Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat. This race has three Bob Baffert horses in it. He may have moved them out of his barn so that they can qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but it’s little more than a thinly veiled ruse.
I’m vaguely aware of who Tim Yakteen is, and I’m also aware that he’s his own trainer with his own stable. But anyone who truly believes that these horses are under the direction of anyone but Baffert are kidding themselves. He’s trying to win a Derby from afar and he’s taking half of this six-horse field to do it. Let’s see who’s standing in his way.
Santa Anita, Race 6
Santa Anita Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:45 p.m. EST
1- Happy Jack
He improved last time out in the G2 San Felipe after a poor start in the G3 Robert B. Lewis. But even with a significant step forward, he was still well-beaten by fellow runner Forbidden Kingdom that day.
2- Armagnac
Last week, all of Bob Baffert’s serious Kentucky Derby runners were transferred to other trainers, and this one went to Tim Yakteen with the rest of the California runners. It’s encouraging to see him back on the track after a very poor start in the G2 San Felipe, but there’s no reason to suspect that he’s the first priority for his new trainer.
3- Forbidden Kingdom
He’s obviously a major player, and with three former Baffert trainees in this race, he’s a bit of a symbolic hero in California right now for relatively reputable trainer Richard Mandella. Distance was a question last time out in the G2 San Felipe but he passed the test with flying colors and won going away. He’s never faced a runner as daunting as fellow runner Messier, but Messier hasn’t seen a horse like him either.
4- Messier
Getting transferred out of Baffert’s barn is a huge deal, as it indicates that the owners want him in the Derby. The merits of his performance in the G3 Robert B. Lewis are clear as day — I don’t need to do much to break down a 15-length victory. But the layoff since February is a bit concerning, especially against a razor sharp competitor like Forbidden Kingdom. He’s as vulnerable as he’ll ever be.
5- Win The Day
After two subpar turf performances, he made his dirt debut last month and improved significantly. From a visual standpoint, I really liked his victory that day, in which he boldly made up ground and won going away. But this is a big step up in a very short period of time.
6- Taiba
The questions are obvious but the outstanding potential is crystal clear. In the first start of his career last month, this former Baffert colt broke his maiden at six furlongs with a 103 BSF. The distance might be an issue, the inexperience might be an issue and the pace dynamics of the race may prove suicidal. But the future is bright in any case.
Order: 3 4 6 5
I don’t think there’s any money to be made on this race, so I’m analyzing with my heart a little. Forbidden Kingdom isn’t quite as fast as his two main competitors, but he is the most solid runner of the trio. More importantly, his victory would lock out at least two, if not three, Baffert runners from the Kentucky Derby. Messier will be favored here on the basis of his Robert B. Lewis win, and that was a phenomenal performance. But the Santa Anita Derby doesn’t always reward the best horse in the leadup to Kentucky and the layoff may prove to be an obstacle for him.
Taiba is obviously a promising runner with tons of upside after a dominant debut victory, but there are too many uncertainties to trust him at this point in his career. Win the Day rounds out my top four because of a solid maiden victory that I appreciated from a visual standpoint.