Though the New York contingent is stepping up its game, the 2022 running of the Fountain of Youth is still probably the most competitive Derby prep this weekend. There are plenty of runners coming out of allowance competition while the others are either coming off of long layoffs or recovering from them. There’s a lot to like here.
As a prep to the Florida Derby, this is a very helpful race, but since 2000, only one winner of the Fountain of Youth has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby (Orb in 2013). I’m not sure if the winner of this year’s Derby is in these ranks, but they won’t get there if they don’t get out of the starting gate in March.
Gulfstream, Race 12
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:42 p.m. EST
1- Markhamian
Though it was on the slower side, I don’t mind his victory in the Pasco last time out, as he dueled the entire way and won a hard-fought battle in the stretch. That being said, he seemed to win with a rail and speed advantage over the rest of the field, which indicates that he’s nearing his best possible performance. He just seems a tad slow.
2- Simplification
I loved him last time in the G3 Holy Bull, and I love him even more now after that defeat. Though he lost me a few dollars after blowing the start and failing to get the lead, he also proved that he has heart as well as speed. After visibly hesitating in the starting gate and shuffling back in the pack, he ran very gamely to finish second ahead of fellow runner Mo Donegal. For him to do so well with a running style that is unfamiliar to him is an admirable feat. He has a fan, though I would like to see him get back to the front early this time around.
3- Howling Time
This runner was scheduled to enter the Sam F. Davis but was scratched. That was a less competitive field that may have made him a more attractive option that he is here. As I mentioned then, I can’t come up with an excuse for his regression in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club last time out. The Form says that the race favored closers, but I think I disagree with that assessment. He’s had some killer workouts at Gulfstream recently though, so maybe a rebound is possible.
4- In Due Time
In his second start off a long break, this colt took a massive step forward in an optional claiming event last month. Though he benefited from an absolutely perfect trip, he still did everything right in the 5 ¾-length victory to earn a spot in this field. He’s firmly in exotics consideration.
5- Dean Delivers
There’s a bit of a problem here. In his last three starts, this gelding has suffered very game defeats, losing by no more than a half-length but nevertheless finishing second each time. In the G3 Swale last time out, he challenged the front runner but didn’t actually pass him until he himself was passed, at which point he ran with the new leader to the wire. Even if the speed figures were a little stronger, he’s still a difficult runner to support on top.
6- Rattle N Roll
This is an interesting puzzle because this runner generated a significant amount of buzz when he won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity way back in October. The way that he won was visually stunning, as he circled the entire field to win by daylight with an 81 BSF that was nearly competitive among the top juveniles at the time. The problem is that he hasn’t raced since, and there’s no real way to know how much he has improved. A pair of phenomenal workouts at Gulfstream recently seem to aid his cause, however, and he’s always seemed pointed toward Derby preps based on his precocious form. Don’t be surprised.
7- A.P.’s Secret
I don’t hate him as a runner in isolation; his win last time out in allowance competition was solid, but it wasn’t anything special. He needs to improve.
8- Emmanuel
I’m 90% sure I’m using the phrase “paper tiger” correctly when referring to this colt. The 89 BSF he earned last time out in allowance competition was obviously impressive and makes him a contender here. But if he needs an early lead and a 25-second opening quarter to perform at this level, then he’ll never manage to compete in a real horse race. I’m betting against him enthusiastically. If he beats me, I can live with it. If a favorite still has to prove something, then it’s probably best to go against them.
9- High Oak
He was a rising star in the New York juvenile scene over the summer, but he followed up an impressive showing in the G2 Saratoga Special with a very poor performance in the G1 Hopeful. He hasn’t raced since September. Bettors that feel like trusting him may be rewarded, but this field is too stiff for me to take a flyer.
10- Giant Game (SCRATCHED)
I still like his performance in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but something clearly went wrong in the G3 Holy Bull last time. He didn’t show anything in a 24-length defeat behind fellow runners Simplification and Mo Donegal, which explains his long odds today. I don’t want to get burned after supporting him in the past, but I can’t really trust him.
11- O Captain
In his books, Andy Beyer often talks about a concept called “the logic of the illogic,” which states that every horse in a race is entered for a reason, and the reasons that bettors don’t understand are sometimes the most dangerous. On paper, this colt doesn’t make any sense. In no world does he belong in these ranks. But trainer Gustavo Delgado is no joke, and he is here for some reason. Let’s see.
12- Mo Donegal (SCRATCHED)
I’m very happy that this runner is scratched, because I like him too much at this point to evaluate him clearly. Hopefully he’s healthy and makes an appearance in another prep soon, at which point I can gush about him. Stay tuned.
13- Galt
When fellow runner Simplification blew the start in the G3 Holy Bull, this runner benefited the most by taking an easy early lead. The 19-1 shot failed to convert and finished fourth. I doubt he gets such a golden opportunity again.
Order: 2 6 4 8
I might be way off underneath, but my top choice is very clear. With Mo Donegal out of the race, Simplification becomes an obvious favorite that I happen to love. He has shown a ton of ability and figures to improve on his past performances with a cleaner trip. Rattle N Roll is worth a shot after an impressive victory at Keeneland and some time off. In Due Time seemed to earn the 92 BSF he received against an allowance field last time out and could easily repeat it with a clean trip. Emmanuel is a very easy favorite for me to go against, but he could very well stick around for a minor prize.