Aqueduct doesn’t produce Kentucky Derby winners. It hasn’t for some time. In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood Memorial before taking down a weak Derby field, becoming the first to pull off the feat since Pleasant Colony in 1981. In 2003, Funny Cide lost in the Wood but went on to win at Churchill, much like Secretariat did 30 years prior. But in general, New York is no longer the place for Derby hopefuls to spend their winter months. This race seems to confirm that.
The 2022 running of the Withers Stakes is an improvement on the Jerome Stakes, the race before this one on the Aqueduct trail to the Derby. But the new faces in this field aren’t as fresh as they are around the country. New York’s best representative, Mo Donegal, has shipped to Florida to run in the G3 Holy Bull instead. There are at least four runners in that field at Gulfstream that could win this race by five lengths.
I don’t want the relative weakness of the field to completely detract from the handicapping process. There is an interesting pace dynamic to consider, and a sloppy track should throw a wrench in proceedings. But with two other prep races this weekend, it’s also hard to avoid the bigger picture. Unless someone blows everyone’s doors off, this race probably won’t produce anything more than one or two Derby also-rans.
Maybe writing with a headache is just dampening my mood though. No need to be so dour; it’s still a horse race. Let’s have some fun with it, shall we?
Aqueduct, Race 8
Withers Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
1- Constitutionlawyer
The 85 BSF he earned in his third maiden race is by far the best speed figure any runner in this field has earned. The fact that he earned it on a muddy track should also be an advantage in this spot after a few more rainy days in New York. His last start was more of a match race than anything, in which the top pair took the lead early and didn’t look back. He won that battle and steps up in class here with an apparent speed advantage, even if he probably won’t take the lead so lazily this time around. Trainer Ray Handal has been untouchable at Aqueduct lately and I like the addition of Jose Lezcano.
2- Grantham
After a solid debut at Churchill, Michael Maker found some class relief for this runner on the synthetic track at Turfway Park. He won that day with a confident ride and improved speed figure at 4-5 odds, but I don’t know if that suggests that he’s ready for these ranks. If he’s going to break into the Derby conversation, he’s found the weakest field possible, but he still seems to be a step below.
3- Smarten Up
Parx is such a weird racetrack. This colt is clearly capable, but the speed figure he earned for a nine-length maiden victory in Pennsylvania was only 59, despite the fact that he earned a 71 in defeat a month prior. Trainer Alfredo Velazquez’s confidence was rewarded in the Jerome Stakes, when his runner closed from last to take place money at 21-1 odds in his New York debut. He’s probably not a contender to win this one, but I’m not ruling out a minor prize.
4- Gilded Age
As a two-year-old, this colt had some terrible luck in three straight maiden races. Though he didn’t necessarily perform well enough to compete in those early outings, he was also facing off against the likes of Giant Game, Call Me Midnight, Surfer Dude, Rattle N Roll, Ignitis and Major General, all of which have found their way to Derby preps. He finally broke through in his fourth try at Churchill in November, and I really like his performance that day. He proved to be the outlier in what seemed like a carousel race, as he closed from far behind to win with ease over highly touted challenger Chileno. The 70 BSF he earned was a little light, but bettors can probably expect improvement after a three-month layoff.
5- Courvoisier
I think that the Jerome Stakes is the least useful Derby prep of the year so far, but at least this runner won the event. Following a maiden victory after four tries, this colt improved slightly in his stakes debut while many of the other contenders took a step back in form, allowing him to win with a perfect stalking trip. The track will likely be sloppy again for this race, but there are some new faces in here that might make things a little harder for this two-time winner.
6- Unbridled Bomber
Closing in the slop always poses challenges, which may excuse his fourth-place finish in the Jerome last time out. But it’s also important to note that he was outrun from the back of the pack in that race by fellow runner and 21-1 shot Smarten Up. His maiden victory was visually impressive, but it’s still his best performance to date and he will have to take a step forward at some point to contend.
7- Noneedtoworry
If he beats me, he beats me. But without any stakes experience and five starts at Parx, he’s nearly impossible to back. His victory in an allowance on a good track was commanding, but he only earned a 67 BSF in what seemed to be his best possible effort.
8- Un Ojo
I’m not totally sure what we’re doing here. After two starts at Delta Downs, this gelding entered Tony Dutrow’s barn and shipped to New York, where he nearly pulled off a 23-1 upset in a statebred stakes race. But the 62 BSF he earned is nowhere near what he would need to win a race like this one. I know I just tore into Parx shipper Noneedtoworry for his lack of class, but at least I understand why a small-time Pennsylvania trainer would take a shot on a hot horse in a big race. This entry, on the other hand, completely mystifies me. Not only is he outclassed, but he also appears vastly overmatched. Maybe the 424 Tomlinson for wet tracks does the trick, but he deserves to be the longest shot in the field.
9- Early Voting
Winning on debut at Aqueduct is typical for Chad Brown starters, but I still appreciate the flashy way in which this colt won. Dueling outside of two horses, he eventually put them both away and held off a late challenge to win handily. It seemed to be a determined effort for a 76 BSF, but it was still instructive and will probably prepare him well for this start. If he chooses to go for the front again, he’ll probably have to deal with similar company to his inside, but something tells me that rating won’t be too difficult for him. He’s a deserving contender, and Jose Ortiz chose to ride him over at least two other runners in the field.
10- Mr Jefferson
Maybe he just doesn’t like wet tracks, but his last effort in the Jerome was extremely disappointing. Though he wasn’t competitive two back in the G2 Remsen, the 75 BSF he earned was a vast improvement over his previous starts. A 56 BSF and sixth-place finish, however, does little to inspire confidence, and he will likely have to deal with another wet track here.
11- Cooke Creek
After two wins at Delaware and a runner-up finish behind Rockefeller in the G2 Nashua, this Jeremiah O’Dwyer trainee seemed poised to make some noise in the Jerome at Aqueduct. But as the 7-5 favorite, he turned in a dull effort to take show money, regressing to earn a 71 BSF. Again, the sloppy track may have played a part, but he will have to deal with mud again in this race, along with the far outside post. The price will probably be right, but there are more interesting options.
Order: 4 9 1 5
As is often the case in this sort of race, I have problems with everyone. There are no world beaters here, and that makes it a game of value. As a result, I think Gilded Age is an extremely interesting option coming off of a long layoff. As a two-year-old, he could not have faced much better in four maiden races, which almost makes this a drop in class by comparison. When he finally broke through in November, he did so impressively, and there’s plenty of room for improvement with age and maturation. I’ll take anything over 5-1 on him.
Early Voting and Constitutionlawyer are both deserving favorites, and as new faces in the field, they could both prove bettors right when they win at short odds. But I don’t believe either one of them is deserving of heavy favoritism, as they aren’t significantly better than their competition on paper. If they’re mortal, then it’s probably better to go against them in the interest of finding an edge. Courvoisier was best in the Jerome last time out, but I think he’s going to struggle in this spot, along with everyone else coming out of that race.