After dedicating so much time in my full-card analysis discussing the fanfare and history surrounding the Travers Stakes, it should be clear to anyone who wasn’t already painfully aware that I tend to be sentimental about sports. This isn’t really a matter of debate.
If you can believe it, this occasionally gets me into trouble with other sports fans. I get a lot of ‘rose-colored glasses’ accusations, or sometimes even an outright dismissal on the grounds that I’m being unrealistic or contrarian. I don’t even disagree with people who make those claims. I like radical decisions and big risks and I’m accepting of failure when they don’t work. I want to see something incredible every time I watch a sporting event, and I don’t see the harm in rooting for such things.
When it comes to this year’s Travers, however, I’m standing my ground. In fact, I think it’s time for a rant. Thorpedo Anna belongs in the race.
It’s not a fanciful idea or a storytelling fantasy. I’m saving my rose-colored glasses for Mets games. In the world of horse racing, Ken McPeek’s Champion filly is currently one of the best three-year-olds in the country. Full stop. She deserves to race against her contemporaries. It’s right there in the Racing Form.
Over the years, I’ve heard and read countless reasons why fillies shouldn’t race against males. It challenges them mentally. It puts too much strain on them. It makes more sense to collect checks within the division. I could go on. In most cases, at least some of these arguments hold water. Others are patently ridiculous.
This is the bottom line. Every now and then, a filly dominates her division so soundly that she no longer has anything to prove. Since winning the Kentucky Oaks, Thorpedo Anna has breezed through every filly she has encountered. In the CCA Oaks last time out, only three horses entered to challenge her. She jumped out of the gate in that race and still managed to win. For Dornoch, the Belmont Stakes winner, such an incident would have ruined his race. She earned a 95 BSF.
A victory for Anna in the Alabama Stakes last weekend would not have taught us anything we didn’t already know. Losing the Alabama wouldn’t have come close to costing her an Eclipse Award. McPeek’s decision to enter her in the Travers makes both races more interesting. The sport doesn’t grow through media narratives or girl power. The sport grows by organizing the most competitive races possible. You can’t tell a story if you don’t have a stage to set.
To save you a twist ending to this article, I don’t have Thorpedo Anna winning the Travers this year. I think Fierceness is a little too tough, and Sierra Leone will be a serious threat down the center of the track. But if a race to determine the best three-year-old in the country right now didn’t include her, then I wouldn’t honor the result. She’s a fresh face in a division that could quickly get stale, and she’s spent the past three months driving her opposition into the ground. You couldn’t ask for a better challenger.
So yeah, I’m pretty stoked that she’s in there. It rocks. There’s not even much history to get into; there has never been a filly in modern racing to enter the Travers with a serious winning chance. She’s trying to do something unprecedented. Let’s get into it.
Saratoga, Race 13
Travers Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
1- Thorpedo Anna
Not only has this filly completely dominated her own division, but she has done so while encountering trouble. In the G1 Acorn, she tossed a shoe and still powered home to a 5 ½-length win with a 99 BSF. In the G1 CCA Oaks, she jumped in the gate, hustled to the front and still had plenty in reserve to pull away by 4 ½ lengths. It’s hard to know what her best performance looks like, but she fits much better in this field than she would have in the G1 Alabama last week. The distance is a question, but her overwhelming success at 1 ⅛ miles should abate most fears about an extra furlong. With Fierceness and Dornoch both looking for the front, it’s imperative that she works out her usual trip off the pace. There are some solid closers in this field that would relish a speed duel, and she can’t take part in one if she wants a winning chance.
2- Sierra Leone
In three straight races, I’ve said that an honest pace will likely give this colt an opportunity to make a late run. I’ve been correct in that assessment, but I’ve also been correct to bet against him. In two straight starts at Saratoga, he simply hasn’t managed to make up the ground, falling short to Dornoch in the G1 Belmont and Fierceness in the G2 Jim Dandy. This is a golden opportunity with all of his serious challengers likely settling near the front, but we’ve been here before. If he can’t do it in this spot, I can’t imagine him ever doing it at the highest level.
3- Unmatched Wisdom
Undefeated in three starts, this colt seems to have a promising future ahead of him. It would be easy to poke holes as he steps up sharply in class. He earned a 99 BSF in the Curlin last time out with an unchallenged wire-to-wire trip, one he has no chance of getting here. Flavien Prat is also naturally leaving to ride Sierra Leone. Still, it’s far from impossible for Chad Brown’s other runner to stick around for the stretch run.
4- Corporate Power
After a successful but unassuming start to the 2024 season, this colt returned off a layoff and improved dramatically, earning a 97 BSF in the Curlin and nearly catching Unmatched Wisdom. Running behind a loose frontrunner in an ungraded stakes race isn’t necessarily the ideal prep for a Travers winner, though he has been training well.
5- Batten Down
After a suffocating wire-to-wire win in the G3 Ohio Derby, he was obviously a step slow behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone in the G2 Jim Dandy last time out. There’s very little reason to suspect improvement.
6- Honor Marie
The other deep closer in the race, he has done a nice job to pick up minor checks in some very big stakes races this year. He hasn’t raced since the Belmont, which could give him some upside coming off a layoff. Still, he has never come close to outfinishing Sierra Leone in three encounters, making him difficult to support. A minor Prize is in play with the right pace scenario.
7- Dornoch
Picking Mindframe to beat this guy in two straight races has been unprofitable and frustrating. He was probably a lucky winner in the Belmont, but the Haskell victory was very legitimate. It’s indisputably true that he’s extremely stubborn when he’s in front. There’s another side to that coin, however, as he also seems to need the lead to have any winning chance. For the third straight race, it appears that he should have some company on paper. But if the field lets him get away again, he could pose serious problems later on.
8- Fierceness
It’s rare to see a horse so perfectly exemplify the ‘every-other-race’ concept, but boy, does this colt have it down. Isolating his last three races specifically, it wasn’t hard to predict that he would have a tough time near the front in the Kentucky Derby. His performances before and after that race, in the Florida Derby and Jim Dandy, were overwhelming victories that should make him the favorite here. Because he has spent his entire career alternating between brilliance and shocking disappointment, however, some may be hesitant to trust him. If he wins, it would be the first time in his career that he has managed to string together two good performances in a row.
Order: 8 1 2 7
Fierceness simply seems to be a step above this field on his best day. Sierra Leone had his issues getting a clean trip in the Jim Dandy, but Fierceness was coming off a long layoff and still had enough to keep the talented closer at bay. He’s never managed to run two good races in a row, but this is a prime spot to do so. Thorpedo Anna will be getting a sentimental win bet, but it definitely won’t feel like one. She has a lot going for her in this spot. Not only is she a great fit in this field, but her stellar past performances somehow leave me with a reasonable impression that she can improve. Sierra Leone probably has the best winning chance in this field with so many early speed types present. Flavien Prat has consistently failed to put him in winning positions though, and his last two performances at Saratoga should not earn him favoritism. Dornoch is about to fool me three times and it’s going to hurt like hell, but I just can’t see him surviving up front against Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna and then holding off Sierra Leone late.