This is a very interesting Saratoga card on a beautiful Long Island Friday. It’s nice to be back home, despite the fact that I’m missing my lead staff writer. I’m sure my readers will be happy to hear that my exhaustive, time-consuming analysis is back in full force.
I’ve been creating a loose production schedule for Kentucky Derby week, and it’s beginning to dawn on me that I’ll be releasing content at an unprecedented rate in the leadup to that historic event. For the busiest week of the racing year, I’ll likely be writing somewhere close to 10 articles, from analysis to historical articles to more miscellaneous things. The Woodward and Jim Dandy fall on the same Saturday as well, which makes things even busier. Can I handle it in my second week of my junior year? I’m very excited to try.
Race 1
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This is a very solid maiden race despite its Empire State origins, with three very even runners prepared to take a shot at the top prize. My top four;
7- Silver Token
His last race was very impressive visually. He entered the stretch dueling for the lead, but took a bad step and appeared to fade with a few hundred yards to go. He then recovered his footing and made a furious drive to the front again, falling short by a nose. I like to see that determination, and while it’s somewhat discouraging that this isn’t his first close runner-up finish, I do appreciate the improvement and switchup in running style. He’s an attractive option here.
4- Striking Causeway
While Silver Token usually closes but went to the lead last time, this runner switched it up as well, with less convincing results. In his first race off the layoff, he fueled the entire length of the race and fell short by a neck in a solid performance. In his second start back, he failed to get the lead and did virtually no running. The plan should be pretty clear here for Irad Ortiz and Robert Falcone, and if this runner can indeed return to the front, she may just get it to herself.
6- Advanced Strategy
In his first start off the layoff for Jimmy Jerkens, he ran very professionally down the center of the track but had to settle for fourth behind fellow runner Silver Token. While his trip appeared to be very clean, he simply lacked the zip necessary to run down the front runners despite an honest pace. He could very well improve off the layoff, in which case such a trip would result in a faster closing effort to win. He’ll also be getting lasix for the first time, which is another possible advantage.
1- The Golden Door
This first time starter for David Donk is definitely an outsider, and is running into a very tough maiden field for his first start. However, Jose Ortiz takes the mount and he has a 369 Tomlinson for the distance.
Order: 7 4 6 1
I think it’s tightly knit between the top three runners, but Silver Token was the most impressive in his last start and can win here with a more consistent performance. Striking Causeway’s early speed is usually his biggest advantage, and while it wasn’t there last time out, a return to form here could give him a very favorable position in the stretch. Advanced Strategy ran very well off the layoff and could improve here, but the trip he got didn’t provide any excuses last time out behind Silver Token, so he’ll have to run much better to win.
Race 2
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
On paper, this race comes down to two horses, and while there’s an intriguing wild card that I speak about at length, I don’t see much potential deviation here. My top four:
5- The Angry Man
His last two races have been on the grass, and they’ve been fantastic but I don’t care. His last race on dirt was actually his first start off the layoff, where he ran seven furlongs down at Belmont. He was the best of the rest that day, finishing second behind Happy Saver, who has since been touted as a sneaky Kentucky Derby entrant if the field doesn’t fill. He earned a 79 BSF that day, and while his turf form seems a little better and he’s untested at the distance, I think bettors can expect some improvement from Dermot Magner trainee on the surface switch.
2- Ashiham
This colt and fellow runner Lucky Asset ran up against the same speed bias in their last start, and while Lucky Asset ran well, this one did about as well as he could, finishing third well behind the top two. The main issue for him and many of the other runners is that there’s even less pace in this race, even under fair conditions. However, he’s now had a race at this distance and seemed comfortable, and of Todd Pletcher’s two runners, he gave John Velasquez this one. He’s a very reasonable contender.
6- Lucky Asset
He’s fine. I mean, if he wins, I won’t be surprised but I will be a little disappointed. He ran well against a speed bias at this distance last time out, but he wasn’t as fast as fellow runner Ashiham. Brian House has brought some interesting shippers to Saratoga but hasn’t won yet, and his confidence in Eric Cancel isn’t exactly deserved. Again, he’s a very sensible runner here, but he’s so blasé on paper.
4- Make Motime
Here’s an interesting one. Gabriel Goodwin has not won a race in 2020, and his gelding here has been running (and losing) regularly in statebred competition. However, there’s actually a little to like here, even as he moves into open company for the first time. The best performance of his life came back in July 2019, when he ran in a race rained off the turf at this distance, finishing fourth with a 64 BSF. After nearly a year on the shelf, he returned last month in a six furlong statebred MSW at Saratoga and ran up against a carousel race where the top three runners ran that way for the entire race. He was one of the few to improve and finished a distant fourth with a 59 BSF. That’s not nearly fast enough to win this race, which is why he’s 20-1. However, he has a 416 Tomlinson for the distance and now has a freshener to build on after a yearlong layoff. It’s impossible to know how much he’ll improve, and I think that’s the point.
Order: 5 2 6 4
I agonized over the decision between The Angry Man and Ashiham for quite a long time, because I think they’re equally qualified as the favorite in this race. I expect good runs from both of them. Lucky Asset seems to be a step below his competitors, but can fight for a minor prize. Make Motime is a wild long shot that may be able to outrun his odds.
Race 3
Skidmore Stakes (Ungraded) for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This is a crazy race. Featuring only six horses, there’s more going on here than is customary in the typical 12-horse maiden race. There’s a horse coming back from Ascot, a horse that broke his maiden with a 31 BSF, a horse that’s never run before, and two entrants coming from Colonial Downs. If that wasn’t enough, Wesley Ward is training half the field. Seriously, if readers do nothing else today, they should at least take a look at this race and marvel at what’s on display. My top four:
6- Golden Pal
Wesley Ward is one of the few American trainers with the… fortitude to regularly try the turf in Europe. After a runner-up finish in a maiden race at Gulfstream, he shipped this runner overseas to run in the Norfolk Stakes. He flew out of the gate and took a significant early lead over a field of very talented turf juveniles, and was just caught at the wire. He returns to the states in this race with a much softer field, and I really like his chances coming off a performance like the one he put on last time out.
1- Sunny Isle Beach
OK, OK, here me out. Yes, the uppity Beyer boy is picking a runner that earned a 31 BSF in his only start. However, I read a very interesting article by Andrew Beyer himself a few weeks back, and he explained that juvenile speed figures earlier this year have been inexplicably lower than in other years. He attributes this phenomenon to the pandemic and the idea that trainers weren’t preparing their younger horses as seriously when they were unable to race them. That explains why so many of the horses Sunny Isle Beach defeated that day went on to improve dramatically in subsequent starts.
With that out of the way, the only question is the surface, and I’m not all that concerned about that either. The colt has a 397 Tomlinson for the distance on turf, and besides that, Wesley Ward wouldn’t put a horse in a race like this unless he thought he had a chance. He’s a gifted trainer with two-year-olds, and it’s rare to see any of them at 20-1. I think the speed figure and surface switch may scare a lot of people off, but that first start was very impressive visually, and there might be some talent hidden away behind some bad optics on paper.
5- Fauci
This is the only runner in the race that’s been prepared traditionally for this race. He hasn’t been to Europe, and he’s not making some dramatic step up in class. He’s run in two very professional maiden races and broke through in his last start at Keeneland. He has significant competing speed and has had to duel, but he may have to learn how to rate here, as his stablemate to the outside is even faster. He’s very competent and is the only one that’s not strange to look at on paper, and that could be a good thing for consistency’s sake.
3- Kentucky Knight
Alright after a European shipper and dirt maiden claimer, Fauci gave us a break from the array of bizarre runners in this race. We now return with an even more chaotic runner: a first time starter for Amira Chicackly. In a turf race featuring three Wesley Ward trainees, the winless trainer is entering a colt with no experience whatsoever. She’s not good at anything, much less anything related to turf or two-year-olds. However, the horse has a 370 Tomlinson for the distance, and Ricardo Santana is taking the mount in his first start with Chicackly. This is one of the strangest runners I’ve seen in awhile, but at Paddy’s Picks, we regularly award creativity with $2 bets.
Order: 6 1 5 3
Wesley Ward’s got this one surrounded, and after his trip to Europe, Golden Pal is clearly the most likely winner here. However, Sunny Isle Beach is a very sneaky option that I’m not leaving out of the equation, because Ward wouldn’t enter him without a chance. Fauci is one of the only normally prepared runners in the race, and that might just be enough, while Kentucky Knight is so bizarre that I couldn’t help but include him.
Race 4
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
The top tier trainers are absent from this race, which opens the door for some of the others to try their two-year-olds. Interestingly, Kelly Breen has two runners, and I like both of them. My top four:
7- It’s Gravy
Kelly Breen is the only trainer in this race with good statistics with first time starters, and the addition of Javier Castellano is very interesting. The colt has a 362 Tomlinson for the distance and a few solid workouts, so he may just be the most prepared to run on first asking.
4- Eagle Orb
Rudy Rodriguez isn’t very good with first time starters, but this one seems promising. Irad Ortiz signs on to ride for this colt boasting several quick workouts and a 360 Tomlinson for the distance. He may need a start, but his odds suggest that Rodriguez is sending him out to win.
3- Seven Seven
Kelly Breen’s good with first time starters, but she’s even better with second time starters. In his first start, this colt was driven extremely wide on the final turn after the horse in front of him blew the turn. It effectively eliminated him from contention despite a solid move entering the stretch. He’s been training well since down at Monmouth and could improve here, but I don’t love Breen’s connection with Saez and don’t know if this is the distance this colt really wants.
8- Citizen K
Horacio DePaz has had some tough luck at Saratoga this meet, finishing second six times in 10 starts. However, he teams up with Jose Ortiz for this colt that’s been very quick in the morning but lacks a solid Tomlinson for the distance. He could easily run well here, but I prefer others.
Order: 7 4 3 8
Kelly Breen is one of the only trainers in the race that really sends her firsters out to win, which gives It’s Gravy a training edge. Eagle Orb seems the most promising, however, and Irad Ortiz’s work with Rudy Rodriguez is very consistent. Citizen K is very dangerous with Jose Ortiz aboard, but Horacio DePaz has had some tough luck at Saratoga and doesn’t always send his runners out to win on first asking.
Race 5
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
9- My Man Flintstone
His only turf race was a disaster in which he was pulled up early. However, he’s an early speed horse that didn’t get the lead that day, and he clearly took a bad step that was out of his control. His two subsequent starts were solid efforts on dirt, and Ken McPeek switches him back to the grass for this start. He has a 405 Tomlinson on the turf at this distance and will likely get the lead to himself up front.
7- Standup
He ran very well last time out with a sub-optimal trip to defeat fellow runner Unprecedented. Based on that performance, he’s the most qualified runner here, but he jut doesn’t strike me as a winner. He ran into an extremely fast pace last time, and despite the trouble he encountered, I feel like he should have run a little better than third. I don’t think he’ll be an opening quarter of 21 and ⅖ seconds this time around, and I’ll take a small chance against him.
4- Propensity
I liked this runner in his last start, and he did exactly what he was supposed to do, taking the lead at the top of the stretch and holding fellow runner Knockout Punch well out of reach to break his maiden. It was a good performance, and John Velasquez had a choice and decided to take this mount for Bill Mott. This is a tougher spot, however, and I’d like to see him get a start against winners first.
5- Unprecedented
He got a slightly better trip last time out, but he ended up being just as fast as fellow runner Standup in a fourth place finish. However, many of the pace-related issues that Standup has here may hurt this runner as well. In addition, it’s concerning to see John Velasquez leave to ride another runner, even if Irad Ortiz is an excellent replacement.
Order: 7 9 4 5
My Man Flintstone is the new contender in a race that I believe needs a shakeup. I think his early speed will be key here. I don’t love Standup, but he is the most qualified runner based on his recent speed figures. However, he had a lightning fast pace to run into last time out and had to settle for third. Meanwhile, I think Unprecedented is better than Propensity, but John Velasquez ended up on the latter runner. This is definitely a weird race.
Race 6
$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a quality allowance race featuring some immensely talented fillies. Many of them have already been in stakes competitions and are bound to return to them. My top four:
6- Princesa Caroline
Her performances at two are on par with her competitors’ performances at three. That’s an absurd advantage for Chad Brown to have in this filly’s three-year-old debut. He doesn’t have to do much with her, and any improvement at all in 2020 would be more than enough to win here.
2- Eye of a Soldier
I really liked this filly last time out, but had reservations that Bill Mott would be patient with her. She very nearly proved me wrong in a runner-up finish to talented filly Witez. She has a tough opponent here, but I expect this start to be even better than the last.
9- Passion Factor
In her first start off the layoff, she performed competently in the G2 Appalachian to finish fifth in a deep field. This isn’t actually a much softer spot, but it is technically class relief, and she can always improve on the return race.
1- Lashara (GB)
After a solid performance in an allowance at Belmont back in June, she seemed to take a step back in the G2 Lake Placid. However, she was in deeper waters that day and finds a slightly softer spot in this contest. She stands a solid chance of rounding back into form.
Order: 6 2 9 1
Princesa Caroline ran races at two that would still hold up here, and in her 2020 debut, I expect improvement. I loved Eye of a Soldier last time out but was concerned that she would need a race. She almost won, which makes her prospects here very encouraging. Passion Factor ran well in deeper waters last time out and could improve in her second start of the year, while Lashara seems to be a step below these runners at this point in time.
Race 7
$40,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
I’m not crazy about this race, but I’m not crazy about the favorite either, so it’s a mixed bag. I have a feeling that 10 runnings of this race would yield 10 different results, which is always a little annoying for a handicapper. My top four:
4- I’ll Take the Cake
After a stretch of moderate success at allowance levels at various tracks, this filly return to racing at Gulfstream last month and had a rough time. However, I’m somewhat encouraged by Saffie Joseph’s decision to ship her up to Saratoga anyway. She has some excellent back form that makes her a good fit in this field, and for her second start off the layoff, she’s cutting back in distance and getting Tyler Gaffalione as a jockey. I think she improves here.
5- Flat Awesome Jenny
Her last start in the G2 Molly Pitcher was clearly a bit beyond her, which explains why Kelly Breen is dropping her in class here. Based on her other performances, she fits well here, but I’m not entirely sold on the idea that this is her preferred distance. She’s improved on two occasions when stretching out to a route, which makes me think that six furlongs is a little short. Still, she’s run very well in spots like this in the past, so I’m not counting her out.
3- Jump for Joy
Her last few performances have simply been a step above these runners. As a result, the goal won’t be to improve but maintain. That’s actually a little questionable based on her last workout. Mertkan Kantarmaci has another runner very similar to this one last week, as Bertranda had already won at the optional claiming condition and simply had to remain consistent to win. After a very poor workout, she seemed to take a serious step back. I fear that this runner may be facing a similar fate based on that abysmal 41 second workout earlier this month.
7- Dovey Lovey
She’s definitely geared for six furlongs, which could explain her poor start at a mile off the layoff. The connections are a little weak and her best speed figures are still on the fringe here, but in her second start off the layoff, she can build on some of the positive performances she had in sprints earlier this year.
Order: 3 5 4 7
I’ll Take the Cake took a step back in form off the layoff and takes an appropriate drop in class here. I don’t love her chances of improving here, but it’s certainly a possibility at a distance she’s comfortable with. Flat Awesome Jenny was obviously in deep waters last time out and finds an appropriate spot here, but I’m not sure if a sprint is the right distance. Jump for Joy seems to be in the best recent form of these runners, and that makes her the most likely option by default. However, I have my doubts, and I’ll be going against her. Dovey Lovey is a natural sprinter that is getting back to her preferred going after a rough start at a mile off the layoff.
Race 8
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This race features several runners coming off long layoffs, and while I usually go against these, I happen to like three such horses in this contest. That makes me vulnerable in the case that none of them fire, but I believe my top choice should be ready, at the very least:
4- Freewheeler
I’ve liked this colt but he’s been scratched from those races and hasn’t raced since two. I see this scratches as a good sign, as it demonstrates patience from Todd Pletcher before he launches this runner’s three-year-old career. He ran with Breeders’ Cup quality turf juveniles last year and Pletcher has been very successful with runners improving from two to three off layoffs. He’s my top selection here, but I fear he’ll be the pick for many others as well.
1- Veterans Beach
While several runners in this race will make their three-year-old debuts, this gelding will be making his first start at four. That’s a somewhat significant advantage because he’s already competed at this level at a period of lesser development. Christophe Clement has cooled off somewhat in recent weeks at Saratoga, but he still knows how to prepare horses after time off. He can very well make some noise here.
8- Noble Emotion
This Jonathan Thomas runner probably needs a start, but I’m including him anyway. The gelding clearly exceeded his trainer’s expectations as a two-year-old in statebred competition, and while his subsequent start in an open company stakes race was a poor one, I sense that it wasn’t a result of his ability. He’ll make his first start of the year in this race, and while it’s odd to see Thomas working with Luis Saez, I think this gelding will take the first steps toward a solid campaign here.
9- Crack Shot
He’s been setting some wicked paces recently, but this colt hasn’t yet managed to wire a field. Instead, he’s been setting up very useful scenarios for closers. Jose Ortiz is out of the picture, but I may just prefer Junior Alvarado in this sort of wiring attempt anyway. I don’t think he’s quite good enough, but it’s important to identify him as the pace presence.
Order: 4 1 8 9
Freewheeler and Noble Emotion are both making their three-year-old debuts, while Veterans Beach is making his first start at four. That makes them all vulnerable coming off long layoffs, but I think they have more upside than their more recently experienced counterparts.
Race 9
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
6- Gaelic Gold
In her first race off the layoff, this filly had to close into very slow fractions but did it well, finishing third behind fellow runner Kept Waiting. Christophe Clement is very successful with runners entering their second start off a layoff and Joel Rosario returns to ride. With any pace at all in this race, I expect this runner to improve.
7- Kept Waiting
In her first start for new trainer Michael Miceli, this filly nearly pulled off the victory on the front end but had to settle for second at the wire. She had a very favorable pace scenario that day, and while the going shouldn’t be too difficult here, it’s obviously difficult to foresee a 24-second opening quarter again. I don’t expect her to perform poorly, but I expect Gaelic Gold to improve and beat her.
8- Kilkea
She finished second at this level back in June with a 67 BSF, which makes her a contender here. New trainer Mark Hennig is also somewhat successful with new acquisitions. However, he’s not good at all with runners coming off layoffs, and he’s a little too unfamiliar with jockey Tyler Gaffalione to inspire confidence. She can still run well here, but perhaps not as well as the top two.
3- Micromillion
She really seems to like finishing second, and has had several opportunities to win but has failed to do so. To make matters worse, this is a pretty tough field for this level, so she may have squandered one opportunity too many.