The rain will likely put a damper on the early part of this Saratoga card, but the G1 Fourstardave should reinvigorate racing fans later in the day. It wouldn’t be the first time that Fourstardave Day was affected by rain, as several of my more familiar readers will remember with varying levels of frustration.
Race 1 (OFF THE TURF)
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
Note: My analysis for the first race was done under the assumption that it would be run on turf. Since it’s been taken off, I don’t see the merit of including such analysis with the knowledge that they’re no longer being run on that surface.
Race 2
$25,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
There’s an overwhelming favorite in this race, and while I don’t consider him weak, I do consider him vulnerable. I feel obligated to take a shot against him in my top four:
2- Macho Jack
Coming off the layoff for Rudy Rodriguez can be hit or miss, but it didn’t affect this gelding as he romped in a maiden claiming competition to win by nearly seven lengths. A.C. Avila claimed him that day, and while that’s not necessarily an upgrade, his new trainer is excellent with new claiming acquisitions. That last start really demonstrates that he’s in good condition, and it’s enough for me to take a small chance against an overwhelming favorite.
4- Airtouch
If this gelding returns to his form from last year, he’ll win this race by 10 lengths. That’s something that every bettor should accept going in. By putting him second, I’m gambling with the notion that his form has deteriorated, and I think I’m on fairly solid footing. He was competing at a very high level last year, running against horses that would crush this field. However, after a year off, Todd Pletcher is entering him in a race where he’ll obviously lose him. He’s been gelded recently as a five-year-old, which means that they’ve lost hope in his breeding prospects. John Velasquez returns to ride, but I’m just not sure that he’ll be the same horse here. Such an unsure commodity should never be 2-5, regardless of the upside.
3- Kilmarknock
In my estimation, this runner was very nearly a lock to win his last start, and he took care of business professionally to break his maiden. That was in statebred competition, and his speed figures add credence to the idea that he’s been a step slow in the past to win a race like this. However, it’s not so far out of reach that he can’t compete here, and if he could improve once, he can certainly do it again.
5- Beach Front
This seems like one of those cases where a new trainer claims a horse at a lower level and steps him up arbitrarily in his next start. Rob Atras claimed him for $16,000, so now he has to enter him at $25,000 to have a chance at a profit. He’s not hopeless, as he’s had several performances that could make him competitive here. However, if he couldn’t win at that slightly lower level, I don’t really see why he would improve here, regardless of Atras’ statistics off the claim.
Order: 2 4 3 5
Macho Jack is coming off an excellent maiden performance in open company, and I like his chances in his second start off the layoff. Airtouch has been much, much better than these runners in the past, but I’m not considering his past form based on a very concerning class drop. Kilmarknock and Beach Front are both competitive here, but I believe Kilmarknock gets a slight edge for better recent form.
Race 3 (OFF THE TURF)
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
Note: My analysis for the third race was done under the assumption that it would be run on turf. Since it’s been taken off, I don’t see the merit of including such analysis with the knowledge that they’re no longer being run on that surface.
Race 4
$20,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
I’m not all that interested in this race because I don’t believe the best horse will win. I’m going to play it that way, but the reality here is that the front runner in a small field like this has a distinct advantage, which is very frustrating for handicappers. Position often takes precedence over ability, which is one of the many reasons why bigger fields should really be the norm.
6- Heavy Roller
In his last start back in July, he took a step back in a $40,000 claiming race, finishing behind fellow runner Super Dude by nine lengths. However, since then, Super Dude has taken a step back as well, and Rob Atras made the right decision to give his horse time off. He’s excellent with runners coming off short breaks, and I think it may have been what this one needed. He’ll get some class relief here, and I think there’s a chance he gets some wind back into him for this start.
1- Thebigfundamental
Oh, what could have been with this gelding. At one point in time, he was well on his way to stakes competition, but several injuries have interrupted his career for long stretches of time. He’s seven now, and his first start since early 2019 was the worst performance of his career. It was, however, his first start at a sprint distance, and now he gets back to a distance he’s relished in the past. Todd Pletcher isn’t the type of guy that would force a horse to compete if it wasn’t what he wanted to do, so maybe the old man puts the pieces back together at this very low level.
3- Super Dude
Two starts back, he looked very tough in defeat ahead of fellow runner Heavy Roller. However, it was his turn to show up flat in his next start, finishing fifth by nearly 13 lengths, albeit in a much tougher field than this one. However, while Heavy Roller is getting time off before his bounceback effort, this runner will have to recover on a shorter turnaround. He’s still very qualified though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he found the winner’s circle here.
5- Majid
This gelding just ran on Wednesday, and I don’t expect him to run again here. However, I’m including him just in case, because his inclusion or exclusion will largely dictate the pace of this race. Without him, the fractions will be tepid at best.
Order: 6 1 3 5
Heavy Roller and Super Dude both have recent performances that would win this race easily, but they’ve both had mishaps in their last starts, which makes their prospects a little less clear. Thebigfundamental, however, is an even bigger question mark after so much time off. Of those three, I think one will show up, but I don’t believe the final price will properly compensate the shrewd bettors who can figure it out.
Race 5 (OFF THE TURF)
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
Note: My analysis for the fifth race was done under the assumption that it would be run on turf. Since it’s been taken off, I don’t see the merit of including such analysis with the knowledge that they’re no longer being run on that surface.
Race 6
$25,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
4- Central Exit
I liked her last time and she disappointed at a higher maiden level, but now she looks even better. Moving from John Terranova to Jeremiah Englehart is a small trainer upgrade, and Junior Alvarado is a very nice riding addition. She was a little overwhelmed at that higher level last time out but gets significant class relief at this $25,000 level. Moreover, she has a race to build on now, and I can easily see her improving.
5- Love Me Tomorrow
This runner has run consistently well for a while now, but she’s also lost consistently. She’s finished in the money six times in nine starts, and her last showing was particularly inexcusable. With an uncontested lead up front, she entered the stretch ahead by two lengths but found herself six lengths behind the winner at the wire. At some point, a bettor has to cut bait on this sort of horse, and as soon as they do that, they tend to break through.
6- Oak Creek Canyon
I don’t typically bet Linda Rice firsters because she rarely sends them out to win. However, she does recruit Jose Lezcano to ride, and the filly’s extensive work at five furlongs suggests she’ll be stretching out in the near future. I’d keep an eye on her going forward, but I don’t think this is the start to bet her.
7- Shenandoah River
Kelly Breen’s firsters have been working out very well for me lately, especially in races where the other runners lack a clear direction. However, Eric Cancel is scaring me a little here. Breen’s been pulling in some big names to ride his horses lately, and Cancel isn’t one of them. I’d rather give this filly a start.
Order: 4 5 6 7
I see Central Exit and Love Me Tomorrow as beatable favorites, but I don’t love the first time starters either. In that case, experience takes precedence, and I think Central Exit has the best chance of improving in his second start off the layoff for new trainer Jeremiah Englehart.
Race 7 (OFF THE TURF)
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
Note: My analysis for the seventh race was done under the assumption that it would be run on turf. Since it’s been taken off, I don’t see the merit of including such analysis with the knowledge that they’re no longer being run on that surface.
Race 8
$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
This is another paltry field made even smaller by the scratch of Its All Relevant. That takes away some of the pace but not all of it, which makes this a tricky race to project:
2- Growth Engine
After a year off, this gelding returned to racing at Monmouth and cruised home to win an optional claiming event by four lengths. Chad Brown was obviously encouraged by the start and shipped him up here for this tougher test. He won with Monmouth shipper Duopoly yesterday, and in his second race off the layoff, I think this gelding will work out a favorable trip in this one.
1- Blewitt
This horse is the fastest in the field and has a front running style that’s won him several races. However, his speed is dependent on getting an easy lead, and I don’t see that happening here. He may get the lead but he’ll likely have to fight for it, and at such a short price, I’ll bet that someone can wear him down late.
5- Winston’s Chance
After tailing off last year and returning in even worse form back in June, this seven-year-old has come alive in two subsequent starts at lower levels. He’s very competitive here and could get an excellent stalking trip. I do prefer others over this David Donk trainee, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeds my expectations.
3- Sea Foam
I didn’t like this horse in his last start and he proved me wrong with an impressive wiring effort against statebred competition. This is a clear step up in class, however, and I don’t think he’ll be able to get the same front running position with Blewitt to his inside. He could still hang around late, but I favor others to win.
Order: 2 1 5 3
I think Growth Engine and Winston’s Chance have excellent chances to run down Blewitt, but I’m betting that only one of them will pass the front runner that may be a little stubborn in the stretch. Sea Foam would be more dangerous with an inside position, but he’ll either have to duel outside of Blewitt or try to work out a stalking trip against more established runners.
Race 9 (FULL ANALYSIS)
Fourstardave Handicap (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
1- Raging Bull (Fr)
I loved his chances in the G1 Shoemaker Mile two starts back and he delivered in a big way. In his next start in the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile, he didn’t have the same punch but still ran well to finish third by a neck behind upset winner War of Will. He’s come alive at Saratoga in the past, but came up short to talented runners like Bricks and Mortar and fellow runner Got Stormy up here last year. My primary concern with him is the pace, which won’t be nearly as hot as it was in the running of this race last year, in which he came up short. However, he’s certainly a horse for the course, and I expect a strong performance.
2- Casa Creed
This colt was a turf star at three, and while he’s taken a small step forward, he hasn’t yet established himself as a top-tier older turf runner. The pace scenario may give him an outside chance, he’d have to deliver the best performance of his life off a short layoff in order to win here.
3- Emmaus (Ire)
He’s come up just short in graded stakes competition time and time again, but relatively unknown trainer Connor Murphy continues to try him at this level. His last start was arguably one of the best efforts of his career, but he finished fifth by a length over fellow runner Raging Bull. He’s never won at this distance and is totally unfamiliar with Saratoga, but at least he’ll be sitting midpack.
4- Got Stormy
As a four-year-old, this mare would be a serious contender in this race. She’ll take some money for that superior form last year, but in reality, her recent starts make me question her current form. She’s delivered several disappointing performances this year, and unless she improves, she doesn’t have much of a chance to win here beyond a solid early position near the front.
5- Halladay
If there was any horse in this race that will benefit from the likely pace scenario, it’s this colt. Before the layoff, he drastically improved in two very impressive wiring efforts, and in this race, it appears as though he he won’t have much to worry about early. He came back a little flat in the G2 Bernard Baruch, but he didn’t get the lead that day and may have just needed a start. Todd Pletcher knows when his runners belong in races like these, and with the right fractions, it’ll be hard to get around this one late.
6- Uni (GB)
The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile had no chance chasing lone front runner Newspaperofrecord in a six-horse field last time out. The mare makes her second start of the year here, and some sharp workouts make me believe that Chad Brown will have her ready here. Her late running style may be an issue in a race with some tepid fractions, but this larger field may present an opportunity for a superior closer to make up the difference.
7- Valid Point
Much like Casa Creed, this colt established himself as a top three-year-old turfer but hasn’t yet taken the necessary step forward as an older horse. He didn’t have the best trip in his first start of the year, the G3 Poker, and he can improve at any time, but it’s hard to see him competing here on paper.
8- Without Parole (GB)
Since settling into North American racing with Chad Brown, this horse has constantly been at the heels of some excellent horses. He finished third in the BC Mile behind fellow runners Uni and Got Stormy, and then returned this year with two close losing efforts behind Raging Bull. He hasn’t won since 2018, but I think a solid effort is essentially ensured at this point.
9- Chewing Gum
Bill Mott’s second long shot in this race is even stranger than the first. He’s improved recently but hasn’t run at a mile since last year. It would be very hard to imagine a scenario where he can compete with some of the runners here.
Order: 6 1 5 8
I don’t foresee a Chad Brown superfecta, but I don’t think it’s too far off. Uni had very little chance last time out but ran about as well as she could have. She seems focused in the morning, and I think she’ll return to her winning ways. Raging Bull is an excellent runner that loves Saratoga, and while the pace may compromise his chances a bit, he should still be closing fast. As much as this race favors Halladay, this just isn’t the type of race that he wins. Todd Pletcher is a professional, but he’ll try to wire a quartet of top Brown runners, and I just don’t see it. Without Parole has been a step short in the past, and I expect a solid run in defeat from him here as well.
Race 10
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
9- Rakeez
Winning in the turf at Gulfstream in January is no easy task, but this Chad Brown trainee got the job done off a short layoff to break his maiden. He’s had a lot of time off since, but Brown entered him in a very competitive spot here. The speed figure he earned in his maiden win would be enough here as well, and I think his running style will give him a good trip regardless of the pace setup.
5- Battalion
I liked this colt in his last start but he came up short to Winning Factor, who went on to win his next start. Bill Mott finds a somewhat softer field here, and I think he’s a solid contender based on his last start. His late running style may keep him from the winner’s circle, but I think part of that trip last time came down to a bad start from the gate.
1- Letterman
Jimmy Bond and Tyler Gaffalione have been working very well together at this meet, and this gelding finished 2019 with some very good performances around this level. My only issue is that Bond doesn’t do too well with long layoffs like this, so while I appreciate the horse, I’d like to see him get a start first.
3- Catorat
I really liked this one last time out, and he ran well to finish second for David Donk. I don’t like him as much in this one, however. There’s not much pace here, which could hurt him if he tries to close from far back as he has in the past. This is also a tougher field, and suddenly his speed figures don’t appear as competitive. He can still compete, but I prefer others this time around.
Order: 9 5 1 3