumen that Steve Asmussen immediately switched surfaces with her and she improved drastically. It would be a wager based on one performance, but this will be her second race off the layoff, which could lead to a sharper performance.
8- Ginger Kitty
The connections are poor, but I don’t think the filly is. She was a 50-1 shot in her first start off the layoff, and I think she outran her odds. She had to check into the first turn and then re-rallied late before fading back to sixth. That was a particularly tough allowance race, and the 66 speed figure she earned, albeit at a mile, isn’t too far off from other runners here. This is a sensible drop in class, and again, the connections are nearly winless combined at Saratoga. She’s also completely unproven at this distance, and has a 231 Tomlinson for it. However, I think she’ll be underbet and could be worth a look underneath.
9- Stretchthestory
I think this runner can handle the distance, but I don’t think she takes to it in a special way. In her three-year-old debut in statebred competition back in June, she really disappointed in a ninth-place performance that led to another short layoff. Christophe Clement has been great as of late, but I think this is a stretch here.
Order: 5 4 8 9
Mo Me Mo My and Aunt Nadine are the two clear contenders to me, having handled this distance in the past. Ginger Kitty has never gone nearly this short before, but is dropping in class after running better than it appears on paper last time out. Stretchthestory seems a little outmatched.
Race 8
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
8- City Man
This colt won the first two starts of his career and hasn’t won since, but he’s definitely headed in the right direction. His performance last time out in the G3 Transylvania was very impressive, as he closed to finish fourth in a race where he was supposed to be way over his head. He clearly prefers the turf and it’s good to see that Christophe Clement finally agrees, and while this field is very deep, I think he can handle it.
3- Shamrocket
After multiple middling maiden performances, he improved dramatically two starts back and backed it up in his first test against winners. His performance that day was a closing effort in a race where the pace held well on the front end, and he just missed at the wire. I think this distance is perfect for him, and wouldn’t be surprised if he notched his second victory here.
5- Mr Jaggers
He took care of business in a very professional manner last time out, sitting a perfect trip at this distance to break his maiden with ease. This is his first test against winners, and it appears to be a steep one against a tough field here. He also got a pretty optimal trip last time, which suggests that it was his best possible performance. I’m not sure it’s quite good enough to win here, but I do like his chances to run well.
1- Venezuelan Hug
This colt had a lot of trouble against Decorated Invader last time out, but so did the rest of the field. I also think the mile he got that day was the exact opposite of what he wanted, and this extra eighth could work wonders. My one nitpick is that he doesn’t appear to possess any tactical speed whatsoever, and this doesn’t appear to be a very quick race on paper. However, I think this new distance will work well for him, and the price should be right too.
Order: 8 3 5 1
Clement’s two colts here seem to be the top two contenders, and I think both of them have supreme chances to win. Mr Jaggers is coming off an easy maiden win on a perfect trip, but I can see him handling himself well against winners. Venezuelan Hug is an interesting outsider that will likely go a little unappreciated on the board.
Race 9
Alydar Stakes (Restricted) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Not Won a Sweepstake in 2020, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
This is a fun stakes race featuring very talented horses that don’t always get the spotlight against the elite runners in graded stakes competition. For a six-horse race, it’s fairly wide open as well, with a few different surprises possibly waiting bettors on the track:
5- Bodexpress
I’m so fond of this horse. There are front running horses out there like Maximum Security and Justify, but then there are horses like this, that set paces like they’re running for their lives. This colt can really fly, but in an unfortunate turn, he’s never been fortunate enough to find a big race that really set up well for his running style. He may not be alone up front here either, but he is the speed of speed. Gustavo Delgado brought Caracaro here from Gulfstream off an even longer layoff, and he ran second in the Peter Pan on first asking. Javier Castellano is riding this one as well, and I like his chances in this smaller field.
1- Endorsed
He’s a very deserving favorite coming off of two solid performances in graded stakes competition. He was also very impressive last year at Saratoga, finishing an upset fourth in the Travers. I don’t think the mile was the right spot for him last time out, and some added distance should help as well. That being said, I do think he’s a little too obvious here at short odds.
4- Its All Relevant
This gelding is taking yet another step up in class, having started at the $8,000 claiming level in February 2019. He just keeps winning, and of course, Rudy Rodriguez won the claiming game and is now beginning to run him in positions where he can’t lose him. He’ll be a serious pace presence here, which could be an issue for fellow runner Bodexpress, but for once, I don’t think he’ll manage to get the lead. If he does try to, then I think he’ll be worn down relatively easily. I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’ll stalk, because that rarely happens, but to win at this new level, I believe he’ll need more than a wire-to-wire effort.
6- Tenfold (SCRATCHED)
This horse is extremely classy and has been for a long time. He’s run behind some of the best horses in the country, most recently Improbable and By My Standards, and he’s held his own without really challenging. He, along with Endorsed, gets some serious class relief, and the only real issue is his somewhat light speed figures.
Order: 5 1 4 6 (Note: The 6, Tenfold, has been scratched.)
I’m taking a chance with the speed here, because I think Bodexpress is still waiting for an opportunity for his speed to carry him through in stakes competition. Endorsed is obviously a legitimate runner that deserves favoritism, but I’m taking a small chance against him, possibly against my better judgment. Its All Relevant isn’t quite as classy as these other runners, but sometimes it’s encouraging to see a horse on the rise instead of one seeking a softer spot in these races. Tenfold wouldn’t surprise me much either, which really speaks to the competitive nature of the race.
Race 10
$25,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
8- Brunate
Jimmy Bond is doing very well at Saratoga this meet, and appears to have another live one here. After defeating fellow runner Imperio D two starts back, his foe turned the tables on him next time out. However, this gelding got a much tougher trip than I.D. that day and still came up short by just a neck. He appears to be the superior runner, and Tyler Gaffalione stays to ride for a trainer he’s done well with in limited starts together.
1- Imperio D
Barring a tough start two starts back, this colt has been running well since the layoff, and even finished ahead of fellow runner Brunate last time out. However, he did seem to get the better trip there, and I don’t believe he can beat him twice. He’s the second most interesting option to me here.
7- Lorenzen (SCRATCHED)
This horse has been scratched, which is good because he was making me a little nervous. Before a poor start last time out, he was performing behind much tougher runners than the ones he’s facing here. However, I was scared away by the poor connections, and now I don’t have to worry about him.
4- Bank Gala
This gelding never runs offensively bad, but after 18 starts, he’s run too well to lose on several occasions.
Order: 8 1 7 4 (Note: The 7, Lorenzen, has been scratched.)