Today’s Race of the Day is the Governor’s Stakes, an Indiana statebred stakes race for three-year-olds. Allow me to explain.
Following a two-day break on Monday and Tuesday, I expected to return to Paddy’s Picks on Wednesday and analyze a stakes race at Saratoga. That plan had to change, however, when the Shine Again didn’t draw enough runners to be carded. With a few unappetizing allowance races remaining on the card, I had no choice but to look elsewhere.
As it turns out, there’s only one track in the United States that is offering any form of stakes racing today. Colonial Downs and Delaware Park let me down with underwhelming cards. Outside of Pennsylvania Derby Day, I wouldn’t publicly bet on Parx if every other track in the country burned to the ground. I was running out of tracks.
My only remaining option was a pair of statebred stakes races in the Hoosier State. I chose the feature, the Governor’s Stakes, a full field of colts and geldings with a surprising number of interesting angles. For some of you, or all of you, who haven’t yet checked it out, it might be worth a look. If not, you might as well follow along.
It’s almost certain that the Race of the Day will be controlled by Saratoga for the rest of this week, especially as Whitney Day approaches. But I may find a way to find more creative races like this one if I can. It was admittedly a lot of fun to sift through and requires much less mental strain than my usual efforts to beat Chad Brown all the time.
Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 9
The Governor’s Stakes (Ungraded) for Indiana-Bred Three-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:38 p.m. EST
1- Latigo
This gelding ran solidly at shorter distances to begin his career, earning three straight victories in May and June. In his stakes debut at 1 1/16 miles on June 22, he seemed to handle the increased distance well, finishing evenly to hold on for third. The main issue with that performance is that he lost in convincing fashion to fellow runners Mowins and Mr Chaos. The cutback to a mile in the Governor’s should help him, but I can’t see it helping enough.
2- Bella’s Prayer (SCRATCHED)
The distance and surface have made little difference for this gelding in recent months. He has simply struggled to compete at this level. The winners of his last four starts are all running in this field, and it’s tough to see him improving enough to get revenge on all of them at once.
3- Mr Chaos
His most recent start on turf went poorly, but his previous form on dirt is much stronger. With four career wins in Indiana since last year, he’s one of the more accomplished runners in this field and his speed figures reinforce that. Back in May, he even earned a victory over fellow runner Mowins at six furlongs. Mowins went on to get his revenge at a longer distance, but this gelding was the only one to challenge him in the stretch and he was plainly superior to the rest of the field.
4- Mowins
He’s an obvious favorite for a reason, as he is one of the few competitors here to have run in open company. Following a 5 ¼-length victory over five runners in this field in the Hoosier Breeders Sophomore Stakes, he ran in the G3 Indiana Derby and finished fifth at 16-1. His credentials speak for themselves recently, as he’s simply been in exceptional form for his level. He’s not unbeatable but will certainly be tough in this year’s Governor’s.
5- Jeopardy Theory
This gelding has been killing it on turf recently, improving in three straight starts and winning convincingly with a wide variety of running styles. That’s nice to see, but there’s a reason he’s 30-1 on the morning line. His form in six starts on dirt has been atrocious and makes him very hard to trust.
6- Me and Chili
Stretching out in distance seemed to help this gelding last time out, as he improved to take a statebred allowance by four lengths against a few of the weaker runners in this field. Even with a perfect trip, however, he only managed to earn a speed figure that barely qualifies him as a Governor’s contender.
7- New Year’s Fever
He remains undefeated in two starts on dirt, and his speed can be a great asset in a crowded field. His speed figures earlier this summer were light in comparison to others here, but it’s possible that he can improve with more experience. I don’t necessarily think he can win, but a minor prize isn’t out of the question.
8- Cibolo
He’s gradually improved in the last three months at shorter distances, winning two of three starts in that span. His speed figures at lower levels are fairly competitive, but the main issue here is the mile. It’s hard to ask horses to improve while trying something new, though he remains a viable option if he makes the adjustment successfully.
9- Oro Azteca (SCRATCHED)
Distance seems to be a massive issue for this gelding, which makes one wonder why his trainer continues to enter him in routes. At 5 ½ furlongs last time out, he ran very well, using his early speed to his advantage and cruising home to win an allowance with a 77 BSF. But in every attempt at more than a mile, he has folded very badly in a clear demonstration that he lacks stamina. He needs a very favorable track bias to have any chance.
10- Amicable
After racing in statebred races throughout his two-year-old season, this deep-closing colt moved to trainer Charlie Livers’ barn and began racing against open company at Turfway Park. It was clear from the beginning that Livers had high hopes for the horse, as he ran in a number of ungraded stakes races, including the Leonatus against Rich Strike. Eventually, he returned to Indiana and lost four straight statebred allowances, three dirt sprints and a turf start, but Livers must have felt hopeful again when he brought the horse to Churchill Downs in an $80,000 optional claiming race. In 10 starts this year, some reasonable and some in which he was hopelessly outmatched, he remains winless. That being said, he hasn’t been able to run a mile on dirt yet, and his speed figures this year have been reasonable in defeat.
11- Classic Max
There are so many issues. The speedster is one of many in this field but will have to deal with an outside post. He hasn’t won a race since last September, and though he’s improved as a three-year-old, he has obviously been more effective at sprint distances.
12- Firing Range
After a pair of impressive wins against weaker fields, this gelding ran in a statebred stakes in June and got his doors blown off. A follow-up start on turf proved fruitless as well. The far outside post won’t help matters.
Also Eligible:
13- Wire the Cash (SCRATCHED)
Even if he gets in, his speed figures in three starts don’t suggest that he can compete against this field.
14- Grand in Bay (SCRATCHED)
Despite a sharp workout on July 19 and a recent improvement on turf, this colt will remain a long shot if he gets into the starting gate for the Governor’s.
Order: 10 4 3 1
It’s a Wednesday and I’m betting on an Indiana statebred race; let’s have some fun. Amicable has been underwhelming this year, even in positions where he could have won. It’s worth noting, however, that he hasn’t run a single race at what I believe is his preferred condition: dirt routes. He struggled against vastly superior runners on the synthetic track at Turfway Park and lost three straight statebred allowances at 5 ½ and 6 furlongs, distances that didn’t benefit his style. Then he made two starts on turf and lost at Churchill Downs at 75-1 going seven furlongs. Today’s race has a ton of speed in it to ensure a semblance of pace, and he gets a few extra furlongs to make up ground. He makes sense in this field — too much sense for him to go off at 20-1.
Mowins is a very clear favorite following his convincing victory at this level two starts back. Another 82 BSF will likely be enough to win this event as well, but he’s still an Indiana-bred. I’m not in the mood to treat him like Secretariat.
Mr Chaos and Latigo both lost to Mowins the last time the trio faced off, and while I struggle to make cases for either one of them to improve, I can’t rule them out as contenders in the Governor’s either.