It’s often said that learning the art of handicapping demands a high tuition, and while I’m certain that I’m still reconciling losses made during my elementary school years, I consider my early days in the pastime to be fortuitous at the very least. My scores on some of racing’s biggest events over the years have yielded countless memories and made for a supremely enjoyable pastime.
In 2016, I was confident in Exaggerator’s chances in the slop against Nyquist and was rewarded accordingly. In 2019, my confidence in Sir Winston and Tacitus in the Belmont led to a tidy profit that kept me afloat for the rest of that year. Most Breeders’ Cups are successful ventures in some sense, as well as the Travers and Pegasus World Cup. In fact, there’s only one annual race remaining that continues to elude me.
The Kentucky Derby has become my white whale as a young handicapper, an event that I consistently study for and fail to win. This past year, I managed to narrow down the field to Rock Your World and Medina Spirit, only to choose the wrong path forward. My Derby picks since the age of eight are as follows:
2009- Dunkirk (11th)
2010- Lookin At Lucky (6th)
2011- Mucho Macho Man (3rd)
2012- Creative Cause (5th)
2013- Normandy Invasion (4th)
2014- Wicked Strong (4th)
2015- Frosted (4th)
2016- Exaggerator (2nd)
2017- Classic Empire (4th)
2018- Audible (3rd)
2019- Improbable (4th)
2020- Tiz the Law (2nd)
2021- Rock Your World (17th)
How am I supposed to rectify so many close-cut finishes? Granted, I did choose to begin handicapping just as favorites began to take over the Derby, winning every running from 2013 to 2018. But after so many years, one might think that I would have stumbled on a winner by now. Alas, luck hasn’t been on my side, so I’ve decided to try a different tact.
On the American Road to the Kentucky Derby, there are 24 prep races remaining that will go toward the race’s point standings. Here on Paddy’s Picks, I’m going to attempt to provide analysis for every one of them. Now, though I am a senior in college, I’m still very busy between classes, Observer duties and future planning. It’s possible that I may miss a prep race or two along the way. But the primary goal of this exercise is to be as prepared as possible for this year’s Run for the Roses.
This series begins with the G3 Lecomte Stakes, which doesn’t strike me as an extremely serious prep, but it could still produce a few Derby runners in months to come. Full analysis below:
Fair Grounds, Race 14
Lecomte Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
1- Surfer Dude
Putting aside the five tries in maiden competition, this long shot was defeated soundly by fellow runner Epicenter last time out in the Gun Runner Stakes. Going to the lead early on the outside, he was already well behind the eventual winner by the time they hit the stretch. He will have to take on Epicenter again here, along with some new contenders, and vast improvement will be needed for him to have any chance.
2- Unified Report
This colt is undefeated in three starts, but one has to wonder how stout the competition is at the Louisiana-bred stakes level. The speed figures seem to suggest that he’s a step slower than some of the contenders here, which will make this a serious class test for the debuting three-year-old. He’ll need to take another step forward at a longer, unfamiliar distance.
3- Pappacap
The likely favorite here has not raced since November, when he took place money behind Corniche in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, earning an 88 BSF that stands as the best in this field. The championship race was the culmination of a productive season for the precocious colt that included four straight starts in graded stakes competition, though he always seemed to be a step behind the very best in the California division. I’m not overly fond of his performance in the Breeders’ Cup, in which he seemed to follow the front runner around the track without ever posing a serious challenge. That being said, he is by far the classiest runner in this field and natural improvement with age will likely be enough for him to win. I don’t have to like him in the Derby to appreciate his qualifications here.
4- Trafalgar
He’s done everything right in his past two starts, finishing well to win as the favorite in both maiden and allowance competition. I suppose that those performances have emboldened trainer Al Stall to try him in stakes competition, but I’m not sure I see enough in his past races to endorse him to win here. The horses he has defeated at the lower levels seem to be competitive, but none of them have proven to be world beaters. Meanwhile, his closing style seems to be determined but not necessarily flashy. He may be in the running for a minor purse, but this will be a stiff test.
5- Epicenter
I really like this colt’s last two races, in which he broke his maiden under similarly adverse circumstances. On both occasions, he vied for the early lead with fellow runner Surfer Dude to his inside, set competitive early fractions and had more than enough left to turn him away in the end while holding off late closers. His most recent start in the Gun Runner Stakes was particularly impressive, as he stretched out to a new distance and improved, earning an 87 BSF. There is some more competitive speed in this field, including familiar foe Surfer Dude and Cyberknife, but I don’t think it will be all that difficult for him to rate behind a few horses early.
6- Cyberknife
This speedster was significantly delayed after a disqualification cost him his maiden victory on debut, but he has run twice more since and is now prepared to take on winners. He will need to improve on his last start, in which he appeared to be flagging late but hung on to win by a half length. That being said, it was his first start at today’s distance and he appeared to move exceptionally well on the turn. Significant early speed could come in handy against some of the other similarly speedy contenders as well. He’s an interesting value play with plenty of upside.
7- Blue Kentucky
His performance last time out in the Sugar Bowl Stakes wasn’t offensive, but there are several questions surrounding this colt beyond his most recent start. He’s not too far off the best speed figures in this race, but he does seem to be a step below nonetheless. Moreover, his one start at a route distance was one of his worst performances to date. Those who trust him will be paid well for a reason.
8- Call Me Midnight
If a horse runs a 74 BSF in three straight starts, a bettor can usually infer his most likely performance next time out. Even if this colt does improve, it likely won’t be enough to contend.
9- Presidential
He’s definitely a wild card, and difficult to evaluate. He hasn’t raced since Aug. 31, when he dusted a field at Indiana Grand to break his maiden. The 63 BSF he earned that day no longer represents his best possible performance, as he’s likely matured with age, but it’s hard to figure out where he stands today. A sharp workout tab and Steve Asmussen’s backing demonstrates potential and confidence from one of the best in the game, but a dull start off the layoff is always a possibility as well. I would take a wait-and-see approach, but don’t be shocked either. He’s here for a reason.
Order: 5 6 3 9
Epicenter and Pappacap are the two clearest contenders here and arrive at this start on very different paths. Epicenter has come on recently to become a contender at this level, while Pappacap will come off a layoff with a significant class edge. The odds will ultimately play a part in my bet, but I get the sense that sharper runners may have the advantage in these early preps, which puts Pappacap behind the curve after two months off. I’m betting on a dull performance and will put him third, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he returns stronger than ever either. Cyberknife is my favorite outsider by far, and I’ve even put him ahead of the likely favorite for second, as I feel he has room to improve after finally breaking his maiden. I feel a step forward coming, and the price at 6-1 on the morning line is tempting. Presidential rounds out my top four as a shot in the dark coming off an exceptionally long layoff.