I don’t go to Aqueduct often enough. It would be easy to blame the powers that be for not putting any money into the place, but that’s a poor excuse. The fact that I can take the subway to see horse racing and consistently neglect the option is squarely on me. It’s something I should rectify, as this year’s Queens County Stakes demonstrates that there’s still some excellent racing on display in Ozone Park.
Of course, I can always write for Paddy’s Picks. Sometimes, I just find a race I like and this year’s Queens County Stakes fits that bill. It’s a really well-composed field, featuring an army of talented allowance runners and some classier types trying to pick up a quick check. It struck me as the perfect Sunday afternoon race, and I’d love to share it with all of you. Let’s get to business.
Editor’s Note: A laundry list of scratches have made me a very sad handicapper since writing this introduction.
Aqueduct, Race 8
Queens County Stakes for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 3:35 p.m. ET
1- Masmak (SCRATCHED)
Dick Dutrow and Joel Rosario cast massive shadows in this group, which will ensure that this upstart colt takes considerable money. He might deserve it in his stakes debut; his first start against winners in November was a lovely step forward on his maiden form with a similar closing trip. He’ll face a saltier group this time around, but it feels like a natural spot for an improving horse with a career-best 96 BSF. It’s hard to imagine the increased distance being an issue, but it’s worth noting that Dutrow hasn’t moved him beyond a mile as a three-year-old. A few longer tries as a juvenile don’t seem indicative of his current ability.
2- Instant Coffee
Plans for a 2023 Kentucky Derby appearance went sideways for this colt when he lost most of that season to a setback. He’s only managed to return to the track consistently in the past few months, and there were some brutal missteps early on. His form has improved to a point, but since September, he has lost to three separate rivals in this field in three straight races at the $80,000 optional claiming level. He deserves an excuse for the last one, in which he traveled eight-wide and came up just short to fellow runner Tabegauche. A loss in October to Law Professor was more convincing, however. Consider for a minor check.
3- Curbstone
In a feature article about jockey Maddy Olver I wrote for the Paulick Report last year, I mentioned this gelding by name. It’s wonderful to see her back aboard the horse that gained her considerable notoriety as an apprentice. That may even be an angle for ambitious bettors, as she has had more success with him than any other jockey. Trainer Thomas Morley has never been afraid of getting experimental with the five-year-old, demonstrated perfectly by a wildly ambitious entry in a two-mile turf marathon at Far Hills back in October. That ambition was rewarded, as the gelding came within 100 yards of pulling off a 59-1 shock on The Grey Wizard, a graded stakes winner on turf. His dirt form hasn’t been nearly as strong in 2024 as it was in 2023, when Olver was aboard for his career-best 96 BSF. He’s an unwieldy, if intriguing, long shot by any metric, but here’s one more angle for the road: four of his five career wins have come in the colder months at Aqueduct.
4- Phileas Fogg
This gelding has been cashing checks up and down the East Coast in 2024, notching five wins in nine starts. The surface hasn’t mattered much either, with wins coming on turf and various dirt conditions. He’s an obvious contender in this field, but if I’m nitpicking, I might say that he’s not a great candidate for improvement, based on the likely race shape, a short layoff and a relatively excuse-free slate of past performances. Speed is the name of his game; he’s obviously most comfortable on the front end and that could be an issue in this crowded field. Still, his last race at a mile, in which he earned a 95 BSF while dueling on a closer-friendly track, certainly makes him a contender, and he has fired fresh after time off in the past.
5- Quality Chic (SCRATCHED)
This gelding finished second by a neck in this race last year, though that field seemed a tad weaker than this one figures to be. That place finish was one of a handful of promising performances for him around the turn of last year, but he suffered a backslide under trainer David Jacobson as the year progressed. Trainer Jason Cook claimed him for $50,000 after a win at Churchill Downs last month, his first victory in 2024 after 10 tries. A show finish in the Cherokee Mile at 35-1 odds last time out is a nice step forward, but he still seems outclassed here.
6- Repo Rocks (SCRATCHED)
His best days are certainly behind him, but it would be hard to stomach if bettors allowed this graded stakes winner to get away at 15-1 at post time. He’s still among the classiest in this field, having mixed it up in graded stakes competition in his last two starts. A trifecta of dud performances under Dick Dutrow over the summer had people concerned that he was done, but he has regained some of his old form since returning to Jamie Ness’ barn. In 44 career starts, he has somehow never raced at 1 ⅛ miles, which is a concerning additional obstacle as he looks to turn back the clock. His tactical speed should be an asset in any case, and a place finish behind next-time-out graded stakes winner Coastal Mission in the Parx Dirt Mile back in September suggests that his form may be better than the speed figures are suggesting. These Aqueduct ungraded stakes were his bread and butter for years. He’s always, always dangerous.
7- Law Professor
He’ll always be remembered for giving Life Is Good the scare of his career in the 2022 Woodward Stakes, but this gelding has been plugging away for years now and recently crossed the million-dollar benchmark. In early 2023, he collected a pair of checks in absolutely dominant ungraded stakes victories at Aqueduct, including this race. He’s a national talent and has raced everywhere, but he adores this track, having won five of seven starts here. Most of those wins came when he was a regular in graded stakes competition. Now, he’s trying to re-enter those ranks after missing most of the 2024 season. For our purposes, his only useful start was his last one in October, when he returned from an apparent injury and defeated talented runner Bendoog by a nose in an optional claiming event. He’s coming off another layoff here, but trainer Rob Atras clearly has bigger plans for him if he can stay healthy. He’s the one to beat.
8- Unlimitedpotential
Without any overwhelmingly impressive wins at or near this level, this five-year-old figures to be cheap speed and little more. That could impact the race, particularly for runners like Phileas Fogg, but the presence of more talented front runners also makes the likelihood of stealing the race fairly low as well. S GONZALEZ came to Aqueduct specifically for this mount last time out and notched a nice win, but the waters get much deeper here.
9- Film Star (SCRATCHED)
It’s hard to evaluate the relative strength of an ungraded stakes race at Laurel, but this horse did perform well enough to win such an event with a 96 BSF last time out. Linda Rice has shipped this horse on several occasions throughout his career, still believing in the promise he demonstrated during his four-year-old season. He enjoyed a quick ascent, flying through allowance conditions before finishing second behind Zandon in the G2 Woodward. He stalled from there, however, and is only now beginning to earn speed figures that reflect that previous form. If the Laurel start is a genuine mark of improvement, then he’s a strong contender in this field, but I might need to see it first.
10- Surface to Air (SCRATCHED)
Jockey Fernando Jara is making the trip to New York solely to ride this colt, who went 0-for-9 to start his career before winning five of his last seven starts. The most recent win was nullified by a disqualification, but the victory before that was not, a 24-1 stunner at Keeneland over Creative Minister and other hard-knocking Kentucky runners. Jara was aboard for both starts and clearly has a connection with the horse, but improvement is needed for him to make any noise in this field.
11- Tabegauche
This colt was absolutely deadlocked into the $80,000 optional claiming level in New York for nearly an entire year. After eight uninterrupted tries, however, he finally broke through last time out in a blanket finish victory. His recent speed figures suggest that he has been improving in defeat along the way, and it wouldn’t take much of a nudge to get him into winning position in this field. It is also common for horses stuck at one level for a long time to progress quickly through the next one, though it happens more when the ceiling is lower. Joel Rosario leaving to ride Masmak is a telling sign that this one may not be up to this task just yet.
Order: 7 6 1 10 (Update: The 6, 1 and 10 are scratched.)
New Order: 7 4 11 3
Well, most of my picks got scratched, forcing me to rewrite this on the fly. Law Professor was my top choice before and is now entering lock territory with most of his strongest opponents withdrawing. Phileas Fogg is worth keeping an eye on, however, as the smaller field could benefit his running style. Curbstone gets a sentimental bet now.