Saratoga Analysis: Sunday, August 23, 2020

I’m actually somewhat charmed by this Sunday card at Saratoga. There’s something to look at in every race, even those that I would usually detest. The G1 Diana later in the day only adds to the fun.

Who wants to talk about Tiz the Law? I do. Is there anyone out there that thinks that Maximum Security’s performance in the Pacific Classic was better than the Law’s Travers win? If so, please let me know. I’ll obviously wait for the Beyer, but Max seemed really comfortable on the lead through some glacial fractions. I also don’t think Midcourt and Sharp Samurai are on the same level as Tom’s d’Etat and Improbable. 

It was obviously a professional performance from the 19th place finisher in last year’s Kentucky Derby, but I highly doubt that it was a 109. A lot of people are touting Maximum Security as the best horse in the country, but I’m not even sure he’s the best in his division, and I’m even less sure he’s better than this year’s likeliest Kentucky Derby winner. I’ve never been so excited for autumn.

Note: First eight are up, last one is coming.

Race 1

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

It’s a small maiden field, but there appears to be a lot of promise on paper. My top four:

6- Black Sand (GB)

Remember that I know next to nothing about breeding (or cooking, driving, doing laundry, etc.), but I tend to like European pedigrees in these juvenile turf races. Chad Brown is one of the few effective trainers debuting his horses in routes, and Irad Ortiz is taking the mount.

1- Community Adjusted

Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario have been the connection of the summer here at Saratoga, and they connect here on what appears to be a live firster. She’s been training well and has a 372 Tomlinson for the distance, which makes her a viable option here.

5- Uptown Flirt

This is the only filly in the race with experience, as she raced here last month and finished third at this distance. That’s a very big deal, because Bill Mott rarely sends his first time starters out to win, so they usually improve in their second starts. She’s not exiting the most compelling race, but it’s the fact that she ran at all that makes her appealing. She could build on that performance here.

3- Brynbella

Todd Pletcher isn’t quite as good in these sorts of races as his two elite counterparts, and his filly’s 328 Tomlinson for the distance doesn’t help. However, he does recruit Jose Ortiz to ride.

Order: 6 1 5 3

I’ll take the Brown runner on top, but from there I’m a little torn. I like Uptown Flirt with a race under her belt, but Community Adjusted seems like a potent runner for Clement. Brynbella seems like the type that I would demonstrate patience with.

 

Race 2

$32,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

I really enjoyed handicapping this race, but it’s wide open, which makes my opinion one of many that could pay here. Still, if every race was like this one, this job would be even better than it is already. My top four:

2- Victory Boulevard

Alright, the biggest knock on this runner is that Irad Ortiz is being replaced by Eric Cancel. I don’t believe I’ve ever bet on a horse suffering such a severe jockey downgrade. However, Michael Maker has won two of eight starts with Cancel, and even more surprisingly, Cancel has ridden this gelding three times and was aboard for all three of his career victories. With that in mind, I’m hesitantly fine with the rider switch, especially since Ortiz didn’t take another mount in the race. Sometimes a jockey and horse just get along.

Moving past that, I really liked this horse last time, and I like him again here. He ran very well at Churchill Downs back in May, benefitting from a favorable pace scenario to finish fifth behind top three-year-olds like Art Collector and Wrecking Crew. In his first start back, Maker shipped him to Saratoga and I picked him on top, but he encountered a pace scenario geared heavily toward speed and couldn’t make up much ground. He’s won in two of three starts at this distance, there appears to be a little more pace up front here, and he’s entering his second start off the layoff. I think he’s an excellent value play here at 6-1 on the morning line. Maker better not be messing around with those blinkers, because everything else about the horse makes sense.

3- Wicksters Dream

I felt like a real smarty when I correctly picked this runner on top off the layoff. Kelly Breen had him ready to go in his three-year-old debut and he delivered with an 85 BSF at 5-1. He was claimed by Jeremiah Englehart that day, which hurts him here, as his new trainer is 0-for-14 with new Claiming acquisitions. His work tab has been a little spotty as well since his last start. However, that’s not enough to predict a relapse in form, so this colt will be very dangerous assuming he can deliver again in this tougher field.

6- Uncork the Bottle

This is the type of scenario where I don’t love the horse but really like the connections. However, at two, this colt did actually have some solid dirt form, and if he truly is being pointed to this surface, then he improve on those 2019 performances. He has the right trainer to do it, as Saffie Joseph wins 31% of the time when switching from grass to dirt. He’s had a very reasonable Saratoga meet, but his only win has come with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. I think this is a sneaky option, but an interesting one.

4- Mission Wrapitup

One of my biggest handicapping weaknesses is that I sometimes toss a reasonable horse because they bore me on paper. This leads me to bet sneakier options occasionally in races where there are several more solid contenders. Mission Wrapitup and Scoring could very well win this race and make me look foolish, but I’ve tossed Scoring and put this colt fourth. Chad Brown has been entering him in some very competitive NY-bred races recently but moves him into open company fr this start. He’s been earning figures that are competitive here and Javier Castellano returns to ride. He’s a very sensible pick, but I’m simply not wowed. It’s not calling out to me. No flash or pizzazz. More of a “take your medicine” pick.

Order: 2 3 6 4

I really liked Victory Boulevard and Wicksters Dream in their last starts, and the latter came through and the former didn’t. However, I really think that Maker has been preparing his horse well, and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through. Uncork the Bottle is another intriguing pick switching surfaces for Saffie Joseph, and if he can build on some of his starts sprinting at two, he’ll be very dangerous here. By tossing Mission Wrapitup and Scoring, I’m definitely making a statement, but I really do think the creative options are more interesting than the proven runners here.

 

Race 3

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

This is the second small juvenile fillies field of the day, but again, it seems like a talented bunch. My top four:

3- American West

Of Brown’s two first time starters, this is the more appealing one to me. This $925,000 filly by Curlin has been training fairly well and has a 385 Tomlinson for the distance. Irad Ortiz is Brown’s preferred rider, and it just seems like she’s a little sharper on paper than her stablemate and the rest of the field.

5- Fifth Risk

Todd Pletcher’s filly is a deserving favorite here based on an excellent workout she put in on August 9. John Velasquez is an odd jockey choice however, and the filly only has a 323 Tomlinson for the distance. Is it possible that she needs a start before stretching out?

6- Jade Empress

Bill Mott doesn’t always send his firsters out to win, but sometimes they’re talented enough to win anyway. I tend to look for sharp workouts to figure this out, and this filly has several to go along with a 364 Tomlinson for the distance. Jose Ortiz takes the mount, and I’m intrigued.

1- Suspended Campaign

I think I’m one shaky ground putting this filly fourth, but I don’t think I’m completely off base. I prefer Chad Brown’s other runner in this race, and he seems to as well, because Irad Ortiz is clearly his preferred jockey now over Javier Castellano. The filly hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire in the morning, and she only has a 280 Tomlinson for the distance. If Brown’s name wasn’t attached to her, she’d likely be 8-1 here.

Order: 3 5 6 1

American West seems like the more hopeful of the two Brown runners, but there’s a lot more to like here that just the one filly. Fifth Risk is extremely dangerous based on some excellent recent workouts, while Jade Empress seems like the type of Mott runner that responds on first asking. 

 

Race 4

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

This race is awful in every sense of the word. Beyond a vaguely interesting trip handicapping exercise between the top three runners, this was a barren wasteland that I got through as quickly as possible. My top four:

2- No Salt

In his last start, he finished second by three lengths at this level, earning a 65 BSF ahead of fellow runners False Alarm and Supply Sider. All he has to do is finish the job here, because he’ll be getting a nearly identical pace setup and equally terrible field.

7- False Alarm

This gelding seemed to sabotage himself last time out in a poor performance behind fellow runner No Salt. He was running alongside that runner entering the backstretch but then began behaving bizarrely, tossing his head, steadying several times, and giving away his position in the process. He made another run entering the turn, but by then, No Salt had already taken the two path which forced him four wide. He understandably had nothing left in the stretch. If he runs soundly, as he did two starts back, I suppose he could compete with No Salt. In Amira Chicackly’s defense, her problem so far at Saratoga has had nothing to do with the soundness of her horses. The problem has been that they’re all painfully slow.

4- Supply Sider

This gelding is a deep closer, and in his last start, he encountered glacial fractions and had no chance in a fifth place effort behind No Salt. That would technically give him value in future starts, but the bad news is that there’s no pace in this race either. He better pick it up if he wants any chance.

6- Broadway Joe

Yeah, I don’t see it either. I needed a fourth.

Order: 2 7 4 6

No Salt is the clear top choice, but if a bettor felt like taking a shot against him, I’d endorse False Alarm as a runner with some upside. From there, things get pretty ugly.

 

Race 5

$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt

I don’t really have a feel for this race, but I get the sense that there may be a little value here. My top four:

2- Unrelenting Force

I’m reaching a little here, but at least there’s an angle. At six furlongs, this gelding set some very quick opening fractions but wired the field all the same, demonstrating superiority over weak maidens. Ray Handal isn’t very good at stretching horses out, but he is very good with runners in their second start off layoffs. In addition, Joel Rosario is a significant jockey upgrade, especially with Handal, who’s won with him in four of eight starts at Saratoga. He’s my hesitant first choice here.

7- Cold Hard Cash

I don’t like the field he defeated in her last start off the turf, nor am I fond with the easy manner in which he won. However, the 71 BSF he earned that day makes him a qualified runner here, and Jose Ortiz returns to ride. Linda Rice is successful with horses stretching out in distance, and it’s clear that this gelding is a router anyway. He’s a contender here, but I’m not crazy about him.

6- Too Early

This runner is remarkably similar to fellow runner Cold Hard Cash, as he’s trained by Linda Rice and broke his maiden off the layoff in a race rained off the turf on July 17. There’s actually an angle that this could be the better runner of the two because Rice kept him in maiden special weight competition and dropped her other runner into a maiden claiming race. However, he appeared to have an easier going in that five-horse field but only earned a 65 BSF. He can always improve in his second start off the break, but I prefer others.

5- Six Percent

This is the only runner in my top four that’s run against winners, but he’s been losing at this level since last August. This is a weaker statebred allowance than most, however, and he’s run well in enough in the past to win here. Jimmy Jerkens has had better meets though, and outside of his Travers Stakes victory, Manny Franco has had a rough time as well. It seems like the horse will have to improve on his own.

Order: 2 7 6 5

Of the recent maiden winners, I most prefer Unrelenting Force stretching out to a route, as I consider his victory the most impressive. Cold Hard Cash and Too Early have extremely similar backgrounds entering this race, and I’m not crazy about either one of them in this weak field. Six Percent will have to take a step forward, but I don’t see a path for him to do so.

 

Race 6

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

There’s a very clear favorite in this one, and not too much on paper beyond her. My top four:

1- Towering Gaze

This is the second obvious favorite of the day, but unlike No Salt in the fourth, this runner has several speed figures that are far superior to her competition. She hasn’t quite managed to break through at the maiden special weight level and takes a drop here for David Donk and Jose Ortiz. I don’t see anything to get in her way.

5- Silent Empress

This filly only has one start to her name, and that’s an advantage in a race like this. She was well beaten by fellow runner High School Crush last time out, but she could have had a better trip in her debut. Christophe Clement has very efficient with his runners this meet, and she could easily improve second time out.

2- High School Crush

Her speed figures have been consistent this year, but they appear to be a step below the heavy favorite. She’s been trying to break her maiden for nine starts now, and she’s been knocking on the door without sealing the deal. I think this is another such start.

6- Mia Bea Star

I took a flyer on this runner in her dirt debut last time out, and I feel foolish now that she’s back on the turf. David Donk has both Ortiz brothers riding his horses here, and Irad is retuning to ride this outsider, having taken the mount in her very first start. She can compete here in maiden claiming competition, but I’m not sure she can handle the favorite either.

Order: 1 5 2 6

Towering Gaze appears much the best here, but there are a few that could possibly take small steps forward over their personal best performances. I don’t believe any of them can beat the favorite, however.

 

Race 7

$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

5- Home Run Maker

He hasn’t won a race since January 2019, but he hasn’t been a serious contender in a race since about that same time. His only two starts this year came in races well beyond his ability, and Jeremiah Englehart finally finds him a softer spot here at Saratoga. Irad Ortiz is an excellent addition in the saddle, and I think he’ll be ready to go in his first start off the layoff.

7- Mount Travers

Unlike Home Run Maker, this colt has been a serious contender in several races since his last victory in December 2018. He hasn’t managed to deliver despite remaining competitive, and that’s a serious knock against him. However, he’s run fast enough to win here on several occasions, and Jose Ortiz continues to ride for Linda Rice.

1- Big Engine

In his first race off the layoff, this horse took a big step up forward to win in statebred company with a 91 BSF. That makes him very dangerous here, even as Linda Rice steps him up in class. This is a soft field to go up against, and he could very well maintain his form in his second start off the layoff.

6- Pete’s Play Call

The last time this seven-year-old competed at this level, he finished fourth to C Z Rocket Down at Churchill. There’s no horse nearly as talented as that one here, and the gelding is back on his home track. He really seems to take well to the Saratoga track, which makes a step up in class possible. His running style will help him and Luis Saez is an interesting addition, but that plays into the big knock on him. John Toscano claimed him off of Michael Maker in his last start, and that’s a serious downgrade that may not do him any favors.

Order: 5 7 1 6

Home Run Maker and Mount Travers are both a little starved for victories as of late, but I think the former is a victim of circumstance. He’s finding a softer spot here, and I think he’ll take full advantage. Big Engine and Pete’s Play Call are taking a step up in class here, and while they’re finding softer footing than they normally would at this level, I still think they’re a tad overmatched.

 

Race 8

Diana Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Inner Turf

3- Rushing Fall

While Chad Brown’s other superhorse in this race has taken a step back recently, this mare hasn’t lost a step, rattling off two straight graded stakes victories to begin 2020. In this small field, I think her early speed will benefit her, as she’ll manage to set a pace that the closers may have trouble closing into. Her speed figures are a step above, and it seems like she’ll keep rolling here.

4- Starship Jubilee

This mare has been brilliant for a long time now, and has not finished outside the money in nearly two years. She showed up in her first start off the layoff to take down fellow runners Call Me Love and big favorite Sistercharlie last time out. Now, she’ll be entering this race with a recent start under her belt, and she’ll be racing at an excellent distance for her. I’m not sure she can catch Rushing Fall, but I think she’ll give it her best shot.

1- Call Me Love (GB)

This filly hasn’t yet won in the U.S., but it hasn’t been for lack of effort. Outside of a subpar start at a longer distance, she’s been very competitive against many of the competitors she’ll be facing here. As a result, 8-1 may be too generous of a price to pass on.

5- Sistercharlie (Ire)

It feels wrong to have this mare fourth, but that’s simply where she belongs based on her first start off the layoff. She was alarmingly flat as the heavy favorite, finishing behind fellow runners Starship Jubilee and Call Me Love, and I don’t think her performance was a result of the time off. Her late running style won’t help her either in a race where I think the pace will hold. I don’t want to believe this is the end for this superstar, but I’m concerned.

Order: 3 4 1 5

I think Rushing Fall has an excellent chance of winning this race on the front end, as she’s done in so many prior starts. Starship Jubilee has been consistently excellent for years, and I expect another strong performance from her. Meanwhile, I think Call Me Love is being underrated here, considering that she’ll likely get a more favorable pace setup than Sistercharlie, who she finished ahead of last time out.

 

Race 9

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf

3- Allied Invasion
6- Aintitfunkynow
2- Ringgood
5- Nero’s Fiddle
Order: 3 6 2 5

Allied Invasion and Aintitfunkynow are the two clear top choices, as one will likely improve in their second start and the other had a tough trip last time out and will bounce back. They’re simply faster than the rest of the field. Ringgood is an interesting value play in class off a long layoff, and Jose Ortiz and David Donk have been working very well together lately. Nero’s Fiddle seems to be a step below, but could very well compete for a minor prize.