Adapt and overcome, right? My advice to bet light on the first day at Saratoga may have hurt some bettors, but it sure served me well. With a few exceptions, my handicapping yesterday was scattered and inconsistent, and I’m approaching the card today with even more caution. That being said, I think there’s a lot to learn from going into the second day.
The most obvious lesson I learned is that Kentucky shippers appear to be plainly superior to New York horses, at least in the early stages of this meet. In open company contests, not counting well-traveled turf star Golden Pal, five winners on Opening Day shipped from Kentucky. The more nuanced lesson concerns pace handicapping, and in all honesty, I’m not quite smart enough to crack it just yet. The fact of the matter, though, is that the predictable pace setups at Belmont are nothing like the ones at Saratoga. That one may require more thought on my end.
There are some very enjoyable races today, particularly the G3 Forbidden Apple, and a few where I feel somewhat secure in my selections. Even still, I fully intend to enjoy my second day back at the Spa without worrying about any dwindling funds. There are few better places to be, after all.
Race 1
$80,000 Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
5- Shashashakemeup
4- Gun It
1- Girolamo’s Attack
1A- Smooth B
These races have never been by greatest strength, but looking for a horse in form that belongs at this level seems simple enough, right? In the end, I think three runners fit that description and two of them have shown interest at the wire. I actually saw Shashashakemeup in person when he ran at Parx last time out. He was certainly the best horse on the track but pace dynamics got the better of him, as the second best horse in the race got the lead to himself and didn’t look back. Despite the adverse conditions, this Peter Miller colt still finished well in that race, and his back class speaks for itself. The pace may be an issue again here, but the field should be more compact too, and I’m willing to give him another chance. Gun It has raced with astounding consistency for the better part of two years now and never seems to have a bad start. The problem, of course, is that he’s 2-for-19 lifetime and hasn’t won since 2019. His effort in his last start, a losing photo finish to Necker Island, was good enough to win this race, but many other efforts in his career have been good enough too. Girolamo’s Attack turned in a very solid performance off the layoff last time out, in much the same way that he has performed off similar layoffs in the past. He was fresh in his career debut and again in September of last year, but in each case, his second race back wasn’t quite as sharp as the first. He will likely need to improve slightly to take on Shashashakemeup and others in this race, and patterns in his previous form suggest the opposite. Of all the contenders in this race, Smooth B is most likely to benefit from the probable pace setup, and Frankie Pennington is staying at Saratoga for another day to ride him. He has also defeated Admiral Abe, the runner that defeated Shashashakemeup last time out, on two separate occasions. I’m tempted to place him higher, but his speed figures are a little light and he simply hasn’t competed at a level of racing that unequivocally suggests he can take down a salty field like this one.
Race 2
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bree Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
6- Clear Humor
3- Arms an Armor
8- Quick Return
4- Brew Pub
I think this race is a rare instance where speed figures will provide little help to handicappers. Clear Humor didn’t finish well in his first start, but he could have run a 80 BSF and he still would have lost to River Dog and Big Bobby that day. George Weaver is making the right decision to drop him in class, and many of the also-rans in that race have done the same thing and improved next time out. I’m applying the same angle to Arms an Armor, who has competed in extremely deep waters in three straight starts and now finds a much more comfortable level in which to compete. Quick Return is the runner with speed figures on his side, but he has consistently competed at this level (or lower) and has finished second three times in four starts. He’s asking to be beaten and I believe my top two choices are prime options to do it. Brew Pub is an intriguing puzzle to figure out on paper because I don’t believe his amount of races is reflective of his legitimate chances to win. Still, a 12-race maiden will always inspire trepidations, and a loser at Finger Lakes is difficult to support at Saratoga.
Race 3
$45,000 Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
6- Chocolate Cookie
4- Light in the Sky
3- Timeless Journey
2- Giacosa
This race crushed my spirit at around six o’clock in the evening yesterday. I found the first two races of the day interesting, but this one really didn’t bring me joy. Any horse in the race can win; there’s almost no difference in form or class or any other factor. I think I’ll have to skip it on principle alone, but I’ll put my ramblings down on paper for fun. Chocolate Cookie is probably the coolest horse in the race, showing versatility in her two victories and earning a big speed figure in her most recent start back in October. The layoff is obviously troublesome, but Todd Pletcher’s choice to bring his filly back on the second day of the Saratoga meet is conspicuous. Right? I don’t know. Light in the Sky is the kind of filly that runs the same race every time. If it’s good enough to win, she has no problem finding the winner’s circle, but she gets beat a lot and doesn’t seem to mind that either. Timeless Journey is an intriguing option in this race, even if Christophe Clement seems uncertain about her preferred surface. She has run well on the turf in any case, particularly at Saratoga, where she went 2-for-2 last year. Giacosa is a runner that I’m fairly familiar with, but I’m always vaguely surprised when she wins. She always appears a little sluggish on the track but always seems to do enough to get in the mix.
Race 4
$100,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 3/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
6- Now Yus Cant Leave
5- Flaming Rouge
8- Lisheen
7- Angelou
The result of this race will likely come down to correctly evaluating the strength of three previous maiden fields at Belmont. The tote board is also important here, because my choice for first is dependent on my belief that Flaming Rouge will be a little overbet as a vulnerable favorite. Now Yus Cant Leave has had two middling maiden starts on paper and has already lost to fellow runners Flaming Rouge and Angelou, but I think there’s more to her. Last time out, she closed into very slow fractions while Angelou benefitted from the same setup up front. More importantly, the pair are stretching out in this race and I think N.Y.C.L. is the one desperately calling out for more distance. I’m a little wary of Flaming Rouge after two place finishes stateside and plenty more defeats back in Europe, but she is undeniably the filly to beat here. She dusted Now Yus Cant Leave back in May and came back with a similarly strong performance in June at a longer distance. The strength of his competitors that day is unclear, but the speed figure speaks for itself, and the familiarity with longer turf distances might just be enough to get her to the wire this time. I believe that Lisheen is the stronger of the two Graham Motion trainees based on their last start together, and while the distance isn’t much of a question, I have questions about the strength of that race in general. It’s also concerning that Motion and Jose Ortiz were 0-for-8 together at Saratoga last year.
Race 5
$12,500 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
6- Seeds of Time
2- Yes I’m Evil
5- Absolute Love
1- Violent Trick
This is a sleepy race, but there are a few angles I found interesting enough to develop a vague conviction. Seeds of Time seemed to be alternating between weak races and strong races earlier this year until a particularly poor performance put him on the shelf. There are several factors in her form, though, that bolster the possibility of a rebound. Danny Gargan is a wizard off the claim, and in June 2020, she returned off a comparable and won with a sharp figure at Churchill Downs. The claiming angle could go either way, as Gargan drops her in class with the potential aim of getting rid of her, but Irad Ortiz isn’t one to mess around on that sort of runner. Yes I’m Evil is an interesting runner coming off the layoff because her small-time trainer was clearly aiming for this race at Saratoga. She had a big victory back in March at the Fair Grounds that could win here, but it seems like her days of consistent victories are behind her. I expect a strong performance in any case. Absolute Love has been beating up on cheaper claimers all over the south recently and steps up in class again here in form for Joe Sharp. She’s going to hit a wall eventually, though, and she doesn’t seem to fight well when put to the test in the stretch. Violent Trick is a frustrating runner that is probably capable of more than her recent form suggests, and may be in the mix late for a small prize.
Race 6
$85,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
2- Let Her Inspire U
4- Kant Hurry Love
5- Tough Street
7- November Rein
If yesterday is any lesson, it’s abundantly clear that first time starters are more formidable in these races than the experienced runners. I’ve been betting on Practical Joke’s progeny for a few months now, and Let Her Inspire U looks promising in any case for Todd Pletcher. Kant Hurry Love clearly needed a race after hopping out of the starting gate last time out, but she flew home to take show and could easily take a big step forward this time around. Tough Street is the other intriguing first time starter, but I don’t have much luck with Chad Brown dirt debutantes for whatever reason.
Race 7
$103,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
6- Mused (GB)
4- Miner’s Queen
3- Mumbai
10- Rivendell
This is a very difficult race to figure out, and I don’t have much conviction. Eddie Kenneally seemed to discover something about Mused last time out that the Europeans missed, shortening him to five and a half furlongs at Churchill Downs. She really seemed to take to it, finishing well in a very stout field at 20-1 odds. This isn’t a much softer spot, but now she’s a proven runner and could have a say. Steve Asmussen was understandably hesitant to put Miner’s Queen back on the turf after a turbulent debut, but it was all she needed to finally break her maiden in a very impressive wire-to-wire performance. She has clearly gained a competitive edge and could easily take on winners with a similar running style. Mumbai and Rivendell both seem like legitimate contenders, but they both seem to be a half step below my top two and I don’t see compelling reasons for either to improve significantly.
Race 8
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Old Fillies, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
1- Bayshore Foxes (SCRATCHED)
8- Patty H
6- Easy to Bless
7- Greatest Love
There are two very clear contenders in this race, and there’s also my top pick. Bayshore Foxes has struggled ever since her MSW win on debut at Oaklawn, but her appearance here makes me curious if she can’t return to her earlier form. She has been in some tricky spots as of late and finds a more reasonable level here, and Philip Bauer wouldn’t bring her up here without a chance. She’s an interesting upset horse, especially with the top two contenders at one another throats. Patty H and Easy to Bless are by far the most formative runners in the field and will both try to win the same way. With both of them flying on the front end, though, I have to wonder if they’ll manage to run back to better races. Both have shown the ability to duel, however, which could make a 1-2 finish a distinct possibility. Greatest Love rounds out the top four after a convincing loss to Patty H last time out.
Race 9
Forbidden Apple Stakes (G3) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
9- Sacred Life (Fr)
3- Value Proposition (GB)
7- Delaware (GB)
1- Rinaldi
I know that races like these aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, but I really appreciate good horses. This is an excellent turf field full of familiar faces, and Chad Brown seems to be trying to circle the field. My choice to take his three horses on top was incidental, but I’m not changing my mind either. Sacred Life has been racing well against much tougher fields than this one, and his lack of recent victories is a result of a hike in class. He returns to G3 competition here and I believe he will take full advantage on Saratoga turf that he has loved in the past. Value Proposition has always been pointed for graded stakes competition, but his career has stalled several times in strange ways. He ran very well in an allowance race in his second start as a five-year-old and I believe he’s prepared to begin a consistent run at this level going forward. Delaware is a highly respectable runner that always seems to close fast. He has only won once for Chad Brown stateside, though, which is a difficult feat for the country’s best turf trainer. Rinaldi always has a chance with significant competing speed, but his staying power is limited against horses of this caliber.
Race 10
$85,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
6- Uncle’s Gem
4- U Should Be Dancing
1- Baudi Moovan
8- Kreesa La Wrote
I’m going to try to beat U Should Be Dancing because she’s had a few too many tries to make a convincing case for the top spot. Uncle’s Gem lost to her by four lengths in her first start, but I believe it was an educational trip where she could have had more luck anyway. Irad Ortiz stays on for Linda Rice, which is more than enough for me to give her a second chance. Baudi Moovan is a $260,000 purchase for Jeremiah Englehart, but I would like to see her race at least once before I support her wholeheartedly.