Road to the Derby: Risen Star Stakes Analysis

I’m not sure if sitting in a Pennsylvania diner is really getting the muses going, but this article needs an introduction and I’m the man for the job.

This weekend, everyone’s favorite New York handicapper finds himself abroad to visit his sister, and I have to admit that I’m not cut out for country living. Waiting outside the Waffle Shop North in State College this morning, my family and I experienced our first squall. I don’t know the exact definition of a squall, but I can describe it well enough now. In one moment, visibility decreased to 30 feet as sudden gusts of wind blew snow around like Super Bowl confetti. There was an inch on the ground within minutes, but it ended as soon as it began. This place is bizarre.

For those curious about my Waffle Shop order, I got a mushroom omelette and should’ve gone for the Western. They also forgot my side of pancakes, but fortunately, I have a loving mother who was willing to spare one of hers. After breakfast, we take to the ice.

While I enjoy Penn State women’s hockey in what should be a resounding victory against the Rochester Institute of Technology, I encourage Paddy’s Picks readers to check out this exciting running of the Risen Star. From a moneymaking perspective, there might not be much meat, but there are Derby contenders all over the place. Sometimes the big score requires preparation.

Fair Grounds, Race 13

Risen Star Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 6:58 p.m. EST

1- Pappacap

Is it too early to dismiss this runner as a loser? Maybe, but it’s getting tempting. In the G3 Lecomte last time out, I went against him because I didn’t feel that he was visually impressive finishing second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I was right to mark him as a bad favorite, as he delivered another losing effort in which he never seemed to have the advantage. 

Even if I don’t like him, there are a few changes to take note of. Trainer Mark Casse is switching jockeys from Joe Bravo to Tyler Gaffalione, which is obviously an attempt to wake the horse up. Meanwhile, the start in January was a prep for this race and he may have needed it. The price should also be better and he has plenty of back class, but I don’t think I can consider him a legitimate contender just yet.

2- Russian Tank

This colt has absolutely no chance. None to speak of. But his trainer is Gennadi Dorochenko, and that reminds me of a story. This story has no handicapping value, but it’s my website and I can write what I want. Stick with me.

Every now and again, I surf YouTube watching old horse racing replays, and back when I was in high school, I stumbled on the 2012 Louisiana Derby and have rewatched many times since. Mark Valeski was the 3-2 favorite after a runner-up finish in the Risen Star, but it simply wasn’t his day. At 109-1 odds, Hero of Order held off the favorite and all other challengers to reach the winner’s circle for the second time in 14 starts. The victory would also be his last in a 24-race career. Dorochenko was the trainer.

After the race, the TVG analyst laughed and yelled, “Gennadi Dorochenko is going to the Kentucky Derby!” The phrase stuck with me for whatever reason, even if it wasn’t true. Much like Russian Tank here, Hero of Order wasn’t nominated for the Triple Crown and was therefore ineligible to earn points toward the Derby. Dorochenko’s final deadline to nominate his colt passed a week before the race. He didn’t believe in his own horse. I don’t know if there’s a lesson in that, but I think about it a lot. 

3- Trafalgar

As a precocious allowance winner making his stakes debut last time out, he did about as well as one could expect. His fourth-place finish in the G3 Lecomte was a testament to the power of speed figures, as his allowance-level Beyers simply proved insufficient against the likes of fellow runners Epicenter and Pappacap. He will have to improve to have a chance this time around.

4- Tawny Port

He took down an allowance field at Turfway Park last time out with a very confident ride, and Brad Cox is not a man to dismiss these days. But this colt would have had to win by much more at those lower levels for me to consider him against these.

5- Epicenter

He’s earned me as a fan. In the G3 Lecomte last time out, this colt ran too well to lose but was nevertheless sniped by a massive long shot closing from out of the clouds. He didn’t necessarily improve on his dominant victory in the Gun Runner two back, but he proved that he belongs at this level. Signs of natural improvement are admittedly a little unclear, but he does have a distinct pace advantage that he hasn’t yet enjoyed at this level. Getting a more comfortable setup in front may make the difference.

6- Pioneer of Medina

He only has one performance in four starts that qualifies him for this race, an allowance win at Fair Grounds last time out. Though it wasn’t quite a stakes victory, Kevin’s Folly and Stellar Tap aren’t slouches and add some credibility to the 80 BSF he earned. The question is whether he can find the same front-running trip against this field, and even if he does, I’m not sure it will be enough to win.

7- Zandon

In a completely barren New York racing scene for 2022 Derby hopefuls, he was one of a pair that truly shone. In the G2 Remsen last time out, he fought to the very end but lost the bob to Mo Donegal, who has since raced in the G3 Holy Bull and proven that he’s the real deal. With a 90 BSF under his belt through two starts, it stands to reason that this colt will be just as formidable in his three-year-old debut.

8- Smile Happy

I wasn’t a huge fan of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club from a visual standpoint, but the success of runners coming out of that race is overwhelming. Runner-up Classic Causeway easily took the G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs last week, while show finisher White Abarrio improved dramatically to take the G3 Holy Bull with a 97 BSF. Smile Happy beat both of them convincingly at Churchill and is now making his three-year-old debut. Feels a little obvious though, doesn’t it?

9- Bodock

Brad Cox is entering him for a reason, but there are just too many question marks. The distance is the biggest one, as this colt has never traveled further than six furlongs. Meanwhile, he will have to get even better through a distance test to have a winning chance. That being said, an 81 BSF in his last start was a massive improvement over his maiden victory and he displayed courage moving in between horses in the slop. He’s one to respect from afar for now. 

10- Slow Down Andy

Yes, he defeated Messier in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity, and that Baffert runner went on to dominate the G3 Robert B. Lewis. But Messier wasn’t the same horse when this colt ran the race of his life to beat him by a length with an 85 BSF. I’m not saying that he’s a complete toss as a result, but it’s also fairly clear that he needs to take another small step forward to win.

Order: 5 7 8 1

This is the point in the racing season where I start to develop preferences for certain runners. Epicenter and Zandon have already earned my respect in previous starts and will make for a very tidy exacta. I’m giving Epicenter the edge for first because I believe the early pace will benefit his running style. There are plenty of signs pointing to Smile Happy as a win contender, and while I agree with most of them, I’m also willing to take a small change against him. Pappacap is a consistent competitor that I expect to fight for a minor prize.