Before we continue my study of the Kentucky Derby prep season, we have two orders of business to go through. The first is a short review of an unfortunate beat, and the second concerns today’s Pegasus World Cup.
Last week’s Lecomte Stakes was a solid start to this series on Paddy’s Picks, despite an unfortunate nose bob at the finish. Interestingly, I watched the race on my phone in Duet 35, a karaoke bar in Midtown that I have now inexplicably been to twice in the last six months. As I struggled to come to terms with this new lifestyle of mine, I watched as my top pick, Epicenter, powered into the stretch while putting away Pappacap and all other challengers. It seemed like a certain win until it didn’t.
I didn’t like Call Me Midnight at all going into the race, and confidently said that he was not a contender. But he sure looked good as he charged down the center of the track to win a photo at 28-1 odds, evoking more of a wistful acceptance from me than any frustration. Maybe it was the unreasonably loud music taking my mind off of the loss, or maybe I’m just well-accustomed to the heartbreaks of horse racing by now. But as Taylor Swift and I have now sung publicly with varying degrees of consent given beforehand, “This love is difficult, but it’s real.”
As a Derby prep, I should mention that I don’t believe the Lecomte was all that helpful, as Epicenter was the only true contender to show anything exceptional during the race. Call Me Midnight could be a new challenger to the fold though, and both runners earned competitive 88 BSFs which can serve them well in the months to come.
On to more serious racing matters, I feel the need to explain why Paddy’s Picks is not providing analysis for the Pegasus World Cup. I have two reasons, and I think they’re fairly reasonable. The first is that I’m a busy man; I have things going on that occasionally preoccupy me, and now isn’t the time for me to do too many full analyses in a single week.
The second reason is that the Pegasus World Cup this year isn’t exactly deserving of intense analysis. Yes, the likely matchup of Knicks Go and Life Is Good is extremely exciting, and I will be tuning in to watch. But do readers really need me to tell them that the race is likely going to come down to the two favorites? I didn’t think so. Meanwhile, the Pegasus World Cup Turf has once again failed to attract some of the better European runners as the Breeders’ Cup does, making it a fairly pedestrian American turf stakes.
So in this article featuring analysis of the Southwest Stakes, I’ll quickly mention that I’ll be rooting for Life Is Good to dethrone Knicks Go in his farewell race and begin a new era of dominance in 2022. As for the Derby prep I’ll be analyzing, I think it’s even less competitive than the Lecomte was.
Beyond California upstart Newgrange, every runner in this race will have to improve to have any hopes of running in May. The fact that Jack Christopher (currently injured and questionable to make the Derby) earned the highest speed figure of any three-year-old in his class in October of his two-year-old season may be a telling sign that this is simply a weak crop of three-year-olds.
Oaklawn Park, Race 9
Southwest Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:22 p.m. EST
1- Ben Diesel
He’s one of many front running types in this field, but I think he’s also been a little short on luck in his two stakes starts. With far outside posts in each, he was forced to duel off the rail with runners to his inside on tracks that seemed to favor closers. His most recent start was also on a sloppy track, which could explain the drop from a 79 BSF in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club to a 73 in the Smarty Jones. He gets the rail for this race, and while I’m not sure if that’s enough for a winning effort, I think it’s reasonable to expect improvement.
2- Dash Attack
He has two wins in as many starts and one hell of a closing kick, and his performance in the Smarty Jones was commanding. But he hasn’t yet run over a fast track and he was one of many runners that closed when he earned that stakes win. He might be a little dressed up, and while he certainly has a legitimate chance of winning, 7-2 on the morning line doesn’t really entice me.
3- Don’tcrossthedevil
Wanna hear something weird? I don’t hate him. I think bettors need to toss his last start in the Smarty Jones, in which he was essentially eliminated at the start after getting squeezed and steadying to last. That race at Oaklawn was also on a sloppy track, and while this is imperfect reasoning, it’s also interesting that he improved from a 48 BSF to a 76 in two starts at Remington Park after switching from a good to fast dirt track. Jockey Lane Luzzi won’t be making the trip to Arkansas this time around, but if Ramon Vazquez is good enough for Lone Rock, he’s good enough for me. This colt is still basically untested beyond six and half furlongs and there’s nothing here to suggest he can win, but he’s also 30-1 on the morning line and probably deserves a second chance.
4- Kavod
Speaking of chances, few runners in this field have half the experience of this colt. He doesn’t have much to show for his 10 starts, but former trainer James Chapman is a goon nonetheless after losing him for $50,000 in a claiming race three back. His speed figures have improved recently and are competitive here, and he finally flashed some ability at a route distance last time out in the Smarty Jones. He also deserves some credit for hanging in there against a host of late-closing challengers after being forwardly placed early. He’s a little too erratic for my tastes and the connections are a little humble, but if someone finds an angle they like, I’m not going to stand in their way.
5- Costa Terra
Maybe the layoff does the trick, but I really don’t see much here. In his last race in October, the G1 Breeders’ Futurity, he seemed to be the slowest of a herd which flew from the back of the pack. Closing was absolutely the preferred running style and he did very little with the opportunity. He may improve naturally after three months in the barn, but Steve Asmussen’s failure to get anyone better than T.J. Pereira to ride is concerning.
6- Osbourne
The Springboard Mile at Remington Park obviously isn’t a very notable prep race for Kentucky Derby runners, but I really appreciated his effort that day. He was wide around the first turn but worked out a nice stalking trip before fighting hard in the stretch and coming up short. The 83 BSF is one of the better ones in this field, though it’s hard to tell if he was outfinished in the stretch due to distance troubles or a wide trip. The gelding is firmly in the mix here, with a few caveats.
7- Ignitis
His first six starts don’t mark him as a contender here, but his most recent performance in the Smarty Jones puts him in the conversation. He was one of many closers in the slop that day, but he also had some tough racing luck fanning wide around the final turn. Even still, I’m not convinced that he could have defeated fellow runner Dash Attack, which will likely lead me elsewhere.
8- Barber Road
He’s run respectably in two straight stakes starts, running second to Tejano Twist and fellow runner Dash Attack in the Lively Shively and Smarty Jones Stakes, respectively. He was also emphatically outfinished in both of those races though, and I have serious questions about his ability to dig deeper when the moment calls for it. His speed figures suggest that he’ll be squarely in the mix against this field, but I need to see him take a step forward at some point.
9- Classic Moment
He showed very little in the Springboard Mile while stretching out in distance, and while he did flash some early speed, the soft fractions didn’t justify his collapse. After falling apart in his only route start, I can’t really trust him to rebound at an even longer distance in a race featuring plenty of early speed types.
10- Newgrange
I don’t really know what to make of this colt after two starts. His maiden win seems promising, as does his win in the G3 Sham with an 88 BSF against the likes of Rockefeller and Oviatt Class. But he hasn’t really been tested yet in races that never forced him out of cruise control. This race features plenty of early speed and the outside post could pose a challenge, but he’s also getting a very soft field in comparison to the California rivals he just defeated. He’s a vulnerable favorite that also makes a lot of sense. The tote board may tell the tale.
11- Call Me Jamal
Fresh off a maiden win in which he wired the field in the slop under soft fractions, it’s really tough to support him stepping up in class. It will be impossible for him to replicate the trip he found last time, and he probably isn’t fast enough to win with the perfect trip anyway. He will have to improve dramatically.
12- Vivar
He’s an unlucky horse likely to get another bad break with this far outside post. In the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, he really had no chance coming from behind in a race where the front five controlled the field throughout. In his most recent start, closing was the way to go, but he was squeezed at the start and fanned widest of all into the stretch. He still made up ground to finish fifth, which suggests that he has plenty of room to improve. But sometimes horses who are consistently unlucky continue to find trouble, frustrating value bettors everywhere.
Order: 3 10 8 1
This is a dartboard race, and it should be pretty clear that I’m not overly fond of any of the options. That usually means that I’m overlooking the contender who will improve and win, but if I don’t feel confident about any of them, then it’s time to swing for the fences. Don’tcrossthedevil was virtually eliminated at the start last time out on a wet surface that he has already demonstrated a distaste for. His one career performance on a fast track is by far his best, and he will have to improve but has had time to do so. Plenty of early speed should set up well for him, and if he can find a position in the middle of the pack early on, he may have as strong a chance as any at long odds. Newgrange is a very obvious favorite taking a slight drop in class based on the competition he has faced previously. But those small California fields always benefit front runners and he has never really been pushed out of first gear. I would like to see him tested before I support him at short odds.
Barber Road and Ben Diesel are two of at least four runners who could win here with an improved performance, along with Dash Attack and Osbourne. There are even more outsiders with a chance, but each one has something to prove and I’m not convinced that any of them are capable of meeting the challenge. It’s likelier than not that one of them proves me wrong.