This year’s running of the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga is one of the most intriguing in recent history, revolving around one idea: No one seems to be afraid of National Treasure.
In past years, daunting favorites have consistently deterred most challengers, leading to very small fields. This year, 11 runners have entered to take a shot at the leader of the weak older males division. As a handicapper, it’s hard to ask for much more.
As usual, I’ll be providing full analysis of the race in post position order. In addition, I’ve gone back and added a sentence for each horse to take the rain and sloppy track into account. The weather is sure to shake up this field, and I wanted to provide readers with up-to-date information. Let’s get to it.
Saratoga, Race 11
Whitney Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:42 p.m. ET
1- Post Time
He’s probably not your best bet to beat National Treasure, as he lost to the favorite decisively last time out in the G1 Met Mile. The distance is also a question; despite earning eight wins in 11 starts, he’s only won once beyond seven furlongs and he has no experience at all beyond a mile. He’s an excellent G3-caliber runner and could land in the exotics, but he still has to prove he belongs here. A wet track significantly boosts his prospects, with his career-best coming in the slop at Laurel earlier this year.
2- Disarm
It’s encouraging that Steve Asmussen is keeping this colt at this level after a disappointing start in the G1 Stephen Foster back in June. Jockey Joel Rosario might have had other options in this race, but he isn’t going anywhere either. After a promising three-year-old campaign, he hasn’t been the same horse in two starts at four, though very little was asked of him in that optional claimer in May. I can’t rule out the idea that he bounces all the way back in this start with a few fresheners under his belt. There should also be plenty of pace in this race to benefit his closing style. Very interesting at a price. A wet track helps him, as he proved capable of handling it all summer last year.
3- National Treasure
White Abarrio was a no-show in the Met Mile, but this colt did everything he was supposed to do to win that race going away. He’s a deserving favorite again here as the current Horse of the Year front runner, but the field size suggests that he’s not scaring anyone away either. The speed figures, while impressive, don’t necessarily make him a world beater. He’s shown cracks in the past going 1 ⅛ miles, and he’ll likely have to set an honest pace on the front end if he wants the lead. I’m not getting my hopes up, but it’s arguable to take a shot against him. The wet track raises serious concerns for him, as he struggled mightily in two such tries last year.
4- Warrior Johny
This gelding’s most recent start is the only one that puts him in the conversation here. To his credit, it was a nice optional claimer win by daylight, in which he improved dramatically despite bumping and checking. It was a big breakthrough for a horse always on the cusp of stakes competition, and it could be a turning point for him in the future. This is a big step up from that level, however. Joel Rosario leaves to ride Disarm. The wet track does very little to impact his prospects.
5- First Mission
Hard to come up with many excuses for his regression in the G1 Stephen Foster last time out, though it could have simply been a matter of getting funneled into an uncomfortable position on the front end. The 106 BSF he earned two back in the G2 Alysheba is sure to turn some heads here, and that race occurred on a sloppy track, setting him up well for a rainy day at Saratoga. There are a handful of performances besides that one that mark him as a contender in this race, but there are some missteps too. It’s hard to tell which horse we’re going to get, though his versatile speed will always be an asset. The wet track is likely a benefit based on his lone start in the slop.
6- Il Miracolo (SCRATCHED)
7- Crupi
The G2 Suburban winner in June, this colt was the only dirt horse to win from the back of the pack on Belmont Stakes Day at Saratoga. In July, he was the best of the rest when Next blew everyone’s doors off in the G2 Brooklyn. Todd Pletcher is ready to step him back up to G1 stakes competition after a disastrous try in the Dubai World Cup, and there’s a lot to like given his recent performances. There are also problems, of course. If anything, it seems like the deep closer appreciates a little more ground than 1 ⅛ miles. He also has to get a little faster, though he has been trending in the right direction this season. The wet track doesn’t make much of a difference, though kickback could be an issue due to his running style.
8- Tumbarumba
He’s become a bit of a bridesmaid in the lower stakes levels lately, finishing second in four of his last five starts and only winning the G3 Fred Hooper by a nose. To put it bluntly, he’s a hard-trying sort of runner but doesn’t have the kind of past performances that would make him a serious contender in this field. The wet track is a slight concern; his only start on a sloppy surface was a disaster.
9- Bright Future
It’s probably best to ignore the speed figure he earned winning the G3 Salvator Mile, as it was obviously a freshener for the horse coming off a long layoff. At four, Todd Pletcher realized very quickly that he had a serious runner on his hands and pushed him hard, sending him straight from optional claiming competition to the G1 stakes level. The horse responded, winning the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup with a 103 BSF, but he understandably hit a wall in the BC Classic. A long winter break should have given him a chance to recuperate, and the mile-long breeze at Monmouth in June prepares him well for this spot. The rain could be a concern because has no experience in the slop, but his running style is a benefit and he has a 420 Tomlinson rating for the wet.
10- Skippylongstocking
This fan favorite has certainly found a comfortable running style lately, and it’s more than likely that he breaks just behind National Treasure, like he did in the BC Dirt Mile last year. Despite collecting nearly $2.5 million in purse money in his career, he’s still looking for his first G1 stakes victory. At the very least, this Whitney distance should be perfect for him. Every now and again, he pops a massive speed figure, like the 107 BSF he earned winning the G2 Oaklawn in April, that would help him make some serious noise in this spot. The problem is that there doesn’t seem to be a reliable way to forecast when he has that sort of run in the chamber. The rain won’t be an issue, as he has proven more than capable of handling it in the past.
11- Arthur’s Ride
Bill Mott has a serious wild card in this race, as this runner has no stakes experience, some massive speed figures and the sort of plan that could seriously ruin National Treasure’s race. After losing the vast majority of his three-year-old season to injury, this colt has come back in 2024 and absolutely melted faces at the optional claiming level. Barring one horrendous performance in the slop, he has gunned it on the front end and pulled away to win two races by more than 20 combined lengths. Based on my opinion that Saratoga’s racing surface in early June was overwhelmingly favorable to early speed, I have to believe that the 111 BSF he earned last time out is inflated. That being said, I don’t believe the track was so biased that it could carry him to a win at 1 ¼ miles if he couldn’t typically handle it. Usually, connections representing long shots wouldn’t have much interest in directly challenging National Treasure and risk the chance of getting a minor check. This one doesn’t seem to have a choice, however. We know where he’ll be. In his lone start on a sloppy track, he failed to get involved at any point, and there are very few excuses for that performance besides the surface change.
12- Charge It
It’s a distinct possibility that his best days are simply behind him, and it’s especially hard to come up with an excuse for his latest showing in the ungraded Hanshin at Churchill Downs. With a career-best performance, he could certainly make some noise here, but there’s very little to suggest he still has that in him. The sloppy track doesn’t hurt him, but it doesn’t do much to improve the outlook here.
Order: 9 2 5 10
Bright Future and Disarm will both earn win bets from me, giving me a solid contender and lively long shot in this wide-open field. Bright Future is extremely well-named, as it seems that Todd Pletcher has prepared him well for a successful five-year-old campaign. Disarm, on the other hand, has to regain some form from last year, but the confidence of his connections tells me that he may be better prepared than we realize.
First Mission has a speed figure in the slop that makes him dangerous here, but at a short price in a big field, I feel uncomfortable taking him because of his inconsistency. Skippylongstocking seems like an excellent option to use underneath, as all signs point to a solid performance on an off track.