Saratoga Analysis: Saturday, August 15, 2020

Man, it’s been a weird couple of days at Saratoga, but we persevere and turn the page to an excellent Saturday card. Bruce Brown and Chad Brown have won the same amount of races this week, which is really indicative of the silliness I’ve had to put up with. How does someone account for the fact that every trainer seems to have a live horse? Such is the challenge at Saratoga, but I’ve never had more fun in my life, even in crushing defeat.

On another note, an opinion piece was published in USA Today a few days ago advocating for Gamine to enter the Preakness against potential Triple Crown contender Tiz the Law. It felt pretty good to know that I wrote a very similar article back in June, and it felt even better to see that I held my own in terms of content against a nationally published outlet. Assuming the two three-year-olds dominate the Oaks and Derby as they have their previous starts, anyone uninterested in seeing that matchup in the final Triple Crown isn’t really interested in horse racing. I’ll stand by that opinion until I deem the matchup to no longer be a competitive one.

Now that the Patrick Moquin Humility Hour is over, let’s crack into this wonderful card.

Race 1

$14,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

Usually I don’t like these races, but this one isn’t half bad. I think handicapping everyday lets me get to know the horses a little more, so I’m more interested in the result. My top four:

3- Invest

Chasing Foolish Ghost around the track didn’t do him any favors, which is why I’m excusing that performance and focusing on his previous starts. In his first start off the layoff, he ran gamely at a mile to hold off Violent Delights and clear the N2L claiming condition. On speed figures, I think he just barely fits on the basis that fellow runners Bebe Banker and Later Cat won’t repeat their best recent performances. A C Avila had Dylan Davis riding last time but picks up Joel Rosario for this start, and I think he kicks things into gear for this run. The only question is distance, which I’m not sure he’s optimized to handle, but he can probably handle it better than other contenders.

4- Bebe Banker

Two starts back, this runner was the biggest lock to win since I’ve started this website, and he took full advantage of that field in a nearly nine-length victory. It was a great performance, but there are a few reasons to question whether he can repeat it. The first is his poor last start, which was at a much longer distance, but he quit on the front end long before the distance should have worn on him. The second is the distance he’s running at today, which is much shorter than he’s used to. As the 6-5 favorite, he’s clearly dangerous for Rudy Rodriguez and Irad Ortiz, but I think he’s a little vulnerable.

5- Somebody

This is a strange runner in this race. Last time Jimmy Bond entered him off a layoff, he first put him in a sprint like this one at Aqueduct and he struggled. He stretched him out in his next start and he won by nearly eight lengths. It’s very easy to suspect he’s doing something similar here, but it’s also hard to ignore that Luis Saez is riding, despite the fact that 6-5 shot Bebe Banker was his previous mount. This gelding has regularly demonstrated he can’t run as well at this distance, and Bond has used it as a freshener in the past. However, Bond is very hot and he’s worked incredibly well with Saez in the past, so this is a weird option for bettors. 

6- Call the Cat

This gelding is clearly out of his league in this race, as his very best speed figures don’t even come close to those of the real contenders. However, it’s important to note that of my top four, he’s the only runner that is actually a sprinter, and if they all regress under the shorter going, maybe this Gary Sciacca trainee has a say in the late stages.

Order: 3 4 5 6

This is a strange race because all of the top contenders are more comfortable running in routes. I think Invest can handle it best out of all of them, and he’ll be prepared by A C Avila to take down this field with new jockey Joel Rosario. Bebe Banker and Somebody seem a little more volatile at this distance, with Somebody confusing me thoroughly. Call the Cat is a long shot that will probably deliver a consistent performance.

 

Race 2

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf

The challenge with the juvenile races at this point in the year is figuring out if the experienced runners have learned enough to defeat the promising firsters. I don’t think that’s the case here, as is evident in my top four:

4- Public Sector (GB)

Unlike his stablemate, this colt has been running in the morning at Saratoga for a while now, and he’s been training very well. With Irad Ortiz riding for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables, the 39’ Tomlinson looks even better, and I think he’ll respond on first asking.

5- Polinesia

I would have this colt on top in almost any other scenario, but Chad Brown happens to have a slightly more attractive runner in this one. Brown and Peter Brant team up with this runner that seems to be a step behind Public Sector in every way. Jose Ortiz is riding, he has a 377 Tomlinson for the distance, and he always seems to be a little behind in the morning, although they do train a day apart. I expect this runner to do well here nonetheless.

2- Rock Sugar

He showed some ability in his last start, closing into a slow pace to take third behind Zippy Baby, who had been knocking on the door for a while. Bill Mott usually does better with his juveniles second time out, so it’s encouraging to see this one show something on first asking. Unfortunately, he’ll have to deal with two Brown firsters here.

6- Rip It

He was the tepid favorite in his first start, but had no chance starting far back in a race without any pace to speak of. Christophe Clement isn’t too effective with maidens making their second start, but I also doubt that this colt’s last performance was the extent of his ability. I expect him to improve, but again, Brown’s firsters seem tough here.

Order: 4 5 2 6

I think this race comes down to the Chad Brown contingent, and I like Public Sector a little more than Polinesia. From there, I think Rock Sugar and Rip It both gave solid performances that they can work with the second time out. I don’t see them fighting for more than a minor prize, however.

 

Race 3

$32,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

This is a race with several very talented horses, which makes it the perfect time to pick a long shot. Alright, well maybe not the best time, but I’m doing it anyway because I haven’t reached in awhile. My top four:

2- Hawaiian Noises

Alright, let’s have some fun here. Before the layoff, this runner was training for Jason Servis, and things were going fairly well at Aqueduct. He was running at a level that was competitive here, and it really wasn’t that long ago. He was claimed by Edward DeLauro, an 0-for-16 trainer this year, and things went a little sideways. He was out of his depth before the layoff but earned a solid 79 BSF, and his first race off the layoff was a total disaster. He’s making his second start off the layoff and DeLauro is dropping him in class to a level at which he’s been comfortable in the past. He hasn’t had a legitimate jockey on his back since Servis was training him, but Joel Rosario is signing on this time around after the gelding ran a bullet in his most recent workout. He’s definitely a reach in this competitive field, but it all seems so clear when I write it out, right?

4- Skyler’s Scramjet

The class drop really served this gelding well last time out, although I didn’t see it coming at all, because it’s always hard to see a jockey’s first win at the meet before it happens. This horse used to be a really solid runner and his last start was reminiscent of that form, though it is a little concerning that Aristocratic almost hung on despite being a fairly reputable quitter on the front end. He’s a pro that might have regained his form last time out, which makes him dangerous going forward.

3- Reed Kan

This ridgling has been unstoppable since the break, taking two straight claiming races for Mertkan Kantarmaci and Benny Hernandez. He’s great at this distance, but he’s never run at Saratoga, a track at which Kantarmaci has been doing well while Hernandez has been struggling mightily. There’s something about his workout tab that suggests to me a dud might be coming, but it’s not nearly enough to suggest that confidently. He’s a key contender here that I’m probably underrating.

5- Chateau

He probably shouldn’t be fourth on my list here, but that’s how it shakes out sometimes. Since leaving Jason Servis’ barn, this gelding simply hasn’t been the same, and Rob Atras has to do the sensible thing and drop him in class here. Improvement is always a distinct possibility for a runner that was very good in the past, but he’s simply too risky to take until he demonstrates improvement on the track.

Order: 2 4 3 5

Hawaiian Noises is definitely a fringe player here, but there’s so much to like that I can’t really resist. Skyler’s Scramjet and Reed Kan are taking on very similar roles as hot hands entering this race, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the former did a little better than the latter. If Chateau gets back to his Servis form, he’ll win this race by 10 lengths.

 

Race 4

$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

1- Orb in the Tower

This colt’s first start could have gone better, but I actually like the way he was running in the stretch. After going extremely wide around the turn, he still seemed intensely interested in the stretch and finished fifth behind fellow runners Papa Luke and Farragut. Both of those runners improved in their next starts, and Charlton Baker is excellent with second time starters anyway. Joel Rosario sticking around is also a great sign, and I really like this horse’s upside here.

3- Papa Luke

He’s been knocking on the door for some time now, having finished second in his last two starts with big speed figures. Anthony Dutrow continues to recruit top jockeys to ride him and gets John Velasquez again for this start. He’s a very talented horse, but I also get the feeling that he should have broken his maiden by now. I’ll take a small chance against him here, but I’m not leaving him out of everything.

8- Eccoci Qua

I’m not sure if Irad Ortiz is interested in this Kelly Breen firster or if he’s just picking up a mount, but Breen won a maiden race yesterday, so I’m not waiting to find out. Breen liked what he was doing at Monmouth and shipped him up here, and he’s actually pretty solid with first time starters. This is an interesting option in a wide open race. 

7- American Piper

Rick Buckley let me down last time, but the prodigal son returns with what appears to be the only hopeful runner he’s had in years. This gelding has been training incredibly well at Pimlico recently, and Buckley ships him up here for his second start. It’s not great to see Irad Ortiz leave, but he gets lasix here for the first time after fading last time. I think he’s still promising.

Order: 1 3 8 7

Orb in the Tower is an excellent option here after his first start turned out to be a live race in which he ran well. Papa Luke beat him last time, and while I think he’s a very dangerous runner, I also think he’s beatable. Eccoci Qua is an interesting firster for Kelly Breen, and Irad Ortiz has picked him over previous mount American Piper, who I’m also vaguely interested in.

 

Race 5

$16,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

This race features a very large field and a few interesting runners. That makes any race tolerable, even at a low level like this one. Unfortunately, it doesn’t happen often enough:

3- Fevola

I see a potential pattern here. In his first start back in January, this gelding was a little flat, and then he came alive in his second start to break his maiden with an 82 BSF. In his first start off the layoff, he was flat, and now Jose Ortiz will replace Manny Franco for this start. Chad Brown is excellent with everything, including runners making their second starts after time off. I’ll take my chances at 3-1.

10- Brazen

The front runner in this race has had everything his way lately, but he’s taken full advantage. Coming off a maiden win at Indiana Grand, he proved that he was better than that track would suggest, finishing second in his Saratoga debut. He was competitive at that $40,000 level, which is why I’m somewhat surprised that he’s dropping in class here. In addition to the class drop, this is a much bigger field that may challenge his running style a bit more, which is why I think he’s beatable.

2- No Lime

This colt won his very first start last July and hasn’t found the winner’s circle since. However, Bill Mott isn’t very aggressive with runners coming off layoffs, which makes this one’s runner-up finish in his three-year-old debut better than it looks. He’s been training very well in the morning and has proven effective over seven furlongs in the past, so I like his chances in his second start off the bench.

11- Beach Front

This gelding is winless on the dirt, which I suppose is a concern. His last start on the turf was a waste of time, but in his first start off the layoff on the dirt, he ran well against a weaker field with a 73 BSF. That figure fits well here, and while Irad Ortiz is probably just picking up a mount here, his addition is always welcome.

Order: 3 10 2 11

I think Fevola is sitting on a big race for Chad Brown, and I always feel very confident when I have one of his horses on top as a non-favorite. Brazen deserves favoritism here and should get a clear lead early, but I’m not sure he’ll have such an easy time up there this time around. No Lime is a sneaky runner that’s probably better than his last start suggests, while Beach Front is a bit of a wild card that I’m not really considering too highly.

 

Race 6

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

I think every colt in the field has a chance, which makes it extremely difficult to handicap and a lot of fun to watch. This seems like a really deep field that can produce some future talent, but at this moment, it’s a wide open affair that could literally go in any direction. My top four:

10- Restored Order

Todd Pletcher had this two-year-old ready to race very early on when he entered him at Gulfstream back in May. He was a little green that day in a run for show money, and he’s had a few months to develop on the shelf since. Irad Ortiz and Pletcher work phenomenally well together, and Pletcher is superb at bringing horses along early in their careers. 

6- Calibrate

Steve Asmussen has had some excellent juveniles at Saratoga this meet, and enters another firster here that’s been training well in the morning. Purchased for $340,000, Ricardo Santana takes yet another mount for Asmussen, and he looks ready to respond on first asking here.

1- Engrave

For $900,000, this isn’t actually the best looking Chad Brown firster of the meet on paper. That being said, it’s a $900,000 purchase for Chad Brown.

4- Swill 

In his first start at Keeneland, this runner finished behind Therideofalifetime, who made his next start in a graded juvenile stakes up here in his next start. Brad Cox is excellent with maidens making their second start, and while Joel Rosario has gone elsewhere, I can easily see this runner improving here.

Order: 10 6 1 4

Todd Pletcher off the layoff has been a favorite angle of mine, and Restored Order displays it beautifully. Calibrate seems like a promising two-year-old for Asmussen, who’s already had some very talented two-year-olds and this meet. Engrave is a Chad Brown firster purchased for $900,000 at auction, and Swill is making his second start for Brax Cox after a solid performance last time out. Any of them can win, and there are several I didn’t mention that have a chance as well.

 

Race 7

$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf

In this 12-horse field, seven of them faced off in the same race last time out on July 25. That makes this a prime trip handicapping race because I can directly compare the runners. My top four:

6- Mo Ready

In his 2020 debut, this gelding seemed poised to make a move but was stopped completely by an impenetrable wall of horses in front of him. By the time he found room and began to rally, it was wait too late and he had to settle for fifth. He makes his second start off the layoff here for Todd Pletcher with Jose Ortiz, and a cleaner trip here will likely prove to be the deciding factor. 

7- Simply

There were two runners in that race on July 25 that lost all chance with and trips, and this was the second of the pair. He seemed intensely interested closing from the back but had absolutely nowhere to go and never managed to get going. He seems to be a versatile type that can run at sprint and route distances, so a mile is a very reasonable distance for him. I think he can improve significantly with a better trip this time around, even without Joel Rosario in the reins.

2- Sanctuary City

He ran the best race last time out but also got the best trip from far back. Horses that managed to find the middle of the track in the stretch ran extremely well that day, and I think this runner got the best trip without being the best horse that day. He can still run well here, but I’m looking for other to get the dream trip.

3- Albie

In his last start, this gelding had to fight hard for the lead and got it before fading badly in a race strongly favoring closers. In a 12-Horse field, he probably won’t get the lead here, and that’s almost a good thing, because I doubt it holds up. He hasn’t won since his debut back in 2018, but he’s been very professional on several occasions and could workout a favorable stalking trip with new jockey Joel Rosario in the saddle.

Order: 6 7 2 3

Mo Ready and Simply had the toughest trips last time out, and while I’m unsure that Simply could have won that day, I’m incredibly confident that Mo Ready would have been in contention. He should be a very interesting play here. Sanctuary City had all the luck last time out, but he’s still a talented animal that can do well here. Albie wasn’t in the right spot last time out, but could do better with a more favorable pace scenario up front.

 

Race 8

Saratoga Derby Invitational for Three-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf

This is a fantastic turf race between some of the best three-year-olds on the grass today. Decorated Invadr will have a lot to deal with here, with stablemate Gufo and two relative newcomers trying to break through to the next level of racing. My top four:

2- Decorated Invader

This colt has been unstoppable thus far this year, but will get one of his stiffest tests in this race. After fellow runner Gufo was scratched, he lost most of his competition and won the G2 Hall of Fame easily. He’s the clear favorite here and shortens up to a distance he hasn’t run in awhile, but something he not definitely can handle. He’s the one to beat.

6- Colonel Liam

Is the 100 BSF legitimate? If it is, he’s one of the best three-year-olds in the country, and is several lengths better than Decorated Invader and Gufo. He earned the figure in a much softer field than the one he’s about to face here, and the trip he got couldn’t have been better. This is a class test more than anything else, and while I’m not one to question speed figures too often, it may be possible that he’ll have trouble replicating it this time around.

5- Gufo

I picked this runner to defeat Decorated Invader before he was scratched in the G2 Hall of Fame. He seemed to be entered in a position to win that day, but this time around, it appears that Christophe Clement is favoring his other runner. While Joel Rosario is riding D.I., John Velasquez will be taking this mount for the first time, and he very rarely works with Clement. He’s an extremely talented runner that I’m rather fond of, but it doesn’t appear that he’s receiving the bulk of his trainer’s attention.

7- Field Pass

He’s an outsider here, but he sure likes to win. In his three-year-old season, he’s won four of five starts, three of them in photo finishes, and it seems like he does just enough to win. This makes him difficult to judge on the basis of speed figures, because he’s never had to face a field as tough as this. The extent of his ability is difficult to judge, but I think he’s a very interesting play in a race that seems to have a limited number of real challengers.

Order: 2 6 5 7

Decorated Invader is a very impressive runner, and while I do think he’s beatable here, I also think he’s a very qualified runner. Colonel Liam only has one race to go off of, but if he can repeat it, he’ll dominate this race. Gufo is another great Clement runner, but I don’t think he’s being favored by his trainer. Field Pass is actually becoming more and more interesting as I look at him, but he’s still the fourth best option in this highly competitive race.

 

Race 9

Alabama Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds Fillies, 1 1/4 Miles on the Dirt

The winner of this race will likely end up as the second choice in the Kentucky Oaks next month, and in any other year, it would likely establish the favorite. It’s crazy that these fillies will be running the classic distance before they compete in the Kentucky Oaks, but I really appreciate the change in the schedule in certain respects. My top four:

5- Swiss Skydiver

Her last three races have put her up against some of the very best three-year-olds in the country, and she’s done exceptionally well. An argument can be made that Venetian Harbor and Speech are the third and fourth best fillies in the country right now, and she handled both of them easily before entering the G1 Blue Grass against the boys. She ran very gamely there and was the only one that challenged Art Collector, who will likely go off as the second choice in the Kentucky Derby next month. She’s been excellent this year and will be the likely challenger to Gamine in the Kentucky Oaks. This is a serious distance test, but it’s going to test all these runners, and I think she’s equipped to handle it.

1- Envoutante

This filly hasn’t received much attention in the bigger picture, but her performance last time out was very encouraging. She ran third to Speech and Venetian Harbor in the G1 Ashland, and while she was a step slow to them, she’s coming into her own well. It seems a little strange to have Ken McPeek’s two runners on top, but I think he’s prepared two runners very well here.

2- Spice Is Nice

Todd Pletcher’s million-dollar purchase finally started to live up to the hype last month, when she responded very well off the layoff to defeat a softer allowance field. John Velasquez is happy to have this mount, and it’s very possible she improves in her second race off the layoff. This is a class test that I believe she can handle.

3- Crystal Ball

This filly very nearly won the G1 CCA Oaks but came up short to Paris Lights. Looking back, that race appears to be a little weak in comparison to others in here, so it’s not as live as it is in some years. However, she’s still a lightly raced Bob Baffert runner, which means that improvement can come suddenly and dramatically.

Order: 5 1 2 3

I’m not a huge fan of the bounce phenomenon, and I also reject the idea, for the most part, that a filly would struggle to recover from a hard-fought race for the sole reason that she was running against males. Swiss Skydiver has done nothing wrong recently, and the idea that her schedule would wear her out isn’t one that I’m on board with. Envoutante is a sneaky runner that’s run well against some pretty tough competition, while Spice is Nice is untested but can handle the hike in class. I feel very uncomfortable leaving Crystal Ball and Bob Baffert in fourth, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he burns me.

 

Race 10

$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

This is a very solid statebred race with some insanely live horses. This is the age old problem of Saratoga; I think there are four or five runners sitting on a huge race here. Let’s take a stab at it:

1- Maxwell Esquire

After running very competitively against several talented open company horses, this colt found a much softer field in statebred company and took care of business at even money. This is a much tougher field for him, but not one that I believe is beyond his ability. He’s faced some of the best three-year-old turfers in the country this year, so I believe it’s a lateral move to face some older horses that are merely talented. 

4- Call Me Harry

This is a necessary bet for the many electricians in my audience, and that’s a good thing, because this gelding is live. In four races at three, he ran well on several occasions, and was exceptionally good in his first two starts at this distance at Saratoga. He has demonstrated a need for a start off of layoffs before he improves, and it’s not great to see Joel Rosario leave to ride fellow runner Maxwell Esquire. However, Kelsey Danner seems to have a talented runner here, and it would make sense to have this runner ready to fire fresh on a track he’s loved in the past.

2- Shiraz

After a very tough stretch of losses, this gelding has come alive lately, stringing two victories together in open company. He’s been claimed twice now this year, and it’s awesome to see Michale Maker buy him back from Robert Falcone after losing him two starts back. He’s clearly figured something out, which makes him incredibly competitive stepping into statebred competition here.

5- New York’s Finest

Rudy Rodriguez gets a new acquisition from Gulfstream here after several successful performances down there at short sprint distances. He hasn’t been in statebred company in a long time and finally steps back into these more comfortable ranks. Rodriguez is pretty solid with newcomers to his barn and he recruits Irad Ortiz to ride. He feels like the type that would win a race like this, but he may have to wait for Belmont.

Order: 1 4 2 5

Maxwell Esquire, Call Me Harry, and Shiraz could run in any order and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest. They’re all very professional runners that have succeeded here in the past and could easily turn in a winning performance here. New York’s Finest is an outsider, but he’s also one with a very reasonable chance to mix it up with the contenders.

 

Race 11

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf

4- Bricco

His last race was nearly good enough to knock off Operative, but but he came up just short by a neck. I think this is a decent field for him to return against, and it seems a little straightforward that he can run well here regardless of the pace scenario. Jimmy Bond and Luis Saez are also an excellent combination.

6- Michael’s Bad Boy

In two starts this year, this gelding has run very well with speed figures that could win here. My main knock here, besides the subpar Franco/Nevin connection, is the fact that he definitely needs a pace to run into. That seems a little hit-and-miss here, but it doesn’t mean he won’t run well here anyway. His victory, however, will require some solid fractions.

8- Mommie’s Jewel

Robert Falcone and Joel Rosario don’t work very well tomorrow, which is surprising to me. He ran well last time, but did so with a clear early lead that he won’t get here. Even that day, he wasn’t good enough to defeat Bricco. He’s a contender here, but I don’t see him for much more than a minor prize.

9- High Tone

I liked this horse’s chances until I found out he was scratched. Now I’m not so sure.

Order: 4 6 8 9