It’s Whitney Day at Saratoga, and that deserves some special treatment. As one of the most stacked cards on the calendar during the most important meet in American horse racing, there are few better days for racing fans to enjoy.
Beyond the G1 Whitney, a race featuring superstars Life Is Good, Olympiad and Hot Rod Charlie, Saratoga is also hosting the G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational, G1 Test, G2 Glen Falls and the Lure Stakes. Many of these races will have implications in the Breeders’ Cup, featuring early showdowns between the best runners in the country and a few from elsewhere.
Did I sell you? Did I need to sell you? Is this a necessary paragraph as I desperately work toward my deadline? Probably not. Let’s get crack-a-lacking.
Race 1
$105,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
5- Red Route One
4- Mullingar
2- Alexis Zorba (GB)
7- Battle of Normandy
Order: 5 4 2 7
When Steve Asmussen turns to Joel Rosario at Saratoga, he usually has a live one, which makes Red Route One an excellent candidate to win on debut. Mullingar was flat in the first start of his career on dirt, but Bill Mott recruited Jose Ortiz to ride as he switches his colt to turf this time around. Alexis Zorba (GB) can improve for Joseph O’Brien in his second start stateside, but at 5-2 on the morning line, I feel compelled to look elsewhere. As a $500,000 purchase for Shug McGaughey, Battle of Normandy obviously has every chance to win here, but Kendrick Carmouche is an interesting riding addition for a trainer that is typically patient with talented horses.
Race 2
$30,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies And Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 1:08 p.m. EST
5- Mostly Harmless
4- She Caught My Eye
6- Afilada
1- School of Thought
Order: 5 4 6 1
After four starts on turf for trainer Marcelo Arenas, Mostly Harmless is back on the dirt in her first race off the claim for Carlos Martin. I don’t know if dirt is her preferred surface, but she’s getting Lasix and should have naturally matured since her last dirt start in February. She Caught My Eye is a lightly raced filly switching from Brad Cox to Bill Mott, who wins with 35% of his runners dropping from maiden special weights to the maiden claiming level. Afilada is a deserving favorite taking a small step down in class, but the filly has finished in the money six times in eight starts without winning. I’ll take a chance against her. School of Thought makes very little sense on paper after 11 winless starts, but I have to respect Irad Ortiz’s presence for trainer Bonnie Lucas.
Race 3
$45,000 Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 1:44 p.m. EST
4- Miss Alacrity
6- Impazible Drama
2- Khali Magic
8- Beautiful Karen
Order: 4 6 2 8
I love Wesley Ward runners and Miss Alacrity seems interesting returning to dirt after a drop in class last time out. If she can improve on dirt following a two-year-old season at the juvenile stakes level, she’ll be formidable against this field. Impazible Drama hasn’t won since Jan. 2021, but she was running fairly well earlier this year before regressing and taking time off. Her recent workouts suggest she’s coming into this race in razor sharp form, and I’ll take a chance that she’ll fire fresh off the layoff. Khali Magic is a deserving favorite that won at this conditional level last time out, but there are a few new foes this time around and I’m willing to make a small wager against her. Beautiful Karen is a contender in this field based on some of her starts earlier this year, but the front runner doesn’t win often. Linda Rice turns to Irad Ortiz off the layoff, however.
Race 4
$62,500 Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 2:18 p.m. EST
1- Eyes On Target/1A- Dream Works (Fr)
2- Good Governance (GB)
8- Turn of Events
4- Founder
Order: 1/1A 2 8 4
Chad Brown is running against himself while sharing an entry with Michael Maker. Fascinating. In any event, there are three horses that can feasibly win this race, and two of them are in the entry. I’m not necessarily fond of Eyes On Target after improving on a speed-favoring track last time out, but Dream Works (Fr) seems like a very formidable contender for Chad Brown shipping overseas from France. Brown has been patient in helping her transition to American surfaces, and I believe that patience will pay off.
I can’t believe that Good Governance (GB) is six years old, as he’s essentially the eclipse of every racing season. Since 2019, he has never made more than two starts in a year, and makes his second of 2022 after winning at Tampa Bay earlier this year. He’s an obvious contender. Turn of Events doesn’t appear quite as strong as the top contenders in this field, but he returned in 2022 with a strong showing at Monmouth in June that he can easily improve upon. Founder seems interesting dropping out of graded stakes competition and moving to Bill Mott’s barn, but it’s a little concerning that Chad Brown seems to have given up on the ridgling after a poor three-year-old campaign.
Race 5
Lure Stakes (Ungraded) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Not Won a Graded Stakes Race in 2022, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
Post Time: 2:50 p.m. EST
8- Somelikeithotbrown
1- Public Sector (GB)
2- Safe Conduct
4- Duke of Hazzard (Fr)
Order: 8 1 2 4
There’s a chance that Somelikeithotbrown has seen his best days as a racer, but the fact remains that he’s a very dangerous front runner that has run extremely well at Saratoga over the course of his career. Irad Ortiz had some attractive options in this race and chose this runner, and I’m not going to take that lightly. Public Sector (GB) is excellent at Saratoga as well and seems to be improving very well as a four-year-old. He’s a deserving favorite for trainer Chad Brown.
Safe Conduct hasn’t been as effective as the top pair in this field, but he has been improving, and his runner-up finish in the G3 Monmouth deserves some respect. Duke of Hazzard (Fr) hasn’t won in over two years, which is naturally concerning. That being said, he’s been competitive in all three of his starts in the United States and could put the pieces together at any time.
Race 6
$105,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
1- Crupi/1A- Point Proven
6- Rocket Can
2- Disarm
7- Western Ghent
Order: 1/1A 6 2 7
The Todd Pletcher duo seems formidable, as Crupi and Point Proven are both expensive purchases that seem poised to win on debut with top jockeys aboard. Rocket Can seems a little unassuming by comparison, but Bill Mott’s Into Mischief colt has been working well in the mornings and could make some noise in his first start.
Of the runners with experience, Disarm makes the most sense after closing well in his first start at Churchill Downs back in June. He could improve to win, but it’s generally better to side with first time starters at Saratoga. Western Ghent is a massive long shot after two poor starts, but D. Wayne Lukas’ ability to recruit Jose Ortiz is interesting after the two connected for a $49.20 winner in their last collaboration.
Race 7
Glen Falls Stakes (G2) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Inner Turf
6- War Like Goddess
2- Virginia Joy (Ger)
1- Temple City Terror
3- Petricor (GB)
Order: 6 2 1 3
Warlike Goddess is a profoundly talented mare with seven wins in nine starts, and her schedule this year is almost identical to last year, when she won the G3 Bewitch and G2 Glen Falls before taking the G1 Flower Bowl and moving on to the Breeders’ Cup. She’s the pick. Virginia Joy (Ger) seems like the only runner capable of challenging the favorite following a dominant showing in the G2 Sheepshead Bay and fourth place finish in the G1 New York. Temple City Terror and Petricor (GB) are talented runners in their own right, but are likely only competing for minor prizes.
Race 8
$115,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 4:34 p.m. EST
8- Saint Tapit
6- Hometown
7- Money Supply
9- Osbourne
Order: 8 6 7 9
Why should Chad Brown be the only one with precocious runners? Saint Tapit was a lights out winner on debut for Todd Pletcher last time out, winning by four lengths with a 93 BSF. The waters get deeper here, but I think there’s still room for him to improve. He’s a very interesting favorite. Hometown seemed well on his way to stakes competition early last year, but a setback in the spring seemed to cost him time and form. He has left Chad Brown’s barn and his former jockeys aren’t sticking around, but I’m hoping he still has something in the tank for trainer Rob Atras.
Money Supply is an up-and-coming colt in Chad Brown’s barn, but his speed figures haven’t been quite strong enough for me to consider him as a win candidate. The same applies to Osbourne, a former Derby contender moving in the right direction for trainer Ron Moquett.
Race 9
Test Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
1- Matareya
5- November Rein
4- Wish You Well
6- Hot Peppers
Order: 1 5 4 6
This is Matareya’s race to lose. Earning four straight victories in dominant fashion makes her an obvious favorite this time around, and someone would have to significantly improve to have any chance. November Rein took a big step forward in her second start off the layoff to take a conditional allowance at Belmont. She also had success at Saratoga as a two-year-old, though she’s never faced anyone like Matareya.
Wish You Well obviously had some sort of setback in her second start back in May, but George Weaver’s bold placement in her first start off the layoff suggests that she’s ready to run back to the 85 BSF she earned on debut. With five wins in seven starts, Hot Peppers seems to be the convenient second choice behind Matareya, but I get the sense that she’s a bit of a pretender at this level.
Race 10
Whitney Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:43 p.m. EST
4- Olympiad
6- Life Is Good
2- Hot Rod Charlie
1- Americanrevolution
Order: 4 6 2 1
The Whitney field is small but it’s stacked. Based on reputation alone, Life Is Good is the most deserving favorite out there, as his starts in the United States have been nearly unparalleled. But at this distance over this Saratoga track, I’m willing to take a chance against him. Olympiad has been brilliant in his last five starts, winning all of them by a combined margin of 16 ¼ lengths while improving each time. If this race was at seven furlongs or a mile, Life Is Good would have the advantage because of his early speed, but at 1 ⅛ miles, Olympiad has proven that he’s good enough to mount a serious challenge against the champ.
I’m betting that he can pull it off. It feels weird to consider Hot Rod Charlie as an afterthought, as he’s a very special runner in his own right. The colt is certainly capable of running on against the top pair, but I would like to see him get a little more wind in him at four before he can truly contend at the highest levels. Americanrevolution is a dangerous runner who has run big on many occasions in the past, but he still needs to prove that he belongs against contenders of this caliber.
Race 11
Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 6:20 p.m. EST
4- Nations Pride (Ire)
10- Stone Age (Ire)
6- Annapolis
3- Emmanuel
Order: 4 10 6 3
I loved Nations Pride (Ire) when he ran in the G1 Belmont Derby last time out, and he lost but impressed nonetheless, closing from ninth despite a glacial pace up front. Stone Age (Ire) was similarly impressive in that race, closing from 11th. That pair should be able to improve in their Saratoga debuts and make an extremely solid top pair.
Todd Pletcher has made an interesting decision with Annapolis, keeping his turf star out of the highest levels of three-year-old racing until now. The colt has been brilliant in four career starts against formidable opponents at shorter distances, and I think he has every chance to mix it up with the Europeans here. Emmanuel’s scratch in the G1 Belmont Derby changed the complexion of the race and allowed Classic Causeway to get away with absurdly slow fractions on the front end. I would like to see Pletcher’s other runner get a try at this level on the turf, though it is telling that Irad Ortiz is riding Annapolis this time.
Race 12
$88,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 6:53 p.m. EST
2- Your Mission
5- Sir John
9- Biondi
7- Walk Em Down
Order: 2 5 9 7
Your Mission closed well last time out at Saratoga in a race featuring a 25-second opening quarter and 52-second half mile. He’s bound to improve in his second start off the layoff. Sir John is a candidate for improvement following a pair of starts at two last year, as Bill Mott is surprisingly good at preparing three-year-olds off long layoffs.
Biondi was on the front end in that aforementioned race against Your Mission and he still lost to the Pletcher colt. He’s still a contender for a minor prize, but there are others to consider. Walk Em Down is a first time starter for Chad Brown, which makes him a contender by association, but Tyler Gaffalione is an odd rider for a Brown runner.