The Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga is always a fun event overshadowed by bigger races on the schedule. Well, I have a series for that, basically a spotlight that forces you all to read, and damn it if I’m not going to use it.
As a one-mile turf race for three-year-olds, the Hall of Fame is the sort of race that lands firmly in my wheelhouse. The problem: every horse in the race has a chance. This isn’t an exaggeration; of the nine horses in the race, there are nine separate cases one could make for a victory. Unlike the Alydar yesterday, which was more or less straightforward, Paddy’s Picks is unable to provide definitive analysis here. Consider it more of a second opinion.
Saratoga, Race 8
Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 5:05 p.m. EST
1- Chanceux
He may need some assistance from the Saratoga turf, but that doesn’t mean he’s impossible here. In three straight starts in ungraded stakes competition, this front-running colt has contended early before weakening in the stretch. The distance hasn’t mattered. It’s very hard to understand whether Flavien Prat left to ride fellow runner Stolen Base off if he was replaced by Irad Ortiz, but Ortiz certainly had other options in the race. In any case, he will have to deal with fellow runner Dowagiac Chief going to the lead next to him, which has been a problem for both of them in the past.
2- Dowagiac Chief
This colt has had better days earlier this year, namely the Black Gold Stakes at Fair Grounds in March, which he won by five lengths with an 88 BSF. His three most recent starts have been worse, however, as more crowded fields have led to more hotly contested paces and closer-friendly races. In this race, he’ll likely have to deal with fellow runner Chanceux directly to his inside, which could pose obvious problems.
3- Wit
He’s obviously a credible runner on dirt, having won the G3 Bay Shore amid a pair of beatings at the… hooves of Jack Christopher. Exceptional form on dirt doesn’t always transition to comparable form on turf, however, and it always leads to overbet runners. Maybe he’s the next turf sensation, but I need to see it in the Hall of Fame first.
4- Wow Whata Summer
I don’t know how to explain his victory in the G2 Penn Mile, in which he somehow beat Annapolis at 83-1 odds with an 88 BSF. That’s the sort of victory that earns as much respect as skepticism in subsequent starts, and his regression in the G3 Kent next time out seems to make sense. Maybe the mile really is the right distance, and 1 ⅛ miles was simply too long last time, but he needs to prove he’s a top-level contender before I treat him like one.
5- Stolen Base
His victory in the G2 American Turf was so impressive, and his loss in the G1 Belmont Derby was pitiful. One could argue that the field in July was much tougher than the Churchill Downs field he handled in May, but it’s impossible to argue that he didn’t regress. He may round back into form in his second start off the layoff and there should be some pace to help him, but I think there are others that are better prepared.
6- Ready to Purrform
He’s getting there, but he’s not there yet. In two starts this year, this colt has run very well and seems to be on the cusp of breaking through. This could very well be the start, as he’ll have a solid chance at a contending position and plenty of stretch running ability.
7- Double Clutch
Firing fresh off a 2 ½-month layoff, this colt finished well to take second in the Manila behind Annapolis. That performance makes him an obvious contender in this race, but he’s one of many in this field. I don’t have any solid reasoning for not taking him to win, but there’s something that feels a little too obvious.
8- Celestial City
He hasn’t won since breaking his maiden in March, which is a concern. The upside is there, however, as he’s improved in each of his five career starts and seems to be developing a strong stretch running style. If the pieces are going to fall into place, they need to do so quickly.
9- Tiz the Bomb
This familiar face has all the trappings of a future turf star. Between his runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and a handful of strong starts on synthetic tracks this year, he would probably be well on his way if not for a detour to run in the Kentucky Derby. I can forgive his poor performance in the G1 Belmont Derby, as that track heavily favored front runners and his dull effort came off a layoff anyway. He’ll probably be overbet, but he seems poised to run big.
Order: 6 7 9 8
Frankly, there’s not a single runner in this race without a chance. The trips will ultimately tell the tale, and that’s the one thing I’m totally unable to forecast. Ready to Purrform seems to be putting the pieces together in a very sensible way for Brad Cox, as he isn’t progressing rapidly but doesn’t seem to be plateauing either. I’m willing to take a chance. Double Clutch is a highly sensible option with plenty of potential in his second start off the layoff, but he’s not the sort of horse I typically support in these spots.
Tiz the Bomb could beat me along with every other runner in this field, but he needs to prove too much to deserve 7-2 odds on the morning line. Celestial City is a little difficult to evaluate, as he continues to lose despite improving in every start, but he should be sitting on a big race here.