Road to the Derby: Sam F. Davis Stakes Analysis

I don’t care if you’re working on your nacho recipe for Sunday; I need every Paddy’s Picks reader to stop what they’re doing and look at this Derby prep. It’s imperative if they consider themselves handicappers.

This year’s running of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs probably won’t produce the next Kentucky Derby winner. That’s not what I’m offering by forcing all of you to look at it. What I can offer, however, is one of the most challenging handicapping tests I’ve ever seen.

Sometimes, a field of 12 evenly matched runners can be frustrating and unworthy of a play. We’ve all handicapped turf events at Saratoga, so that exasperated feeling should feel familiar. The difference in the Sam Davis is the sheer variety between horses, to the point that every bettor can find at least one angle worth playing.

Mark Casse has three horses in the race, but they’re all long shots with upside. Saffie Joseph and Brian Lynch have bonafide Derby contenders making their three-year-old debuts. Eddie Barker’s shipping a NY statebred with some monster speed figures. To top it all off, two sprinters are likely going to come flying out of the gate, guaranteeing a competitive pace. Chad Brown, Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher are noticeably absent. Bob Baffert can bite me.

Handicapping’s supposed to be fun, and if it isn’t fun unless you’re winning, then you’re missing the point of the sport. This race is a perfect example of something that 100 people could look at and come up with 100 unique conclusions. It could take a few minutes or a few hours, but the important thing is that people look, because this is the sort of event that makes horse racing great.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 10

Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 4:54 p.m. EST

1- Mr Rum Runner

Don’t panic! It gets so much better after this one. His performance in the Mucho Macho Man was the best of his career, but he also got smoked, finishing third and 11 ¼ lengths behind. He was also 7 ¼ lengths behind fellow runner and place finisher Strike Hard that day. He’ll need to improve.

2- Unpredictable Bay

20-1 is too generous, even if the problems are obvious. Five place finishes in seven starts is never a good sign, but after reviewing his races, he doesn’t necessarily seem to be a quitter. Two starts back, he fought to the wire after setting blistering early fractions, and his most recent route start was a game runner-up finish to the highly regarded Trafalgar. The question isn’t speed, which he has to spare, but stamina, as he had to shorten all the way to six furlongs to break his maiden. It’ll be a game of cat and mouse with him here, and bettors who want to see the wire-to-wire effort should be handsomely rewarded.

 Note: If the 13, Little Vic makes it into the race off the Also-Eligible list, he will likely give this runner a little more company in the early going. Something to keep in mind.

 3- Classic Causeway

The connections obviously have high hopes for this colt, and while he still hasn’t topped the 90 BSF he earned against maidens at Saratoga, he still has plenty of potential. The Breeders’ Futurity was admittedly a clunker, in which he had to bolt to the lead from the far outside post. That race heavily favored closers, however, which actually makes his staying power in the stretch to hold on for third impressive. His follow-up start in the Kentucky Jockey Club was also a little underwhelming, and there didn’t seem to be a compelling excuse this time, as he simply got outrun by winner Smile Happy. But in three starts, he has never appeared uncompetitive, and after time off, I suspect he’ll be even better.

 4- Golden Glider

The devil’s whip couldn’t have gotten this colt out of the gate in his first two starts, but it didn’t seem to matter in the end. After breaking slow both times, he’s managed to work out two phenomenal trips from dead last to win. It’s rare to see that sort of patience in a younger horse, and he’s clearly earned enough of Mark Casse’s respect to find his way to a stakes race. His speed figures are light but aren’t totally ridiculous either, and it’s important to note that he’s routinely been closing into very soft early fractions. It’s likely that he’ll find a quicker pace here.

 5- God Of Love

He’s another one that can’t be rushed early, but he eventually got going last time out in the G3 Grey. On the synthetic track at Woodbine, he flew home from the back of the field despite slow early fractions in a visually impressive victory. The 80 BSF reinforced the apparent improvement as well, and another step forward with time off is certainly possible. Much like Golden Glider, a hotter pace may help. It’s also interesting to see him keep jockey Rafael Hernandez.

 6- Trademark

I can’t say he’s the winner here, but he’s got guts. This colt’s been cleaning up since stretching out to 1 1/16 miles, rattling off two straight wins at Churchill on the front end. Though the fractions were soft in both of those races, he was also tested in each start and passed with flying colors. I’m not sure if he can get the lead here, and the speed figures aren’t headed in the right direction, but he does have my respect on the track.

 7- Make It Big

His victory in the Springboard Mile at Remington was solid and featured a bold midpack move that I typically like. Saffie Joseph is also a tough trainer to go against in Florida, and Jose Ortiz’s choice to stay for another ride is telling. But that lone open company stakes win did fall into his lap, to such an extent that he only had one horse to beat by the time they reached the far turn. The runner-up finisher that day, Osbourne, came back to finish eighth in the G3 Southwest Stakes on Jan. 29. He’s a contender, but he’s vulnerable too.

 8- Shipsational

This is the type of horse that challenges the speed handicapper. Back in September and October, this colt ran back-to-back speed figures that could win this race. They were both NY statebred stakes races though, which should immediately lead a bettor to question them. In this case, my feelings are mixed. His 88 BSF wire-to-wire performance in the slop in the Sleepy Hollow didn’t seem overwhelming, as two other horses were in contention at the wire. Runner-up Overstep has not run since, while show finisher Who Hoo Thats Me regressed in the G3 Remsen next time out.

Two back in the Bertram Bongard, however, he seemed far more impressive. Despite only earning an 86 BSF in that race, he sat behind reasonable fractions and wore down 4-5 favorite Senbei in the stretch. Senbei went on to win two more stakes races after that and the Bongard remains his only loss. If you buy the speed figures, the layoff is the next thing to consider. Nearly four months off is a long time, but he has been training well at Tampa all winter.

9- Howling Time (SCRATCHED)

I can’t come up with an excuse for his regression in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club last time out. After dusting a weaker field in the Street Sense, he earned consideration in his graded stakes debut, and it was his race to lose when he found a clear early lead. But he faded badly in the stretch, and while the Form says that the race favored closers, I think I disagree with that assessment. He’s had some killer workouts at Gulfstream recently though, so maybe a rebound is possible.

 10- Volcanic

That three-year-old debut at Gulfstream was basically a match race, and he won it over Charge It while dominating the rest of the field. Good stuff that racing fans should check out, but it was still a maiden race. The 83 BSF he earned fits here, and it was clearly a prep for this race. But Mark Casse has three runners here and I have to imagine that he prefers one of the other two.

 11- Strike Hard

If you toss his start in the G3 Iroquois way back in September, he hasn’t done much wrong in five career starts. Two of his last three starts were place finishes, but they were behind White Abarrio and Simplification, who just ran first and second in the G3 Holy Bull. He’s improved in four straight starts and has been working brilliantly at Gulfstream. The only knocks are the connections, as trainer Matthew Williams and jockey Leonel Reyes are definitely low on the totem pole. But they’ve both done their part in getting him this far and I don’t have many problems otherwise. He’s a sound runner.

 12- Kitten Mischief

A kitten in a dirt race is rare indeed, and I’m not convinced this one belongs here. Winning an off-the-turf maiden race at Aqueduct is like winning a hot dog eating contest against kindergarteners, and his runner-up finish in an allowance race at Gulfstream could have been stronger. The winner of that race, A.P.’s Secret, was coming off a convincing loss to fellow runner Strike Hard. I love trainer Jonathan Thomas, but this gelding needs to improve.

 13- Little Vic (Also-Eligible)

Who remembers a horse named Trinniberg? Older guys and gals might also remember Songandaprayer, and this colt is kind of reminding me of those two Florida-based runners. He is obviously, obviously a sprinter by trade, but if he makes it into the race, you have to admit that it’ll be a little more exciting, right? After breaking his maiden in pedestrian fashion last September, he returned in December and gave 1-9 favorite My Prankster everything he could handle on the front end. Though he lost to the future winner of the G3 Swale, he earned an 87 BSF that marks him as a promising up-and-comer in the sprint division. With a scratch here, maybe he makes a little noise going longer. If he gets in, he’ll be the wild-eyed one gunning it from the far outside. 

(Update: Howling Time has been scratched. Start your engines.)

 Order: 4 3 5 11 8

After three hours of analysis, I managed to toss two horses in this field, leaving me with 10 to choose from. After another two hours, I’ve managed to narrow it down to five, and I don’t want to go any further. This may be the hardest race I’ve ever handicapped, and I’ve had a lot of fun doing so.

The decision between Golden Glider and God of Love was an agonizing one for me, but I eventually chose the former as my top choice. Both are closers for Mark Casse and I believe they both have stellar chances. But Casse’s decision to keep Antonio Gallardo on Golden Glider made the difference, as those two work almost exclusively together at Tampa Bay. With a solid prep race under his belt on this track, something no other runner in this field has, I think this horse has an excellent chance of closing into quicker fractions at long odds. 

Classic Causeway is a very cool horse with all the potential in the world. The layoff doesn’t concern me at all, and I think he’ll come back stronger than ever as a three-year-old. But if you take any horse on top at 3-1 or shorter in this race, you’re a chump.

 Like Golden Glider, it seems extremely possible to me that God of Love can also work out a closing trip and burn me, but I’ve placed him third because of the layoff and lack of dirt experience. I love his chances, and I’m well aware that Helium beat me in the Tampa Bay Derby under nearly identical circumstances, but I have to make sacrifices somewhere.

 It pains me to place Strike Hard in fourth, because he’s probably one of the most solid runners in the field. He hasn’t run a step out of place in three straight starts and has displayed a good measure of courage along the way. I just couldn’t overcome the connections in the end.

 If those speed figures in New York are legitimate, then Shipsational is going to be a handful in his three-year-old debut. But stepping up in class can often reveal a horse’s weaknesses, and this field will definitely test him. All three of his wins have come against five- and six-horse fields, and he’s only ever defeated one runner that might belong at this level. I would take a chance with him in most situations, but with so much to like here, I would rather take a wait-and-see approach.

is going to be a handful in his three-year-old debut. But stepping up in class can often reveal a horse’s weaknesses, and this field will definitely test him. All three of his wins have come against five- and six-horse fields, and he’s only ever defeated one runner that might belong at this level. I would take a chance with him in most situations, but with so much to like here, I would rather take a wait-and-see approach.