Those who have known about Holy Bull since the 1990s will have to forgive me for discovering him during the pandemic. I knew his name before then, of course, but I didn’t look into his career in earnest until I literally had all the time in the world. When I watched his races, I saw a prototype for racing as I understand it today. I was amazed.
Before Mike Smith was a jockey to the stars, he was the jockey to this star, a powerful speedball that dared the competition to catch him. His Travers win was one of the gutsiest a racing fan could ever hope for, and Durkin’s call that day could not have been improved upon by any writer. But there were flaws in the Bull’s career too.
When he was on, he was unbeatable, but he showed nothing in the 1994 Kentucky Derby and even less in the Fountain of Youth earlier in the year. He didn’t get a hero’s exit from the sport, as he was pulled up in the 1995 Donn Handicap and retired. The winner of that race was late-blooming four-year-old Cigar, who went on to make some history of his own.
In many ways, Holy Bull felt more unstable than any other horse I’ve ever watched, like an isotope breaking down in real time. It never looked effortless for him, even if it was; he always seemed to be running with his hair on fire. When it worked, as it did in 13 of 16 starts, the result was devastating, and when it didn’t, he melted down.
His successors seemed to improve on his model; the volatile speedsters have become more stable at the higher levels. Ghostzapper was untouchable in the early 2000s, and American Pharoah, Authentic, Charlatan and others have recently made early speed look effortless under Bob Baffert’s… tutelage. But one could argue that none of these front-running champions have been as exciting to watch as Holy Bull. The Florida-bred deserves this namesake Derby prep race and a whole lot more in this sport.
Gulfstream, Race 11
Holy Bull Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:10 p.m. EST
1- Galt
Third time was the try in December, but his maiden victory at Gulfstream doesn’t seem that impressive in comparison to others’ recent races in this field. He will have to improve dramatically.
2- Mo Donegal
He’s one of the most solid runners on the Derby trail at the moment, even if the New York crop is probably the weakest in the country this year. After a maiden win at Belmont in October, Todd Pletcher placed him ambitiously in the G2 Remsen, where he took another step forward to nail formidable foe Zandon at the wire in a photo. The 90 BSF he earned that day is tied for the best in the field, which makes him an obvious contender. The distance is also well within his range, which makes him even safer.
3- Eloquist
This colt has regressed in three straight races, which makes his entry here somewhat puzzling. After a bad defeat in an allowance race at Gulfstream last time out, trainer Robert Reid must be expecting a rebound. I’ll let him figure things out on his own time.
4- Simplification
He’s not the favorite, but I think it’s his race to lose. The game plan is clear; this colt’s going to bolt out of the gate and dare the field to run him down. Against a much weaker field in the Mucho Macho Man, no horse was up to the challenge and he scampered away to a four-length win and 90 BSF. His lead was uncontested that day but he will likely face similarly stress-free conditions here in the early going. I don’t think an extra sixteenth of a mile will make much of a difference, so another contender truly will have to catch him.
5- Cajun’s Magic
Earning an 89 BSF as a juvenile in September is no small feat, which makes this gelding a fascinating wild card coming off of a four-month layoff. He lost that restricted stakes race at Gulfstream but did more than enough to make a statement with a monster speed figure. The validity of that speed figure is questionable, of course, as the race was hand-timed and neither of the top two has raced since, but even bettors who trust it should be more worried about the layoff. He may be even faster now, but he could also be dull after time off. Buyer beware.
6- Tiz The Bomb
Two wild cards in a row? I can get behind it, but he’s definitely unpredictable in a different way. As the runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, it’s completely unclear if that form can transfer to the dirt at the same level. I can’t analyze much here in terms of racing; he has been brilliant on the turf in three starts and broke his maiden easily in one of two dirt tries. Ken McPeek isn’t very successful with horses switching surfaces, but putting a bonafide turf star on the Derby trail has worked in the past. At this point in the season, it’s really a matter of belief for handicappers.
7- Spin Wheel
He won stylishly to break his maiden by a nose in November, but there are issues. The 65 BSF he earned that day was a little weak and the race seemed to set up well for his late running style. He could improve, but I doubt it’s enough.
8- White Abarrio
He was a consistent runner as a two-year-old, earning three speed figures in the low 80s in three starts. In a maiden and allowance race, that was more than enough to win going away, but in a trip to Churchill for the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, he had to settle for a distant third. He’s been working phenomenally well lately and is back at his home track, which could suggest improvement in his three-year-old debut. I think a minor prize and possibly more is in play.
9- Giant Game
The track report derisively claims that he hung in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but I love his performance that day. In a race which Corniche seemed to win after a quarter mile by securing an easy early lead, this colt was the only one to give him any sort of challenge. He was riding to win, and that strategy cost him a place finish to Pappacap, who sat behind Corniche for the entire race. He has had some great workouts at Gulfstream in recent weeks and seems to be well-prepared for his three-year-old debut. I’m a fan.
Order: 4 9 2 6
I don’t think they’re catching him. There are three top contenders in this race and I like all of them, but Simplification has a distinct pace advantage in this particular race. He’s going to get the lead to himself unless someone goes out of their way to challenge him early, and he’s proven that he can do a lot with an easy lead. Giant Game is probably my favorite horse in the race, and I also think he has strong prospects going forward. But he is coming off a long layoff, has only run against winners once and will have to close against lone speed.
Mo Donegal is also a promising runner going forward, but will face many of the same challenges as Giant Game in this particular start. If either one of them catches Simplification, they will immediately become one of the strongest Derby contenders in the crop. Tiz the Bomb could also enter that conversation with a strong start on dirt, but I’d like to see it first.