My spring break began with a New Jersey snowstorm and a sleepover with a Labrador Retriever. When I agreed to stay in my friend’s Morristown home for a night en route to the Poconos, I wasn’t aware that my designated couch also belonged to Jake the dog.
I reasoned that Jake would at least protect me from the family’s cats, to which I’m extremely allergic, but I was quickly proven wrong when Zayn the American Shorthair jumped on my chest at three in the morning. Jake just whined that his spot had been stolen.
I’m not sure how my friends plan to get through eight inches of snow in Pennsylvania today, but I’ll probably be asleep for most of it. Let’s look at some horses.
Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11
Tampa Bay Derby (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post: 5:23 p.m. EST
1- Grantham
Still winless on the dirt, this colt has never demonstrated the speed necessary to win a race against a field of this caliber.
2- Trademark
A pair of low-level wins at two aren’t enough to convince me, and his last-place finish in the G3 Sam F. Davis was exceptionally poor. Toss him.
3- Happy Boy Rocket
I can see why his maiden victory back in January could convince Bill Mott to step him up in class. He closed from sixth into slow fractions, indicating that he can improve on the 81 BSF he earned that day. The improvement will have to be drastic, however, for him to have a chance.
4- Classic Causeway
It was only a matter of time before this colt broke through on the Derby trail, which made the Sam F. Davis a sort of emergence for him. Though he was clearly the best in the field, he was also tested in an intense speed duel and held very well in the commanding victory. He’s still training well and should only move forward in his second start of the season. He’s a very solid favorite.
5- Giant Game
I still like his performance in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but something clearly went wrong in the G3 Holy Bull last time. He didn’t show anything in a 24-length defeat and was scratched from the G2 Fountain of Youth last weekend, which explains his long odds today. I don’t want to get burned after supporting him in the past, but I can’t really trust him either.
6- Golden Glider
I really liked him last time out in the Sam F. Davis and thought that he could have had more racing luck in the stretch. But fellow runner Classic Causeway proved himself plainly superior that day under some adverse conditions of his own. Bettors can expect improvement, but I don’t know if he can win.
7- Strike Hard
I still really respect this runner, but I don’t love the regression last time out in the Sam F. Davis. That was an opportunity for him to step forward, but the 83 BSF he earned two back in the Mucho Macho Man is still his best. Luis Saez’s choice to ride is compelling though, so I’m certainly not ruling out a minor prize.
8- Major General
If the 9-2 odds on the morning line hold up, then I would stay away from this one. He hasn’t raced since winning against a weak field in the G3 Iroquois way back in September. Maybe he’s improved with age, but it’s impossible to tell.
9- Shipsational
In his first start in open company last time out, this colt showed that his performances last year were legitimate. The problem is that he wasn’t quite as sharp in that Sam F. Davis start, even if he was the runner-up behind fellow runner Classic Causeway. Maybe he’s rounding into form after some time off; his workout tab certainly suggests a step forward is possible.
10- Belgrade
He’s undefeated in two starts but hasn’t really faced a stiff test yet. In an optional claiming event last month, he barely won with a 72 BSF that wouldn’t come close to winning here. He’s a long shot.
11- Money Supply
Big speed figures on debut are always a little tricky to evaluate, and I’m not sure I buy this one. The 91 BSF he earned is the best in this field, but I would put more stock in it if he had won by more than two lengths. That implies that all three untested maidens in that race could theoretically belong in this field, and that’s hard to believe. Maybe he really is good enough to win this one by open lengths, but I can’t trust him.
12- Spin Wheel
He improved significantly in the G3 Holy Bull, but he also finished sixth by 10 ¾ lengths. Wait and see.
Order: 4 9 6 11
Classic Causeway just seems a little too tough for this field. He’s a very solid favorite that has already proven that he’s faster than most of the runners in this field. Don’t be surprised. Shipsational and Golden Glider both lost to the favorite last time out but are also reasonable candidates for improvement. Money Supply is the newcomer in this field, but I can’t get behind the big speed figure.