Race of the Day: Colonial Cup, July 27, 2022

I’ve tried this format in the past and I’m going to try it again. Stick with me. Nearly every time I open a racing form, I find a race that catches at least some of my attention. The problem is that I don’t always have time to play a full card and share my thoughts with Paddy’s Picks readers. So… Race of the Day.

In what I hope will be a consistent segment on the site, I’m going to provide analysis for a single race that caught my eye on that particular day. The horses will usually be classy, turf racing will come up often and oddities will be prioritized. You know, the usual on this website.

On the first day of this reboot, I’ll be analyzing the Colonial Cup at Colonial Downs. I could have picked the Honorable Miss at Saratoga featuring Frank’s Rockette, Bella Sofia and Kimari, but it wouldn’t take long for me to tell you that three top horses have a chance of winning the four-horse race. At Colonial, this stakes race features two hurdlers, a few graded stakes winners and some wild long shots in a marathon turf race. Tell me you’re not a little intrigued.

Colonial Downs, Race 8

Colonial Cup (Ungraded) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Inner Turf

Post Time: 5:01 p.m. EST

1- Royne

I saw this gelding in person at Laurel back in June, where he ran gamely in an allowance but finished second as the beaten favorite. A few weeks later, he came back at the same level while stretching out to 1 ⅜ miles and won nicely, taking an uncharacteristic trip from the back of the pack and flying home late to win by a length. The main issue is that he didn’t improve in victory, running the same 82 BSF he always seems to run when he’s feeling his best. Improvement is necessary as he steps up in class.

2- Snap Decision

Many won’t remember, but this renowned hurdler was once a solid runner on flat ground as well. A contemporary of runners like Yoshida and Bricks and Mortar, he finished fourth behind that pair in the 2017 G2 Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga. A frustrating four-year-old campaign led to his switch to hurdles, and the rest is history, as he went on to become the best in the country for a time and remains a top competitor to this day. What’s he doing here then? After so much time away, Jack Fisher is electing to bring him back to flat racing, and it’s almost impossible for me to evaluate that transition. There seem to be two certainties for the eight-year-old: he’s still great at something and he won’t have to carry 158 pounds this time around.

3- Always Above

In his turf route debut against maiden competition two back, this colt ran big at Churchill to upset a field of solid maidens at 11-1. The decision by trainer Michelle Nihei to put him back on the dirt in his next start was an interesting one, as is her decision to put him in this field against some very salty runners. The three-year-old needs to take a big step forward.

4- Red Knight

This gelding was in Bill Mott’s barn forever, and while it’s rare for a switch to Michael Maker to be a bad sign, I have concerns. His qualifications are obvious as a graded stakes winner, and at his best, he’s head and shoulders above this field. The problem is that he’s obviously not at his best at eight years old. He didn’t have many chances against the likes of Arklow, Gufo and Cross Border in his 2021 campaign, but he regressed nonetheless and seemed to get worse as the season went on. Mott’s exit seems telling as a result, and Maker’s desire to find him a softer spot seems to suggest he’s not returning to form. He may still be good enough to win, but the odds are unlikely to reward the risk.

5- Nathan Detroit

There are a lot of questions to consider here. Class is an obvious one, as he remains unproven at this level following an allowance win at Laurel and subsequent loss in an ungraded stakes. Another is speed, as there are several in here that have run considerably faster than his career high. The real problem is distance, however, as this colt has never run anywhere near this far on the turf, and an attempt at 1 ¼ Miles on dirt last year proved disappointing. At least Union Rags gives him an edge in breeding, but there’s not much else here.

6- Bakers Bay

One could argue that this gelding hasn’t been put in positions to win for some time now. Running in graded stakes competition against the likes of Gufo and Abaan has led to an obvious regression, but his speed figures remain consistent, suggesting he’s still in form. Shug McGaughey finds a reasonable spot for the gelding this time around, and the distance seems manageable at the very least. He’s interesting at a price.

7- Another Mystery

He’s technically a graded stakes winner, but it’s worth noting that the win came in a G3 at Sam Houston in a dead heat and he upset the field at 23-1. Since then, the six-year-old has been smoked at higher levels but has continued to compete against fields comparable to this one. He’s a contender, but he’ll need to improve following a tenth-place finish behind fellow runner Cellist in the G3 Louisville two back.

8- Cellist

If you’re looking for the runner rounding into form, he’s undeniably the one. Following an underwhelming but promising three-year-old campaign, Rusty Arnold has brought this gelding back at four and slowly taken strides to get him in shape. His efforts culminated in the G3 Louisville, when the son of Big Blue Kitten closed very nicely to win in a blanket finish with a 94 BSF. Julien Leparoux returns to ride.

9- The Happy Giant

Like Snap Decision, this gelding is attempting a transition from hurdles to flat racing after a lengthy career over fences. The difference is that he’s never been a highly touted runner in any sense and holds a 3-for-25 lifetime racing record. A maiden win at Colonial going 1 1/16 miles is a sign that he’s capable, but the 74 BSF is sure to make him a long shot.

10- La Lune (GB)

She hasn’t been running poorly for trainer Edward Vaughan since coming to the U.S. from Great Britain. Being winless in five starts stateside isn’t necessarily a disqualifier either, depending on the situation. That being said, I would have liked to see a little more from this mare against other fillies and mares before I support her in a race against somewhat more competitive males.

11- Bluegrass Parkway

With fellow runner Red Knight in the race, it’s unlikely that this gelding is Michael Maker’s top priority. Some of his speed figures from last year are nearly competitive, however, and he’s demonstrated affinity for the distance. The loss in an optional claiming event at Belmont last time out is sure to discourage some bettors, and while it’s true that he could have done more that day, it could also prove to be a useful prep. He’s not ridiculous.

Order: 6 8 11 4

In a race that should resemble a stampede at the end, I’m going to take a chance on Bakers Bay, who’s been running solidly while under the radar in graded stakes competition. Two starts earlier this year have likely helped him get back into the swing of things in 2022, and it feels like Shug McGaughey has found a very reasonable spot for him. Cellist is an obvious contender coming off a G3 stakes victory at Churchill Downs in May and I don’t see any reason why he can’t win here. But there are so many that have a chance and taking the favorite seems somewhat unoriginal, even if it won’t be a surprise. Bluegrass Parkway is another runner that I believe is due for a solid effort and the price will be right due to some uninspiring results recently. His stablemate Red Knight is also a very clear cut option against this field, but I would rather take horses looking to improve and the plan with him seems to be to win with regressing form.