Who doesn’t love a small field at Santa Anita? Wait, no one? No one likes small fields at Santa Anita? I know one guy who appreciates them.
Last year’s running of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was won by future Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit and trainer Bob Baffert. Though Baffert has now won the Robert B. Lewis in three straight years, the domination didn’t start in 2019, as he has also won it nine times since 1999.
But when Medina Spirit failed a drug test shortly after his Derby win, a revolution ignited in the racing world. Baffert was “canceled” by Twitter users and the liberal media after years of controversy, and he hasn’t laid a finger on a horse since. Meanwhile, California has quickly become a haven for drug-free racing and proper animal care. Politics and corruption became a thing of the past when the racing world took a big step forward.
Just kidding.
Medina Spirit is dead and Baffert has a 39% win rate at Santa Anita this season. He has two horses in this Derby prep despite being banned from the Kentucky Derby. In a sport ultimately determined by the hearts of its equine competitors, Baffert is counting on his lawyers to overturn his exile while his horses die of cardiac events.
California is still his home, and the Robert B. Lewis is still his race to lose. Let’s get through it.
Santa Anita, Race 8
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 7:12 p.m. EST
1- Messier
That last race feels like a very fluky defeat, as bettors can probably blame Flavien Prat before the horse. As the 1-2 favorite, Prat rode his mount like he was Secretariat in the Los Alamitos Futurity and got burned when long shot Slow Down Andy ran the race of his life to nail him at the wire. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Baffert has turned to John Velasquez to take the reins for this start. Based on his previous win in the Bob Hope Stakes, this colt figures as the favorite, and will probably only lose if someone gets loose on the lead in front of him.
2- Sir London
Giving this colt a 24-second opening quarter mile at Los Alamitos was a death sentence for the rest of the field, as he was basically alone after a half-mile and went on to win by 10 lengths. The 80 BSF he earned is a little hard to decipher though, because he was getting optimal racing conditions but may have also been saving a gear or two with the race well in hand. He has the speed necessary to wire this small field, which could be a huge advantage. But I have a feeling that Wharton is going to serve a specific purpose as Baffert’s second horse setting up for Messier. He may have the odds stacked against him.
3- Cabo Spirit
He seems to be an above-average turf runner with very little proven form on dirt. That makes him a crap shoot anyway, and the story of this race on paper doesn’t seem to involve him much.
4- Wharton
His maiden victory at Santa Anita in December was stylish, but the 70 BSF doesn’t necessarily convey dominance at this level. I don’t think Baffert believes that either, but I do think he has a plan. As I mentioned, the only way that I see Messier losing this race on merit is if he gets wired by Sir London, so I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Baffert’s also entering the speediest three-year-old in his barn to keep the front runners company. That obviously hurts this colt’s chances of winning, but hey, the front isn’t always the worst place to be and the planned outcome doesn’t always come to pass.
5- Happy Jack
Doug O’Neill has been a little cold lately, and I think that the connections will hurt this three-year-old’s prospects in his second start. He won his debut nicely, coming from off the pace to win with a 75 BSF, but he needs to take another step forward to contend here. If Baffert was training him, I would feel more confident that he would reach the next level quickly, but O’Neill simply isn’t winning 39% of the time at Santa Anita like his infamous colleague.
Order: 1 2 5 4
California racing really bores me. Baffert is winning every race he feels like winning over there, and he clearly wants Messier to win this one. I’m not going to fight him on it. Sir London seems like a promising runner with a bright future, and while front runners often find success in short fields, there seems to be a pretty solid plan to take him down. Happy Jack seems like a worthy contender in this race and can probably pick up the pieces for a minor prize. I would be shocked if Wharton isn’t near the front early, and while he could still be there by the end, I don’t think that’s the intention.
OK , now you’ve hurt my feelings