Contrary to popular belief, and sometimes to my own surprise, my coursework and extracurricular responsibilities at Fordham University actually take up a significant amount of my time. Another semester is about to begin, and for the past few days, I’ve been mulling over potential solutions to a nonexistent problem: How do I subject myself to increasingly stressful, soul-crushing life as a young adult while also finding time for my horse racing website?
This is the second of two solutions I came up with. The first is a historical series, of which I’ll be releasing the first episode later today. “Millenials Legends: The Brief Resurgence of the Superhorse” will tell the story of six star horses that took over the American dirt racing scene between 2014 and 2018. It’s an exciting longform endeavor that I look forward to preparing, but I needed something more causal to accompany it. That brought me to my second solution, the “Race of the Day,” which is exactly what it sounds like.
When I find the time, I like to skim entries at tracks around the country and find tricky races to pass time mulling over. As I was trying to commit myself to a more consistent posting schedule on Paddy’s Picks, I realized how easy it would be to transfer that innocuous activity into a semi-regular segment.
Going forward, whenever I find a race particularly interesting, from a handicapping and/or sporting standpoint, I’ll feature full, horse-by-horse analysis on it in an attempt to bring it to readers’ attention. After doubling my money for three straight years at the Breeders’ Cup, I tend to favor races of a certain class, but I’m taking care not to limit my options. The “Race of the Day” could be anything I happen to find intriguing, whether it be a maiden claiming event at Charles Town or a graded stakes at Keeneland.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at Friday’s feature:
Oaklawn Park, Race 8
$85,000 Allowance for Four-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
This race is full of new four-year-olds coming off failed attempts on the Triple Crown trail in 2020, with one runner even sneaking into the Belmont Stakes. It’s a race full of capable runners, and is calling out to me as a result. My top four:
1- Make Noise
This gelding’s only attempt at any level near this one came in his last start back in November. In that race, a conditional allowance at Churchill Downs, he managed to acquire a rather easy lead but faded badly to finish 11th by 13 lengths. All of his other starts in the past year have been in cheaper races, and even then, he only managed to win once last April. He’s 2-for-24 lifetime, and in a race featuring a lot of runners with early speed, I’m not anticipating much.
2- Muralist
After winning two straight off a layoff last year, trainer Dan Blacker began to move this gelding up in class while simultaneously stretching him out in distance. In two graded stakes attempts at very long distances, he went off at long odds but performed fairly well, especially in the G2 Tokyo City. In the race, he was taken out of it early but recovered well to make a brief stretch run to finish fifth. His speed figures from those performances fit here, and with a lot of pace projected up front, it’s feasible to expect him to work out a trip from the back. However, two trainer changes in two starts has left this runner with Michael Puhlich, a significant downgrade compared to his previous handlers. In a race where he’ll likely need his best, such a trainer change is a significant mark against him.
3- Mo Mosa
The last time I saw this runner, I tossed him on instinct while handicapping the G1 Arkansas Derby featuring Charlatan. After a disappointing finish that day at long odds, trainer Michael Maker put this colt on the shelf, and the rest apparently did wonders for him. He returned nearly four months later with an allowance victory at Ellis Park, and improved again next time out in a runner-up finish in the G3 Oklahoma Derby, finishing ahead of fellow runner Dean Martini. He’s regressed in three subsequent races, however, losing badly in the G2 Fayette before falling short in two straight wiring attempts against allowance competition at Churchill Downs. His performance two races back was somewhat acceptable, but he got glacial fractions on the front end and still coughed up the lead late. His last race was an unmitigated disaster in the slop and he barely crossed the finish line. He’s coming off a short layoff, something he’s made good use of in the past, but with a lot of early speed in the field, I’m not venturing to wager on another comeback.
4- Dean Martini
The upset winner of the G3 Ohio Derby hasn’t performed badly in his attempts since, but he hasn’t lit the world on fire in any appreciable way. In five subsequent starts, he hasn’t managed to replicate the 95 BSF he earned in that win at Thistledown over talented runners like South Bend and Storm the Court. Granted, his last few races have been at uncomfortably short distances for him, and the added distance here could be what he needs. The pace may also set up well for him here, but one has to wonder if he’s the type that simply wants to run with the pack.
5- What a Country
It seems that older jockey Joe M. Johnson rides five or so horses nowadays, but he’s got this one, and he’s not too shabby. He hasn’t yet raced in stakes competition, something several of his opponents have already done, but his performances in allowance competition are far from appalling. Two starts back, he finished well to finish fourth in an allowance behind Sonneman, earning an 87 BSF in the process. His last start, in which he finished fourth by 12 lengths and behind fellow runner Mo Mosa, was disappointing, but the fractions in that race were appalling for any closer. He’s had some time off, something trainer Gary Hartlage tried with him with success last year. This gelding has given both the jockey and trainer all of their wins in the past year, and I think I can see some improvement at a price coming from him here.
6- The Sound
For lack of a better term, this colt’s race on Nov. 29 at Aqueduct was immense. In his third start, he took a clear lead, repelled an early challenge for the lead while running a half mile in 46 seconds and then ran away from allowance competition without any urging from rider Eric Cancel. At certain points, it appeared that Cancel was preparing to whip him, but after a very obvious look back, he realized how clear he really was on him. The 104 BSF he earned is even more impressive, because it’s very possible to argue that he had another gear at the ready. This is a stiff test for the Brad Cox colt, and with a lot of early pace, he’ll likely face more pressure this time around. However, he’s proven to be significantly faster than even fellow runners Mo Mosa and More Noise. If he can replicate his last performance following a short layoff with some added distance, he’ll decimate this field.
7- Great Faces
Trainer Donnie Von Hemel has been very patient with this runner, keeping him in races restricted to Oklahoma-bred horses at Remington Park for the better part of last year. However, he’s improved in three straight starts following his maiden victory while stepping up in class, emboldening the small-time trainer to bring his horse back to Arkansas. That being said, he’ll have to improve again, and significantly, if he wants to compete at this level. Maybe the connections know something I don’t, but I don’t want to pay to find out.
8- Warrior’s Map
I know next to nothing about Fair Grounds jockey Jose Riquelme, but from what I do know after watching his ride on this runner last time out, he’s clearly brilliant. In the absence of any early speed in that race, Riquelme was whipping this colt from the time the gates opened, and yet, he still managed to get away with a 24-second opening quarter. It wasn’t surprising, then, when his mount found another gear in the stretch to stubbornly hold off several closers to score an 8-1 upset victory. I really doubt that’s going to happen again against this level of competition, but at least I’ve learned that Jose Riquelme can handle a front runner when I inevitably visit the Fair Grounds. Mardi Gras anyone?
9- Jungle Runner
This colt arguably represents the toughest puzzle in the field. He hasn’t raced since June, but that’s not really the issue. His last two races are nearly unusable to evaluate his ability, as they were both terrible defeats in the G1 Arkansas Derby and G1 Belmont Stakes. What am I supposed to glean from those performances, except that he was significantly slower than Charlatan and Tiz the Law? There’s no evidence to suggest he can earn the 90 BSF he needs to win this race, let alone the 105 BSF he would’ve needed to defeat fellow runner The Sound in that colt’s last start. However, Steve Asmussen wouldn’t have entered him in such impossible spots last year if he didn’t believe the horse had some ability. It’s difficult to gauge his ability against a field like this after so much time off, but the fact that he showed so little throughout his entire three-year-old season makes 5-1 on the morning line feel a little too short to take a chance.
Order: 6 5 4 2
In the end, I’m willing to buy that The Sound’s last race was legitimate, and if I’m right, he could regress and still manage to win this race. I didn’t love any of the other contenders, which makes an honest runner like What a Country an interesting value option to couple with the favorite. Dean Martini could always return to winning form, but I would never consider him in the top spot after his last few starts. Muralist is getting some much needed class relief and could significantly improve, but an unfortunate trainer change makes me hesitant to put him any higher than fourth. Mo Mosa and Jungle Runner benefit from name recognition after some high profile starts as three-year-olds, but I’m not willing to support either one of them.