Road to the Derby: Arkansas Derby Analysis

Sometimes, weak fields lead to interesting circumstances in horse racing. Of the Derby prep contingents this year, runners in Arkansas seem to be especially disappointing. But with 100 points going to the winner of the 2022 Arkansas Derby regardless of the field’s strength, multiple outsiders seem to be taking advantage of the situation.

In a historic stakes race previously won by the likes of American Pharoah and Charlatan, this year’s Arkansas Derby may come down to a California shipper, a filly and a precocious allowance runner. All three seem to have an edge on the runners that have been working toward this race for months, and may have also found a back door to Kentucky in the process. Let’s take a look.

Oaklawn, Race 12

Arkansas Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

Post Time: 7:35 p.m. EST

1- Kavod

He’s really getting used to fourth, isn’t he? In three straight starts, this colt has managed to contend without breaking into the top three. There’s very little to suggest he can win.

2- Chasing Time

Steve Asmussen was obviously enthusiastic when he entered this colt in the G2 Rebel after a dominant allowance victory. Though he was a little flat in his stakes debut, he never lost touch with the front either in a fifth-place finish. His main problem is going to be a step up in competition as some outsiders try to take advantage of weaker Arkansas runners.

3- Barber Road

He’s such an also-ran that it’s infuriating. In four straight stakes attempts, he’s come dangerously close to winning from out of the clouds but has come up just short to four different winners. At some point, a bettor has to start questioning the horse’s will to win.

4- Doppelganger

Don’t be deceived; Tim Yakteen isn’t training this horse alone. The former assistant of Bob Baffert is simply taking his horses so that they can earn points toward the Kentucky Derby. It’s nonsense, but it’s also not the horse’s fault. He’s been running extremely well in defeat to Forbidden Kingdom in California as of late, and getting away from that formidable foe should serve this colt well. Arkansas is a very soft spot for him to land this year, and a win is very possible. It’s interesting to note, however, that Flavien Prat leaves to ride fellow runner We the People.

5- Un Ojo

I keep saying that this gelding is too slow and he keeps proving me wrong. I’m going to keep saying it though, because he simply doesn’t make sense on paper. He’s in line for a minor prize and little else.

6- Secret Oath

Echo Zulu might have some company in the filly division, because this gal’s the real deal. In the Martha Washington and G3 Honeybee, Secret Oath has shown a brilliant turn of foot to win by daylight over some very solid fillies. She’s also demonstrated courage going in between horses, which is an extremely valuable asset at a young age. Her speed figures are plainly superior to every male runner in this contest, which makes her response to male competition one of the few unknown variables. If she’s going to Churchill next month, what’s her race?

7- Ben Diesel

He’s a mainstay in the Arkansas three-year-old division this year, and it looks like that puts him at a disadvantage.

8- Cyberknife

I like that he rebounded from a setback in the G3 Lecomte with a nice allowance win last time out. But I don’t know if he was ready for stakes competition back in January and I’m still not convinced in April.

9- We The People

He hasn’t been challenged in two starts at lower levels, which makes it difficult to find his ceiling in a race against better competition. It’s worth noting that his first race against winners last time out could not have gone better, as he dueled through very soft fractions against a weak field and improved to earn an 89 BSF. That performance puts him squarely in the running here, and though there are issues, I’m not ruling out a win.

Order: 6 9 4 3

There are three notable outsiders in this field and I like all three of them, but Secret Oath genuinely appears to be a step above the rest. The filly has been stunning this year against other females, and she’s clearly demonstrated that she belongs in any race in this year’s three-year-old division. I’m going to trust the speed figures and hope for further improvement. We the People appears to be a very dangerous newcomer to these ranks, but I need to see a little more before I trust him in such a big spot.

Doppelganger is a serious threat from California and could very well win this race. Maybe I’m betting with my heart a little, but few could deny that a filly taking on the boys is more entertaining than Bob Baffert trying to finagle his way out of banishment. Barber Road is the best of the rest in a very weak Arkansas contingent this year.