We’re at our last stop, aren’t we? After months of studying in an effort to understand the Kentucky Derby, 20 horses will now converge at Churchill Downs. I’ve made money on a few of them, lost more on others, but it has all led to this. Let’s see if I’ve learned anything.
By now, I’ve waxed poetic about the history, opined about current events in the racing world and given you a little about my personal life in this series along the way. Hell, I told my readers about an ill-fated karaoke experience, if that ever meant anything to you. But as the Derby approaches, this one should come down to the analysis. Let’s get to it.
Churchill Downs, Race 12
Kentucky Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:57 p.m. EST
1- Mo Donegal
There are few runners in the race as determined as this one. He’s an extremely late charger but almost always makes his move when he needs to. Following a stiff start in the G3 Holy Bull, he took a big step forward to win the G2 Wood Memorial with a 96 BSF. With a solid prep under his belt, he can definitely improve again with a solid showing in the Derby. The inside post may ultimately tell the tale, however.
2- Happy Jack
He doesn’t have many excuses. In three stakes starts, he’s lost by 51 combined lengths behind fellow runners Taiba and Messier. Our first toss of the Derby!
3- Epicenter
He’s frustratingly professional at this stage in his career. Since a poor sixth-place finish to begin his career last September, he hasn’t run a step out of place since, winning four out of five while improving in every start. His win in the G2 Louisiana Derby last time out was significant because he did it without getting the lead, settling nicely into third and pulling away to earn a 102 BSF, nearly unrivaled by any horse in this field at a route distance. He’s not the flashiest and it’s tempting to bet against him, but I’m finding it very difficult to keep him out of my top four.
4- Summer Is Tomorrow
He’s really quick, and that means something when you’re dealing with a long shot. With a clean start, he’s going to be on the lead or near it, and that was almost enough last time out in the G2 UAE Derby. But fellow runner Crown Pride proved to be too much that day, which means he’ll have to improve dramatically or get luckier this time around. I don’t see a convincing case for improvement, and other front runners in the race are unlikely to give him much room early.
5- Smile Happy
I’ve been betting against him as the favorite all year and have been doing very well. He hasn’t done anything wrong, finishing second in both the G1 Blue Grass and G2 Risen Star. Those two losses also came against fellow runners Zandon and Epicenter, the two favorites in this race. They were convincing losses though, and the lack of any improvement between February and April is concerning. Maybe he’s in line for a minor prize.
6- Messier
These former Baffert runners in the Derby are bad for the sport, but this colt is dangerous as hell here. Following a dominant victory in the G3 Robert B. Lewis, he returned in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and had excuses to finish second. Coming off a two-month layoff and pressing Forbidden Kingdom the whole way, he still managed to take the lead in the stretch but was overtaken by fellow runner Taiba in the closing stages. It was a defeat, but it was useful too, as he should be able to build on it in his second start off the break. If he improves at all, he’s going to be a serious problem.
7- Crown Pride (Jpn)
At a price, I’m interested. After two very successful starts in Japan at two and a dud to begin his three-year-old season, this colt traveled to Dubai for the G2 UAE Derby and impressed. Traveling wide around both turns, he moved well to catch fellow runner Summer Is Tomorrow loose on the lead and won commandingly. Then, in his final workout at Churchill before this race, he ran a bullet going 46 ⅖ seconds over four furlongs, turning a few heads in the process. Japanese runners have done very well in the U.S. recently, and it seems like this runner can bring it. He’s squarely in the mix.
8- Charge It
He’s short on experience, but there’s a ton of upside here. After a dominant maiden win in February, he took a huge step up in the G1 Florida Derby but handled himself well. When a very bad start prevented him from going to the lead that day, he rated fairly well and managed to take second behind fellow runner White Abarrio. If he wasn’t green in the stretch, it’s possible that he could have won the event. This is his second start off a reasonable layoff too. I’m not totally sold, but there’s definitely something to go on.
9- Tiz the Bomb
There are so many questions for him to answer. After a successful two-year-old campaign which primarily took place on turf, she won twice in her three-year-old season on the synthetic track. He got the points necessary to make the Derby, but his only attempt on dirt this season was a complete disaster. He has something to prove, and that’s never a good sign in the Derby.
10- Zandon
The ability is abundantly clear, but it’s taken a while for him to truly discover his potential at this level. After a tough defeat to fellow runner Mo Donegal in the G2 Remsen back in December, he returned in February and turned in an improved but dull effort in the G2 Risen Star. The G1 Blue Grass was his coming out party though, a race in which he flew home from the back of the pack to win easily with a 98 BSF. There’s a lot of buzz around him, to the point that he actually nabbed favoritism from fellow runner Epicenter. He needs racing luck to have a chance as a deep closer though, and luck is hard to find in a 20-horse field.
11- Pioneer of Medina
The fact that he’s coming along nicely as a three-year-old is being completely ignored in this race because he has finished behind three fellow runners in this race in his last two starts. This apparent ignorance of his ability may be warranted, but it’s also undeniable that he probably would have won more this year if he didn’t have to race against Epicenter in his only two preps for the Derby. The 96 BSF he earned to finish third in the G2 Louisiana Derby is theoretically on par with prep winners like Mo Donegal and White Abarrio, and exceeds victories by Tiz the Bomb and Cyberknife. To be clear, I’m avoiding him because I hate his running style (intent on the lead while lacking serious speed) for this particular race, but there are some things to think about.
12- Taiba
Here’s your wild card. If he beats me, he beats me, but I just can’t pull the trigger. I have reasons beyond the obvious inexperience. When he won the G1 Santa Anita Derby, he was overcoming his own challenges stretching out dramatically in distance. But fellow runner Messier was coming off a two-month layoff, and the race set up so that Taiba was stalking a duel between his stablemate and formidable runner Forbidden Kingdom. It’s impressive that he was good enough to pick up the pieces after that speed duel, but the performance also fails to convince me that he’s the best runner in this race. Beyond that, he doesn’t have much else to show me, and that’s the crux of the issue. No horse has ever won the Derby in their third start.
13- Simplification
He was my favorite horse in Florida, but he was clearly second best by the beginning of April. After a forgivable defeat in the G3 Holy Bull and decisive win in the G2 Fountain of Youth, this colt got caught in a pace duel in the G1 Florida Derby and had nothing left for fellow runner White Abarrio in the late stages. In seven starts, this runner has never left Gulfstream and doesn’t really seem like a top choice here.
14- Barber Road
He always tries, and there’s something to be said for that. Since his stakes debut in November 2021, this runner has finished second in all five of his starts except one, a third-place finish in the G2 Rebel that he lost by a half-length. His speed figures are light, but it seems as though he does whatever is necessary to make a bid without ever vying for the top position. Does that spell Derby triumph?
15- White Abarrio
Though he feels like a fixture in the three-year-old racing scene, this runner really only has two starts in 2022. The good thing is that they’re both brilliant and came off of layoffs. The fact that he managed to win the G3 Holy Bull and G1 Florida Derby with little to no continuity between is a testament to his ability to fire fresh. The Kentucky Derby will finally provide an opportunity for him to string two races together without a layoff, though that doesn’t always lead to improvement for a last-time-out winner. His one start at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old is also the only loss of his career.
16- Cyberknife
He wasn’t ready for stakes competition in January when Brad Cox tried entering him in the G3 Lecomte, but he sure was ready in April when he doubled down in the G1 Arkansas Derby. In a very nice performance to defeat fellow runner Barber Road and recent G1 Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath, he only received a 92 BSF but showed solid ability in any case. With the strength of the Arkansas Derby preps in question, the tote board may tell the tale here.
17- Classic Causeway
After a few key victories in Tampa, this colt showed that he wasn’t quite ready for the big leagues when he finished dead last in the G1 Florida Derby. The defeat was convincing enough for trainer Brian Lynch to temporarily pull him from the Derby, only to put him back in at the last minute. Then he drew the 17-post, the only post in the race that has never produced a winner.
18- Tawny Port
This colt plugged his way into the Derby with a victory in the G3 Lexington following solid efforts in the G2 Risen Star and G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. The win in the Lexington also convinced trainer Brad Cox that he had enough dirt form to compete in the Derby, even though the competition that day was significantly worse. He’s a long shot with a tough post.
19- Zozos
This colt had a very chance in this race following a runner-up finish behind Epicenter in the G2 Louisiana Derby. But in only his fourth start, he will now have to deal with the 19-post, and his competing speed will only help him so much as others to his inside take up spots on the rail. The challenges are clear for this precocious runner.
20- Ethereal Road (SCRATCHED)
Ethereal Road has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby. His chances are minimal.
Also-Eligibles:
21- Rich Strike
This colt sneaks into the Derby now that Ethereal Road is scratched, but the problems are obvious. He hasn’t won since September 2021 and lost by nearly six lengths in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks last time out. The far outside post makes it nearly impossible.
22- Rattle N Roll (SCRATCHED)
Rattle N Roll has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby.
Order: 6 8 3 1 7
This doesn’t feel great in the grand scheme of things, but Messier simply makes too much sense on paper to keep out of my top spot. The colt ran too well in the G1 Santa Anita Derby despite obvious setbacks, and the Derby seems to be a solid opportunity for him to round into form, just as the late Medina Spirit did last year. He’s the pick as far as I’m concerned.
Because putting the favorite second is lame, I’m going to consider Charge It as my runner-up candidate at a price. I really appreciated his runner-up performance in the G1 Florida Derby and see a lot of room for improvement as he prepares for the biggest start of his brief career. Picking between the two favorites in the race, I have to consider Epicenter as the likeliest winner here. Similarly to last year’s favorite Essential Quality, he’s too solid to ignore completely, and he should be close no matter what. At 7-2 though, it seems prudent to try to find a better price.
Mo Donegal rounds out my top four as an extremely versatile, determined runner that seems to make the most of any race he’s in. The post may hinder him in some sense, but there are ways for him to make the most of it too. If it weren’t for the likely muddy track, Crown Pride would probably appear in my top four, but there are signs indicating that he isn’t quite as strong after a storm.