Racing fans cannot reach the first Saturday in May without first going through the first Saturday in April. Later today, three Kentucky Derby preps will be contested in three different states within the span of one hour.
In this trio of future-defining contests, the G1 Florida Derby is the most competitive, with talented runners from Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream converging in the state’s biggest race for three-year-olds. If you can’t tell, it’s an exciting day for me.
This year’s running of the Florida Derby seems to come down to a pair of familiar foes, White Abarrio and Simplification. Though the two squared off in the G3 Holy Bull back in February, Simplification suffered a poor start that day and could only rally for second as White Abarrio cruised to an easy victory. Simplification came back with a strong victory in the G2 Fountain of Youth, but White Abarrio has not raced since.
With a trip to Kentucky on the line (though both runners will likely qualify), the rematch between these two and a host of outside challengers may hint at the drama to come this season.
Gulfstream, Race 14
Florida Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:38 p.m. EST
1- Strike Hard
He’s a fighter, but I would’ve liked to see more from him in the G3 Sam F. Davis last time out. He needs to improve.
2- Classic Causeway
Beating up on the Tampa Bay Derby prep fields doesn’t seem to suggest much with everyone meeting at Gulfstream. But he has proven to be much, much better than those fields and certainly deserves a spot in this one. The main problem is that his speed figures aren’t where they need to be at this point in his three-year-old season, and he apparently took a step back in form when winning the G2 Tampa Bay Derby last time out. 7-2 on the morning line is asking a lot.
3- Simplification
I loved him in the G2 Fountain of Youth and he delivered for me with an impressive performance from off the pace. His improvement that day tempts me to support him again, but there are a few others in here to worry about. Fellow runner White Abarrio is the main threat as the only colt to defeat him this year in the G3 Holy Bull, though he did take advantage of Simplification’s poor start that day. I still have to appreciate him as a very serious contender.
4- King of Truth
I don’t appreciate him as a very serious contender. He hasn’t won a race since September and has never earned a speed figure higher than 58 on dirt.
5- Pappacap
I’ve labeled this colt as an underachieving loser in previous starts, and he’s proven me right so far. He’s definitely not as bad as that last start in the G2 Risen Star though.
6- Charge It
The 93 BSF he earned against maiden special weight competition last time out makes him a tempting option here. But it’s worth noting that he earned that figure with soft fractions on the front end against a comparatively weaker field, and he still failed to match the figures set by fellow runners Simplification and White Abarrio in bigger races. He’s probably going to take too much money.
7- White Abarrio
It’s always dangerous to back a horse after one good race and the two-month layoff is concerning, but he appears to be the real deal. His workouts have been brilliant as of late, and while his win in the G3 Holy Bull was aided by Simplification’s poor start, he may have simply been the best horse that day regardless. He probably deserves favoritism.
8- Cajun’s Magic
He hasn’t won a race since July and proved slow in the G3 Holy Bull two months ago. That being said, that race did come after five months on the shelf and some ability as a two-year-old may suggest improvement. He’s an upset contender, but I would’ve liked to see him run in March to avoid another layoff.
9- O Captain
An unlikely show finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth also seems to be his very best at the moment, and he still finished 4 ½ lengths behind fellow runner Simplification. Another minor prize is possible, however.
10- Clapton
It’s hard to see a Florida-statebred allowance runner advancing to these ranks cleanly.
11- Steal Sunshine
He hasn’t run poorly in optional claiming competition, but he hasn’t won in those ranks either. Now trainer Robert Dibona expects him to take on graded stakes contenders in the far outside post position.
Order: 3 7 8 2
At the end of the day, Simplification hasn’t done anything egregious enough for me to rein in my adoration. I’ve consistently liked his form in two straight starts and he’s proven me right with two stellar performances. He’ll be a dependable win contender for me here as well. White Abarrio is obviously a contender and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won off another layoff, but I’m willing to give Simplification another chance to take him on with what should hopefully be a cleaner start than the one he had in the G3 Holy Bull. There’s something about Cajun’s Magic that’s rubbing me the right way at the moment. He didn’t necessarily run poorly in the G3 Holy Bull after five months off, and while another layoff could hurt his chances, it could also lead to a step forward. Classic Causeway rounds out my top four as a solid contender that may simply be a step slow.