Today’s Race of the Day is the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga, a restricted race for three-year-olds without a graded stakes win. It’s reminiscent of my Derby prep analyses from earlier this year and features some familiar faces, mostly Triple Crown rejects and runners looking to take a step forward this summer. It’s an exciting mix of talented horses and there are multiple angles worth examining closely.
Before we take a look, I feel the need to make a halfhearted apology. After rushing to publish yesterday’s Race of the Day on a tight schedule, I checked in later on to discover that all my work was in vain, as a sudden rainstorm in upstate New York took the event off the turf. I would fully apologize to my readers for giving them meaningless analysis, but I also feel compelled to hold my head high, as my top selection was apparently ready to go on both surfaces and won at 5-2. You’re welcome? Let’s try to make it two in a row in the Curlin.
Saratoga, Race 7
Curlin Stakes (Ungraded) for Three-Year-Olds Which Have Never Won a 3YO Graded Stakes Over 1 Mile, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 4:18 p.m. EST
1- Western River
On paper, it may not appear as though this colt has improved since breaking his maiden back in April. If anything, three straight 87 BSFs seem to suggest a very solid ceiling, but I believe there’s more than meets the eye. Following his commanding maiden victory at Oaklawn, in which he gave away 18 lengths at the start and won easily, Rodolphe Brisset entered him in the G3 Peter Pan Stakes, a steep step up in class. To make matters worse, the track was wet and he stumbled at the start but still managed to make a mild bid going wide around the turn to take fourth.
His last start in an allowance at Churchill Downs was much cleaner and he dominated, but I have to imagine that he isn’t going to deliver his best result at 1 ½ miles either. If improvement is what’s needed for this colt to take this race, I think he has something left in the tank.
2- Gilded Age
It was a bold decision by Bill Mott to ship this runner to Meydan in the middle of the Derby trail, and the decision proved unwise when the colt came up empty in the UAE Derby. In his first race back in the U.S. earlier this month, he needed every inch of the stretch to close from way back and catch respected runner Brigadier General at the wire. I would like to see more before I support him against runners of this caliber.
3- A.P.’s Secret
After a solid fourth-place finish in the G2 Wood Memorial behind the future winners of the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, it would have been reasonable to expect more from this runner against easier fields. With that in mind, his regression in the Texas Derby came as a surprise, as it was largely inexcusable. Despite finding a very solid stalking position, he simply hung in the stretch and got outkicked by a pair of upset runners trained by Steve Asmussen, one of which was a maiden. Manny Franco returns to ride as he did at Aqueduct, but he’s harder to trust now.
4- Make It Big
In my analysis of the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes back in February, I believed that this colt’s three victories at two were very weak and made him look better than he appeared. I turned out to be right, but even then, I suspected that his tenth-place finish that day was not merely a result of the class hike. Based on the severe regression and subsequent five-month layoff, along with a trainer change from Saffie Joseph to Todd Pletcher, it’s clear that this runner has been dealing with a setback of some sort. He’s a wild card in this field as a result. Pletcher clearly has confidence to put him in the Curlin off the layoff, and natural improvement could put him in contention under the right conditions. I can see why bettors would be interested to see more at a price.
5- Golden Glider
I can forgive his poor start in the Belmont Stakes last time out for a number of reasons related to class and distance. If that race is off the table, then this colt remains a very solid competitor that hasn’t quite found his breakthrough yet. I’m a fan of the horse and want him to succeed, but it’s concerning to see former riders Dylan Davis and Ricardo Santana leave for other mounts in the field.
6- Wolfe County
Well, he’s moving in the right direction, but he’s not moving fast enough. Ken McPeek made a bold move in his last start to step him up from the $50,000 maiden claiming level to the $106,000 maiden special weight level, and it paid off when he came home to win with a 79 BSF. He makes another bold move with his colt here, but the waters for the Curlin seem impossibly deep.
7- Creative Minister
Without considering his flat performance in the Belmont Stakes, which was a lot to ask of the colt in a short time frame, he’s a deserving favorite here. I suspected that he might make a solid showing in the G1 Preakness and he did exactly what I thought he would, improving to finish third with a 100 BSF. Going into that race, he was little more than a game allowance-level colt. Now, he’s a graded stakes hopeful with plenty of upside, and the Curlin may be a prep for those starts. One can only hope that the 1 ½ miles in the Belmont didn’t take too much out of him for the summer season.
8- Be Better
The only loss of his career came in Aug. 2021 against maiden breaker Jack Christopher, who has done fairly well for himself since. After a very long break that allowed this colt to mature, Todd Pletcher brought him back at Monmouth to begin his three-year-old campaign, where he squeaked out a maiden win before taking an allowance handily over next-time-out winner Cyberviking. He’s a very solid contender here with a precocious background and flashy victory, though it’s worth noting that many in this field have already passed the distance test he faces.
9- Artorius
He’s a wonderfully named colt with very clear potential. With a hard-fought win over Gasoline to break his maiden last month, Chad Brown’s ambition to enter him against this field isn’t unwarranted because of the 91 BSF he earned. The distance is always a question, however, and this colt may simply need a race beyond a mile before he can realistically take money at 7-2.
Order: 1 7 8 9
I’m hoping for a fast track, but I think Western River may be a very interesting candidate for improvement after a handful of starts under suboptimal conditions. In those starts, he has maintained an admirable level of consistency, and with the stars aligning in this start, he may have enough to make a legitimate run at a price. Creative Minister is a deserving favorite following his third-place finish in the Preakness Stakes two starts back. If he’s capable of repeating a similar performance, then he’s solidly in contention for a win against this field.
Be Better showed a new dimension in his most recent start at Monmouth for Todd Pletcher with the sort of move that demonstrated an affinity for longer distances. Artorius is also an impressive up-and-comer with every chance to take a step forward for Chad Brown, but it’s doubtful that the price will be there for a horse trying something new against a more seasoned Curlin field.
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