I hope everyone made some money at Belmont. It’s that time of year again for bettors to roll those profits right into some impossible races upstate at Saratoga, the single most competitive track in the country. This is a lovely opening day with the Schuylerville (G3) and Peter Pan (G3) serving as a sort of double feature. No one will be able to make the pilgrimage upstate this year, but racing continues all the same.
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Note: The tenth race has not been uploaded, and likely will not until later. I have a dentist’s appointment this afternoon, for any nosy readers out there.
Race 1
$14,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
This is a fairly inauspicious start to a legendary meet, as the biggest challenge in this race is figuring out who’s interested in winning. It would fit just as well as an opener at Belmont, but the best is yet to come. My top four:
7- Jerome Avenue
This gelding hasn’t yet won on fast dirt, but I think that’s more a result of racing at higher levels. In his last race before the layoff, he was much the best in a sprint but went insanely wide around the turn, closing for second without ever contending for the top spot. The turf start obviously wasn’t an attempt to win off the layoff, and Rob Atras brings this horse to Saratoga for his second start back. Based on speed figures, this runner is generally faster than others in this race, and it’s simply a matter of finding out if he’s the best at this distance.
2- Grit and Glory
This is the wild card in here. In his last start before the layoff, he looked great down at Gulfstream, running down lone speed to win with an 83 BSF. However, in his first race back on the mud at Belmont, he seemed a little flat, which is honestly characteristic at this point. He can’t seem to put two races together, as he’s run very well in the past before weakening in subsequent starts. He’s proven he can handle the distance well enough, and he’ll win with his best performance.
6- Guy Caballero
He’s a brutal betting proposition. He hasn’t won a race since June 2017, and yet, he never really runs a bad race. His speed figures put him in the upper echelon of this field, and I happen to appreciate the services of Rudy Rodriguez with new horses. It’s somewhat concerning that this horse is coming from Jorge Navarro’s barn, though this horse has obviously been good for a long time. It’s really just a problem with winning that holds this horse back here.
1- Castle Casanova
In terms of speed figures, this colt is a fairly consistent performer. In his first start off the layoff, he ran his race but found himself overwhelmed by a talented field of statebred runners. He steps into open company but may get a little class relief, which should help his chances. That being said, he may still be a tad overwhelmed by some of the other runners here.
Order: 7 2 6 1
I don’t love Jerome Avenue, but I do think he’s better prepared than some of the other contenders in here. Grit and Glory has been a little inconsistent as of late, but I may end up placing a wager that she shows up with another solid performance today. Guy Caballero and Castle Casanova strike me as minor purse winners.
Race 2
$75,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a maiden claiming race in name only. Every horse in this race has competed in maiden special weight competition, and their trainers are merely seeking a little class relief without the serious risk of losing their horse. Even still, for horses coming out of these races, it’s always preferable to see them win an actual maiden special weight. My top four:
6- Eternal Summer
Todd Pletcher’s been biding his time with this one. His colt here only made two starts in his two-year-old season, both at Saratoga last August. His first race was a warmup, one in which he lost to Our Country and Silver Prospector. In his second start, he finished third by four lengths behind Structor, who went on to win the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Pletcher’s obviously waited until the Saratoga meet before bringing him back, which is an excellent sign that he’s improved from two to three. Dropping him to a maiden claiming level isn’t such a big deal, because it’s much less likely for a horse to be claimed for $75,000. I really like his chances here in his three-year-old debut.
10- Scanno
Last time out, I thought this horse might overcome his piling losses and record his first win at this level. I was wrong about that, which puts this runner in a strange position as a talented horse that struggles to win. He’s certainly fast enough and tends to outrun his odds at higher levels of maiden competition, attributes that make him an attractive selection for yet another minor prize. It’s interesting to note that his first start came at Saratoga last year behind fellow runner Eternal Summer. This ridgling has raced nine times since while he will be making his first start in over a year.
3- Price Talk
I guess Chad Brown doesn’t get every Klaravich runner, as Jorge Abreu enters this first time starter in a hard knocking maiden race. He’s excellent when sending out firsters, though he isn’t as effective on the turf, and Manny Franco is going to ride. He’s an interesting option on a day where many will be saving their best horses.
8- Mutakaamil
In Chad Brown’s entire stable, this seems to be his only runner that struggles. For three years now, he’s been toiling away on dirt in maiden special weights, staying in contention without ever really breaking through. Brown tries a switch to turf for the first time here, and while the horse has a 387 Tomlinson for the surface, this feels more like a last ditch effort than one of his more professional surface switches. Even if he does prefer the turf, I don’t suspect that his problems are related to the ground he’s running over.
Order: 6 10 3 8
I think Todd Pletcher has been waiting for the Saratoga meet to start Eternal Summer, and I think he waited for a reason. Scanno has had a lot of trouble finding the winner’s circle, and I consider him bearable here. Price Talk is an intriguing long shot making his first start, while Mutakaamil seems to be frustrating Chad Brown a little.
Race 3
$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a small, but highly competitive, field of allowance runners. An early duel for the lead should break out, but because of the field size, it’s less likely that a closer would manage to run down the leaders late. As a result, I played this race as if the speed holds, and my top four reflects that in part:
3- Palace Avenger
Her last start is the only one that qualifies her in this race, but it was an excellent start. At 29-1, this filly dueled on the inside against another long shot, and while that runner eventually finished 10th, she found another gear and fought Dos Vinos to the wire. It was an impressive performance, and prepares her well for another duel against Palomita here. She’ll likely get the rail again, and in a short field, I like her chances.
1- Carrizo
If this race was being held at Belmont, this filly wouldn’t register in my analysis. Everywhere else, she’s a fairly well-seasoned runner with some ability on the right day. In her three starts last year at Saratoga, however, she appeared to be a different horse altogether, recording her three highest speed figures at three and winning two races by a combined margin of nearly 19 lengths. She was stupendous, and I’m willing to bet that Cannizzo has been biding his time this year in preparation for this race. That first start back on the Belmont turf was obviously a freshener, and I think she can make some noise here in her second start off the layoff.
2- Figure of Speech
This Chad Brown runner looked very good at the top of the stretch in her last start before fading badly from that point on. It was, however, her first start back, and Javier Castellano returns to ride for the first time her three-year-old season. I expect her to build off of that last performance as she returns to a track that she ran well at last year, finishing third in the G1 Spinaway.
5- Palomita
She doesn’t impress me as much as Palace Avenger to her inside for a variety of reasons. Being a four-year-old is obviously an advantage in this race, but she’s only performed well enough to belong here once, in her last start. There, she dueled on the inside of Sadie Lady and they ran around the track first and second. Sadie Lady has gone on to quit badly in two subsequent starts, which makes the fact that this horse couldn’t beat her on the rail very concerning. She’ll have to duel Palace Avenger here, a horse with real dueling experience and success, and I’m not sure whether she’ll be up for it.
Order: 3 1 2 5
Palace Avenger has successfully dueled in the past and will get the rail should a similar scenario play out here. Carrizo and Figure of Speech are both runners that I believe will improve in their returns to Saratoga, while I’m concerned about Palomita’s chances in a duel on the outside.
Race 4
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
These lightly raced three-year-olds tend to be a little unpredictable because improvement can occur overnight. I did my best to gauge their ability on paper, but it would be very useful for handicappers to watch in the paddock. My top four:
2- Yes to Mischief
She’s a $400,000 purchase that Mark Casse has chosen to save for Saratoga. She has a 398 Tomlinson for the distance, has been very quick in workouts, and Jose Ortiz is riding. I’d keep an eye out.
4- Palace Duchess
This filly was hyped heavily in her only start at two, one in which she broke awkwardly, veered greenly in the stretch, and eventually finished third in the slop at Keeneland. What’s notable about that race is that she looked about as poorly trained as possible, and yet, she looked extremely, extremely dangerous at certain points. She returns here after over a year on the shelf, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Wesley Ward has been waiting for this day to enter her.
6- Thrill
Her first start came on turf, and despite going wide in that race at Gulfstream, she still closed well in the stretch. George Weaver is coming off a very successful Belmont meet and switches surfaces with this filly here, and a 435 Tomlinson never hurt anybody. Manny Franco signs on to ride, and this horse could surprise some people on the dirt.
1- Escape Fund
Michael Trombetta has a $105,000 purchase running at Saratoga. That sounds good, doesn’t it? There’s not much to go off of with this runner on paper, but with Tyler Gaffalione riding, I don’t think he’s here to mess around. Still, I’ll probably take a wait-and-see approach.
Order: 2 4 6 1
Yes to Mischief seems like a promising runner for Mark Casse, and I think she may be ready on first asking. Palace Duchess hasn’t raced since last year when she made a turbulent, but promising, start at two. I like her chances in her 2020 debut. Thrill ran in the grass last time out, but George Weaver switches her to the dirt, a move that she may appreciate. Escape Fund is just another horse to talk about in a very deep field.
Race 5
$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a fair race continuing the allowance optional claiming division from Belmont. Many of these horses have already raced against one another several times, which makes them easier to compare but makes new horses more difficult to gauge. My top four:
5- Dark Money
Of all the runners in here, this gelding simply appears to be a notch above. In his first start off the layoff, he performed very well, settling just outside the leader and driving home on a good track at Belmont. The 92 BSF indicates that he’s in condition, and this race should set up well for him. With two front running types likely to go in front of him, Manny Franco can easily work out a stalking trip and win much like this horse did last year in his only start at Saratoga. He’s the one to beat.
8- The Caretaker
This horse is very consistent, and in his first race off the layoff, it essentially came down to him and Summer Bourbon on the tote board. His most dangerous adversary didn’t fire that day, and he was able to hold off a late challenge from fellow runner Kazmania to get a victory at this condition. He’s performed well at Saratoga in the past, though I fear that his consistency will actually hurt him here as there may be a few competitors that are sitting on big performances.
7- Thorny Tale
His last race was a dramatic improvement over his previous form, and the manner in which he did it was impressive as well. In his first start off the layoff on a sloppy track at Belmont, he won a three-horse duel on the far outside and pulled away in the stretch. It was visually impressive, though I have concerns that the track heavily aided the performance. He should sit off the pace here and make his move on the turn, though I don’t know if he’s quite good enough to handle Dark Money and The Caretaker.
4- Big Engine
This horse hasn’t raced since January, and in that start, he only finished behind Dark Money by three lengths, who was loose on the lead that day. He hasn’t raced since, and while it’s not great to see a horse try competition like this off a layoff, it is flattering that Linda Rice chose to save him for the Saratoga meet. Jose Lezcano rides a horse that should get a perfect trip if he’s good enough.
Order: 5 8 7 4
This race should come down to Dark Money and The Caretaker. Dark Money’s last race was extremely sharp and he’s had success at Saratoga in the past. Meanwhile, The Caretaker is more consistent and should run a fair race to try and beat him. There are obviously other contenders in this race, but I don’t love any of them for the top spot.
Race 6
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This is a very enjoyable race to handicap, as there are several quirky angles to mull over. The most interesting is the Wesley Ward owner/trainer entry, one where he has Irad Ortiz on both horses. In addition, Tiz Envy is really growing on me lately as a fairly live long shot, solely based on the sensible way that he’s been handled. My top four:
2- Mr Everything
This runner is part of an entry, and because Irad Ortiz is on both horses, one of them will likely be scratched. I really hope this gelding stays in, because I really like his chances. In his first start off a five-month layoff, he returned for Wesley Ward with Jorge Vargas aboard. That alone would suggest it wasn’t an attempt to win, and it played out that way. He was looking large at the top of the stretch but faded badly. Now, Ward cuts him back in distance in his first start at Saratoga and recruits Irad Ortiz to ride. Doesn’t it feel like we’re trying a little harder to win this time around?
9- Propensity
Since the break, this gelding simply hasn’t looked the same as he did at Gulfstream when competing in maiden special weight competition. Bill Mott makes a sensible drop here as a result, and it’s possible that this horse still fits here despite his reduced form. However, it’s doubtful that the price on this horse will be too considerate of the fact that he’s had better races in the past.
8- Spitball
Linda Rice had some tough beats at the Belmont meet, and this one might take the cake. This gelding was clear in the stretch in her second career start, but somehow gave up two positions in the final yards to finish third by a neck. This is his second race off the layoff and Jose Ortiz returns, which is always encouraging but is even better when Rice is training. I expect this horse to maintain his form here.
3- Tiz Envy
I liked this long shot’s chances in his last race and picked him to finish fourth. I wasn’t far off, so I’m going for it again. Sometimes I can tell when a bad trainer thinks highly of a horse, and I believe that’s the case here with Amira Chicackly. She hasn’t been great by any stretch of the imagination in her short career thus far, but she’s handled this runner in a way that I can appreciate. She started him in a maiden special weight at a ridiculous distance and he sprinted out to an insane early lead before tiring badly. It prepared him well for his next start, a $75,000 maiden claimer where he finished fifth at 22-1 while making up a little ground in the stretch. She cuts him back again in distance here, and while I’m not sure if that’s the right move, I really appreciate another sensible class drop. On speed figures this horse fits here, and if it’s simply a matter of distance, then I think that makes this runner a viable long shot.
Order: 2 9 8 3
If Mr Everything stays in the race, then I really like his chances. I believe his last start was a prep, one that he looked good in before fading late. If Irad Ortiz is riding him, that signifies a jockey upgrade and a more serious attempt to win. Propensity is well-seasoned, and while he’s fallen off considerably in two starts off the layoff, he fits well against this softer field. Spitball is lightly raced and ran very well last time, and his stretch run indicates that he’s interested in keeping the lead late. Tiz Envy just makes sense on paper, and I can’t always say that about long shots trained by Amira Chicackly.
Race 7
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This race is one of the first all day that seems to lack any sort of pace. Besides that, it’s an excellent race with some very talented runners. I’m going to attempt to play it based on the notion that the soft early speed types will have something left at the end. My top four:
1- Astoria Kitten
This filly’s last race was run under the fastest fractions of her career, and she was on the front end. Even still, she held well to finish third behind fellow runner Summer At the Spa. In this race, Irad Ortiz is riding her, and based on the other runners, it’s very reasonable to suspect that he’ll manage to give her much softer fractions in the front end. If that’s the case, she’ll be very tough to catch.
2- Noble Jewel
This Carlos Martin trainee handled the layoff well, and while I did pick this horse to win in her last start, I will admit that I may have just been lucky. That race was clearly a prep, one that she happened to handle well enough to win. She returns here at her preferred distance from last year, and it seems as though she’s improved a little as a four-year-old. I’m vaguely surprised to see Luis Cardenas return, but I don’t think that hurts her chances coming off a victory. I expect her to make a good showing here.
9- Summer At the Spa
She’ll be making her debut at the Spa today, and I love when a bold name works out. In her last start, she took full advantage of a hot pace up and closed well to finish second ahead of Astoria Kitten. I doubt she gets that same pace today, which could seriously compromise her chances. Jonathan Thomas and Javier Castellano are still charming enough for me to put her in my top three, but I think she’ll have a bit more trouble here.
4- Minit Maus
While Summer At the Spa closed into very fast fractions last time out, this runner closed into nothing. On a day where early speed was heavily favored on all Belmont surfaces, she was one of two horses in this race to close well. That alone makes her an intriguing long shot, though it’s unlikely that she’ll get a much better pace to run at here. However, she is a versatile runner as well, which is a useful tool not often seen on a 20-1 shot. Tyler Gaffalione riding for Gary Sciacca is another such rarity.
Order: 1 2 9 4
I really like Astoria Kitten here. She ran fairly well under very fast factions last time out, and there’s very little chance she’ll have to run at that pace again. Irad Ortiz is a master at putting his mount in a comfortable position, and I expect this horse to thrive here. Noble Jewel and Summer At the Spa are both capable of winning here, but I’m not sure they’ll manage to run down the front runner. Minit Maus could really do anything here, and I think she’s better than she appears.
Race 8
Schuylerville Stakes (G3) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This isn’t the best juvenile stakes ever run at Saratoga, but there are some talented runners in here. It’s hard to admit that the two best runners in here come from Churchill Downs, but they appear to have this field well in hand. My top four:
3- Beautiful Memories
This filly was just brilliant in her first start for trainer Mark Casse. She was a 2-5 favorite in an 11-horse field going in, and she lived up to every expectation and then some. Casse isn’t great with first time starters, so when one performs like that, I can be sure that the filly is talented. I’d like to see her come off the pace before I start getting too excited, but she’s extremely dangerous here.
8- Hopeful Princess
Speaking of coming off the pace, this horse ran just as well Beautiful Memories based on the 75 BSF, but did so with a nice stalking trip. Despite being a two-year-old, she had a very professional stretch duel to break her maiden by less than a length, despite finishing over six lengths ahead of the third place finisher. She moves into Steve Asmussen’s barn for her second start, and if any horse is going to defeat Beautiful Memories, it’s likely going to be this one.
1- Make Mischief
Maybe this is just my Belmont bias, but this filly looked pretty good in her maiden victory. I can’t ignore the speed figure, but as first starts go, this was a professional one in which she ran down a stubborn runner in the stretch in relatively quick fractions. Jose Ortiz is obviously gone, but John Velasquez picks up the slack for Casse’s other runner here. I could see this filly taking well to six furlongs (414 Tom.), at which point I think she could have a say.
4- Quinoa Tifah
She’s not well named, but she did run down a highly touted favorite to break her maiden last time out. No way to know what the BSF was, but the fractions were still stout at the half which indicates that she was still actually racing. Manny Franco takes a mount that hasn’t raced since April, and with two-year-olds, three months is a very long time in terms of improvement and development.
Order: 3 8 1 4
Beautiful Memories and Hopeful Princess should be competing at the wire, but I expect the former to take another step forward for Mark Casse here. Meanwhile, Casse’s other runner and Quinoa Tifah are interesting options for value players.
Race 9
Peter Pan Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
In last year’s running of the Peter Pan, Sir Winston finished second but used it as a prep to win the Belmont Stakes. This year, it will actually serve as a potential Kentucky Derby prep, as many of these horses find themselves on the outskirts of the division. My top four:
7- Caracaro
This colt was essentially a two-year-old when he dominated in his second start at Gulfstream in January. He earned a 92 BSF and then went on the shelf, giving him six months to develop as a three-year-old. Gustavo Delgado knows how to place his horses off layoffs, and he must be supremely confident to enter his horse here without a prep. Javier Castellano signs on to ride, and while the horse hasn’t run this far before, he has a 414 Tomlinson and an excellent work tab that tells me he’s prepared for it. He’s new blood in this three-year-old division, and I think he’s too scary to pass on here.
6- Mystic Guide
This colt has been waiting to break through for a long time now. He generated some buzz after his impressive maiden win back in March, but the pandemic dampened his prospects at the time. He returned in June in a prep that could have put him in the G1 Belmont Stakes. Instead, Tap It to Win wired the field and delayed his progress even further. This is his first attempt in stakes competition, and it’s very likely that he’ll be favored again here. Jose Ortiz steps in for Brian Hernandez, and he has a 419 Tomlinson for this new distance.
3- Modernist
I thought this colt and Max Player were being brought along too quickly when entering the Belmont Stakes off a layoff. I was wrong when Max Player closed well to finish third, but I was correct when this horse finished poorly to lose by 20 lengths. Fortunately, he’s had two other starts at this distance that were both winning efforts, and his form before the layoff indicates that his loss in the Belmont was an outlier. Bill Mott may have been too ambitious to begin, but I think he’s found a nice spot for his runner to rebound.
5- Candy Tycoon
This horse’s only start at this distance was admittedly a disaster, when he finished nearly 22 lengths behind Tiz the Law in the G1 Florida Derby. However, his next start was an encouraging comeback effort, as he finished second in an Oaklawn allowance behind Rushie, who went on to have some excellent showings in the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. This is his first race off a shorter layoff for Todd Pletcher, which isn’t always preferable but should be fine under these circumstances. John Velasquez stays on, and this colt still has a 403 Tomlinson at this distance despite the lone poor start. He has an outside chance here.
Order: 7 6 3 5
In a race full of classy three-year-olds, I’m going with the Gustavo Delgado trainee for the top spot. I believe he’s here for a reason, and he’s had six months to improve on the 92 BSF he earned back in January. Mystic Guide has been trying to earn his way into graded stakes competition for a while now, and Modernist is desperately trying to collect points. They both have a solid chance in here, but Candy Tycoon isn’t far behind them based on his performance against Rushie last time out.
Race 10
$40,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This is a somewhat meager end to a great day of racing, as some able turf runners try this conditional claiming level. My top four:
1- Secure Connection
This filly’s been just a little overmatched for most of her career. Her last start was fine, as most of her races are, though she was clearly outrun for the top spot. This will be her eighth different track in nine races, and Shug McGaughey drops her in class and cuts her back to a short sprint. He recruits Jose Ortiz to ride as well, and I think enough is going for this horse that she’ll be ready to go this time around.
2- Doll
Last time out, I was very cross that this filly was favored. My frustration was validated when I cashed a win ticket on Noble Jewel, but now I’m more tolerant of this runner now that I know that she’s officially beginning a turf campaign. She handled the switch well, but she finished second again, and that’s her main issue. In nine races, she’s finished second five times, which is a very concerning statistic for bettors. She’s good enough to win here, but it only seems to happen under perfect circumstances.
7- Quasar
I don’t know if this filly was originally pointed towards turf, but she really took to it in her first race off the layoff. She closed fairly well that day to finish fourth behind Doll, demonstrating some ability in her second start on turf. The case for improvement for trainer Robert Ribaudo is tough to make, however.
11- Aunt Nadine
I don’t know if this filly can run on turf or if she’s good when leaving Jorge Navarro’s barn. Fortunately, she’s moving to train with Steve Asmussen, a very capable trainer that can manage her and find spots for her to win. It’s unclear if this is the spot though, because it’s been a very common move for trainers to put their dirt horses in the turf to give them a race off the layoff. What makes this one somewhat confusing is her 410 Tomlinson for this distance on turf. I’d rather bet against her and hope today isn’t the day.
Order: 1 2 7 11
I don’t love any runner in this race, which makes me think that Secure Connection may be able to capitalize on a softer field. Doll has five second place finishes in nine starts, and I’m just trying to be consistent. Quasar and Aunt Nadine are outsiders for the top spot and are most valuable underneath.