I’ll be straightforward with readers; this year’s running of the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks is not a useful prep race for the Kentucky Derby. The winner may appear in the race, but that horse will almost certainly be up against it in their next start.
The difficulty of handicapping a race like this only makes its uselessness all the more frustrating. Deliberating between horses running on three different surfaces at a number of different tracks makes it more of a dartboard race than anything else. I’ve made conclusions where I can, but you’ll all have to give me a little rope on this one. Let’s get into it.
Turfway Park, Race 12
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Synthetic Track
Post Time: 6:23 p.m. EST
1- Royal Spirit
I don’t think he’s a contender? It’s extremely difficult to compare turf, synthetic and dirt ability, but through five starts on turf, this colt seems to be a half step slow.
2- Stolen Base
In the Battaglia Memorial last time out, he was part of a late-charging stampede of closers and nearly pulled it off against fellow runner Tiz the Bomb. His form has been competitive recently, but it’s concerning that he hasn’t won a race since his debut last July.
3- Cabo Spirit
After a few flashy efforts on turf in California, trainer George Papaprodromou tried to switch him to dirt. Since then, he’s finished second by 15 lengths in the G3 Robert B. Lewis and fifth by 20 ¼ lengths in the G2 San Felipe. He now switches surfaces again and drops steeply in class, but I have to wonder if any of it will lead to improvement.
4- Rich Strike
He was one of the deepest closers in a running of the Battaglia Memorial that was full of them. Given the friendly track conditions that day though, I would’ve liked to see better than a fourth-place finish.
5- Tawny Port
I’m not uninterested. In the G2 Risen Star last time out, I hated him along with everyone else, but this feels like a much more appropriate spot. He’s 2-for-2 on synthetic tracks and seemed to take a big step forward against stakes competition last time out. It’s encouraging that Brad Cox thought highly enough to give him a chance in that spot too. Maybe everything’s coming together.
6- Great Escape
I don’t like him. His only start this year was against optional claiming competition and he couldn’t pick up the victory despite securing an uncontested early lead.
7- Tiz the Bomb
I can see why he’s the favorite, but I see reasons to play against him too. He didn’t do anything special as a closer in the Battaglia Memorial and very nearly lost the race to lesser competition. He’s still a Breeders’ Cup runner-up with plenty of promising turf form, but he’s a vulnerable favorite based on his recent form.
8- Red Run
Here’s a shocking statistic: Steve Asmussen wins with 2% of synthetic runners. That’s an abysmal strike rate for a trainer who does everything well, and it leads me to question this runner’s chances. He only has one solid race to go on, an ungraded stakes race on the turf at Sam Houston that he won by a half-length. The 86 BSF seems a little suspect with everything else to consider and he hasn’t raced since January.
9- Dowagiac Chief
The loss against Red Run two back looks pretty bad, but I like his most recent effort at Fair Grounds in the Black Gold Stakes. He took full advantage of a clear early lead and weak field, dominating the race to win by five lengths. I don’t know how useful an 88 BSF on turf can be on a synthetic track, but it’s better than nothing. Maybe he’s a contender?
10- Optigogo
Absolutely not.
11- Constitutionlawyer
It turns out that the 85 BSF this colt earned in his maiden win at Aqueduct was a bit of an illusion. But the 25 BSF he earned in a humiliating defeat in the G3 Withers doesn’t really make sense either. He’s a confusing option here and I don’t trust him.
12- Blackadder (SCRATCHED)
In no world should this colt be 15-1 on the morning line. That’s insane. His performance in the El Camino Real Derby was more impressive visually than fellow runner Tiz the Bomb’s victory in the Battaglia Memorial, and Mackinnon was a much more formidable foe at Golden Gate than any runner in this field. If Bob Baffert was still training this runner, I assume there would be more enthusiasm on the morning line. As someone who’s unfamiliar with Turfway Park, maybe the far outside post means death at this distance. Maybe the oddsmaker is considering the fact that Rodolphe Brisset is also considering him for the Blue Grass Stakes next weekend, though that shouldn’t impact his virtual chances in this race. Barring those two circumstances, I can’t understand what the oddsmaker was looking at when he made this colt the underdog.
13- Swing Shift (ALSO ELIGIBLE)
He’s probably better off in the stable.
Order: 5 12 7 3
(Update: The 12, Blackadder, has been scratched. He will run in the Blue Grass Stakes next weekend.)
I’m not totally sure of what I’m looking at, but one horse caught my eye and I’m going with it. Brad Cox is clearly very fond of Tawny Port and seems to be actively finding spots for him to win. The combination of proven synthetic form and solid improvement against better competition on dirt seems very encouraging to me. This feels like the spot. Blackadder may not make it into this field, as his trainer is also considering him for the Blue Grass next weekend. But if he makes it into this field, he’ll be extremely dangerous. Tiz the Bomb is clearly a talented runner, but I believe he’s a very weak favorite that bettors should seriously consider fading, Cabo Spirit is always in with a chance and is taking a serious drop in class here.