It’s not our final destination in Kentucky, but it feels good to finally make it into the Bluegrass State after a thrilling, wide open Derby prep season. The Blue Grass has never been my favorite of the Derby preps, but there’s always someone worth keeping an eye on.
In 2020, it was the filly Swiss Skydiver, who lost to Art Collector in the Blue Grass before defeating Horse of the Year Authentic in the Preakness. Last year, Essential Quality won the race before taking the Belmont, Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes later in the season.
This year, handicappers are likely to struggle deciphering the field, which includes a number of established runners and rising stars. A big price seems likelier than not, but finding it may prove difficult. The biggest scores always require some work though, don’t they?
Keeneland, Race 9
Blue Grass Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:10 p.m. EST
1- Commandperformance
It was acceptable for him to be a maiden when he was the second choice in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It’s no longer acceptable for him to be a maiden in April, however. Failing to defeat fellow runner Fenwick in a maiden special weight in Tampa at 1-20 odds in his only start of the year is a serious mark against him.
2- Fenwick
Speak of the devil! We were just speaking about you, sir. I can’t see him replicating that maiden-breaking performance at Tampa Bay Downs when everything went his way, and even under those conditions, he was still a step slow in comparison to others in this field.
3- Trademark
Two uninspiring stakes starts at Tampa Bay Downs are enough for me to rule this runner out for the time being.
4- Zandon
I don’t mind his performance in the G2 Risen Star, where he hopped at the start but closed well to finish third. I like his performance in the G2 Remsen even better, when he took Mo Donegal to the limit and nearly pulled off the stretch duel victory. He’s squarely in the mix here.
5- Volcanic
I can see multiple reasons for this colt to improve at a price. He’s coming along slowly and steadily, and a professional start in the G3 Sam F. Davis seems like a good point to jump off from. He also defeated Charge It in his maiden victory, a runner that has since improved significantly in stakes competition.
6- Emmanuel
He seems a little overbet on the morning line, but I get it. The potential is obvious, as he’s only made three starts and seems well in line to take a step forward at some point. He took a lot of money in the G2 Fountain of Youth but got caught wide and weakened in the stretch. He’s dangerous with a cleaner trip.
7- Golden Glider
I liked him in the Tampa Bay preps, but I don’t like him as much here. The waters are getting deeper and he seems to be the same horse.
8- Ethereal Road
He was really, really gutsy in the G2 Rebel and deserves credit for essentially winning the race. With Kavod well in sight, he did everything he could to move past him in the stretch and succeeded. After all that, he got nailed at the wire by long shot Un Ojo, who managed a dream trip on the rail while staying out of Ethereal Road’s eye line. It happens. The speed figures aren’t where they should be, but he has a ton of heart and improvement seems likely.
9- Rattle N Roll
His 3YO campaign hasn’t gone to plan in two starts, but at least he’s moving in the right direction. He faced a much tougher field in the G2 Louisiana Derby than the one he faces here, and his most recent speed figure is nearly enough to get him in the mix. The talent has always been there, but he still has to put all the pieces together.
10- Smile Happy
The fact that finishing second to Epicenter makes him the favorite here really speaks to the talent of Epicenter more than anything else. I’m not personally a fan of him, which makes it tempting to take a stab against him on top, but I can easily see him winning too.
11- Blackadder
I thought he was massively underbet when he was entered in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks last weekend. I think he’s being properly evaluated in this race, however.
12- Grantham
He’s actually heading in the right direction, but his connections are asking a lot of him here. Starting from the outside post with a lot of work to do anyway makes this a tall order.
Order: 6 4 8 10
There’s so much going on in this race, which makes picking four virtually impossible. Multiple runners feel like they’re ready to take a step forward while the more obvious runners seem a little underwhelming. Emmanuel stands out as a lightly raced runner who’s shown a lot in a short amount of time. I’ll take a shot with him on top. Zandon should improve in his second start off the layoff after a tough trip in the G2 Risen Star last time out. Ethereal Road is a long shot worthy of a side bet in my opinion based on his grit alone. Smile Happy rounds out the top four as a beatable favorite.