This is a Saratoga day for the ladies, as the first seven races on this card are restricted to fillies and mares. It’s the kind of card that improves significantly as the day progresses, and while the first few races may be pretty unappetizing, the graded stakes feature should keep some people around.
Note: The first nine are up, the last one is coming.
Race 1
$20,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a real clinker. There’s really no other way to put it. Even the overwhelming favorites are underwhelming on paper, to the point that this race could be run at Aqueduct and I doubt anyone would question it. I guess the money’s still green if handicappers can cash in, but there doesn’t appear to be much value either. My top four:
4- Hands Up
There are two probable winners in this dumpster fire of a race, and I’ll take the one with the longer odds. I bet Phillip Bauer was hoping that his first Saratoga horse of the meet would be in a better race than this one, but hey, at least he’s making an effort lugging this animal up the east coast from Kentucky. This filly has some experience at the distance and her start two back finishing second to Brittle and Yoo was actually a pretty solid performance. I’ll take a small chance in a race that I don’t believe will send anyone into early retirement.
Side Note: That was meant to sound like the good kind of “early retirement,” like a vacation or a house on the Riviera or something. But when I read it back to myself, it sounds vaguely threatening, doesn’t it? Maybe it’s my phrasing. “Ey buddy, you don’t watch it, me and my large friends here might have to, ah, send you into, ah you know, a little early retirement, if you catch my drift.” That’s not what I meant. Paddy’s Picks doesn’t hire leg-breakers, nor do we condone the practice. It just doesn’t seem like a profitable race. Alright, now that we’ve cleared that up, back to the analysis.
5- Assume
This filly is probably a deserving favorite, but I have my issues. From what I’ve heard, Todd Pletcher is a pretty talented guy, and you may quote me on that. However, at Saratoga, he’s 0-for-15 with Manny Franco, which isn’t the type of statistic I like to see on a 4-5 shot. In addition, he’s been running fairly well at route distance but cuts back to a sprint here. That would be fine if he was truly superior to his competition, but I think he actually has a worthy adversary in this race that’s more proven while sprinting. He could very well win, but I think he’ll be overbet, especially since there are several problems on paper.
8- Wishes and Dreams
She’s never been nearly this low in class on the dirt, but she showed so little in those previous starts at both two and three. There’s actually a case to be made that she hasn’t been running as well with blinkers, and will finally lose them for this start. She has an upset chance, and it’s not like the favorites here are conquerors. I’d simply like to see a little more before I begin raving.
3- Quantum Computing
Manny Franco is gone, but Kendrick Carmouche works well enough with Gargan to make the loss slightly more tolerable. This filly has also shown very little, and has already performed poorly at this level earlier in the year. She’d really have to improve off the layoff to have a chance.
Order: 4 5 8 3
Assume is a very lacking 4-5 favorite, which is forcing me to support Hands Up essentially on principle. From there, Wishes and Dreams offers a minor upset chance, while Quantum Computing seems to have even worse prospects. It has to get better from here, right?
Race 2
$14,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Apparently not. In fact, this race might be worse that the last one. There’s a very obvious favorite here, though she’s not all that impressive in relation to… well, the average Saratoga horse. From there, I had to split hairs among a heap of mediocre runners to form a top four:
1- Kinky Sox
It kills me to support an Edmund Davis runner for the top spot, but I really don’t see another result here. In her last start, she proved to be plainly superior to fellow runner Movie Score, who’s a legitimate contender in this race. Her speed figures are the best in the field, and she actually seems to be the most prepared for this start. It seems a little too obvious, and these horses rarely keep their form for long, but as it stands, she should run away from this field.
2- Overtime Olivia
In her last start on dirt, she outdueled several horses on a closer friendly track and was run down in the final yards to lose a photo, taking second ahead of fellow runner Movie Score. Her next start was on the turf for no reason at all, but she returns to the dirt here and seems to be competitive in this spot for Antonio Arriaga. She’ll be the one to run down, which also gives her an advantage. The problem is that she gives up leads with alarming frequency, and is only 2-for-23 in her career. However, in a fight for second, she may be a worthwhile inclusion.
7- Movie Score
Two starts back, this filly should’ve won against fellow runner Overtime Olivia but had to check and regroup. She had a lot of run left after she gathered herself, but was simply too late at the wire. Her last race, however, put her into direct competition with fellow runner Kinky Sox, and she was simply overwhelmed. In addition, she’s 2-for-19 lifetime, so the likelihood that she improves is highly suspect.
5- Hot Little Honey
I don’t know what to do with this filly. She’s taking a dramatic drop in class, which obviously helps her chances in a weak field. However, she’s run really, really poorly in her two most recent starts, to the point that those performances wouldn’t even come close to winning at this level. Irad Ortiz sticks around for Michael Maker, which provides some encouragement that she can turn it around. She’s also the only three-year-old in the race, which can be good or bad depending on the perspective. She could win, but she can also finish dead last, so I’ll just slot her in fourth and forget about this whole race.
Order: 1 2 7 5
Alright, let’s try this again. It has to get better from here, right?
Race 3
$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
That’s better. This is a pretty solid turf race featuring many of the typical features of a New York turf sprint. We’re back on track, and this top four was much easier to get through than the last two races:
2- Peaceful
This filly seems to be the fastest runner in the field by a considerable margin. In her last start, she came up short to finish second, but in the process, she proved to be significantly better than three other horses in this race. It’s not great to see Javier Castellano go elsewhere, but I think he has to pick his battles when it comes to riding for Michael Stidham over Chad Brown. I like his chances here.
6- Voting Agreement
The lightly raced Chad Brown trainee owned by Klaravich is one of the most common type of runner on the New York circuit. She came up a little short in her first race off the layoff, but the three-year-old can easily take another step forward. She’ll be favored for a reason, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she won here. Javier Castellano had a big choice to make and picked this runner.
3- Sparkling Sky
Horacio DePaz takes over for Todd Pletcher with this filly making her three-year-old debut in this race. That’s not a terrible sign, and DePaz even managed to retain the services of Jose Ortiz. However, there is another reason to go against this filly. In her two-year-old season, she performed at a very high level but did so routing. In her first race back, she’s being entered in a sprint, which makes me wonder if this is a prep race. She can still run well, but I think the end goal is somewhere further down the line.
7- Mo Me Mo My
I really liked this filly when she was entered at Belmont earlier this month, but she was scratched by the veterinarian that day. Luis Saez was supposed to ride her that day, and I was encouraged by Doug O’Neill’s bold decision making. Now, after a vet’s list scratch, Dylan Davis is hopping aboard, and now it suddenly doesn’t seem like an enticing option. There’s a difference between entering her at Belmont and entering her at Saratoga, and now I’m more worried about her chances.
Order: 2 6 3 7
I don’t love that Castellano left to ride Voting Agreement, but I still think Peaceful is the best in the field and should take care of business for Michael Stidham. Sparkling Sky and Mo Me Mo My are supposed to be value plays in this sort of race, but there are too many question marks to consider either one of them seriously as a win contender.
Race 4
$12,500 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is another ho hum race, but at least the horses have a little ability at this level. There’s a clear top tier of horses in this one, and I think I like what I ended up with:
6- Stay Fond
I really like this runner for Michael Miceli. She’s won three of her last four starts, moving slowly up through the claiming game without encountering any overly difficult fields. I selected her to finish third in her last race, and she surprised me by responding very well off of the layoff. Miceli is just as effective with horses entering their second start off the layoff, which leads me to believe that this filly is still in razor sharp condition and should be prepared to take another one here.
8- Blunt Force
I respect Tom Amoss and the horses he brings here, and this filly seems to fit well here on speed figures. She’s proven to be a more effective sprinter lately, winning two of her last three starts at seven furlongs. Kendrick Carmouche had a choice to make and chose to ride a horse he’s never rode before over some solid contenders. She’s certainly a contender in here.
5- Malarkey
Two starts back, this runner was rather disappointing finishing behind fellow runners Stay Fond and Cotton Candy Cutie. However, rhe did bounce back to perform well on a wet track in his next start. At this level, she’s proven to be a step slow on several occasions, and she’s not the kind of horse I can endorse very highly. However, Jose Ortiz continues to ride her for Linda Rice, and she’s fast enough to compete for a minor prize.
2- Miss Loyalty
Earlier this year, this filly actually finished in front of Stay Fond at the $10,000 level at Aqueduct. While that filly seems to have taken a step forward since, this runner has leveled out a little for John Toscano. She’s consistently undervalued in races like this but often outruns her odds, making her a pretty interesting contender here. She doesn’t seem to have the speed or connections necessary to win, but she’s made some noise in the past and could compete here as well.
Order: 6 8 5 2
I think Stay Fond is the best horse in this race, but I think the odds will present a more evenly matched contest. I think she’s the best prepared and can improve in this start for Michael Miceli. Blunt Force is a serious contender that I’m not going against completely, while Malarkey and Miss Loyalty are more valuable underneath.
Race 5
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
These maiden races are always fun, even if the statebred races are a step below open company. My top four:
9- Samborella
Jeremiah Englehart has two first time starters in this race, and when they worked together on July 17, this horse proved to be faster. He also seems to prefer Jose Ortiz, who he succeeds with 24% of the time at Saratoga. She should be ready to go, as many of Englehart’s runners are.
5- Going Going Gone
Rudy Rodriguez is acquiring this horse from Dermot Magner’s barn, and he’s making a serious attempt to win with her in her second start. The addition of blinkers is a an awesome angle for Rodriguez, and Irad Ortiz is a solid addition to ride. There’s not much to go on with this filly herself, as that last race was pretty bad. However, an attempt to win is very important to see on paper, and gives me hope that she’ll figure it out this time around.
8- No Mo’ Spending
Ian Wilkes recruits Javier Castellano to ride this second time starter, and beyond that, there’s not much else to go on. She didn’t perform very well in her first start, but those can be a learning experience more often than not. Ian Wilkes has brought a winning horse to Saratoga already, and he wouldn’t bring this one if he didn’t like her chances.
6- Jill’s a Hot Mess
She’s gone through two trainers in two starts this year, and ends up in Eric Guillot’s barn here. She’s performed fairly well despite very slow speed figures, and Guillot feels confident and keeps her at this level. He’s only entered five horses so far this year, but he’s won twice, as many times as Amira Chicackly in over 30 starts. There’s something about her that makes me thing she can take a step forward at some point here.
Order: 9 5 8 6
I’m going with Samborella on top here because I trust Jeremiah Englehart with firsters. Going Going Home intrigues me as a serious contender, while No Mo’ Spending and Jill’s a Hot Mess are shots in the dark in a very challenging race.
Race 6
$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 3/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a very solid race of fillies and mares that are just short of entering stakes competition. There are a few interesting options with different racing backgrounds, and that always makes for an entertaining race. My top four:
6- Coilean Bawn
This filly will forever be remembered as the first winner given out on Paddy’s Picks. Perhaps I’m going back the well when I shouldn’t, but her last race looks pretty good in retrospect. There were several live horses in that race, including In Front, who went on to win a race up here last week. It took her a very long time to break her maiden, but now that she has, it stands to reason that she can do it again. She’s handled longer routes well in the past, and I think she’ll be a formidable foe for the favorite here.
9- Cap de Creus
My argument when betting against this horse last time was that she tended to finish as a beaten favorite in races where she had legitimate competition. That’s exactly what happened, as she lost her third career photo finish to Civil Union. Now, Civil Union turned out to be better than I thought she was, and went on the win an ungraded stakes next time out. However, Cap de Creus lived up to my expectations as beaten chalk, the fourth time in five favored situations. Can she win here? Well, she does appear to be the best runner on paper. However, I think she’ll have a few contenders to deal with here as well, and and even money, I think I can comfortably go against her.
1- Elle M’a Souri (Fr)
A friend of mine made his first handicapping outing on June 30 at Churchill. The first money he ever made was on this filly, and man, did she give him a scare. As the best in the field by a considerable margin, she came charging home and just got up to break her maiden in seventh start. Cherie DeVaux must be hopeful to bring her up to Saratoga, and it’s nice that Tyler Gaffalione is around to ride. She has a very similar situation to Coilean Bawn, with the major difference being that she’s never gone this far before.
3- Overjoyed
Didn’t Neil Drysdale train Fusaichi Pegasus? I guess I could fact check that and avoid appearing a fool, but I’ll just go with my gut and blame the fact that I was two weeks away from being born when he won the Derby. Anyway, he brings this three-year-old to Saratoga, where she’ll be trying older horses for the first time. She hasn’t raced on the turf since her two-year-old season, but she performed well in a dirt start last month at Belmont. This may indicate that she’s improved on the turf as well, since it was her preferred surface last year. This will be a tough test, but I think she may be worth a second look here.
Order: 6 9 1 3
Coilean Bawn ran very well last time out, and I think she’s been prepared well this season for a test such as this one. Cap de Creus is obviously talented, and at some point she’s going to burn me, but I’ll continue to bet against her as the favorite until she proves me wrong. I would consider Elle M’a Souri more if she had experience at the distance, but as is, she’s still a solid contender. Overjoyed is a bit of an unsure commodity, but I actually see some upside that may warrant a deeper look.
Race 7
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This is a wide open contest with some fairly talented statebred maidens. This will likely be a pedestrian race, but the winner will qualify for some pretty solid statebred races going forward. My top four:
10- Quantitativbreezin
Her first start at Belmont last month was excellent, a fast-closing second place finish behind a legitimate horse. Brad Cox is great with second time starters, and while this horse already has an edge, she may even be able to improve a little.
7- Magnolia’s Lady
When this filly was running well at Belmont, she was doing so in the midst of a terrible drought for Linda Rice. Now, Linda Rice can’t seem to lose, which indicates that she may improve in the move upstate. She finished behind Snicket last time out while running just off an extremely fast pace up front. I get the feeling that she’ll take a step forward here.
2- Towering Gaze
In two starts, this filly has been very versatile, running fairly well with two completely different running styles. She won a three-horse duel last time out but folded in a losing effort behind Fresco, who won her next start. The fact that Jose Ortiz keeps riding this David Donk trainee is very encouraging, and Patricia Generazio is a very successful owner upstate.
8- Snicket
She’ll be a deserving favorite or second choice here, and I have her fourth when she probably deserves to be ranked higher. In two turf starts, she’s finished second twice, once behind a huge long shot and most recently behind a solid horse. That’s not all that encouraging, because the competition she’s lost to has been a little inconsistent, but her performance has been the same. Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario are brilliant together, but I’m not sold on the notion that their filly here wants to do better than second.
Order: 10 7 2 8
Quantitativbreezin is a little obvious, but I think she’ll manage well in her second start for Brad Cox. Magnolia’s Lady and Towering Gaze are horses that I expect to improve, though for different reasons. Meanwhile, I don’t see Snicket progressing too much, as she’s proven to be a little difficult to get across the line first, even when she’s been qualified to do so.
Race 8
$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
For some reason, there aren’t as many quality dirt races as there are turf races in New York, and that’s a shame. This race offers a big field of talented horses, which is typically reserved for grass running. More of this please, Mr. NYRA. My top four:
9- Strike That
I’ve found that Oaklawn had fairly competitive races this year, which bodes well for this Robertino Diodoro shipper. He’s done very little wrong this far in five starts, winning three and placing in two. Diodoro’s had a little tough luck so far at this meet, but he has a live runner here that gets to keep jockey David Cohen.
5- Chateau
She’ll be flying up front early, though persevering up there will be a tougher task. His first race off the layoff was a step back, but he had to duel that day and clearly didn’t appreciate it. He’ll have to run honestly here as well, but it doesn’t appear as though any of the other speed can keep up with him. He can handle a hot pace if he’s left alone, and in his second start off the layoff, Irad Ortiz steps in for Hector Diaz to try to wire them. I’ll be watching for it.
7- Free Enterprise
This horse is overbet for the sole reason that he’s trained by Chad Brown. Going by speed figures, he simply isn’t as fast as other runners in this race. That being said, he has been more than fast enough in the past, and had an incredible 2019 season. If any trainer could get those performances out of him again, it’s Brown, and he can always improve in his second start off the layoff. I can only really judge him off of his recent form, which has been lacking. He’s a horse with upside, but bettors won’t be compensated appropriately if he wins.
3- Cerretalto
This gelding was running very consistently earlier this year, and has been training well for her comeback race here. Jimmy Bond and Luis Saez get along, especially at Saratoga, and while this runner seems a little out of his depth, I think he’ll give a good account of himself.
Order: 9 5 7 3
I like Strike That in this race, and I’m betting that his races at Oaklawn have prepared him well for this start. Chateau is admittedly a bit of a reach, but the speed’s been holding on the dirt at Saratoga, and this is the type of race this horse loves to steal. Free Enterprise is obviously a promising runner for Chad Brown, but he’ll have to recapture some of his previous form before I support him at short odds.
Race 9
Quick Call Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
I loved when many of these runners faced off last month in the Sir Cat Stakes, and I’m similarly excited here as they step into graded competition. My top four:
8- Turned Aside
This colt ran very well behind Jack and Noah last time out and was one of the few runners that wasn’t paced off their feet. That was his first race off the layoff, and he showed improvement as a three-year-old. This will be his second start of the year, and I think he may be able to turn the tables on a runner that’s quickly turning into his rival.
2- Jack and Noah (Fr)
Last time, I said that this horse likes to run like “his hair is on fire,” and really, there’s no better description. He flew last time, rendering closers totally ineffective in a blinding performance. He did exactly what he wanted to do in that race, but this time around, he may have a little tougher test. There’s only one horse to his inside, but High Cruise is a dirt horse that is similarly gifted when it comes to pace. This may be problematic for this brilliant young colt.
4- Old Chestnut
If a pace scenario becomes crowded up front, this colt will most directly benefit. He finished third last time out behind fellow runners Jack and Noah and Turned Aside, but he held his own. That was his first turf start of the year, and this will be his second off the layoff. If the race ends up favoring closer, I’d watch out for this one moving down the center of the track.
5- Fore Left
This colt is so weird. He was a proud member of Doug O’Neill’s Middle East Pandemic Road Trip, a gag name I like to use for a very real migration of O’Neill’s horses to Dubai earlier this year. Then, in his return race, he found some stiff competition in the… G1 Belmont Stakes. Yeah, that’s a pretty tough spot to return in. He moves to the turf here, which I guess is a surface he’s run on, and it feels like O’Neill knows this runner can compete but can’t figure out where. Maybe this is the spot.
Order: 8 2 4 5
Turned Aside has lost to Jack and Noah twice now, but I think this is an opportunity to finally get around him. From there, I think Old Chestnut was very impressive last time out, and may also get a more favorable scenario to run into in this one. Fore Left is a very confusing horse, and I kind of like him. He’s a charming inclusion because he makes very little sense on paper.
Race 10
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
This is a decent race, as these maiden races go. It’s a big field that should provide some value, but improvement and regression with these horses is fleeting. It’s tough to handicap, but that’s why they pay well. My top four:
1- Aintitfunkynow
He’s been running against solid competition at the statebred maiden special weight level, and Michael Maker finally gets him some class relief for this start. Irad Ortiz sticks around, and from there, there’s not much more to this. He’s simply never faced such a field before, and it should be advantageous for him.
3- Bricco
I regarded Bricco highly last time and he performed well, leading into the stretch before settling for second late. That was his first race off a very long layoff, and Jimmy Bond is pretty good with horses making their second start. Luis Saez returns, and it’s very reasonable to expect a solid performance from this runner here.
5- Operative
This gelding was unable to run on the turf last week, and David Donk seems mighty eager to get him on the grass. He’s not very successful with this angle, but I happen to like the urgency here. This horse must be rearing to go if Donk is so insistent that he runs here. The fact that he’s recruited Jose Ortiz really bolsters that point. There’s almost no statistical advantage that would compel a bettor to support this runner, but if a handicapper were to put themselves in the mind of the trainer, they might realize that this horse wants to run, and he wants to do it now.
12- Mommie’s Jewel
This colt made his turf debut sprinting last month, and he performed fairly well. Can he stretch out to a longer distance? I don’t know, what’re you asking me for? If I had to guess, Robert Falcone is very good when stretching out his horses, so I’d assume he thinks so. Luis Saez isn’t sticking around, but Joel Rosario is an interesting replacement. He has an upset chance here.
Order: 1 3 5 12
Aintitfunkynow and Bricco are probably the most qualified runners in the race, and I think the former will prove to be better than the latter. Operative is very interesting to me at a price because David Donk seems to know something I don’t. Mommie’s Jewel will stretch out for the first time, and it’s always hard to tell when horses can handle that.