As I write this in Oceanside on Travers Day morning, thousands of people are packing into Saratoga Racecourse to get a seat for one of the greatest racing events of the year. I don’t want you to take me for a slouch. I’m a fervent table gatherer at Saratoga myself, having made the run countless times on annual trips to the Spa. Even for me though, those at the track today strike me as radicals.
There will come a year where I eventually go to the Travers and brave the capacity crowd. There are also days when I envy racegoers who can go to Saratoga whenever they want, and there may be a moment later today where I feel that same way. But as I brave the dawn and toss and turn on my couch on Long Island, writing to all of you this morning, I must admit that I’m rather content.
Instead of sprinting through the cooling August morning air, vying, bartering and bickering with middle-aged men who will consider it a day ruined without a table, I have the opportunity to truly enjoy one of my favorite days of racing. The Travers is special to me, as it sometimes feels like New York gets a bonus Triple Crown race each year.
While the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes feature precocious three-year-olds tackling new distances, the Travers always presents different challenges. Most horses in the race have seen 1 ¼ miles by this point, or at least something close to it. Some of these horses have been pointing to this race for months. Others discovered they had a shot a few weeks ago.
It’s a profoundly competitive race and almost always delivers. It was where Arrogate leapt into superstardom in 2016. It was where American Pharoah showed more heart in defeat than he ever did in victory in 2015. It was where Holy Bull and Concern dueled to the last in 1994. It was where Easy Goer came home in 1989. It was where Jim Dandy shocked the world in 1930.
The Travers always presents a new story, capable of becoming legend. This year is different from all the others in recent memory, as one horse has the power to take yet another step into history. Much, much more on her later.
Beyond the main event, Saratoga makes sure to stack the card with preeminent stakes races on both turf and dirt, often giving fans an early look at future Breeders’ Cup Champions. From a sporting perspective, this year’s Sword Dancer has especially caught my eye, as it features a rare duel between the best of Charles Appleby’s stable
In my opinion, it’s important to go to racetracks, just as it’s important to go to movie theaters and parks and museums. Public venues and activities are crucial to the community. But it is not uncommon at Saratoga for a card to be so powerful that it can be enjoyed anywhere. On no day does that hold more true than Travers Day. Let’s get into it.
Race 1
$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 11:20 a.m. ET
6- Empire Magic
8- Geopolitics
1- Calling an Audible
7- Blue Suede Sue
Order: 6 8 1 7
Empire Magic was slow out of the gate back in her May debut and showed some speed in her second start, holding on for place money. Danny Gargan switches to Luis Saez for this ride and the filly has put in some promising works at Saratoga in recent weeks. She feels like a strong candidate to improve. Geopolitics is far and away the fastest horse in this field on paper, but it feels irresponsible at this point to take her at a short price. After five straight second-place finishes, all within a length of first, she has certainly run out of excuses as an egregious money eater. It’s her race to lose, but we’ve heard that before. Calling an Audible is a bit of a bridesmaid herself, and she clearly hit a ceiling in the spring. Eddie Barker is keeping her at this level off the layoff and recruits Irad Ortiz to ride. Sometimes that’s all it takes. Blue Suede Sue is clearly Danny Gargan’s second priority in the race, as he assigned Saez to Empire Magic. Her first start wasn’t hopeless, however, and she stands the chance of improving to pick up the pieces for a minor prize.
Race 2
$80,000 Optional Claiming (N1X) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
Post Time: 11:53 p.m. ET
3- Vesting (Ire)
5- Green Light
1- Crystal Quest
4- Spirit Prince
Order: 3 5 1 4
Wide open affair. Vesting (Ire) might not get the lead in this one with a dirt-to-turfer bearing down on him from the outside. Still, the gelding took a really nice step forward on the Saratoga turf last time out, and a cutback in distance may be exactly what he needs to compete at this level. It’s worth taking Chad Brown at a price. Green Light has had some strangely flat finishes in two straight stakes starts after a commanding maiden victory at Churchill back in May. The results haven’t been there, but some class relief is sure to help him get back on the right track. Rodolphe Brisset seldom brings duds to Saratoga, so this one should be ready to go. Crystal Quest likely improved to mix it up with some superior rivals in the G2 Hall of Fame last time out. The speed figures don’t show it, but it’s also his best showing on a firm turf course in his career, suggesting that he’s either maturing or simply likes the Saratoga surface. Michael Trombetta is finally taking him out of stakes competition, and he fits well in this field at a price. Spirit Prince has been on a star-studded trajectory since his juvenile days, but the pieces haven’t exactly fallen into place. It’s a stretch to say that Christophe Clement is struggling with the horse after banking nearly $200,000, but he doesn’t seem to be handling him confidently either. There have been some class hikes and drops and distance tests recently that don’t necessarily suggest he’s found the right blend for this runner. It’s also hard to tell how Joel Rosario will ride him.
Race 3
$35,000 Starter Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 12:26 p.m. ET
3- Topic Changer
9- Write Off Jerry
7- American Giant
1- Lord Flintshire
Order: 3 9 7 1
What a mess. Topic Changer hasn’t won a race since 2022, but unlike most of his competitors in this field, he has a solid excuse, as he spent all of 2023 jumping hurdles. In two statebred allowances this year, he showed that he still has some run in him, and I have a feeling this race will present some class relief. Write Off Jerry is a bit of a weirdo because of his constant moves between barns. When he has run on turf, however, he has done well, earning two wins in five starts. In his return to the grass last time out, he even earned a DQ win in a claiming race on this Saratoga surface. It’s hard to tell if Tyler Gaffalione left to ride Topic Changer or if Joe Sharp simply wanted Irad Ortiz, but his presence never hurts. American Giant is an interesting one to consider at a price here. His odds in past races are partially due to his training under Bruce Brown, but it still suggests that he has been racing way, way over his head for a long time. This feels like a softer spot. The deep closer is coming out of the same statebred allowance as Topic Changer, and while he was a step behind that foe in July, he wasn’t so far off and seems to be gradually rounding into form. Lord Flintshire makes sense as a minor prize contender in this race, but it would take some guts to bet him on top. The gelding usually runs his race, but the bottom line is that he simply has not shown an interest in winning. With one victory and eight place finishes in 24 career starts, it stands to reason that he’ll be in the mix at least.
Race 4
$62,500 Optional Claiming (N2X) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
2- Arro Smash
6- Can’t Hush This
5- Jace’s Road
1- Strava
Order: 2 6 5 1
Arro Smash gets an excuse for his first race off the layoff in July, as he had a ton of trouble out of the gate. Joel Rosario should be an excellent jockey change after that incident. Philip Bauer only brings live runners up here, and he’s put Rosario on a few of them in the past. Back in May, this gelding ran an excellent race at Churchill Downs behind Champlin, earning a 92 BSF in his three-year-old debut. He has been training phenomenally well at Saratoga and proved capable at route distances last year. He feels dangerous putting two races together after a stop/start at the beginning of the season. Can’t Hush This is a clear danger coming off some solid performances in Kentucky earlier this summer. Michael Maker clearly found a live one here when he claimed him for $50,000 in June, and he improved while stretching to a mile last time out at Ellis Park. Irad Ortiz had his pick of a few runners in this field and chose to take this mount. The only knock is that he’s had some difficulty finding the winner’s circle recently. I totally forgot that Jace’s Road existed, so it’s a nice surprise to be reminded of him. Making his first start since the 2023 Kentucky Derby, it’s practically impossible to predict how he’s going to run here. The mile feels a little short, suggesting that this could be a freshener, but Brad Cox has phenomenal numbers off long layoffs (36% win rate after 180+ days) and the colt has been training very well this summer. Strava clearly suffered some sort of physical setback in May, but Norm Casse is placing him confidently in his first race off the layoff. Before the fading finish down at Churchill last time out, this gelding put together two very nice performances at Oaklawn and seemed to be on his way to a profitable season. Casse and Ricardo Santana have hit with 47% (9-for-19) of Saratoga runners over the past two years.
Race 5
$62,500 Optional Claiming (N2X) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
Post Time: 1:33 p.m. ET
1- Biz Biz Buzz/1a- Bring Theband Home
4- Mid Day Image
7- Mischievous Angel
9- Twenty Six Black
Order: 1/1A 4 7 9
Best not to overthink this one. Bring Theband Home has put together three increasingly impressive performances since Dec. 2023, winning two races at Gulfstream over the winter and returning to Florida in May to take place money at this level with a 96 BSF. He finished behind extremely talented turf runner Xy Speed that day, and no runner in this field seems poised to make that sort of challenge. Mid Day Image ran out of his shoes to lose in a three-way photo last time out, earning a 94 BSF at 32-1 odds. This is actually a step down in class from that race, and it’s clear that he appreciates something about the Saratoga grass. I can get on board. Mischievous Angel was actually my upset pick to win the G2 Hall of Fame last year, which seems foolish in retrospect. Even a year later, he still hasn’t improved much on his maiden win at Belmont in 2023. Jorge Abreu has guided him to a win off the layoff this year already, however, and he fits well in this field with plenty of upside potential. Twenty Six Black cleared the N1X condition at Saratoga last time out, and while it usually takes horses a race or two to acclimate to the next allowance level, I find that horses who like the Saratoga turf tend to acclimate quicker. This gelding has managed to string together two very nice performances up here this summer, and the hike in class shouldn’t dampen his spirits too much at a price.
Race 6
$100,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 2:05 p.m. ET
1- Insubordination (Ire)
10- Zuniga
4- Hands of Time
11- Academy
Order: 1 10 4 11
Pick your favorite number. Insubordination (Ire) has an overwhelmingly turf-pointed pedigree, which makes his runner-up showing on an off track earlier this month somewhat encouraging. Not only did he get a race under his belt, something some George Weaver runners need, but he is also expected to improve dramatically on what should be his preferred surface. I’ll take the chance. Zuniga seems to be Chad Brown’s top runner in the race, based on the presence of Flavien Prat and little else. Hands of Time got a nice debut trip around this Saratoga turf course last time out, closing steadily to take fourth. If Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario were having better meets, this colt would be a clear favorite. As things are, however, he simply figures to be in the mix. Academy isn’t guaranteed a spot in the starting gate, but I like talking about Graham Motion. After a quiet debut at Saratoga last month, the trainer will add blinkers, which he does with great success (32% win rate in 31 starts). I won’t rule him out if he draws into the field.
Race 7
$100,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 2:37 p.m. ET
3- Tip Top Thomas
2- Rookie Card
6- Keewaydin
8- C K Wonder
Order: 3 2 6 8
Tip Top Thomas has been training out of this world for trainer Todd Pletcher, and Irad Ortiz is likely looking for a win on debut for the precocious early-morning star. Not to be outdone, however, Rookie Card has been lighting up the clocker’s watch as well in recent weeks, firing off two bullets since late July. Danny Gargan may have a live one. Keewaydin will always earn attention on the toteboard as long as Chad Brown and Flavien Prat stand alongside him, as that pair has done more than enough to earn that attention. C K Wonder is one of just three horses in the field with prior race experience, and his debut, in which he showed some speed in the slop, was generally positive while providing a clear way forward to improvement.
Race 8
$95,000 Allowance (N1X) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Bred in New York, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
Post Time: 3:09 p.m. ET
4- Clear Conscience
5- Rhetorical
7- Miracle Mike
8- Slapintheface
Order: 4 5 7 8
Incredibly even field here, as most of the horses are capable of putting up solid figures but don’t often find the winner’s circle. Clear Conscience is another face in the crowd in this respect, as he has taken place money in his last two starts and has not won since April 2023. The key change here is that he now enters Mark Casse’s barn, which feels like a helpful move for a horse that hit a ceiling under Lisa Lewis. Rhetorical is going to get attention in this field simply because he’s different, a young horse making his first start against winners after a nice debut outing in July. He got a very easy trip against a weaker field in that maiden race, though the recent victory is more than what most of these runners have. Miracle Mike managed to grind out a win in a starter optional claimer back in May, and has since put up a pair of solid figures at this level in back-to-back show finishes. Slapintheface beat him last time out in a career-best performance, earning an 80 BSF that puts him firmly in contention in this race. The connections don’t necessarily lend themselves to success on turf, however, making it difficult to support him too strongly as a win candidate.
Race 9
Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 3:44 p.m. ET
4- Silver Knott (GB)
2- Measured Time (GB)
1- Soldier Rising (GB)
6- Grand Sonata
Order: 4 2 1 6
Charles Appleby and Godolphin are bringing two monsters for this one. Silver Knott (GB) has been competing at the stakes level for nearly two years now, but the gelding took a massive step forward in April when stretching out in distance. He has since won three straight races, defeating stablemate Nations Pride at Aqueduct back in May before returning in July to beat up on a weak G2 Bowling Green field. He’s the one to beat. His stablemate, Measured Time (GB), is an immense danger in his own right, however. With six wins in eight career starts, he arrived in the United States in June and dominated the G1 Manhattan at Saratoga, defeating Nations Pride as well while earning a 104 BSF. He matches Silver Knott in nearly every way, sometimes even surpassing him, but this distance remains a question. He has only attempted it once and it was on a synthetic track last year, one of his two career losses. He still has every chance to pull it off this time around based on his recent form. Soldier Rising (GB) appears to be a mortal alongside the top pair, but should not be dismissed entirely, as he has finished second behind the very best turf horses in the world in six of his last seven starts. His conquerors include Silver Knott, War Like Goddess, Bolshoi Ballet and Up to the Mark. Grand Sonata seems capable at this distance for Todd Pletcher, though he and the rest of the field should not seen as serious win candidates here.
Race 10
Ballerina Handicap (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 4:20 p.m. ET
3- Vahva
5- Scylla
4- Society
2- Chi Town Lady
Order: 3 5 4 2
Vahva seems to have the flush draw entering this race. In four commanding graded stakes wins in her last five starts, she has demonstrated superior speed figures and a consistent off-the-pace running style that should be perfect for handling this field. She’s a deserving favorite. Scylla will have to take a step forward to challenge for a win here, but she has been rock steady in her last four starts, two of which were graded stakes victories. Bill Mott showed real ambition in shipping her to California for the G1 Clement L. Hirsch, and she handled herself well finishing second in that race with a familiar 93 BSF. Society has gone through periods in her career in which there was no female horse in the country that could beat her. She has done very little since losing the Breeders’ Cup F&M Sprint last year, however, falling to Vahva in the G3 Chicago back in June before another layoff. To make matters worse here, Munnys Gold is almost sure to give her company on the front end, which has proven disastrous for her in the past. Chi Town Lady is not in the best form of her career for this race, and has not managed to seriously challenge Vahva in two meetings. She must be mentioned, however, as she took advantage of a perfect pace scenario in the 2022 Test Stakes at Saratoga to win at 17-1 odds. It’s not inconceivable that a similar pace materializes here, which could allow her to make up ground late.
Race 11
Forego Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 4:55 p.m. ET
1- Gun Pilot
6- Mullikin
8- Cagliostro
5- Run Classic
Order: 1 6 8 5
Gun Pilot was on a slingshot trajectory earlier this year when he won the G1 Churchill Downs at… Churchill Downs back in May with a 101 BSF. His third-place finish in the G2 True North next time out was an obvious disappointment, but anyone with eyes realized that Saratoga wasn’t always very friendly to closers that week. He was one of many talented horses that simply couldn’t make up ground in the stretch. Steve Asmussen has been patient in preparing this colt for his next start, and it seems reasonable to expect a strong bounceback performance here. Mullikin is the hot horse in this field, as Rodolphe Brisset stepped him way up in class to win the G2 John A. Nerud at Aqueduct in July. With three straight wins under his belt and versatile speed at this distance, he’s an obvious threat. Cagliostro would be more interesting if Flavien Prat had lobbied to ride him over Mullikin, but he remains a contender with Jose Ortiz aboard. The colt gave up a two-length lead in the G3 Blame back in June, but his win in the Hanshin was solid and he figures as a strong candidate for a minor prize. Run Classic made his return from Dubai back in July at Gulfstream, finishing second in the Smile Sprint with a 97 BSF. He has done better in the past and could take a step forward in his second start off the layoff. A pace to run at should help him along, though it will also help others with some stronger reputations.
Race 12
H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
3- Domestic Product
8- Book’em Danno
2- Speak Easy
5- Prince of Monaco
Order: 3 8 2 5
Domestic Product has gradually recovered from an ill-fated trip to the Kentucky Derby and won the G3 Dwyer last time out in dominant fashion. The 101 BSF he earned that day makes him a great fit here, and Flavien Prat has left several extremely promising runners to ride him again. The distance is a question, especially for a horse lacking early speed, but the pace should be hot and he’s proven capable of keeping in touch at slightly longer distances. Book’em Danno is a favorite of mine, and his victory in the G1 Woody Stephens makes him a solid contender here. The ground seems to be shifting underneath him, however, as Irad Ortiz is leaving to ride an inexperienced Pletcher runner. Derek Ryan has him cross-entered in a stakes race at Charles Town as well, suggesting that he may be tempted by an easier check. I’m going to begrudgingly accept the warning signs here, though he may still earn a sentimental bet. Speak Easy has not yet taken a bad step in two career starts, winning in controlling fashion and establishing himself as a highly precocious sprinter. He’s capable of sitting off the pace, which could be a very valuable asset, and Todd Pletcher believes that he can handle these waters in his third career start. I’d rather see it first, but he may never be 8-1 on the morning line again. Prince of Monaco nearly knocked off Book’em Danno in the G1 Woody Stephens last time out, closing from way behind and coming up just short. Bob Baffert could not retain Flavien Prat’s services, but everything else suggests that he’s a contender here.
Race 13
Travers Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
Full analysis of the Travers Stakes will be posted on Paddy’s Picks later today. When it becomes available, the article will be linked here.
Race 14
$50,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:48 p.m. ET
10- Deputy Mischief
8- Treaty Obligation
2- Storm Ready
9- Trumptastic
Order: 10 8 2 9
Deputy Mischief is a little hard to stomach as a win candidate based solely on his past performances. Rudimentary handicapping suggests that he’s a step slower than my runner-up in this race, as they’ve faced one another twice. That being said, the switch from Bill Mott and Jose Lezcano to Linda Rice and Irad Ortiz feels like a positive one. Rice wins with 47% of horses dropping to maiden claiming, and has an identical success rate with Ortiz at Saratoga since 2023. The colt has a reasonable chance of getting the lead to himself, at which point he could prove dangerous. Treaty Obligation is an obvious favorite in this race and the price might be right to take him. Chad Brown is also excellent when dropping into maiden claiming (33% in 36 starts) and Flavien Prat is a nice addition. In two starts against Deputy Mischief, they have technically split, but the most recent start was on a biased track that went against this runner. He has every chance, though it’s rare that a Brown/Klaravich runner can’t break through in maiden special weights. Storm Ready is an interesting Todd Pletcher runner making a surface switch and dropping in class. He showed some excellent form on turf earlier this summer, which makes it somewhat surprising to see him in this spot. I would be more intrigued if Pletcher had managed to recruit a more successful rider. Trumptastic was scooped up by Rob Atras at this level down in Kentucky back in June, and is returning off a short layoff with Manny Franco aboard. He has several races that make him a contender here, though he’s been favored in races before and has failed to cash in.