Saratoga Analysis: Friday, August 7, 2020

Happy Travers Eve! In addition to the G2 Saratoga Special, this is actually a very solid Saratoga card featuring a lot of deep races. It’s an excellent warmup for what should be a heaving betting day tomorrow.

Note: All races are up.

Race 1

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

This is the first of several races where I’m going against the favorite on this card, but outside of that, it’s actually an interesting handicapping race. I think I may get tripped up because there are certain answers I was unable to come up with:

8- Selfmade

He was probably the best horse last time out, when he dueled and repelled two other runners but was run down late and had to settle for second. Still, it was a great start for a Bill Mott colt, because his trainer is terrible coming off layoffs. He’s very good in seconds starts off layoffs though, and I think it’s a performance the colt can build on in a spot where he may be better prepared.

1- Klickitat

This gelding has been one of the best runners in Jimmy Jerkens’ barn lately, which is really a damning fact speaking to his lack of success recently. I think last race was an excellent opportunity for this runner to win, as he established a clear early lead but couldn’t hold on in the stretch. Too many performances like that one might make a handicapper wary at such short odds, and he’s finished second five times in nine starts now. I’ll take a shot against him here.

6- Spiritual King

I think his first start off the layoff could have shown a couple things. A) Gregory Sacco isn’t good off of layoffs. B) This gelding isn’t a turf sprinter. C) This horse has taken a significant step back in form since leaving Todd Pletcher’s barn. I honestly can’t decide which is the case, but the fact that I fear C is scaring me away a little. His performances back in April in open company make him competitive here, especially his fourth place finish behind Bayou Prospector. However, Irad Ortiz was riding last time out, but now, Sacco has to recruit Tyler Gaffalione, a rider he hasn’t worked with. I have my reservations.

7- Petrus

He was well beaten in his last start, finishing behind fellow runner Klickitat. Both of his starts for Michael Dickinson indicate that he’ll need to improve to win here, though his extremely late runnin style will make him a viable option at some point down the line with some luck.

Order: 8 1 6 7

Klickitat has a bad case of seconditis, and at short odds, I feel obligated to take a chance against him with Selfmade, who I think will improve in his second start off the layoff. Spiritual King is a really tricky puzzle that I’m not really too confident in one way or another.

 

Race 2

$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

My analysis isn’t very useful in this race because I know about as much as anyone else. Anything can happen here, but I didn’t feel that there was an unbeatable favorite when forming my top four:

1- Cobra Kai

Jeremiah Englehart has been a little chilly at Saratoga thus far this meet, but I doubt his ability with two-year-olds has completely disappeared from one season to the next. His runner here has a 380 Tomlinson for the distance and he recruited Irad Ortiz to ride him.

5- Super Computer

Brad Cox probably has a deserving favorite here. While his first start statistics are a little pedestrian, his colt has been lighting up the stopwatches in the morning and a 393 Tomlinson indicates he’ll handle the distance. 

7- Lookin For Trouble

He’s one of two runners in the race with experience, and finished fourth in a blanket finish last time behind fellow runner Cotton. However, Michael Maker is much better with runners making their second start and his colt had to duel that day and weakened. Jose Ortiz stays to ride.

4- Sandor Clegane

Michael Stidham never really pushes his horses in the morning, and his choice to ship this colt from Monmouth is revealing enough. This runner has a 402 Tomlinson for the distance and Joel Rosario will ride for a patient trainer.

Order: 1 5 7 4

Cobra Kai, Super Computer, and Sandor Clegene are complete unknowns, and my ranking of them is largely arbitrary and based on their trainers. Lookin For Trouble is the better of the two experienced runners, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to win against some of these debuting.

 

Race 3

$35,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf

This is effectively a three-horse race, which is better than a one- of two-horse race but not as good as a four-horse race. My top four:

2- Music of Life

She hasn’t run since May, but I don’t think that’s a significant layoff, especially for Danny Gargan. Since moving to the turf late last year, she’s competed very well on nearly every occasion against some very talented horses. This filly is one of three main contenders in this race, but she finished ahead of fellow runner Bean Counter back in March. Tyler Gaffalione returns to ride, and I think she’ll be very competitive here.

6- Sun Summers

Her speed figures have been lacking a little lately, but in her last start, she was claimed away from Jane Cibelli to join Michael Maker. That’s a significant trainer upgrade, and it helps that Irad Prtiz has already been riding her for a lesser trainer. She’s taking a step up in class here after breaking the previous condition, and while she’ll have to improve, Maker has done much more with much less lately.

9- Bean Counter

This filly finally got her second victory last time out, running down Princess Fawzia in the stretch and winning a photo by a head. Based on her past performances, though, it seems that she does just enough to remain competitive, and in order for her to win, she has to be superior to the field. That was the case last time, but it certainly isn’t the case this time around. I think she’ll run well, but I’m looking elsewhere for the winner.

7- Seeking Revenge

She’s a step below the main three, but she has improved over the past few months. She was out of her league in the River Memories last time out, and gets some class relief here. John Stephens isn’t all that compelling as a trainer, though, and he doesn’t appear fast enough.

Order: 2 6 9 7

I’m fairly happy with my order of the top three runners, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ran in a different order. That being said, I don’t see anyone else doing enough to defeat all three of them.

 

Race 4

$75,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf

This isn’t the strongest maiden claiming race ever, and would probably fit well at the $40,000 level. However, I think it includes a vulnerable favorite, and I’ll be taking a chance in my top four:

5- Halo City

He’s only started running on the turf recently, but in two performances, he’s been running very well. Three horses he’s finished behind, Cost Benefit, Windfall Profit, and Dovima, are all highly touted young runners, and they’re not matched by anyone in this field. He’s proven to have versatility, finding relative success from the back as well as near the front, and I think he’ll compete with class relief here.

7- Baseline Drive

Chad Brown started this horse in a FL-bred maiden race, where she closed ground in the end but had to settle for fourth. She’s making her second start here, and because she’s trained by Chad Brown, she’ll receive a lot of betting attention. That being said, I’d like bettors to consider whether they would like her as much if she was trained by any other trainer before they make her the 7-5 favorite.

6- Hot Button

Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz don’t often team up, but they have a lot of success when they do, which makes this first time starter interesting. She’s had some decent workouts as well and boasts a 378 Tomlinson for the distance. Cox isn’t very profitable with firsters, but this one seems promising.

8- Carefree Highway

I wonder if Dale Romans is being sneaky with this runner. She’s only run on the turf once, and it was the best start of her career right before the layoff. When Romans brought her back to Churchill, he entered her on dirt, where she improved slightly but largely ran to form. Now he’s shipping her to Saratoga and entering her on her preferred surface. She’ll probably have to take a small step forward to win, but I’m not counting her out completely either.

Order: 5 7 6 8

Halo City has been competing well against better horses than the ones she’ll be facing here. Baseline Drive is getting Chad Brown attention that I believe is undue, while Hot Button could be a promising runner for Brad Cox. Carefree Highway is intriguing, and I wouldn’t be surprised by her either.

 

Race 5

$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

This is a ridiculously deep field, and while there aren’t any standouts, there aren’t any plodders either. These are all hard-knocking allowance horses, and any of them can win. My top four:

7- Skamania

I really, really like this runner based on her last start. After nearly five months on the shelf, she was entered by Al Stall in a race where she appeared overmatched. At 32-1, she dueled on the outside of another long shot that eventually finished dead last. They set blistering fractions up front, and not only did the race set up for closers, but immensely talented closers like Unique Factor and Risky Mandate. Through all of this, she still held gamely for third. She’s entering her second race off the layoff, has been shipped up to Saratoga, finds an easier field, will likely get the lead, and is trained by one of the hottest trainers at the track right now. I can only hope she’s 6-1 at post time.

2- Honor Way

I appreciate this mare because she always tries. She was 41-1 in her last start and was never going to defeat Indian Pride, but she outran her odds to take fifth in a tough 10-horse field. She won at this level two starts back, finishing ahead of fellow runner Fair Regis, and Jose Ortiz is returning to ride for Charlton Baker here. She’s not the type of runner that squandered opportunities to win, which will always make her a secure wager.

1- Bridlewood Cat

She clearly wasn’t entered to win in her first start off the layoff, so to find the extent of her ability, I have to look at her last race before the layoff. She ran fourth that day behind fellow runners Slimey and Kept True, but that’s not the full story. Her chance at a stalking trip evaporated when she stumbled badly at the start of the race. She recovered well and flew in the stretch, making up five lengths in the stretch but coming up short. She got a freshener at Belmont on the turf in her first start back, and I think she’ll be ready to go this time around for Jonathan Thomas, who’s still somehow winless in New York since Aqueduct.

3- Fair Regis

This mare hasn’t run outside the top four in over a year, so it’s not like I can toss her completely from consideration here. She’s stepped up in class recently but handled it well, competing against Honor Way in defeat two starts back. My issue is that she’s had several opportunities to win and has hung a bit. She’s been extremely close to the leader in her last three starts but hasn’t been able to find the winner’s circle, which makes a minor prize here more likely.

Order: 7 2 1 3

I haven’t liked a horse as much as Skamania in about a month. Her last race was phenomenal, and Al Stall was absolutely aware of it when he shipped her up here. I’d be overjoyed at 3-1, but she’s 6-1 on the morning line. Honor Way is a very honest runner that I’m not counting out under any circumstance, while Bridlewood Cat could take a big step forward here for a trainer that’s been struggling lately. Fair Regis is probably taking up a spot in fourth, but I can’t leave her out because she’s always close at the end.

 

Race 6

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

This is the beginning of a transitional period in these juvenile maiden races, as experienced runners will begin to face off against debuting horses. These may be even trickier than differentiating between firsters, because the bar to meet in order to win is suddenly unclear. Are the firsters more talented, or do the experienced runners set the status quo? My top four:

7- Mad Maddy

After seeing so many American Pharoah offspring find success on the turf, I’m now curious how he would have done if given a chance on the grass. This experienced two-year-old seeemd to handle the surface change very well last time out, running second after setting a very quick pace up front early. That experience should be very valuable here against a bunch of first time starters, and I think he can take a step forward now that he’s more accustomed to the surface.

10- Credit Enhancement

Chad Brown, Klaravich Stables, and Irad Ortiz.

8- Army Wife

Michael Maker isn’t great with first time starters, but he does recruit Jose Ortiz to ride in this filly’s debut. She’s been training pretty well and has a 366 Tomlinson for the distance.

1- O’Gotten Girl

Gary Gullo has a few strengths, but this kind of race definitely doesn’t play to them. However, the presence of Joel Rosario is something to go on here, because he and Gullo regularly connect, at Saratoga and elsewhere. A hapless trainer and one of the hottest jockeys at the track will team up on this upset firster.

Order: 7 10 8 1

Mad Maddy is much more experienced than other runners in this race, and I think that will translate to a victory in her second start on turf. Credit Enhancement strikes me as the probable firster to bet, but Army Wife and O’Gotten Girl are interesting crap shoots as well.

 

Race 7

$25,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

This race is insanely wide open, and could feasibly be won by all nine horses. I tried my best to form a top four:

6- Excess Capacity

The only time this filly hasn’t run well on the dirt is when I picked her to win two starts back. I fully intend on running her plans again. She was clearly in over her head last time out, and Mertkan Kantarmaci realized that and drops her back down in class for this start. More importantly, he recruits Irad Ortiz to ride, and when these two connect, they’re incredibly profitable together. I like the filly’s chances here.

3- Archumybaby

She’s really found her stride lately, winning two starts back by a nose over Jump For Joy, who won her next start in a rematch against this runner. Orlando Noda has been excellent at Saratoga this meet and he recruits Luis Saez to ride, and it’s nearly guaranteed that she contends here late.

1- Lady By Choice

She competed well in her first start at Saratoga, finishing a half length behind fellow runner Archumybaby. It’s shocking to see Irad Ortiz leave Michael Maker’s mount to ride for Mertkan Kantarmaci, which is one of the biggest reasons for betting for Excess Capacity. That being said, I still expect this mare to compete well here.

7- Mo Flash

When Excess Capacity performed terrible last time out, I picked this runner in my top four as well. They finished at the back of the field, and I tossed her in her next start when she won. Barring the occasion when I bet on her, this mare has competed very consistently at this level, and seems to be back in form following a layoff. It is important to note that Chris Englehart is still winless at Saratoga, but she can still run well here.

Order: 6 3 1 7

Excess Capacity seems to be back in competing shape, and with Irad Ortiz riding, I feel confident that this will be an attempt to win. The following three, as well as the rest of the field, could just as easily run well and I wouldn’t be surprised. On the bright side, a handicapper with the right bets here will be compensated for their abilities.

 

Race 8

$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf

As statebred allowances go, this was actually an enjoyable race to mull over, though I was admittedly a little impatient to get to the feature race on this card. My top four:

1- Silky Blue

In her maiden victory back in June, she defeated Fresco by a nose, and that filly then went on to capture a statebred stakes in her next start. Jorge Duarte was wise to keep her on the turf off the layoff, as she responded very well and pulled off the upset that day. In retrospect, however, her performance is legitimate, and against a rather weak allowance field, she’s a very live favorite.

7- Jen’s Battle

Unlike every other runner in this race, this filly has been competing on the turf in New York open company recently, which is a very big deal that may even minimize the effect of her slightly lacking speed figures. She won a fairly competitive $40,000 claiming race two starts back, and then held her own in a starter allowance against the likes of Keota and Tiple. This is definitely a drop in class now that she’s returned to statebred competition, and I think Robert Falcons had something like this planned the entire time.

5- Giacosa

After breaking her maiden two starts back at the maiden special weight level, she proved that it wasn’t a fluke, outrunning her odds at this level in a much deeper field than this one. Jimmy Bond has been very good at Saratoga this meet, and while Manny Franco has left to ride Fresco, Tyler Gaffalione is a decent pickup. I can easily see her fight for a minor prize here.

2- Tatterazzi

John Terranova is actually having a better meet as a trainer than Luis Saez is having as a jockey, but they team up here with this filly coming off a layoff from Tampa Bay Downs. She finally broke her maiden down there, but did so with a very clear lead against a very weak field. Her speed figures before the layoff indicate that she fits here, but I’ll be looking elsewhere.

Order: 1 7 5 2

Silky Blue’s maiden win is only becoming more impressive with time, and as long as she maintains her form, I think she’ll do well here in her first test against winners. Jen’s Battle is a viable upset pick as a filly dropping to statebred completion after some solid performances in open company. Giacosa is certainly better that Tatterazzi, and I’m giving her the edge in a virtual fight for third.

 

Race 9

Saratoga Special (G2) for Two-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

These juvenile races are regularly excellent at Saratoga, and this is another excellent field of promising youngsters looking to break through. My top four:

6- Cazadero

This colt backed up a stellar maiden performance with an equally impressive performance in the G3 Bashford Manor. That was a weaker field than the one he’s slated to face here, but he’s now proven that he can win tactically. Steve Asmussen has two runners here but has put Ricardo Santana on this one. He’s been stellar thus far, and I don’t see a reason for that to stop.

10- Jackie’s Warrior

He only has a maiden victory under his belt, but it was a victory over fellow runner Therideofalifetime, who improved significantly in his next start. His performance that day was very impressive, as he was forced to back off the pace and then re-rallied to take command at the top of the stretch. He hasn’t run since June, but Steve Asmussen must like the way he’s progressed since then. Joel Rosario steps in for Ricardo Santana, and I think he has an excellent chance of stepping up here.

9- Therideofalifetime

After losing to fellow runner Jackie’s Warrior in his first start, this colt improved dramatically to dominate in his second start. It could have been a mix between the extra furlong and improvement second time out, but he proved to be a juvenile with promise. Ignacio Correas brings a live runner up to Saratoga every now and again, and Jose Ortiz seems intent to stay aboard. He has an excellent chance here.

7- Momos

This colt seemed a little obscure in his first start but quickly proved doubters wrong. Christophe Clement’s hot streak continued as this colt ran away in the stretch to win by six and a half lengths. However, the speed figure he earned that day wasn’t as sharp as others here, and he earned it with a clear early lead. He’ll have to improve a little to win here, but I’m not saying it’s out of the question.

Order: 6 10 9 7

Cazadero strikes me as an extremely promising juvenile, and if he continues on this current path, he’ll be a shoe-in for the BC Juvenile in November. Jackie’s Warrior makes an Asmussen exacta, and her first race combined with her trainer’s confidence makes her a solid option here. Therideofalifetime is another excellent runner that seems to relish this six-furlong distance. Momos will have to improve along with several others here, but Christophe Clement has been excellent lately.

 

Race 10

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

2- Tilsa

Alright, Jonathan Thomas. Buddy. Come on now. This filly is extremely qualified in this race, and has speed figures that are superior to the other contenders. This cold streak has to end at some point. The runners he lost to last time are all far more talented than his competition in this race, and this losing streak has to end at some point.

4- Tesorina

The key here is the presence of Irad Ortiz, because without him, this Wesley Ward trainee would be highly questionable. Something clearly went very wrong early last year, and she’s been on the shelf ever since. Bring her back for $40,000 is tough to see, and without Ortiz, this would be one to go against.

10- Microcap

Chad Brown, Klaravich Stables, and… Tyler Gaffalione? Alright, whatever.

6- Yellen

Wesley Ward and Dylan Davis don’t do well together at Saratoga, but that deosnt mean that they can’t fight for a minor prize here. I regarded this filly highly in her last start, and she was a little disappointing finishing third. Her speed figures aren’t quite good enough to win here, but improvement in her second start off the layoff could help her chances at a price.

Order: 2 4 10 6