This is a rare nondescript day at Saratoga, which makes it a good one for rain. It poured for most of the night, but the track’s dried out to a point that only two races will be taken off the turf.
Note: This morning, the Atlantic 10 Conference delivered a message to student-athletes announcing that the Fall 2020 athletic season was being suspended. As dutiful Sports & Health Editor of The Fordham Observer, I’ve been delayed significantly writing my analysis this morning. It will come in when it comes in, and I apologize for the delay.
Race 1
$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Inner Turf
It’s a good thing this race didn’t get rained off, because it would be completely unplayable. It’s a small field though, which won’t attract many bettors anyway. My top four:
6- Value Engineering
This Chad Brown colt returned last month off a nine-month layoff and delivered the best performance of his career, winning by a neck in an allowance race with a 90 BSF. He’ll likely be more heavily favored than he deserves, as there are a few in here that could contend with him. He’ll also be trying a slightly longer distance here. However, he does seem to be the most likely winner in the race.
5- Bundibunan
He’s been competing at a high level since last June, and in his first start off the layoff, he didn’t seem to lose a step, closing well for third with an 88 BSF. He hasn’t run at this exact distance, but he’s run close to it and found success, running a length and a quarter behind graded stakes winner Social Paranoia. In terms of experience, he has an edge over his favored rival, but he’ll have to take a step forward here.
7- Counter Offer
This gelding ran very well while closing into moderate fractions to upset an allowance field at Churchill Downs. It was a much improved performance and his first victory in almost two years, and he attempts to make it two in a row against a fairly small field here. He’s certainly in condition and can likely handle the distance, but he may just be a step below a few of his competitors.
2- Can’thelpbelieving
He’s a nine-year-old trained by Graham Motion that hasn’t run in two years. I don’t see what’s not to like.
Order: 6 5 7 2
I believe that Brown’s runner here should manage well in a field without discernible pace or variety. The 5 and 7 should handle themselves well, while Motion’s horse coming off the extremely long layoff is simply too weird to pass on for the fourth spot.
Race 2
$25,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is another underwhelming race for a different reason. The field size is considerable, but the talent is wanting. There’s a clear favorite, and I believe that attention is well deserved. My top four:
1- Dawn’s Early Light
I’m not exactly sure what happened to Kendrick Carmouche, but this horse stands head and shoulders above most of this weak field. His first race off the layoff was on the turf, and he still did fairly well, but in his start back in March, he ran well enough to defeat this field easily.
6- Lorenzen
This gelding’s last start earlier this month is literally the only performance in the entire field that could compete with Dawn’s Early Light. Eric Cancel and Amira Chicackly leave something to be desired, but this runner does have a 406 Tomlinson for wet tracks.
10- Brunate
He’s run consistently in two starts off the layoff for trainer Jimmy Bond. I like the addition of Tyler Gaffalione, although I don’t see a compelling case for improvement.
11- Imperio D
His last start was obviously a regression on his previous form, but Manny Franco is staying to ride, which is somewhat encouraging. Rudy Rodríguez has entered this horse at Saratoga before, and he outran his odds that day, so there’s a chance he can bounce back here.
Order: 1 6 10 11
Dawn’s Early Light should handle this field so long as she maintains consistent form. Lorenzen is an interesting option on a wet track, but outside of that, I believe this may just be a fight for second place.
Race 3
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
This is the first race of the day that I believe has a vulnerable favorite. Sometimes, bettors will focus on a horse’s past form and ignore a bad start or two that occurred recently. I believe that’s the case here, although I don’t believe that handicappers are as simple as the morning line oddsmaker is making them out to be here:
3- First Rate
In a race where I think the favorite is a little vulnerable, I try to find a horse that may outrun his form on paper. When Saffie Joseph ships a horse, I usually have to respect the move. This horse seems competitive at best against this field, but I don’t think his trainer would make this move for a competitive spot. Irad Ortiz and Joseph win with 47% of their mounts elsewhere, which is an astounding strike rate given the number of times they’ve worked together. I’ll take a shot with this runner.
4- The Rock Says
This gelding will be bet heavily based on his form before the layoff, which is plainly superior to any horse in here. However, when Stanley Hough entered this horse coming off the layoff, he oils have easily placed him back in an allowance race. Instead, he put him in a claiming race at Churchill Downs and he lost by 10 lengths at 1-2 odds. Robertino Diodoro must feel somewhat comfortable if he’s shipping him up here, but I can’t completely ignore that performance. If bettors expect to get a performance like the ones he was delivering in 2019, I think they’ll be disappointed.
6- Blood Moon
Kendrick Carmouche is excellent with horses displaying early speed, and he should find himself at home on this one. I’m not exactly sure why Gargan entered him on the turf in his last start, but it does play into one of his best angles while switching surfaces. Before that turf start, he ran well before and after the layoff on the dirt, although it’s clear that he does his best running when contending for the lead early. Carmouche should know what to do with him, and he has a solid chance here.
1- Universal Payday
Shipping from Penn National to Saratoga is a tall order, but Michael Trombetta hit yesterday with a long shot making its first start, so I’m not counting anything out at this point. His last race in Pennsylvania was an improvement in terms of speed figures, and if he could duplicate it, he could win here. Of course, as much as I usually trust Beyer and his speed figures, I have to be somewhat dubious of the fact that he could duplicate such a figure at Saratoga against significantly tougher competition. Still, Trombetta doesn’t seem to be messing around this meet, and he may just have another live horse here.
Order: 3 4 6 1
Irad Ortiz doesn’t ride for Saffie Joseph indiscriminately, which has led to a very high success rate. He’s riding First Rate here, and while he’s already competitive in this field, I believe he may take a step forward. The Rock Says is still good enough to win this race, but at 3-5 on the morning line, it’s necessary that I look elsewhere. Blood Moon is a classic Carmouche/Gargan connection, one I definitely prefer at Aqueduct. Regardless, he has a chance here while stalking the favorite. Universal Payday is getting a mention because Trombetta may just be bringing a loaded barn upstate.
Race 4
$25,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Old Fillies, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is why Saratoga races are harder than races anywhere else, as this $25,000 claiming race is harder than most others in the country. Everyone is shipping in their best claiming horse to contend, which makes for a much more competitive race. My top four:
2- Leaveuwithasmile
Jeremiah Englehart has expressed confidence with this filly from the very beginning, running her in two maiden special weights at Saratoga last year before keeping her in allowance competition all year at Laurel. Now he gives her class relief but ships her up to Saratoga, yet another sign that he likes this filly. Englehart works fairly well with Junior Alvarado, and this horse is one of two in here that have superior speed figures.
1- Customerexperience
This is the other serious contender here, but she doesn’t quite match up against Leaveuwithasmile in terms of experience or class. Her last race was a solid victory down at Gulfstream, one that earned a 73 BSF. However, he didn’t really improve in the stretch; it was more a matter of running down tired horses. Saffie Joseph wouldn’t bring her here if she didn’t have a chance, but it’s important to note that he’s had to go to Joel Rosario for this mount, a jockey he doesn’t often use despite his talent.
4- Pick Up the Fone
There are a lot of long names in this race. Leave it to Todd Pletcher to improve a horse’s form out of a doping trainer’s barn. In her first race off the layoff with his new trainer she performed much better, winning a claiming race in wire-to-wire fashion. She still appears to be a step below others here and he won’t get the same trip as last time, but Jose Ortiz is always an encouraging addition.
5- Stunning Munnings
She’s been performing well at this level on the New York circuit for a while now, and ships up to Saratoga without dropping in class. She seems to be a step below here for trainer David Duggan, but she can easily fight for a minor prize.
Order: 2 1 4 5
This is setting up to be a two-horse race between the 1 and 2, but Pick Up the Fone may have an upset chance as well. Stunning Munnings would be competitive at the level at Belmont, but seems a little out of her league up here.
Race 5 (OFF THE TURF)
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf (Off the Dirt)
One advantage of being delayed is that I get to adjust to track changes. I’m playing this race as if it’s being run on the dirt, which turns an interesting maiden event into a very sad dirt race. My top four:
5- Too Early
He’s the only Main Track Only starter in the race, and he’ll only have to go up against four horses that have been prepared for the turf. He also has a 421 Tomlinson for wet tracks, and Linda Rice does well enough off long layoffs to earn my trust.
4- Open Lengths
If this colt was running on the dirt in the first place, he probably would have taken more money. George Weaver is very good with first time starters, but he’s not as good with horses trying the turf for the first time. He enters on the dirt here, which he’s trained well on in the morning. I don’t know if he can handle the surface in a race, but I don’t know for a fact that he can’t either.
7- Scuttlebuzz
He tried the dirt in his first two starts, but his first start was much more promising than his second. Jonathan Thomas tried the turf with him in his first start off the layoff and wanted to keep him on that surface this time around. Instead, he’s returning to dirt, and it makes sense to keep him in the race. He can pick up a check here,
10- Sandro the Great
It was between this one and Voliero for fourth. It’s still Clement and Rosario, and the colt has a 376 Tomlinson for the wet. He’s raced once on the dirt in a performance that wasn’t hopeless, so he takes the fourth spot in this race bettors should skip.
Order On Dirt: 5 4 7 10
There’s not much to talk about here. I feel comfortable moving on.
Race 6
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Statebred races always indicate a dip in quality, even at Saratoga. Even still, there are some talented runners in this one that could make for an interesting, if forgettable, race. My top four:
8- Big Thicket
I picked him as my first selection in his last start when he finished second. However, I’m more encouraged by that performance, as it proved that his first race off the layoff wasn’t a fluke. This is simply the level at which this horse is currently racing, which is a great sign for his chances here. Irad Ortiz had a few choices in this race and chose to return to ride for Rudy Rodriguez on a horse with an excellent chance this time around.
3- Mission Wrapitup
This gelding has been racing against talented NY-bred three-year-olds this year, and takes his first chance here against older horses. There was an instance a few years back when Bolt D’Oro ran in the FrontRunner Stakes and Paradise Woods ran in the Zenyatta Stales on the same day at Santa Anita. They were both 1 1/16 miles and Bolt d’Oro ran nearly a second faster than Paradise Woods. However, Paradise Woods received the higher Beyer Speed Figure. Anyway, this three-year-old appears slower on paper based on his speed figures earned in three-year-old races, but Javier Castellano chose to ride for Chad Brown again, and there’s a reasonable chance he can compete here.
4- Giant Shoes
Javier Castellano isn’t sticking around to ride this three-year-old, but Joel Rosario is a fair replacement. He hasn’t raced on the dirt since February, and horses at three tend to improve more rapidly. Meanwhile, his first race off the layoff was in the turf and clearly wasn’t an attempt to win. Brad Cox’s incredible statistics suggest that today may be the day, although, he’ll have to take a serious step forward to challenge for first.
7- Vintage Hollywood
What happened last time out? Before his last start, this gelding was regularly competing at a level that could win this race. However, that last start makes me question if he’s in top condition, which will be required to take the top spot. Manny Franco stays for trainer Orlando Noda, who had a nice Saratoga meet last summer. He can improve while cutting back to seven furlongs, but I have to side with others that have proven they’re prepared.
Order: 8 3 4 7
Big Thicket lost to Tale of the Union with some bad racing luck last time out, but finds a softer field in this one. Mission Wrapitup will try older horses for the first time here for Chad Brown, and based on the competition he’s been running against, he may manage to make an effective transition. The same goes for Giant Shoes, as Brad Cox seems to have prepared him well for this start. Vintage Hollywood can rebound off of a bad start, but that performance can’t really be ignored either.
Race 7
De La Rose Stakes (Ungraded) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won a Graded Sweepstake in 2020, One Mile on the Inner Turf
If I block out the trainer’s names for this race, it seems to be an entertaining contest between some talented horses trying to break through to the next level of turf racing. However, Chad Brown had to scratch Blowout and still somehow has three serious contenders in the race. I hesitantly tossed one of them and tried to beat the other two in my top four:
3- Passing Out
She finished ahead of Got Stormy in her last start, and now she’s in a restricted stakes race. It’s very difficult to beat Chad Brown in races like these, but I think Shug McGaughey has the right horse here. In her four-year-old campaign so far, she’s dominated an optional claimer at Tampa and then finished third in the G3 Beaugay behind Rushing Fall. This is actually a breather for her after such a race, and I think she’ll handle it well despite a lack of pace.
2- Noor Sahara (Ire)
I don’t really get how this filly didn’t win in her last start, but somehow, she finished third. I suppose handicappers could criticize her willpower to lose in a position like that, but if she had won the photo finish, it’s less likely that it would come up. That optional claiming race was her first in the country, and she’s a member of a Chad Brown contingent that tends to do very well in races like this.
1- Catch a Bid
I don’t like this filly’s victory last time out, as she won going to wire to wire through glacially slow fractions. The problem, however, is that Blowout has been scratched from this race, which means that such a trip is possible again here. She’s an extremely consistent performer for Chad Brown, and she seems to have found compatible partner in Tyler Gaffalione. Her last race wasn’t as impressive as others in here, but that might not matter in this one.
4- Clara Peeters (GB)
This Brad Cox trainee ran very well to win her last start, running down two horses dueling in the stretch to win going away. She was running into fairly quick fractions that day, however, and it’s unclear if she’ll have the same luck here. She’s proven she can handle the distance and Brad Cox is excellent with horses entering their second starts off of layoffs, so she clearly has a chance.
Order: 3 2 1 4
Passing Out strikes me as the most talented runner in this race, and she may even be a little underbet because her trainer is a solid shooter rather than a machine gunner. Chad Brown’s two top contenders take the second and third spots, and then I believe Clara Peeters take my final spot for Brad Cox, despite the fact that Brown’s third horse is also somewhat concerning to me.
Race 8
$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
I don’t like this race at all. It’s a turf sprint with six horses in it, which is bad enough. But the 1 is a dirt horse, the 2 is a router, the 3 has never won on the turf, the 4 is cheap, the 5 is inoffensive, and the 6 is coming off a very long layoff. To top it off, Chad Brown has a 33% chance of winning outright. My top four:
5- Lady Worthington
She’s a short turf sprinter, which should be a prerequisite in this race but isn’t for some reason. Wesley Ward has been getting creative with this one as of late, bringing her to Turfway Park and notching a victory on that synthetic track. Creativity usually means that he thinks highly of the horse, and now he feels confident enough in her ability to bring her to Saratoga. She doesn’t win often, but she possesses a little early speed, and again, she has consistent experience at this distance. If she’s ever going to win a race, this is the distance she’ll be running, and that makes her a viable long shot here.
3- Lady Lawyer
After a competitive runner-up finish in her first race stateside, Chad Brown decides to cut this filly back to her shortest distance ever. I don’t love that move, as I think she would do fine if entered at a longer distance. However, I suppose Chad Brown has a reason for making this move, and if she can bring her form to this distance, she’ll be very dangerous. It’s interesting to note that she’s never won a turf race.
6- Turf War
This filly left Chad Brown’s barn last year and joined Christophe Clement, who brings her back here after a very long layoff. She has experience at this distance, though she’s run better going longer in the past. That makes me think that this may be a workout for her before he stretches her back out in subsequent starts.
2- Olendon (Fr)
This horse is a turf router. She hasn’t run in a sprint since 2018, but for some reason, Chad Brown feels that cutting her back is the right move. He’s right often, and she’s not his only horse cutting back in distance here. However, I feel like she’ll be overbet because of her trainer, and that could create value elsewhere.
Order: 5 3 6 2
This is a very tough race because very few of the horses appear to want to do what they’re entered to do. I’ll take a chance with Lady Worthington, who I think is a sprinter if nothing else. Lady Lawyer and Olendon are two Chad Brown trainees with very glaring issues, while Turf War may just be getting a workout here.
Race 9
Shine Again Stakes (Ungraded) for Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward Which Have Not Won A Sweepstake In 2020, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a very entertaining dirt race that could easily be graded. There’s a lot of pace up front, but that pace consists of very tough runners, so it may hold more than some may expect. My top four:
2- Risky Mandate
This filly’s last race was heavily aided by a fast pace up front. However, it’s very easy to project a similar pace developing in this one. She didn’t demonstrate much improvement from three to four in her first start off the layoff, but she did show at three that she raced well at seven furlongs. Tom Amoss couldn’t get Jose Ortiz to return to ride this year, which is somewhat concerning, but overall, this runner should get a very solid pace to run at. She should be running late.
5– Indian Pride
She generated a lot of buzz before her race on Belmont Stakes Day last month, and she condescendingly did away with the competition. She’s quite possibly one of the best looking horses on the track right now, and she’s repeatedly demonstrated an ability to duel under hot fractions and find success all the same. She’s an extremely impressive runner, and I won’t be at all surprised if she wins here.
10- Please Flatter Me
She was well beaten by Guarana in her last start, but she wasn’t the only one. In her second off the layoff, this Steve Asmussen trainee will stay at seven furlongs and should manage a position behind the early leaders. She may not be good enough to win, but she can pick up the pieces for a minor prize.
9- Blamed
This mare’s game plan rarely changes, and that may hurt her in this race. She always goes to the lead, but in this race, she’s going to have to run on the outside of an extremely dangerous opponent, Indian Pride. Under the right conditions, this horse is absolutely talented enough to win here. However, I think she’ll have a serious test here.
Order: 2 5 10 9
I’m taking Risky Mandate for a slight price here, but I really want to see what Indian Pride can do in the first proper test of her 2020 season. Please Flatter Me may find herself in a solid fight for a minor prize late, while Blamed will have to pull off a very impressive feat to outduel Indian Pride on the outside and hang on late.
Race 10 (OFF THE TURF)
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Inner Turf (Moved to Dirt)
This race is a wash in the literal and figurative sense. My top four:
14- Cold Hard Cash
Jose Ortiz steps in to ride for this Linda Rice trainee in a Main Track Only situation. He hasn’t raced since last year, when he made three starts of varying quality against maiden special weight fields. He gets class relief in his three-year-old debut, and he has tactical speed that may aid him in the type of race that usually comes down to one or two horses in the stretch.
11- True Grace
He was heavily favored in her last start but didn’t return with his best performance. Some of that may be to blame for a track that was extremely kind to early speed, and this time around, he’s facing off against turf horses on an unfamiliar surface.
5- Diannesimpazible
He raced on dirt in five starts at two, and has only recently made the transition to turf. He’s being forced back to his original surface for Rudy Rodriguez, who would keep his horse in the race if it was being run on hot coals. A little dirt ability could come in handy.
9- Golconda
This horse has run on dirt often, and seems equally capable on both surfaces. However, he’s a 17-race maiden and will likely do little more than a fight for show money.
Order: 14 11 5 9
I’d be wary of betting horses coming out of this race going forward, unless they’re being put back on the turf.