I don’t think the winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby is coming out of any preps at Sunland Park. If not for Mine That Bird’s historic win in 2009, I would posit that no Derby winner will ever come out of Sunland Park. But upset victories like that are exactly why we need to pay attention. Long shots on the biggest stages have to come from somewhere, after all.
I’m actually a big fan of this race from a handicapping standpoint, and my logic is fairly straightforward. At less prestigious tracks like this one, I consider it unwise to accept obvious favorites. Obvious contenders at Sunland might be relatively talented, but they’re also there for a reason. There are no Secretariats in New Mexico. Let’s take a look.
Sunland Park, Race 11
Sunland Derby (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 7:15 p.m. EST
1- Costa Terra
Steve Asmussen tried a few tricks to get this runner into Derby contention, but it seems like he’s running out of ideas. He gave him a chance at Keeneland in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last year and brought him to Oaklawn after the break for the G3 Southwest, but the colt hasn’t responded well. This is a softer field than the ones he’s faced previously, but he’s also coming off a fourth-place finish in an above-average Oaklawn allowance race without any excuse.
2- Classic Moment
I’m frankly shocked to see Joel Rosario at Sunland, and while I’m not certain he’s here to ride this horse specifically, it’s still a massive jockey upgrade. The G3 Southwest was a little too much for this runner but he still overperformed to finish sixth at 54-1. He was much more competitive in his most recent start, traveling wide all the way around the track before finishing a close third behind fellow runners Straight Up G and Bye Bye Bobby in the Mine That Bird Derby. I can see paths to improve.
3- Fowler Blue
He’s shown some flashes of ability in the lower ranks in California, but has also proven plainly inferior behind fellow runner Straight Up G in two of his last three. He needs to take a step forward.
4- Slow Down Andy
He’s the favorite because of a sharp drop in class, which isn’t always the best reason to support a horse. Two races back, I wouldn’t say that he won the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity; Messier lost it after performing greenly throughout. Slow Down Andy then returned in the G2 Risen Star and got smoked by Epicenter. If he takes any sort of step forward, it will probably be enough to beat this field. But I can also see a number of horses improving to take him down.
5- Bye Bye Bobby
He’s a bit of a weird horse to evaluate. Two starts back, he lost to fellow runner Pepper Spray, a runner he is plainly better than. He had no trouble defeating him next time out in the Mine That Bird Derby, but came up short against another fellow runner, Straight Up G. He keeps moving forward with solid performances, but I’m not seeing a winning attitude.
6- Pepper Spray
He was definitely an overachiever winning his first three starts of his career, and a win over fellow runner Bye Bye Bobby two back is significant. But he also proved to be a step slow last time out against a number of fellow competitors in the Mine That Bird Derby.
7- Chrome King
I’m a little interested. His last start in the Turf Paradise Derby was actually really impressive, as he improved dramatically and closed into slow fractions to defeat 1-5 favorite Finneus. I don’t know if this race will necessarily favor closers, but he will probably get a quicker pace to work with. There are worse long shots out there.
8- Straight Up G
He keeps stretching out in distance while maintaining his speed, but this will prove to be yet another. Breaking from the far outside going 1 ⅛ miles, the speedster will have his work cut out for him, and that might make him a little vulnerable. He deserves attention after nice wins around the West coast, but at short odds, maybe it’s time to take a shot against him.
Order: 2 4 7 8
Classic Moment figures as the best value play in this field for a number of reasons. His third-place finish last time out is deceptively strong, and while other competitors may suffer from stretching out, I think he may benefit. Slow Down Andy is definitely a qualified favorite in this race, but I’m not convinced that he’s unbeatable and don’t feel like taking the short price on him. Chrome King will definitely need to take another step forward, but I do see ways forward for the long shot. Straight Up G is obviously a contender, but I think the stamina problem has to come into play for the speedball at some point here.