Though the Dubai World Cup was fun earlier this afternoon, the Louisiana Derby is still my focus on this Saturday of racing. But in a way, I’m hoping that the headline from Fair Grounds after today will not concern this race but the one preceding it.
In the 11th race in Louisiana this evening, the champion filly Echo Zulu will make her three-year-old debut in the Fair Grounds Oaks, a prep for the Kentucky Oaks in May. Of all the three-year-olds in this year’s class, I have to admit that she’s the one I’m currently most excited to see. If my predictions are correct for both feature races, Fair Grounds may be a little chalky tonight.
Though this race is relatively competitive, Epicenter is an obvious favorite that I don’t intend on going against. My analysis below suggests that I’m very tempted to try and beat him, and if he was in one of the Florida or California preps, I would probably try. But he seems to be a step above his Louisiana-based counterparts at the moment, and will need to regress to give any a chance.
Fair Grounds, Race 12
Louisiana Derby (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:44 p.m. EST
1- Silent Power
No chance in hell. He improved last time out in an ungraded stakes race at Delta Downs, finishing fourth despite a poor trip. But it was also an ungraded stakes race at Delta Downs… and he finished fourth.
2- Zozos
His allowance win last time out was definitely the right way to prepare for a stakes debut. After a lackluster maiden victory first time out, he improved dramatically to crush a talented Oaklawn allowance field that included 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner Barossa. The 92 BSF he earned is believable because he won the race by 10 ¼ lengths, and it puts him squarely in the running here. There are some saltier contenders to deal with this time around though.
3- Call Me Midnight
How much stock should we put into that G3 Lecomte win back in January. Yes, he beat fellow runner Epicenter that day at 28-1 odds, improving out of nowhere and closing from out of the clouds. That being said, Epicenter and a few others in this race have taken a step forward since then while this colt was sitting in the barn. As an outsider that felt kind of fluky then, he’s once again a bit of an outsider, and will need to demonstrate more improvement before he can be trusted.
4- Curly Tail
Absolutely not. He just broke his maiden on the sixth try, and only did it by a half length with an 80 BSF. He needs to take a massive step forward.
5- Kupuna
There are hints of ability for this colt against good company. After coming up just short to stakes runner Surfer Dude in a maiden race in November, he came back and beat up on a weaker Oaklawn field to get his first win in January. His first start against winners last month wasn’t terrible, as he stayed well to finish second behind talented runner Cyberknife. But several runners in this field have put away Cyberknife before, and the speed figures seem to reinforce that this runner has some work to do.
6- Epicenter
He hasn’t run a step out of place in three stakes starts, and would be perfect in them if not for a freakish performance from fellow runner Call Me Midnight in the G3 Lecomte. But Epicenter’s most recent performance in the G2 Risen Star has made the January defeat a worry of the past, as he took yet another step forward to win convincingly with a 98 BSF. I love him but do have one issue: he’s talented, but he’s not a super horse, and I feel a bounce coming after so many strong showings. A lot of Derby contenders begin to experience setbacks around this time of the year, but he’s still the best runner in this field.
7- Pioneer of Medina
He’s coming along really quickly, but the clock’s running. His fourth-place finish in the G2 Risen Star was competitive, but he never appeared comfortable chasing fellow runner Epicenter and eventually faded a little. The only way he wins is if the favorite regresses, because I don’t see much more room for this colt to move forward.
8- Galt
His strong performance in the G3 Holy Bull appeared to be circumstantial, but his comeback performance in the G2 Fountain of Youth was a complete disaster that bettors should probably toss. He’s definitely a wild card with upside, but I need to see him race soundly first.
9- Rattle N Roll
Anticipation was high when this colt returned in the G2 Fountain of Youth after an electric victory in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity way back in October. But he was noticeably dull in his return race and didn’t show much improvement over his two-year-old form. Maybe he needed a race, as recent workouts demonstrate that he’s sharp. But bettors don’t have much to go on at the moment.
Order: 6 9 2 7
I have a really bad feeling about Epicenter in this one, which is strange because I really like him as a future Derby contender. It just feels like it’s all been going so well lately, and this feels like a likely time for things to stall. The problem is that I can’t find a horse to beat him, so he remains my winner. There are a few runners in this race looking for a second chance, but I think Rattle N Roll is the only one who deserves it. It’s very likely that he needed a race after a five-month layoff last time out, which makes me more confident in a step forward here. Zozos can’t be ignored after his dominant allowance victory last time out, but he still has a lot to prove before I can take him with confidence in a field like this. I really like Pioneer of Medina and think he’s capable of taking a step forward, but I’m worried that the dynamics of the race are against him.