This is a very solid Sunday card at Saratoga, and while we’ll try to make some money on it, no one’s talking about a bunch of claimers right now. The result of yesterday’s Alabama Stakes is what’s on my mind.
Swiss Skydiver sure made the three-year-old picture interesting yesterday, didn’t she? I love the idea that of the top four dirt three-year-olds in the country right now, two are colts and two are fillies. However, I’m not sure the 102 Beyer she earned is good enough to beat Gamine, and it certainly isn’t good enough to beat Tiz the Law.
She’s unfortunately a little overshadowed, which is a shame, because if Art Collector was the early Derby favorite, she’d be right in the mix. This is a slightly unfair comparison, but her performance yesterday was on par with with three of Justify’s TC race victories. I’ll be looking forward to seeing her in three weeks’ time.
Note: The first eight are up, the last two are inbound.
Race 1
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
There are only six fillies in this maiden race, but it seems as though there are a few promising runners looking to step forward. My top four:
3- Cantata
Steve Asmussen’s two-year-olds continue to shine, and here’s one that sold for $950,000 at auction. The filly has had a couple of nice workouts recently and has a 366 Tomlinson for the distance. I don’t know this for sure, but I think Asmussen has had the most successful juveniles at Saratoga so far, and this could very well be another member of the cavalry charge. Get it? Cavalry, like horses? Here at Paddy’s Picks, people come for the handicapping and stay for the wordplay.
1- School of Thought
Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, Klaravich Stables. That’s all I’ve got.
6- Nevisian Sunrise
This is Chad Brown’s other firster, and the argument can be made that she’s a little sharper on paper. A couple of solid workouts accompany a 405 Tomlinson for the distance, and Jose Ortiz is a sign that Brown is trying just as hard to win with this one.
4- Stone Town
Bill Mott’s firsters don’t often show much on first asking, so this filly’s debut is pretty impressive. The speed figure wasn’t quite there, but it’s very likely she improves in her second attempt.
Order: 3 1 6 4
Cantata and Steve Asmussen will have to take on two Chad Brown firsters here, but I think she’s capable of taking them on in her debut. Stone Town is the only one in my top four with experience, but I’m not sure she’ll manage to improve enough to win this one.
Race 2
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
This is a very stout maiden claiming field, and would be a high-level maiden special weight at nearly any other track in the country. We’re very spoiled sometimes at Saratoga:
3- Seize the Hay
Carpe faeno? Back in June, this colt ran in a maiden special weight at a mile and a quarter and struggled behind talented runners like Shamrocket and Bail Out. Todd Pletcher gave him a short break, drops him in class, and cuts him back to a mile here, a much better spot for him. Pletcher also recruits Irad Ortiz to ride, the jockey that rode him to his best career finish in his debut.
2- Complex System
2B- Forward Curve
This is a very dangerous Klaravich entry, starting with Chad Brown Starter Complex System. The colt hasn’t yet been able to put two races together without a layoff, and got time off again after his start back in June. However, despite all the time off, he’s never really run a bad race, and the class relief will likely help him here. Meanwhile, the other half of the entry is also interesting, as Jorge Abreu enters Forward Curve in his first start. The gelding hasn’t exactly been lighting it up in the morning, but Abreu is excellent with firsters and recruits Joel Rosario to ride. He also has a 381 Tomlinson for the distance, which means that he may be able to overcome a tough field in his first try.
6- Feeling Dangerous
I’m a little intrigued by this gelding. In his three-year-old debut, this runner took a drop in class but improved off his two-year-old form. His two dirt starts at Aqueduct muddy his form, but turf is clearly his preferred surface. In his second start off the layoff, he can very well improve, and new jockey Luis Saez seems to agree.
1A- Lokoya Road (SCRATCHED)
This Michael Maker trainee is very live, as he ran very well at the Fair Grounds early in his three-year-old season. It’s very likely he’s improved since then, and the class drop is an appropriate one as he enters Saratoga. However, coming off so much time off, I suspect that he may just need a race, and that’s reinforced by the idea that Tyler Gaffalione is riding for Maker instead of Irad Ortiz.
Order: 3 2/2B 6 1A (Note: The 1A, Lokoya Road, is scratched.)
In a very tough field, I think Seize the Hay has been best prepared by Todd Pletcher to win here. The Klaravich entry is very impressive and will prove tough to beat, however. Feeling Dangerous is a little interesting at a price, because he makes sense on paper. Lokoya Road probably doesn’t deserve the disrespect of fourth (technically fifth) in my ranking here, because he’s extremely qualified in his own right.
Race 3
$25,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a reasonable field in a reasonable race, very standard for the NYRA circuit and one I’ve handicapped at least 50 times since I’ve started this website. You’d think I’d have them down by now:
4- Rude Awaking
The first race off the layoff on the turf was a total waste of time as an attempt to win, but it came in handy as a freshener for this start. Before the break, this filly was constantly improving and capped off the Aqueduct meet with a very solid 73 BSF victory. If she can return to that form, I think she’ll be very competitive here, and Linda Rice has been hot as of late.
5- Lady C
Coming out of Thistledown, this filly ran very well upstate, finishing second in a conditional claiming race. Her background isn’t as humble as it seems, however, because she was racing well at Oaklawn against Timely Tradition earlier this year. I think she can compete here, but I would’ve liked to see her win her last start before she tried the next level.
2- Pick Up the Fone
This Todd Pletcher filly has really come alive since leaving Jorge Navarro’s barn. After winning a $20,000 claiming race at Gulfstream, Pletcher shipped her up to Saratoga, where she outran her odds to finish second at this level with a 73 BSF. This makes her a contender in this race, and there’s no real reason why I think she’ll finish third instead of first. The difference between her and my other selections is negligible.
6- Our Lady of Loreto
This filly’s speed figures are lacking, but her greatest asset will be her early speed here. In a small field, she holds an advantage as the only one that’s inclined to go to the front, which makes her much more dangerous. Rudy Rodriguez and Ricardo Santana connected to win with this runner last time out, and I think she’ll take a step forward here with a favorable trip.
Order: 4 5 2 6
Rude Awaking has a chance to improve in her second start off the layoff, which sets her apart from some of the other contenders. Lady C is an extremely qualified favorite that I’m going against on principle. Pick Up the Fone is just as capable of winning here as the other two, while Our Lady of Loreto will try to wire them, a very real possibility.
Race 4
$40,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
Whoever wins this race is a shoe in for the Breeders’ Cup. That’s not true at all, but I made you do a double take, didn’t I? In reality, this race isn’t all that interesting, but there is a fun long shot to play around with. My top four:
2- Lido Key
This filly has been running professionally for some time now at higher levels, and takes a drop in class here for Ken McPeek. If she can run back to some of his better recent performances, he shouldn’t have much trouble here, but she hasn’t won in awhile either, which makes her prospects a little trickier than a clean cut favorite should be.
6- Skye Snow
She ran well enough at Gulfstream for Michael Maker to ship her up here off the layoff, a rather successful angle for him at this meet. Irad Ortiz signs on to ride, and assuming she progresses naturally, she could easily have a say in this race. The main thing is the time off, which could dull her performance a little at short odds.
9- Sterling Beauty
I originally tossed this filly, and then I un-tossed her when I considered the rest of the field. Last year, she had a real iron horse season in a quest to break her maiden, and she finally did it in September and took some much needed rest. She’s only raced three times since, and made her first turf start of 2020 last time out. That didn’t go so well as she was overwhelmed by a starter allowance field, but this seems like a more serious attempt to win this time around. David Donk has two starters in this race but this one is being ridden by Jose Ortiz and is only making her second turf start of the year. I think she can improve in her three-year-old, and the price will most likely be an attractive one.
5- Tradeable
I don’t love this filly’s last start or any of the runners coming out of it. She was the best of the bunch that day, however, and James Ferraro seems to have found the right distance for her. She could contend for a minor prize here.
Order: 2 6 9 5
Lido Key and Skye Snow deserve the attention they’re getting, and I prefer the McPeek trainee of the two of them. Sterling Beauty is a very intriguing long shot that I don’t plan on leaving out, but I’ll be very content to leave out Tradeable.
Race 5
$80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Four-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Four Races, 1 3/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
This race is just below the status of a stakes race, with several very talented runners dropping from those ranks for a breather. My top four:
6- Nakamura
He hasn’t been in allowance competition since last August, and that was also the last time he won. Since then, he’s been running very well in stakes competition but hasn’t quite been able to break through against the likes of Zulu Alpha and Sadler’s Joy. He gets some class relief here, and while he has absolutely no early speed to speak of, he’ll likely win if the race comes down to a stampede in the stretch.
1- Pillar Mountain (Ire)
This horse was scheduled to run in a very tough turf stakes recently but was scratched. This is a much easier landing spot for him in his second start of the year, and based on his start back in June, he’s very competitive here. Joel Rosario isn’t sticking around to ride, but Irad Ortiz works even better with Todd Pletcher. He loves this distance and has run very well at Saratoga in the past, making him a prime selection here.
4- He’s No Lemon
He came up short in his last start in the G2 Elkhorn, finishing behind fellow runner Nakamura. This is a much more reasonable spot for Graham Motion’s other runner in here, although Javier Castellano doesn’t work as well with him as John Velasquez. He was running very well in the allowance level last year before he started in stakes competition, and I think he’ll respond well with some class relief.
2- Midnight Tea Time
He seems to be a step below his counterparts here, but that doesn’t mean he can’t run for a minor reward. He’s 0-for-7 at Saratoga, but has finished in the money five times.
Order: 6 1 4 2
This appears to be a three-horse race between Nakamura, Pillar Mountain, and He’s No Lemon, and I’ll be taking them in that order as they all find a reasonable spot to race here after taking on much tougher competition in previous starts.
Race 6
$30,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a straightforward that doesn’t deserve my praise, but also doesn’t deserve my sass. It is what it is:
7- Striking Speed
I think a lot of Linda Rice’s cold streak at Belmont came from the fact that she seemed to run all of her dirt horses in the turf off the layoff. They’re all back on dirt now and they’ve been doing great, and I think this one will follow that pattern. This gelding ran very well with a short lead on the front end in his first start earlier this year. He got the freshener back in June and he returns here with Jose Lezcano on his back, which I think is a sign that this is the start to win here. The fact that there won’t be much of a pace presence in the race only helps his case.
4- Breithorn
This colt finished second by a head last time out behind Lost in Rome, but based on the trips they got, I’m fairly confident that he’s the better runner here. Bill Mott tried to find a softer spot for him last time out and continues here with another smaller drop to $30,000. There’s not much pace in the race, which might put him a little closer to the lead than he’s accustomed to. I still think he’ll run fairly well here third time off the break.
5- Seize the Day
Rodolphe Brisset acquired this horse from Bob Baffert’s barn and put him on turf off the layoff. It didn’t work out but may serve as a freshener for this gelding’s return to dirt. He ran very well last March for Baffert in a defeat to Shooters Shoot, a talented three-year-old that teased a run for the Kentucky Derby. In his second start off the layoff, he can certainly improve here on the drop in class.
2- Lost in Rome
He finished ahead of fellow runner Breithorn last time out, but I think his competitor is the better option in this race. That doesn’t mean that this gelding isn’t a contender here, and his race two starts back was a very competitive one against some good runners. He’s very reasonable here, but I just prefer others.
Order: 7 4 5 2
Striking Speed will have a distinct pace advantage in this race, and should also improve naturally second time off the layoff for a very successful trainer. Breithorn got a bit of tough racing luck in the stretch and should turn the tables on Lost in Rome in this start. Seize the Day is the wild card in the race, and I think Rodolphe Brisset will have him ready to go for his return to dirt.
Race 7
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
There’s a fairly obvious runner in this allowance race, but I think the pace scenario is going to be different from many allowances like it. There are a lot of long sprinters trying a small stretchout here, so it may be a bit quicker in front. My top four:
6- La Hara (Ire)
This gelding is coming out of one of the most live allowances of the Saratoga meet. The winner that day was Colonel Liam, who ran yesterday in the Saratoga Derby Invitational and competed well. He didn’t replicate his 100 BSF, but he did contend with runners like Decorated Invader and Gufo, which makes La Hara three lengths slower than the best three-year-olds turfers in the country. He’s the top pick here.
7- Oak Hill
Albert Stall has been having a very solid meet, and this colt was a part of that early success. He ran very competitively in his last start on the front end stretching out to a mile to break his maiden, and while I don’t believe he’ll work out the same trip here, I don’t think that diminishes his qualifications too much. Javier Castellano returns to ride, and I think he’ll give a solid account of himself in his first test against winners.
10- Mo Gotcha
This gelding should be flying to the lead from the far outside, which should secure a hot pace in this race. That being said, he doesn’t win often but never runs badly, so even under difficult conditions, I don’t believe the pace will collapse completely if he’s the one driving things up front.
9- Duress
Despite some gate trouble, this colt ran very well off the layoff to finish second ahead of fellow runner Mo Gotcha. He could improve second time off the layoff for Thomas Albertrani, but I wonder if a mile is a little longer than he’d like to go. That being said, Saratoga doesn’t offer longer sprints, so a mile is probably better for him than five and a half furlongs.
Order: 6 7 10 9
La Hara is coming off a very good race, and if he can repeat that performance, he shouldn’t encounter much trouble here. Oak Hill and Mo Gotcha will likely set a pace that I believe should hold well, as they both seem equipped to handle this distance. Duress should manage to sit a perfect trip and could surprise me here second time off the layoff.
Race 8
$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a huge field here and should be an entertaining race, but I don’t really like any particular runner. That happens occasionally, and it usually means there’s a long shot I can’t find. Let’s take a shot:
11- Big Q
Yes, I’m extremely concerned about the outside post, and I’m also not comfortable with a three-year-old in a deep race like this. However, this filly, hasn’t raced much at all this year, running even less than most given the pandemic. She last raced in January after tailing off a little from her best performances at two before returning in June. Coming off a five-month layoff, she performed well to finish second in front of talented NY-breds like Naked Avenger. This is her second start off the break for Gary Gullo and will be her first test against older horses. However, John Velasquez is sticking around and turning down a few potential mounts to do so. I think there’s something to her here, and I don’t like much else, so it could be the right spot.
6- Bertranda
Alright, this mare is clearly sensible because she just cleared this condition and is somehow still eligible to run at it again. She also defeated a few runners in that race that she’s facing off against today, and Irad Ortiz is staying to ride for Mertkan Kantarmaci. That’s all great, and while my one knock may seem small, it’s grown a little in my head since I noticed it. She doesn’t usually train poorly in the morning and did very well as she prepared for her last start. Her only workout since was at three furlongs, and 41 seconds for that distance is about as bad as I’ve ever seen. I’m not saying that a single workout should discourage enthusiastic bettors, but she needed everything she had to win last time out, and if she isn’t as sharp this time around…
2- Fierce Lady
In her last start, she missed the start and rushed up to take the early lead. As a result, I was ready to forgive that start and pick her to win. Then I took a closer look at her past performances and noticed that she always seems to have trouble at the start. In addition to that, there’s a lot of speed in this race that will prevent her from getting things her way. She can definitely improve second time off the layoff for Rudy Rodriguez, but this may be yet another improbable loss for the Rudy/Rosario connection.
3- Jc’s Shooting Star
Hmm. I understand that this horse is probably a turf horse first, and I also realize that he’s run in the money 12 out of 20 times in the dirt despite only winning once on the surface. However, he ran very well on the turf at this level last time out, and hasn’t been this low on the dirt in a very long time. Jose Ortiz is riding for David Donk again here, and while I’m only cautiously optimistic, I’ve also seen worse 10-1 shots.
Order: 11 6 2 3
I think Big Q is sitting on a big race here, and while I’m concerned it won’t be enough against older horses, I do consider it a weak group. Bertranda is the most highly qualified runner in the race, but I have a bad feeling she’s about to tail off a bit. We’ll see. Fierce Lady doesn’t seem to be in the best spot here, and the poor trip she got last time out was a habit of hers. Jc’s Shooting Star is a big maybe for me here.
Race 9
Saratoga Oaks Invitational for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 3/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
This is a great race featuring some top-notch turf fillies, and whoever wins here can look forward to a spot in the Breeders’ Cup. I mean it this time. My top four:
2- Enola Gay
I had this runner in her last start and felt like a real smarty, but a lucky smarty. I don’t really know how she got up to win the photo that day because she didn’t seem at all interested in winning. I knew that Shug McGaughey would have her a little sharper off the layoff than his typical runner, and he had her just sharp enough. I think she’ll be even more prepared for this start, and in her second start off the layoff, I don’t think the result will be so close.
1- Speaktomeofsummer
This is an excellent filly that improved significantly in her second start off the layoff, getting up enough to defeat fellow runner Stunning Sky by a head. In her third start of 2020, I expect her to deliver a similar performance, but that may be the issue. She showed her hand last time, and while its good to be an established runner, there may be a few that can improve here to beat her this time.
6- Ricetta (GB)
Bill Mott isn’t the first person that comes to mind when shipping horses from Europe, but he seems to have a qualified one here. It’s also weird to see Javier Castellano riding for Mott, and all of those combined makes this seem like a Chad Brown job that Mott’s taking credit for. The filly seems to be coming off some solid races overseas, but I’d like to see her run against Americans before I support her to highly. Her trainer is also notoriously patient.
4- Stunning Sky
She’s another contender here for Michael Maker, having just come up short to Speaktomeofsummer last time out. I don’t see much of a reason for her to improve here, but she’s also far from out of it. She’s a professional runner that can perform well.
Order: 2 1 6 4
Enola Gay has won me money in the past, and I’m going to keep going with her here. Everyone else seems more established, but she’s been running just as well as them with what I believe was a so-so performance last time.
Race 10
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
6- Ink Splotz
This feels like the type of race that can get wired, and this is the runner to do it. His last start was a toss because it was on the turf, and in the race before that, he was a 49-1 shot and didn’t manage to get the lead. Three starts back, he defeated Yankee Empire with a clear early lead to break his maiden with a 68 BSF. That was his first race off the layoff, and I’m willing to wager he’s taken a step forward since. Luis Saez signs on to ride for Orlando Noda, and they woke fantastically together. I think this is the race for them.
2- Yankee Empire
This gelding took a big step forward to break his maiden last time out for John Kimmel, and the 77 speed figure her earned there makes him a strong contender. However, this will be his first test against winners, and I don’t believe he’ll get the same trip he got in his last victory. John Velasquez comes back to ride, and I think he’ll perform well without replicating his last performance.
7- Dangerous Edge
He improved last time out when Irad Ortiz took the ride at 11-1 odds, and it’s great to see him return here for John Toscano. My issue is that his only victory in nine starts came in a statebred maiden claimer, which is a weaker field than the ones his competitors have taken down. He’s live based on his last start, but I prefer others.
3- Southern Bridge
Bill Mott seemed insistent that this colt was a turf runner since last year, but he finally seems to have given up and put him on dirt. He’s taking a drop in class and has a few speed figures that are competitive, but I really don’t like the fact that Mott tried him on turf so many times before. It demonstrates that this is the backup plan, while others in this race are entering with much more direction.