Saratoga Analysis: Friday, August 14, 2020

Because I’m writing Paddy’s Picks remotely on this beautiful Friday morning, the analysis is a little lighter than I would normally like it to be. However, while the race intros and conclusions have been omitted to save time and space, the horse-by-house outlooks are being left untouched, as I think they provide more than enough information in a bind. Let’s take a look at the card.

Race 1 

$20,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

7- Ain’t None Lucky

Her last start indicates that a route distance is certainly out of the question, but I’m more encouraged by this runner if she’s trying sprints again. Lacey Gaudet cuts her back, ships her to Saratoga, and drops her in class here, which could show aggression on her part. In two starts as a three-year-old, I don’t believe she’s been given the opportunity to show her best yet, so I have to go back to her form at two. In three starts in dirt sprints, two of them at Saratoga, she ran very well, and I can easily see her replicating or maybe even improving on those performances against the likes of British Idiom and Miss Marissa.

5- Flashing Red

I’m not sure if this filly can succeed at sprint distances, but I am fairly confident that her 41 BSF on a sloppy track last time out isn’t indicative of her current ability. I’d venture to say her two previous performances in the 60s are more helpful, and those figures are just about the best in this field. Therefore, the only remaining question will come down to the distance.

1- Spanish Peaks

She’s the 2-1 favorite on the morning line, but I just don’t see it. Brad Cox is obviously a talented shipping trainer running up against some small timers here, but what does it say about this filly that he had her running at Indiana Grand? In two dirt sprints in her three-race career she’s run well but slowly according to BSFs. I feel pretty secure betting against her here.

4- Tetrahydro

There are a lot of questions regarding this filly, but I think the longer distance was her undoing last time out, which is nice considering that she’s shortening up again here. I don’t know what she’ll do if she encounters her first fast track of the year, which makes her tough to evaluate against the other runners. Her late running style could also be a liability based on the likely pace scenario here, or lack thereof.

Order: 7 5 1 4

 

Race 2

$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

6- Notorious R B G

Christophe Clement knew what he was doing when he entered this filly in an ungraded stakes off the layoff last time out. At 32-1, she outran her odds to finish fourth in a tough race. This is a softer field this time around, and Joel Rosario finally signs on the ride. In her second start off the layoff, I believe this is a supreme opportunity for her.

5- Tiple (Ire)

At 14-1 odds last time out, this filly surprised talented runner Keota in an upset victory. It was a vast improvement over her recent form, but more importantly, it qualifies her for this start. Philip Serpe isn’t anything special as a trainer, but in this type of race, the trainer doesn’t matter as much as in other races. When she’s on, she’s very tough, and I don’t see why she can’t give another good account here.

3- Stop War

She’s currently listed as the close second choice on the morning line, but I don’t get it. My issue is that she didn’t prove to be better than fellow runner Wicked Amber last time out, and she’s 15-1 here. In addition, Irad Ortiz is an excellent jock but not often Clement’s first choice. I think she’s being overvalued, although her tactical running style is a big advantage.

8- Henni Penny

I’m not really in love with this runner, as a long shot or otherwise, because she doesn’t seem fast enough and will have to improve. However, she’s run hard in the past and appears to be honest, and her last start was mired by a speed bias. I think she’s an interesting option to consider underneath.

Order: 6 5 3 8

 

Race 3

$14,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

This isn’t a very enticing race to me. My top four:

7- Mosienko

I really liked her last start for Michelle Nevin, and I’m even more encouraged by the claim made by Robert Falcone. She seems to be versatile between the dirt and turf, and her dirt start seemed very professional. I don’t see why she can’t make it two in a row here.

3- Hetty G.

I don’t know what happened two starts back, but it’s not the first time she’s failed to show up for very little reason. Nevertheless, I think she has the connections (Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz) and speed necessary to win here.

6- Desbordes

I really don’t like the fact that both of this filly’s wins came on the front end. However, she may get it here, which puts her in a favorable position. George Weaver and Manny Franco have both struggled at this meet though, and trusting them to have this horse ready to win when the gates open here is a stretch.

4- Makin’ Out

This mare is a little too experienced for a level like this, but it’s the lowest she’s even been and she seems to have some impressive performances in the past that would win here easily. That being said, I have to wonder how interested she is at this point in her career.

Order: 7 3 6 4

 

Race 4

Perfect Sting Stakes (Ungraded) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

4- Altea (Fr)

This mare ran extremely well in last month’s G1 Jenny Wiley, and in another stretch stampede, she has the clear advantage this time around. I’m not sure if that performance was a flash in the pan or the new status quo, but Chad Brown rarely has flukes in this game. She’s a clear top pick.

7- Secret Message

She was right there with fellow runner Altea in the G1 Jenny Wiley, but came up a little flat in the very late stages. It was one of the fastest performances of her career, but I have to wonder if she was being dragged along by faster runners in the race. Still, it was a great run that sets her up very well here for Graham Motion.

1- Cafe Americano

She’ll have to take a step forward from three to four, but Chad Brown has pulled off much tougher assignments in the past. Outside of a rough start in the Belmont Oaks, she was brilliant last year in multiple impressive performances. She’ll need to improve to win off the layoff, and she may need a start, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this runner took care of business on first asking at four.

5- Feel Glorious (GB)

It’s usually a wide open field when I think that all four of my selections have a chance to win. This filly has been contending at this level for over a year now and never seems to be out of the picture. She may not be as quick as some others in here right now, but that hasn’t stopped her in the past for Christophe Clement. She should be considered a player here.

Order: 4 7 1 5

 

Race 5

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

7- Ahead of Plan

I don’t like the manner in which Chad Brown has handled this runner, though I’m not sure it was entirely his fault. The gelding has only managed to make four starts since his two-year-old season in 2018, and has only run on the turf once. He showed that he could handle it in a tough trip, but his last start on dirt this past July is highly questionable for its poor quality. However, he’s returning to the turf, and Brown is excellent with every angle he has going here to get this unlucky animal across the line.

5- Its a Wrap

This gelding is very similar to Ahead of Plan in that they’ve both made four lifetime starts and originally started on dirt. However, there seems to be a much clearer plan with this runner that is sure to attract some more of the bettors’ attention, and I wouldn’t be too surprised myself if she won. However, it’s not everyday that I can get Chad Brown at a price over Michelle Nevin, so I think I’ll be playing the board here.

9- Sir Chubby

On speed figures, this runner fits well in this race as a solid contender. However, I usually side with lightly raced runners in these kinds of races, and this Thomas Bush trainee is pushing it. However, he’s fought for a minor prize in the past and I can see him doing so here as well.

1- Officer Country

I’m not quite sure what it is, but I think the presence of Joel Rosario on this deep outsider gives him another element as a long shot. He hasn’t been terrible out of town at both turf routes and sprints, so a cutback isn’t the worst thing. In addition, the speed figures he’s earned aren’t optimal, but they’re not totally out of place in this spot either. I’m not entirely sure, but I don’t want to toss this runner immediately, which is something I tend to with most Eppler trainees.

Order: 7 5 9 1

 

Race 6

$20,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs

6- Life in Shambles

I’m not sure that he’s been up against much competition down at Gulfstream this summer, but I don’t think that’s a serious knock against him. He transferred well from Aqueduct to Florida, and now enters Linda Rice’s barn for the Saratoga meet. Irad Ortiz is an excellent addition in the saddle, and based on his speed figures and experience at this distance, I expect good things here.

5- Shamrocked

Usually, I would appreciate this runner’s early speed, but it may be more of a liability here. His two victories recent victories have come on the front end, which isn’t impossible for him here but will require effort. However, he has shown a little stalking ability in the past, so it’s not a total loss. His speed figures are competitive and Ray Handal is an excellent trainer, but the most attractive facet for this runner is the massive class drop that’s probably warranted given his recent struggles. The only remaining issue is the layoff, but I don’t think the effect of that time off will affect this runner as strongly. 

4- Coltandmississippi

This gelding has been around for a long time, and when he wins, he does so in strange ways. He’s never the most attractive option in the field, but when he wins, I often look back at the paper and say, “Yeah, that wasn’t that hard.” He’s bounced around a lot of barns lately, and I don’t love that he ended up with Dominick Schettino, but that shouldn’t necessarily affect his ability. It is interesting, however, that his last victory came in his last start for former trainer Jason Servis.

1- Eye Luv Lulu
1A- Clench

Well, Eye Luv Lulu has been scratched in five straight appearances or something, so I’ll just include him as part of the entry without really considering him, because I really doubt he’ll ever run again at this rate. We move on to Clench, who outran his odds last time in a $40,000 claiming race against more talented runners like Pete’s Play Call and Creative Style. It wasn’t a performance that could have won that race, but its good enough to win here. He had a zippy workout up here before his last start but hasn’t recorded one since, which could indicate that he won’t be as sharp here. However, that’s a bit of a reach, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if he ran well again in this softer field.

Order: 6 5 4 1/1A

 

Race 7

$35,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

4- Tenure

In this gelding’s first start of 2020, he ran one of the best races of his career, sitting a rare rafting trip and falling short by a nose at the wire ahead of fellow runners Bourbon Currency and Variant Perception. Based on that start, it really seems like things are coming together for him. After a very quick workout at Belmont earlier this month, he’ll make his second start off the break here, which should lead to some natural improvement. He also really seemed to enjoy the sprint distance at Saratoga last year, where he thrived in two starts as well as a bother short sprint at Monmouth. The only knock here is the fact that John Toscano claimed him off of Christophe Clement in his last start, and that shouldn’t be understated. However, the recent workout is an encouraging sign that he’s in condition, and I don’t know how Toscano could possibly ruin this horse in a month.

3- Fig Jelly

It’s imperative that handicappers bet against this favorite. He’s the best horse in the field and he’s run several races that would win here by daylight, but he has one of the worst cases of “seconditis” I’ve ever seen. In 25 starts, he’s finished second in 12 of them and first in just two. He’s run at this distance 13 times and has never won, but he has finished second 10 times. What’s really crazy is that the conditions and venue of the race don’t seem to matter; he’s run at eight different tracks in his last 12 starts and he still can’t find a spot to cash in. Again, he’s more than talented enough to win here, but there’s absolutely no chance that I can consider him a tough favorite. He’s the type of runner someone would make up in a hypothetical scenario as a “vulnerable short price.”

8- Bourbon Currency

This gelding represents an interesting handicapping conundrum, because I’m betting on improvement coming off a negative result. I think there’s a chance that he could have won last time out, but he couldn’t find room inside and checked badly late. It took away his chances in that start, and I’m sure that he’ll be undervalued as a result. However, I’m also not sure if he’s capable of winning here despite the strong trip handicapping angle. He’s 0-for-5 at the distance and doesn’t win as often as he should. While I think there’s great logic indicating improvement, I’m not sure he’s well prepared for this start.

7- Variant Perception

In his second start off the layoff, this gelding took a small step forward and finished well for third behind fellow runner Tenure. However, I think that race set up best for him and I don’t think he took full advantage of it. In addition, I’m not sure if the distance is right based on this runner’s experience going longer. He can run well here, but I’ll be looking elsewhere for the top spot.

Order: 4 3 8 7

 

Race 8

$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

4- Tale of the Union

I think Bob Baffert has one runner stationed in New York right now, and it’s this runner. There may be a few others, but I’ve yet to see them on the track. This colt’s last race was phenomenal and represented a solid bounce back start after a bad loss against fellow runner Thorny Tale in the slop two back. All he has to do is replicate the 88 BSF he earned last time, and it would be more than enough to win here. He’s an extremely sensible pick.

5- Leaky Cup

This gelding hasn’t won a start in awhile, but he’s also run well in several consecutive starts, which makes him difficult to toss. While many of his competitors have tailed off or are inconsistent, he’s been very level over the past few months. I think he’s very qualified here to fight for a minor prize.

2- Thorny Tale

This gelding defeated fellow runner Tale of the Union two starts back, but I strongly suspect that that result came about as a result of the sloppy track that day. However, he still appears to be in good condition for George Weaver and should manage to get somewhere close to show money in this contest.

7- Kazmania

He’s been trading losses back and forth with Leaky Cup for some time now, and if we’re following the pattern, he should get the upper hand here. That’s entirely possible, but I think he’s one of three runners that will have to improve to win here.

Order: 4 5 2 7

 

Race 9

$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 3/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

1- Voting Control
1A- Value Engineering

The only thing worse than one Klaravich runner in a race is two Klaravich runners in a race. Value Engineering doesn’t appear as strong as his entry mate, but he’s still a very potent runner that could take this race for Chad Brown. His runner-up finish at this level last time out was very solid and makes him a contender in his own right. However, the reason this entry will get serious consideration from bettors is because of Voting Control. One the best turf juveniles in the country in 2018, he hasn’t had the opportunity to race much since. He made his second comeback attempt last start in his four-year-old debut, in which he came up a little flat but still finished second at this level at Churchill. That performance wouldn’t win here, but an improved second start off the layoff could certainly be enough, and this runner’s back class and elite connections reinforce the idea that he’ll be ready here.

8- Current

I originally had this runner on top but changed my mind as I was writing my analysis. He’s had some excellent performances in the recent past that weren’t good enough to win big stakes races, but are definitely good enough to win here. That being said, he hasn’t won a race since 2018 despite having ample opportunity to do so on several occasions. Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz are an elite combination that I’m not questioning, but I do wonder if he’s become a little too used to following the leaders.

4- Mr. Alec

I wasn’t sure about this runner last time out, and he sure quieted me down, running incredibly well to win in a wire-to-wire performance with a 95 BSF. It was a great start for the gelding, but based on the circumstances, I think it represents his best possible effort. There’s a little more pace in this race as well as a tougher field, so while I’m not counting him out entirely, I do think there are better options.

2- Argonne

He certainly went on a tear last year at about this time, and that stretch culminated in a bad loss in the G2 Bowling Green. He seems to be rounding into condition in his second start off the layoff here, and Jimmy Bond can be trusted at Saratoga right now. I just think there are even better runners in this race, despite his qualifications. I expect him to compete for a minor prize, and I think he’ll do it well.

Order: 1/1A 8 4 2

 

Race 10

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf

10- Unicorn Sally

Two starts back, this filly ran an excellent fourth behind Silky Blue and Fresco at the maiden special weight level. Her speed figures are competitive here and the class drop is also a solid angle. Javier Castellano doesn’t often work with John Kimmel, which could be a good sign for this runner.

4- Courted

She’s been a bit of a mixed bag lately on the front end, holding well two starts back and folding badly in her most recent appearance. Jorge Abreu is doing well at this meet though, and the big angle on his runner here is the jockey upgrade from Eric Cancel to Joel Rosario. I think there’s a good chance he has more staying power at a slightly shorter distance this time around.

9- Running on Entry

Her first start off a very long layoff wasn’t all that fruitful at the maiden special weight level, but Jimmy Toner has found her a good landing spot here. She’s entering her second start off the bench, which is always an advantage, and while Manny Franco isn’t returning to ride, Tyler Gaffalione is a very competent replacement. I’m intrigued by this runner.

8- Lucky Latkes

In two starts at this level, this filly has run creditably but has not yet been able to break through for Christophe Clement. Manny Franco returns to ride while Joel Rosario goes elsewhere, but there’s little reason to suspect she won’t be able to hold her own again here.

Order: 10 4 9 8