This is a bit of a cooldown day at Saratoga after a very competitive card yesterday. However, the day does pick up after a few drab races early on, which should give people reason to tune in, assuming the rain holds out.
Race 1
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/8 Miles on the Mellon Turf
This isn’t a great maiden race due to the field size, but there are some decent runners that might make it more interesting in retrospect. My top four:
3- Mrs Frankel (Ire)
She ran better than it appears on paper in her first start, and in retrospect, that’s a fairly live race she’s coming out of. Three horses have gone on to break their maidens, and this one was competing with them that day. Mark Casse is still winless, and he’s not the only one with a contender here, but I think the experience of his runner will be an advantage that she can use to improve this time around.
7- Delaware Destiny
Christophe Clement is unbelievably hot at Saratoga, and he has another good looking filly here. She’s clearly being trained for the turf, and while Irad Ortiz and Clement don’t often work together, it’s a fairly good sign when they do. She has a 349 Tomlinson for the distance and Clement wins with 27% of first time starters.
5- Blend
Bill Mott doesn’t win with nearly as many first time starters, but with six horses in the race, I have to mention his filly. Alvarado has been riding a lot of his first time starters to no avail, and based on her workouts, I’d suspect that she may need a race.
4- Uyuni
This filly ran for Wesley Ward first time out, which almost always inflates a firster’s odds. She was disappointing that day, and in retrospect, the race wasn’t very live either. I’d like to see her run up here before I trust her to win.
Order: 3 7 5 4
I think this race comes down to Mrs Frankel and Delaware Destiny, and I’m giving Mrs Frankel the edge because she has a race to go off of. Blend and Uyuni are contenders with an outside chance as well, but I think Uyuni would have to improve off her second start to win.
Race 2
$12,500 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/18 Miles on the Dirt
These races are always competitive, but they tend to trip me up. They’re all very professional and I’m familiar with the New York based runners, but their performances from one race to the next can vary wildly. Let’s give it a shot:
2- Mills
This 10-year-old gelding has been in very good form lately, winning three of his last five starts. He ran well in his last race but had a little trouble chasing two horses alone on the front end. He still held well for third, defeating fellow runner Eden Ridge for a third straight time, and it seems like he’ll have softer competition this time around. I’ll go with him at a price, especially when considering that he won the last time he ran at this level.
7- Walkoff
This gelding is probably a deserving favorite, but after watching his replays, I feel like he always gets his way. Two starts back, he closed in a race that was heavily favoring closers, and in his last start, he was near the front and the pace held up. That may just be a testament to his versatility, and the speed figures are very solid. However, they’re not much better than the ones Mills earns, and while Mills often has to work for his figures, this horse tends to get favorable situations. Irad Ortiz could easily find him another such scenario here, but if he encounters any trouble at all, it would be the first time since February, when he was crushed at a higher level at Aqueduct on a dead rail.
5- Curlin Grey
As a dead closer, he lives and dies by the pace up front, and he had some luck before his last race. That was a very slow pace, but it’s important to note that several runners closed better than he did, so I’m not excusing the performance altogether. He may get something to close into here, and even if he doesn’t, the front end may fall apart anyway. However, I think he’ll be overbet as a runner very dependent on largely unforeseeable pace scenarios.
1- Eden Ridge
This gelding has lost to Mills in three straight races, but that doesn’t mean he can’t finish in the top four. His speed figures are solid, and there’s a chance he can overtake one of the favorites if they have an off day.
Order: 2 7 5 1
I don’t really care for the two favorites here, so I’m taking a shot with Mills, an old timer that’s been working pretty hard lately. He’s going to hit a wall at some point, but I think he can work out a better trip than the one he got last time out. Walkoff has been getting a lot of perfect trips lately, while Curlin Grey will need something to run into and suffered a drawback in form last time out.
Race 3
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 3/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
Here’s another small field that makes the race a little less competitive than it ought to be. I couldn’t find much beyond an obvious favorite, though there is an intriguing long shot that I’ve bumped up in my order to talk about:
1A- Tide of the Sea
His last race was extremely impressive, as he dueled on the outside, defeated his early running foe, and led into the stretch but was nipped at the wire by Value Engineering. Michael Maker is hot and Irad Ortiz has been working well with him, and it helps that they appear to have the best horse in the field.
5- Mr. Alec
I’m a little concerned about this runner based on his last start, a defeat behind fellow runner Tide of the Sea. He didn’t begin to move in the stretch until he was already passed, which indicates that he’s more interested in chasing. However, he lost by a neck to Cross Border last November, a horse that won the G2 Bowling Green yesterday, and his speed figures are very competitive. He may have just needed a race to put the pieces together, and Christophe Clement can’t be touched lately.
3- African Heritage
I’m not sure if this is the race, but I’d strongly suggest keeping an eye on this one. The three-year-olds that he competed against and defeated in some cases, runners like Lonesome Fugitive, Battalion, and Summer To Remember, have gone on to become very solid runners later this year. He’s been laid off since February, and Jaime Mejia is abysmal coming off layoffs. However, a large reason for his long odds are a result of Mejia, rather than his ability as a three-year-old. Again, he may need a start, and being entered at this overlong distance reinforces that idea, but I think he’s going to surprise some people at some point.
4- Bluegrass Parkway
Jonathan Thomas acquired a runner from Rodolphe Brisset with this colt, and while he’s capable, he’s had some trouble finding the winner’s circle. He hasn’t finished outside of fourth since his last victory, but that victory came in October 2018. Thomas hasn’t been too fortunate in New York this year, and he’ll need to have this one ready to win again off a layoff.
Order: 1A 5 3 4
If Tide of the Sea and Mr. Alec are at the same odds, I’m taking the former on almost every occasion. Meanwhile, I’d keep an eye on African Heritage going forward, because I feel a surprise coming in the future.
Race 4
$25,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is another lazy race with a fairly small field, and once again, I’m struggling to get around a very sensible favorite. My top four:
7- Kilmarknock
In open company, this gelding competed fairly well against Cobble Hill and Lost in Rome. I’d probably take either of those horses in this race, and his speed figures reinforce the idea that he’s a step above. Robert Falcone’s brought some good horses to Saratoga so far, and he may be able to find the winner’s circle here.
8- Bank Gala
This 17-race maiden has performed well when dropping in class, but he’s never been at this level before. His last race earned him a decent figure in a poor performance, and I think he’s been looking for this level all along. Still, he’s kind of difficult to take on top.
3- Long Island City
This gelding is lightly raced, which can be a sort of advantage. However, Bruce Levine clearly thought he was a turf horse after a successful start off the layoff, but he really fell off in his last start. He’s back on dirt now, his original surface, and until he gets a clearer direction, I’ll have to look elsewhere.
2- Determined One
This gelding only has one dirt start in four races, and it wasn’t terrible. Reylu Gutierrez almost stole the race on the front end but was run down by two fairly solid statebred runners. He could try the same thing, but if he did, he’d have to duel with a horse directly to his inside. Thomas Morley could recruit better jockeys but sticks with Gutierrez, which isn’t the most encouraging sign at Saratoga.
Order: 7 8 3 2
I think Kilmarknock is the only one in this race worth talking about, because I think he fits a little too well to lose. He’s run very well recently as a contender in open company maiden races, and he now finds an even more attractive spot. In addition, I find the other three in my top four to be a little underwhelming.
Race 5
$35,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
I really hope something jumps out at me in the endgame few races, because I’m treading water here. Here’s another race with another sensible favorite, even if he has his vulnerabilities:
7- Unleveraged
Back in March, this Chad Brown horse ran sixth behind some excellent runners, such as Largent and Tribhuvan. In his first start off the layoff, he’s for sale for $35,000. That’s pretty concerning, but Irad Ortiz is riding him, so Brown may just be trying to find him a softer spot. If he runs back to anything resembling his previous form, he’ll be fine here. He’d have to have an uncharacteristically bad start, and while Brown may have lost faith in him, he doesn’t often enter horses without a chance.
5- War Film
He was simply defeated last time out by some solid runners, but he’s been falling short for a long time now. He hasn’t won a race since March 2019, but he’s also spent a lot of that time in stakes competition. Jose Ortiz sticks around to ride for Steve Asmussen, and I think he’s getting some softer competition in this one beyond the favorite.
2- Ian Glass
The plan with this runner is always clear. Joel Rosario will try his hand at wiring the field, something hasn’t done since April 2019 at Laurel. Ray Handal is very good at Saratoga lately, and this horse’s speed figures fit here. Megacity ran with him last time, and it didn’t take either one of them completely out of the race.
6- Impazible Odds
This gelding is very consistent and seems to try, despite the fact that he hasn’t won in over a year. He’s run with several different running styles recently, and his performance two races back against Shiraz was very respectable. I don’t see why he can’t fight for a minor prize at a price.
Order: 7 5 2 6
Unleveraged is taking a concerning drop in class, but it may be a positive move by Brown rather than a negative one. Even if it is negative, he still may be good enough to win here. War Film and Ian Glass are decent contenders that I may not be giving enough credit to, while Impazible Odds is interesting at a price.
Race 6
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This field actually has some promise, as there are several first time starters facing off against some more experienced runners. I actually like the two firsters over two that have raced in my top four:
4- Mo Dean
Chad Brown won with a firster yesterday, and this one seems even more promising. This $575,000 Uncle Mo filly has been training very well and has a 354 Tomlinson for the distance. Irad Ortiz works very well with Brown, which tells me that they’re trying to win here.
6- Lady Lilly
Steve Asmussen hasn’t been great with his Saratoga firsters at this meet, but this $280,000 Nyquist filly seems like the type he wins with. She’s been working very well in the morning, and Joel Rosario takes a rare mount from Asmussen amid an early bid for the jockey’s title.
9- Beautiful Farewell
I said yesterday that Winfromwithin wasn’t coming out of a live race, and he ran to my expectations, this filly lost to him that day, and while Michael Stidham is very good with maidens making their second start, I think there are some promising first time starters in here to contend with her.
2- Spun d’Etat
This filly’s first race hasn’t produced any winners yet, but Tom Amoss has her here for a reason. He’s very good with maidens making their second start, and Gaffalione remembers her from Keeneland and takes the reins again. She can improve.
Order: 4 6 9 2
Mo Dean and Lady Lilly are both making their first starts after selling for high prices at auctions. Chad Brown and Steve Asmussen know how to get their horses ready, and I think they’re both very live. Beautiful Farewell and Spun d’Etat both ran fairly well in their debuts, but are coming out of races that haven’t produced many winners.
Race 7
$25,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
It’s amazing how quickly some of these horses went from $62,000 optional claiming races to this. There are several very talented runners in this race that are simply looking at the back ends of their careers. Figuring out who’s ready to go is tricky:
2- Dowse’s Beach
His last race was a disaster when he was caught tight in the stretch and had to pull up in order to avoid running into other horses. Irad Ortiz was lucky to stay on him as he eased him home last. It wasn’t a performance indicative of his ability, and he was running pretty well before checking. In the race before that, he was caught in a suicidal pace up front and still held on for third, and Irad Ortiz is sticking around to ride him after nearly being unseated last time out. This horse loves this distance at Saratoga, and I’m taking another chance with him after some bad luck last time out.
5- Shiraz
My main critique of this horse last time out was that he didn’t win often, and I felt like I was on pretty solid ground there. He shut me up, winning by a half-length, but it’s clear that several contenders didn’t show up, as he finished ahead of Bad Guy and Impazible Odds (traditionally also rans). He’s an extremely consistent and effective horse, and a victory may make him more open to it going forward. However, this is a step up, and he’ll have some better horses to deal with this time around.
8- Kitten’s Cat
This runner was essentially a lock two starts back and anything but last time out. After winning a race professionally at the $32,000 claiming level, he was claimed by Linda Rice and stepped up to the optional claiming condition, where he struggled at longer odds. It was a terrible performance, to the point that I have to wonder whether it was just the competition he was facing. He’s back at an appropriate level, but he’ll be running on the same track and at the same distance at which he just finished dead last and completely depleted. Jose Ortiz is returning, but I don’t know if I can trust this runner.
3- Field of Courage
His performance two starts back was his 2020 debut off a two-year layoff, and it actually wasn’t as bad as it looks. He wasn’t going to win that day, but he wasn’t going to finish ninth either, until he was squeezed and forced to check in the final furlong. The gelding has some obvious issues, namely that he hasn’t won since 2017. The form he had when he won the G2 Nearctic at a huge price is likely gone for good, but it looks like he has a little life left in him.
Order: 2 5 8 3
Dowse’s Beach had a very tough trip last time out, and I’m doubling down on him in the hopes that Saratoga will do the trick for him. Shiraz is coming off a good performance against weaker horses, and I’m not sold on the idea that he can handle this field. Meanwhile, Kitten’s Cat had an excellent race two back but performed very poorly without a good excuse last time, which is holding me back as well. Field of Courage strikes me as a sneaky runner to consider at a price.
Race 8
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a very good statebred allowance, with a lot of variety on the table for handicappers. Every contender has a different angle to mull over, which makes it difficult but potentially profitable. My top four:
6- Gandy Dancing
I don’t mind his last race at all, even though he finished eighth. Watching the replay, he started slowly, which hurt his running style that leans toward the tactical side. Then, he swung very wide into the stretch and didn’t make up any ground, but the key for me is that he was interested. Coming off a long layoff, he seemed to want to do what he was doing, and never seemed to fold. Manny Franco was still riding him at that point, and while Franco does work well with Chad Brown, it’s more of an Aqueduct connection they share. In his second start off the layoff, Javier Castellano is climbing aboard, and it seems like this is the start the connections have been waiting for.
11- Fort Worth
In this colt’s two-race career, he’s only finished behind two horses, when he finished third behind Shancelot and Bodexpress in his debut. The former was one of the best sprinters in the country last year and the latter ran in the Triple Crown. His speed figures from last year are far superior to this field, and Todd Pletcher usually has his horses prepared after time off. I’m going against him because he’s been off for a year, and while there’s a very good chance he’s sharp, I feel like this is a strange spot for a runner that earned a 91 BSF as a three-year-old. I feel like that performance would warrant an entry in a better race than this one, and I’m not used to Pletcher demonstrating patience. Maybe, and it’s a big maybe, he needs a start or two to round back into form.
8- Harris Bay
This colt’s best performance is still his maiden victory at two, and his second best performance came in a four-horse field in the Rego Park. He ran well that day to defeat Dream Bigger a second time, and he always tends to make a solid move in the stretch. However, he has been off for a while now, and John Kimmel doesn’t always have his runners in razor sharp condition off layoffs. Junior Alvarado rides very well with both the trainer and the horse, but I think his mount may just need a start.
3- Riken
He’s been performing very well lately, but in his last two starts, he’s managed to wire fields on the front end with uncontested leads. He’s still the fastest runner in this race up front, but there are several here that may apply pressure that he hasn’t received in awhile. When he’s pressured, he tends to fold, which makes me think it would be safer to bet against him here.
Order: 6 11 8 3
I’m going to try to beat Fort Worth, because I believe that the favorite will be overbet as a runner coming off a layoff of over one year. Gandy Dancing impressed me in his last start, and it’s not everyday that I can get a live Chad Brown runner at a decent price. Harris Bay is an attractive option that may develop at this point in his three-year-old season, but I also think he will benefit from a race. Riken has been very reliable as of late, but I don’t believe that he’ll get the same conditions that have been integral to his last three victories.
Race 9
Birdstone Stakes (Ungraded) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 3/4 Miles on the Dirt
I love a good marathon race every now and again, but these used to be far more common than they are now. They’re a callback to the real iron horses of yesteryear, when horses raced once every five days for loaves of bread or something, I don’t know. My top four:
6- Moretti
This colt’s best performance came in a wire-to-wire performance at 1 3/8 miles, in which he earned a 96 BSF. I have no clue if he can run this long, but the fact that he ran his best race at the longest distance he ever raced at is somewhat helpful. He ran well in the G2 Suburban behind Tacitus as well, and while there are several contenders in this race facing the back ends of their careers, this one seems to just be getting started. This is a weird spot, but I think he can handle it.
3- Expert
He wasn’t good enough to catch Moretti in the Flat Out last time out, but he was far from disgraced and finished ahead of fellow runner Rocketry. Last year, he was really rolling at lower levels before taking off for nearly a year. He hasn’t been as good since, but on the other hand, he hasn’t managed to string two races together yet in 2020. Dominick Schettino keeps entering him in tough spots and recruits Irad Ortiz to ride here. I won’t put it past him to win here.
4- Rocketry
The Marathon monster will make his second start of the year here, and he’ll receive some deserved attention. If there’s a race over a mile and a half run on dirt, it’s nearly a guarantee that this horse will show up to give it a shot. At this distance, he’s one-for-two, but that victory in the G2 Marathon in 2018 is his last victory. He’s a dead closer that seems to have lost a little of his closing power, and while I’ll never doubt him to put up a solid performance, I do believe he’ll be overbet.
5- American Tattoo (Arg)
I don’t love that Todd Pletcher seemed to get rid of this horse after he tailed off last year. He ran pretty well in his only attempt at this distance, but that was in the midst of an excellent stretch in his career. In two starts this year, he’s struggled mightily, and now Jack Sisterson will take over, something he doesn’t do well first time out. Maybe he can turn things around, but I’d definitely like to see a start first.
Order: 6 3 4 5
Moretti and Expert are the two key contenders for me in this race, and Moretti proved much better at a shorter distance two starts back. Rocketry is a solid runner, but he’ll have to prove he can still win, and I don’t believe I’ll be compensated appropriately for wagering on that prospect. American Tattoo is a troublesome fourth selection.
Race 10
$30,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
9- Height
Bill Mott’s been having a bit of a tough time finding the winner’s circle, but I think he has a solid runner here. In his last start, he ran second to Fed Funds, who went on to win a pretty tough race next time out. Because F.F. got a perfect rail trip and this horse went very wide, one could make the argument that he was actually the better horse that day. Regardless, he’s entering his third start off the layoff and stays at a level he competed well at last month. He’ll stretch out in distance, but I think Mott is trying to win with him, so he wouldn’t put him in an unrealistic spot.
2- Tactician
In his first start off the layoff back in May, this gelding ran pretty well and was claimed by Robertino Diodoro. He’s excellent with his claimers and is also adding blinkers to a horse that’s worn them previously. Diodoro is struggling at Saratoga, but this is the type of runner he wins with, and based on his past performances, I think he can compete here.
8- Double Advantage
Todd Pletcher’s colt here ran fine in his first start at Gulfstream, and will make his second start up here at Saratoga. That race did produce a winner next time out, and I think he ran well enough, as first starts go. The addition of Irad Ortiz is encouraging as well, and while I think there are more dangerous runners here, I’d imagine that he’ll appreciate the added distance.
3- Buona Fina
This ridgling was simply outdueled last time out, but I don’t think he could have beaten Heirloom Kitten under any circumstance. He earned a solid figure that day that would likely win this race if he could repeat it. Visually, however, I wasn’t too impressed by it, and get the feeling that he was assisted by the wet track.