With three stakes races on Sunday’s card at Saratoga, it may seem odd that I’m turning my attention to the Incredible Revenge Stakes at Monmouth Park. There are a few reasons for this, some cautionary and some fun.
First off, with rain in the forecast upstate, I don’t feel like handicapping any turf races if they wind up moving to the dirt. Visualizing rain at Saratoga, the card becomes much less interesting, so I decided to begin considering other options. I didn’t have to look long.
This Incredible Revenge field is actually a lot of fun in its own right, featuring some top-notch runners and a handful of interesting angles. So even though we’re shipping the Race of the Day to Jersey for the day to escape some showers, there’s still plenty to enjoy here. Are you with me?
Monmouth, Race 10
Invincible Revenge Stakes (Ungraded) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Turf
Post Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
1- Bay Storm
Her races in Kentucky and New York have been very solid this year and she has only finished out of the money once in eight career starts. Jonathan Thomas is an excellent trainer for races like this one and he seems to have a qualified filly. My one nitpick is that she lost to fellow runner Illegal Smile back in April and hasn’t taken much of a step forward since.
2- Illegal Smile (Ire)
Her last start in the G3 Intercontinental was a little disappointing, but she had never performed in graded stakes competition before and regression was a distinct possibility. Earlier this year, this filly picked up right where she left off in 2021, dusting an allowance field at Keeneland with a 93 BSF. If she can retain that form in her second start off a two-month layoff, she should have more than enough to win here for trainer Wesley Ward. I think she’s sitting on a big one.
3- Honey Pants
She’s been knocking on the door at this level for some time, and it’s a little strange that she hasn’t broken through yet. This Christophe Clement trainee has run well in four starts this year, winning an optional claiming event at Gulfstream and finishing second on the other three occasions. Clement and Paco Lopez are a formidable pair and their filly is very sensible in this Incredible Revenge field.
4- Klayton’s Kandy
This filly is moving in the right direction, but this is a big step up. Winning optional claiming events at Delaware and Penn National is not the same as taking an ungraded stakes at Monmouth, and her speed figures have been increasingly competitive but remain a little light. She’s a long shot with upside.
5- Mac the Pee H Dee
Her speed figures aren’t where they need to be on the turf after four career starts, but she’s well-prepared by trainer Jorge Duarte. Bringing her to Monmouth from New York seems to be the right move, as it’s probably her best chance to contend in stakes competition. She needs to improve to have a chance here, but it’s a possibility.
6- Cilla
She’s obviously a talented dirt runner coming off a sharp start at Delaware last time out. The problem is that she has absolutely no proven ability on turf, much less an ungraded stakes like the Incredible Revenge. It’s very difficult to evaluate the transition and she will likely be overbet.
7- A G Indy
In November last year, this mare would be a rock solid contender at this level. But in the past nine months, she’s gone from Doug O’Neill in California to Todd Pletcher on the East Coast. She’s regressed throughout and has finally flushed her way down to trainer Anthony Margotta at Monmouth. It’s hard to hope for a career renaissance at this point.
8- Liberated Lady (Ire)
It’s weird to see a horse shipping from Europe to run on dirt, but that’s exactly what this filly did earlier this year. The move was even successful to an extent, but following a very poor showing in the Regret last time out, it seems like trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is trying something new. Based on her six winless starts on the grass in Europe last year, it’s difficult to see her making the switch.
9- Red Ghost
I don’t believe that this filly is Wesley Ward’s first priority in the race. As an idealistic analyst, I wish there was a “but” there for her, but it seems inescapable. Since winning the G3 Miss Preakness on dirt in May 2021, she has lost four straight starts without improving significantly on her form as a maturing three-year-old. She has only run on the turf once, back when she was two, and that race was her worst to date. She’s a long shot despite her elite connections.
10- Frosted Blue
She’s a tempting long shot but there are issues too. First, Jerry Hollendorfer and Angel Rodriguez have worked phenomenally well together at Monmouth, winning four of five starts together. This filly has been steadily improving for some time now and won her last start in a solid conditional allowance field. The step up to this level is steep, however, and Paco Lopez isn’t sticking around after winning with her last time.
11- Oddsondustymiller (MTO)
If this mare makes it in, then it defeats the entire purpose of me analyzing this race. Let’s hope the rain doesn’t follow me south.
Order: 2 3 1 5
I wouldn’t go so far to say that Illegal Smile (Ire) is a lock in this race, but I am a very big fan. I might be developing an unhealthy dependence on Wesley Ward, but it does give me a profound sense of confidence to see him representing horses in these sorts of races. This filly is poised to run big. Honey Pants is a very sensible runner for Christophe Clement and could even qualify as the favorite in this race. She’s more than capable of winning here. Bay Storm is a solid contender with appropriate speed figures for this level, but I don’t see him beating either of the top runners on their best day.