Saturdays are always the best at Saratoga, and this card doesn’t disappoint. Sistercharlie will make her return in the G2 Ballston Spa while a compact but talented field will face off in the G1 Vanderbilt. There’s a ton of talent and value in all of the races in between, which is exactly what bettors are looking for in August at The Spa.
Race 1
$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This is a very good statebred race to begin an excellent card. It’s the type of race that I enjoy looking at, and I happen to like the top four I came up with:
1- Speightstown Gal
At Belmont, the winner in stampede-like turf races is usually the runner that makes the final move, but that wasn’t the case when this filly won her last start. Instead, she made a powerful move at the top of the stretch to kick clear of the field and then hung on late. The horses that she held at bay that day, My Sassy Sarah and Light in the Sky, went on to finish first and second in a rematch at the same level in their next start.
8- A Little Faith
I picked this filly to win in a race at this level last month. She was scratched that day, and when I look back, the fact that that race was at seven furlongs made her much more enticing than she is today. Now she’ll be attempting to run at her shortest distance ever, and while she has a 420 Tomlinson that indicates she can handle it, it’s not a certainty as seven furlongs was. Bruce Levine handled her extremely well in her three-year-old season, entering her in multiple positions where she could succeed. She lost to fellow runner First Appeal in her last start of 2019, but that was a result of a troubled trip. From the way I’m raving about her, I guess I still have a soft spot. However, the fact remains that Bruce Levine is 0-for-17 with horses coming off 180+ day layoffs, and while her workout tab is fine, she was a veterinarian’s scratch in that start last month.
6- Lovely La La
It’s concerning that her first start out of Chad Brown’s barn was a flop, but I don’t believe that this filly is as bad as that last race. Michelle Nevin is not effective with horses coming off long layoffs, and does much better second time out. Manny Franco is sticking around too, though he’s been a little cold at the meet thus far. My real knock on this runner is that she has a little trouble finding the winner’s circle. In 12 starts, she has two wins (both as the favorite) and five second place finishes.
4- Jc’s Shooting Star
I feel like this mare has been around for my entire life. She’s one of the few runners here taking a drop in class after she was clearly overmatched in several stakes competitions. She fits well enough here for David Donk, and Jose Ortiz stays on to ride. However, the eight-year-old is still winless at Saratoga and clearly prefers a longer sprint. She could run well, but I’ll look elsewhere.
Order: 1 8 6 4
I think that Speightstown Gal and A Little Faith are the most interested in winning in this field, and I’m giving Speightstown Gal the edge because of a very good recent performance. Lovely La La and Jc’s Shooting Star are very good runners that I would probably use underneath.
Race 2
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a perfectly acceptable statebred maiden race, though it wasn’t nearly as compelling to me as other races on the card. My top four:
7- Midnight Surprise
I don’t particularly like any runner with experience in this field, so I’m taking a shot with a firster. This Todd Pletcher trainee has been training very well and has a 398 Tomlinson for the distance. Pletcher is very good with first time starters and recruits Irad Ortiz to ride.
2- Vivazano
I picked this horse to win in his last start, and he let me down on a wet track. She had a bit of a tough trip that day anyway, something I can forgive as she returns here for Phillip Gleaves, who’s brought a couple of decent runners to Saratoga already. Javier Castellano returns to ride, and I think she can return to her previous form here.
5- Munnings Muse
This horse hasn’t raced since June 2019, and Gary Gullo is 0-for-10 off of long layoffs. That being said, her only start early in her two-year-old season was excellent. Earning a 71 BSF, she finished second to Fierce Lady and finished ahead of Violent Point. Neither of those horses are monsters, but they’ve proven to be very solid horses. Joel Rosario remembers her and returns to ride, and if she improves from two to three, she’ll have a very dangerous chance here.
8- Bankers Daughter
This filly didn’t show much improvement in her first start off the layoff, and the start after that was hopeless in the turf. For some reason, Michael Miceli has all of the statistics to suggest this filly is live this time around, right down to his unnatural comparability with Dylan Davis. I’m not counting her out completely.
Order: 7 2 5 8
I’m going with the firster for Pletcher because I think that he’s running against a fairly weak field of experienced maidens. Vivazano was my top pick last time out, and while she disappointed that day, I get the feeling that she can turn it around. Munnings Muse is a bit of a shot in the dark while Bankers Daughter has some very live connections.
Race 3 (FULL ANALYSIS)
Ballston Spa Stakes (G2) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This stakes wouldn’t be too notable if Sistercharlie wasn’t in it. This will be her return to the track for the first time since her third place finish in the Breeders’ Cup last year. It’s a graded stakes and a small field, so I’ll be doing a full analysis and looking at every horse in post position order, starting with:
1- Call Me Love (GB)
Her first start in the U.S. was the G3 Beaugay, and she performed well well. However, her second start in the G2 New York was less inspiring, and for a meeting with Sistercharlie, I’d really like to see a horse coming off a career-best run. As is, she’s an interesting option that can’t be valued too highly.
2- Bramble Queen
This mare has won two races in a row for Mike Dini, but doesn’t appear fast enough to win here.
3- North Broadway
I’m hunting wabbits. Chad Brown and Peter Brant have two horses in this race, and this one appears to have virtually no chance. Last year, Brown often entered a horse named Thais with Sistercharlie for the sole purpose of setting a strong pace for her to close into. I suspect that this horse will be serving a very similar purpose.
4- Another Broad (MTO)
This mare likely won’t race.
5- Sistercharlie (Ire)
There is no better stretch runner in the country than The Sister. For two years now, this mare has been performing at the zenith of American turf racing. She’s won seven of her ten starts and has been generally brilliant while winning seven Grade 1 stakes races. Her last race was the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Fillies and Mares Turf, and she suffered her worst defeat stateside in a third place finish. There’s only one horse in this race that can feasibly run with her in her six-year-old debut here, but then again, there are only four horses in the United States that have ever finished in front of her. She’s as tough as they come.
6- Starship Jubilee
This mare really took off late last year and has won five of her last six for trainer Kevin Attard. Yeah, I don’t know either, but her trainer could honestly be a broom at this point. Her best performances were last autumn, and she either didn’t have to exert herself to win early this year or she’s taken a step back in form. What’s important now is that she delivers a fastball in this one, because it’s the only way she can pick up the top prize against the best horse she’ll ever have to face.
Order: 5 4 1 2
I really like Sistercharlie and her role in the sport, so I’ll be rooting for her without putting much money on the result. Starship Jubilee is a talented mare in her own right, but she’ll need her absolute best to win here. From there, I believe it becomes a matter of sorting out the also-rans, although Call Me Love has a fair chance at redemption after a disappointing start last time out.
Race 4
$35,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
We’re traveling back down to Earth for this race, a pedestrian claiming event that coms down to a few contenders I’ve listed below:
4- Gone Glimmering
This is a tricky race because Tom Amoss seems to have two evenly matched contenders facing off. I’m taking this one on top because of the presence of Jose Ortiz, a jockey he works immensely well with at Saratoga. After winning her very first pair of races at Indiana Grand, she hasn’t won since, but in her defense, she’s been in some pretty unreasonable spots, including the G1 Alcibiad. Her last start is really the only one where she doesn’t get an excuse, as she very well could have won that alone on the lead but finished second. She’s obviously a sprinter and her last start was an improved speed figure, so I think she’s here with a very fair chance.
5- Wedontbelieveher
Luis Cardenas and Linda Rice work well together, but really, she couldn’t find anyone better? Anyway, this filly won her last start and was claimed by Rice off Rudy Rodriguez. Going from one great claiming trainer to another isn’t a very big deal, even when Rodriguez’s runners tend to regress after they leave his barn. Her last two races were very solid and could win this race and it’s really just a matter of putting two wins in a row together, something this horse hasn’t managed yet.
3- Lady C
Tom Amoss recruited David Cohen to ride his other runner here, and they don’t work too well together. Even still, this horse’s last form makes him an attractive offer in this race. She’s outrun her odds at several points this year, including a second place finish at 24-1 in a starter allowance two back. She was favored in his last start but finished third, in part because of a troubled trip and also a result of a distance that may have been too short. She returns to six and a half furlongs here, where she’s 2-for-2, and she’ll take a lot of well-deserved attention from bettors.
7- Spanish Point
What’s Jorge Abreu trying to do here? Gulfstream is still open, but in his third start of the meet, he brings this horse up the coast to take on claimers at Saratoga? That would usually be reasonable, since trainers like to win up here with anything. However, he’s 0-for-2 at the meet this far, and this filly ran extremely poorly in her last start, to the point that I suspect there’s something wrong. Saratoga js an extremely popular place to claim horses, and I think Abreu knows that. I’m wary at 3-1 odds.
Order: 4 5 3 7
Gone Glimmering is being given the better jockey of Amoss’ two runners, and I’m supporting that decision with a wager. Wedontbelieveher is coming off a win for Linda Rice, and I can’t find a reason for her to regress in any way. Lady C is the other Amoss runner that I’m fading, while Spanish Point deserves my suspicion at 3-1 odds on the morning line.
Race 5
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
There aren’t as many qualified turf runners in this race as I had hoped, but it should be an interesting contest that I feel fairly confident handicapping. My top four:
10- Standup
This gelding’s last trip was way better than it appears on paper, and the fact that it was an improvement over his previous form is all the more impressive. That race was essentially a carousel, with Yes and Yes and fellow runner Big Wonder running 1-2 all the way around the track. Meanwhile, this runner ran from out of the clouds and wide around the turn, and still made up ground in the stretch to finish third. Robert Falcone wants to try this level again, but this time, he’s replaced Reylu Gutierrez with Joel Rosario. He just put in a great workout to prepare for this start, and I believe he’s going to deliver this time around.
9- Sir Alfred James
He ran very well in his first start to break his maiden on dirt, so he must have some turf form, or else Albert Stall wouldn’t enter him here. It also helps that Stall succeeds 30% of the time when making this surface switch and recruits Irad Ortiz to take the mount. The horse himself is obviously a little unknown as a grass runner, but the connections are there and they indicate he can make the transition smoothly.
4- Three Outlaws
Every few races, a trainer has tried this horse on the dirt, but despite their intuitions, he’s very clearly a turf runner. Rob Atras realizes this, and in his first start in his barn, this gelding will be returning to his preferred surface. Now, Atras isn’t good off of long layoffs and is primarily a dirt trainer, so there are some obvious reasons to go against this horse. However, he possesses natural ability, and that can’t be counted out entirely.
2- Big Wonder
Hey, Naipaul Chatterpaul cracks a top four! That being said, he’s fourth for a reason. This gelding has been on a brutal racing schedule lately, running five times in the last two months. He’s actually run fairly well, and while his mediocre trainer will eventually run him into the ground, he’s outrun his odds on several occasions in this stretch. He still hasn’t won yet though, and his race two back, where he finished ahead of fellow runner Standup, was heavily assisted by a speed-favoring track. I’m not counting him out entirely, but I don’t expect him to win either.
Order: 10 9 4 2
I really, really like Standup here, as I believe the pace scenario hurt her badly last time at Belmont and will help her immensely here at Saratoga. Sir Alfred James has never run on turf before, but there’s no reason to suspect he can’t handle it. In fact, the evidence suggests otherwise. Three Outlaws, on the other hand, is a little fishy as he moves into Rob Atras’ barn, and Big Wonder was aided by the pace scenario that helped Standup back in June.
Race 6
$25,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This race is a little frustrating because a lot of the big contenders are taking massive drops in class that may indicate their best days are behind them. As a result, I’ve decided to fish a little for a price:
7- Malpais
Maybe I’m reaching a little with this one, but I have an odd feeling that he’s going to show up in this Joe Sharp trainee is sitting on a big race. On paper, he seems to be headed in the wrong direction, but he’s been competing at a much higher level of racing than the one he’ll be competing at here. He’s lost to C Z Rocket in two straight starts, and he’s a horse that would never be a part of this race. Sharp is removing his blinkers, which is an angle that works very well for him, and it indicates that he’s still trying to win.
8- Mojovation
Now, this horse towers above the rest of this field, and Danny Gargan is excellent with newly claimed horses. My issue is that he’s almost certainly going to lose him here for less than he purchased him for. He performed just fine earlier this year at the $40,000 level, but off the layoff, he’s entered for a $25,000 tag. In other words, something during this horse’s time off has compelled Gargan to put $15,000 on the line. I don’t love that, though I certainly won’t be too surprised if he handles this field.
1- Clench (SCRATCHED)
1A- Bronzed
Both of these runners could run well here, but they both have glaring issues that could hinder them. Clench is making a roughly lateral move after performing poorly at Monmouth last month. He’s run very well in the past for Jason Servis, but his first start with Brad Cox left something to be desired. He’ll have to recapture his 2019 form, and while he’s been training well and gets Irad Ortiz here, difficult to figure him out completely until he runs. Meanwhile, Bronzed hasn’t raced since last August, and will be going from ungraded stakes competition to a $25,000 claiming race. Again, if his form is consistent from last year, he’ll probably win here, but I don’t feel like taking that chance.
5- Aristocratic
Every now and again, this gelding wires the field and kills all of my bets. He’ll try it again here, and it’s interesting to note that his last start at this claiming level was a six length victory at Aqueduct. He’s a very frustrating runner, as there’s no real rhyme or reason to his performances.
Order: 7 8 1/1A 5 (Note: The 1, Clench, is scratched.)
I’m willing to take a chance with Malpais because I can see the wheels turning in Joe Sharp’s head. I think he may have a sneaky runner here. Mojovation and Bronzed are both taking dramatic drops in class, and both concern me in equal measure. Aristocratic better not mess with me here.
Race 7
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds Which Have Never Won Two Races, One Mile on the Inner Turf
This is an excellent race of stakes-bound runners, and there are several that I would say have a legitimate chance. However, I like one runner much more than the others, since I picked him to win in a tougher spot last time out. My top four:
7- Proven Strategies
I picked him to defeat Decorated Invader last time out, so I have to take him here, right? He was a promising two-year-old, but he’s really come into his own at three. Since breaking his maiden, he’s only lost to two horses: Gufo and Decorated Invader. There’s an argument that those are the two best three-year-old turf runners around right now, but he’s held his own on both occasions. I really like him, and if he doesn’t go off as the favorite, I’ll be a very happy camper.
6- Perjury Trap
Before Gufo was defeating Proven Strategies, he actually finished third behind Perjury Trap as a two-year-old. That was this colt’s first turf start, and he impressed but hasn’t raced since. Chad Brown is very effective off of layoffs, and there’s reason to believe that this colt will improve from two to three. More importantly, bettors may get some value on a Brown runner, which is always nice.
8- Lonesome Fugitive (Ire)
These lightly raced Chad Brown runners are really wearing on me. At least this one has an excellent name, one of the best I’ve seen in awhile. There’s not much to talk about here; he improved significantly off the layoff and won impressively to break his maiden. He beat a competitive field that day, and there’s no reason he can’t win here. That being said, Perjury Trap was better at a younger age, and if they improve at the same rate, then maybe he’s beatable as the morning line favorite.
3- Don Juan Kitten
This colt was crushed by Proven Strategies two starts back, and has apparently not improved significantly since then. I think this is a three-horse race for first, but he’s good enough to fight for a minor prize.
Order: 7 6 8 3
I really like Proven Strategies here, and believe that he can take down the two Chad Brown runners. Perjury Trap makes a compelling case for improvement from two to three, while Lonesome Fugitive is a well-named and deserving favorite. I think it will come down to these three in what should be an eventful race.
Race 8
$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
I’m really liking these dirt allowances, because they feature the types of runners I enjoy handicapping but can never bet to win because they’re in deep graded stakes races. My top four:
1A- Money Moves
He had to improve significantly to remain undefeated through two starts, but he did exactly that for Todd Pletcher, upsetting a talented three-year-old field at Gulfstream last March with a 90 BSF. He’s coming off a layoff and is trying older horses for the first time, but I think he’ll be able to handle the task well, as Pletcher’s horses have been improving well off of layoffs recently.
3- Parsimony
Hey, it’s another member of the Doug O’Neill Middle East Pandemic Road Trip. This colt was running in the Los Alamtitos Derby back in the day as a maiden, which tells me that O’Neill has always regarded him highly. Since then, he’s sort of ambled along, winning a race in Dubai earlier this year. He improved in his second start off the layoff in the G2 Suburban behind Tacitus, which means that he’s getting some class relief here. Jose Ortiz is a good pickup, even though he doesn’t work with O’Neill often, and I think this horse can have a say against some lighter competition.
5- I Love Jaxson
He was a little disappointing in his first start off the layoff, but I’m willing to forgive that beaded on his previous form. The gelding won five of his last six starts before the break, improving all the time and putting up progressively larger speed figures. Linda Rice is professional when starting horses in their second races off breaks, and I think he’ll be back to his old self again here. My big problem is his late running style, which hasn’t been working too well recently.
6- Prioritize
This is another dead closer that may not benefit on the Saratoga dirt. Nonetheless, his first race off the layoff was excellent, as he finished second behind Its All Relevant. It was the best performance of his career, and Jimmy Bond keeps him at the same level in an attempt to seal the deal. This is a wide open race in which anything is possible, so the horse I’m listing fourth, could very well win here.
Order: 1A 3 5 6
I’m trying to get with the track here, which is why I’m supporting Money Moves and Parsimony over I Love Jaxson and Prioritize. That being said, this is a wide open race that I believe can go to anyone. Bettors should have some fun here.
Race 9
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
One of the great advantages of maintaining this website is that I’m beginning to recognize horses from race to race. This gives me a more intimate knowledge of their previous starts, because I know what was expected of them that day as well as the quality of the field they were up against. There are several runners I’ve seen in the past and like here, but maybe wouldn’t appreciate as much if I wasn’t handicapping everyday. My top four:
7- Mo Ready
Todd Pletcher has been red hot with runners transitioning from two to three, and this gelding showed a little promise last year. In November, he finished third behind Turned Aside and Maxwell Esquire, two very talented three-year-olds in open company. He’s facing statebreds in his first race off the layoff, and with Jose Ortiz abroad, I feel fairly confident about his chances.
4- Barleewon
I liked this colt’s chances last time out, and he came through for me at 9-5 odds. However, he did so in impressive fashion, which makes him competitive in his first start against winners. He seems to appreciate the distance and John Velasquez sticks around for Michael Stidham, and sometimes, horses that have trouble breaking their maiden can string together victories once they finally put the pieces together.
3- Simply
This is the gelding that Jose Ortiz chose not to ride, but at least Ricardo Santana gets to team up with Steve Asmussen. I liked his chances last time out as a Sam Houston shipper, and he ran well to finish third. Asmussen’s stretching him back out to a route distance, something he often does successfully. While he won’t get the same pace up front this time around, he’ll still likely be able to close well in his second race off the layoff.
12- Stanhope
This is another possible case of vast improvement from two to three, although I don’t believe he’s quite as compelling as Pletcher’s runner. This colt broke his maiden in his last start of 2019 against statebreds and hasn’t raced since. He moves from Shug McGaughey’s barn to Brad Cox’s, which is a lateral move between two great trainers. Javier Castellano is a huge jockey upgrade over Dylan Davis, and this horse may be competitive on first asking at three.
Order: 7 4 3 12
I really like Mo Ready here because Pletcher’s runners coming back off of breaks have been firing very well recently. Barleewon and Simply are both runners that interest me based on their last starts, but I’m giving Barleewon the edge because I like his last race a little more. Stanhope is also making his three-year-old debut, but Brad Cox is running a little cold now and he may just need a race off the break.
Race 10
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
The story tells itself in this race. Several older, well-established horses will have to take on a new sensation in the sprinting division. Whitmore and Firenze Fire have been through it all, but Volatile may represent a totally new, insurmountable challenge. Will they pass the torch, or do they still have something left to say as the racing world begins to look toward November? To find out, we have to break this race down completely, in post position order:
1- Lexitonian
This horse is coming off a victory in an optional claiming event, defeating Hog Creek Hustle in the process. However, she’s lost to Whitmore twice in the past nine months, and he may just be a step below his competition here.
2- Whitmore
After 21 starts and 12 victories, I’m willing to conclude that this beloved old-timer can handle six furlongs. For years now, he’s been a cornerstone of this sprinting division, and he’s always one to compete at this distance. He hasn’t won a G1 race in a long time, but I can guarantee that he’ll have his supporters out there.
3- Firenze Fire
I was very happy to see this horse win last time out in the G2 True North, as it proved that he was more talented than what Jason Servis was preparing for him. He hasn’t been around as long as Whitmore, but he’s long been established as a top sprinter in his own right. It’s great to see Irad Ortiz taking back his old mount, and hopefully he’s back to a point where he can comepte at this level.
4- Volatile
Will this race represent a changing of the guard? This colt was dominant in his last start, winning an ungraded stakes at Churchill by eight lengths with a 112 BSF. Steve Asmussen realizes what he’s capable of and immediately puts him in a Grade 1 against a pair of the best in the country. He’s a natural sprinter that’s been extremely impressive in his young career, and even if he doesn’t win today, the future seems bright.
5- Mind Control
Earlier this year, this colt would have been a serious contender in this race. The reason she’s a bit of a price is because of her poor performance in the G1 Carter in her first race off the layoff. She’s struggled a little off layoffs in the past, so I can forgive that start, particularly considering the fact that Gregory Sacco enters her in another G1 here. Sacco and John Velasquez work together exclusively when this runner is involved, so they race pretty well together. I’d consider him an interesting value play that can improve.
Order: 4 2 3 5
Volatile will have to duel here, but he’s proven he can do that. He’ll have to beat graded stakes runners, but he’s done that too, albeit at lower levels. Based on speed figures, his 101 BSF would have sufficed as competitive in this field, but then he earned a 112. He’s a future superstar, and as much as I love Whitmore, Firenze Fire, and Mind Control, they’re going to have their hands full here.
Race 11
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a cooldown after what should be a very exciting feature race, but honestly, this is the one to watch for bettors that want to win money. This is a wide open field that should be fairly unpredictable due to layoffs and potential improvement from a few runners. My top four:
11- Frenchie Frou Frou
Junior Alvarado is consistently riding this filly for Gary Sciacca, and honestly, that’s almost enough reason to bet her on its own. However, in three attempts, Sciacca is 2-for-3 transitioning horses from 2 sprints to a route, which provides even more appeal. This filly did fairly well on the turf sprinting last time out, and if she takes to added distance like Sciacca suspects, then I think she’ll pay well here. I may be reaching again, but at the beginning of this meet, I made a point of keeping an eye out for sneaky Sciacca horses. He’s going to win one race at this meet, and I don’t want to miss it and then look at the form afterwards and kick myself. This could be the one.
5- Timeless Journey
Christophe Clement entered the filly in a maiden special weight in her first start and she ran fine but was overwhelmed. A drop in class would suit her well, and she’ll make a very reasonable favorite. Joel Rosario is a nice addition too, although my wishful mind would like to think Junior Alvarado chose to ride the 11, even though that’s an impractical thought.
7- Brovia
In her first race of the year, Jimmy Bond was probably looking to warm her up for a start at Saratoga. She still performed well that day, but with Irad Ortiz now in the saddle, there’s reason to believe that today is the day.
8- Go Zappem
I don’t love to see a five-year-old maiden, but this mare ran fairly well on the turf last year and could win here if she brings that form back. However, David Cohen seems to be picking up a mount no one else wanted, which will lead me to look elsewhere.
Order: 11 5 7 8
Who’s with me on the Sciacca train? No one? Alright, then Clemente’s runner dropping into maiden claiming competition should run well here against softer field. Brovia is another live runner that should take a big step forward for Jimmy Bond.