A job that I prepared to take on last night was delayed after I crashed, but the Race of the Day for July 28 is finally here! The choices today were a little sparse, as the only stakes race at Saratoga today is the Birdstone, a marathon on dirt dominated by Fearless and Lone Rock. Rather than state the obvious, I decided to look further down the card, and I’ve landed on a race I like.
This allowance optional claiming field is essentially in the same division as many of the runners who competed in the Colonial Cup, yesterday’s Race of the Day. I promise to branch out soon, but these turf races are very enjoyable to handicap and they’re sure to come up again. I hope readers are with me.
Saratoga, Race 9
$62,000 Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 5:39 p.m. EST
1- Parsimony (MTO)
If the rain takes this race off the turf, then this horse has a solid chance. But this wouldn’t be the Race of the Day if it was on dirt.
1A- Pioneer Spirit (MTO)
I’m not a broken record. Put the pieces together yourself.
2- Cold Hard Cash
His first start of 2022 was in a merry-go-round race at Belmont, so his third-place finish that day is really only useful as a prep. That’s fine because Linda Rice rarely fires her horses fresh off layoffs anyway, and it appears that this race has been the target all along. The gelding did very well stretching out in distance late last year, making him an interesting candidate for improvement. My only concern is that the inner turf has been taxing for horses near the pace in recent days.
3- Mud Pie
All the deep closers finished well in his first race this year at Churchill Downs, but he did outfinish all of them despite running at a shorter distance. Rusty Arnold’s goal that day wasn’t necessarily to win but to prepare him for races like this one, and he seems to be in exceptional form. My only issue is that his only attempt at Saratoga last year was his worst of 2021 by a decent margin.
4- Reigning Spirit
Earlier this year, this runner still would’ve been a contender in this race, but he’s one of the favorites now based on his performance in the G3 Louisville last time out in May. At 62-1, he closed very well and nearly caught winner Cellist but settled for a clear second-place finish ahead of a crowded field. He hasn’t raced since and Cellist came back yesterday with a flat performance in the Colonial Cup, but none of that negates his status as a contender here.
5- Balthus (Ire)
In a shocking turn of events, this Chad Brown runner has been moving in the right direction lately. After a poor three-year-old campaign, he has made two straight dominant starts at lower levels that have also come with natural improvement. The 92 BSF he earned last time out is certainly competitive against this field. Maybe it’s too much too soon, but he hasn’t been challenged yet.
6- Offlee Naughty
He seemed to be rounding into form late last year, but it has also been his ceiling in 2022. In two starts at this level at Belmont and Churchill Downs, he has run well enough but has never contended for a victory. He hasn’t been far enough away to discredit him completely, but improvement is necessary.
7- McLovin
A loss at this level last time out is better than it appears, as he finished third behind highly touted runners Soldier Rising and Malthael. It was also a dramatic improvement over his previous starts as well, two victories at lower allowance levels. I would have preferred to see Flavien Prat stay to ride, but Joel Rosario is a top jock and has ridden the horse previously. He’s dangerous.
8- Tide of the Sea
One of the likely pace setters in this race has had a very tough time of it lately, finishing two of his last three races in dead last by a wide margin. It seems like his days as a graded stakes runner are over, and Thomas Morley is usually a good trainer off the claim but taking the horse away from Michael Maker is difficult. He needs to show me something first.
9- Ajourneytofreedom
He’s been running at a higher level for some time now, and his speed figures have been competitive at this level but obviously haven’t yielded positive results against tougher fields. The real problem is that he appears to be regressing, though that’s always hard to tell when a horse is racing above his class. His last race was the G3 Louisville in May, where he finished last in a field of 14 well behind fellow runner Reigning Spirit. He’s hard to trust.
10- Wicked Fast
This three-year-old came off a short layoff in June and surprised a conditional allowance at Belmont at 27-1 odds. The 85 BSF he earned that day was a vast improvement over his form earlier in the year. More improvement is needed as he takes the obligatory step up in the allowance conditions, however.
11- Roderick (MTO)
His chances are minimal unless he makes it in the gate.
Order: 2 5 4 7
I feel very uncomfortable taking Linda Rice over Chad Brown, but there’s enough upside for Cold Hard Cash to support him in a race that he seems prepared for. Rice typically sets horses up well for their second start off the layoff, and her gelding here is clearly in good form and has had success stretching out in distance. That’s enough for me. Balthus (Ire) has obvious upside as a Brown runner that has been flying through the conditions. But if he wasn’t in Brown’s barn, his odds would be somewhat more favorable too. Reigning Spirit and McLovin are both contenders that I believe can win coming out of some very competitive fields. They’ll both be closing late, and the trips may ultimately tell the tale.
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