To be completely candid with all of you, I’m not a huge fan of the Pegasus World Cup. I enjoyed it in the very early days, when it boasted a $12 million purse and innovative invitation system. The very first running in 2017 was a Breeders’ Cup Classic rematch between Arrogate and California Chrome, and I genuinely thought I was witnessing the beginning of a storied horse racing tradition.
But it’s 2024 now, and it’s still very cold in January. And instead of Arrogate and California Chrome, I have to watch the 12 best dirt horses in the country that didn’t retire at the end of 2023. Only one of them has a G1 stakes win. As for the international flavor of this World Cup race, O’Connor was bred in Chile and came to the United States in late 2022. That’s it.
On the note of international flavor, I decided to skip analysis for the Pegasus World Cup Turf this year, as I did not want to dedicate 2,000 words of writing to say that I’ll be betting on Aiden O’Brien in Florida. If you’ve read any of my work over the years, you should be able to guess that I’ll be backing Warm Heart (Ire), O’Brien’s four-year-old filly that finished second in the Breeders’ Cup F&M Turf last year. Bringing Ryan Moore to Gulfstream in January almost redeems the entire event for me.
As for the dirt race, I’ll preface my analysis by saying that it’s interesting from one standpoint: It’s a rematch of a race that never occurred. Last May, I picked First Mission to win the Preakness and considered him a virtual lock. He was scratched, however, and I had to watch in person as National Treasure defeated one of the worst Triple Crown fields I’ve ever seen. Now, I get the chance to see the two of them square off eight months later. Beyond that top pair, however, it was very difficult for me to parse through generic also-ran types. I sincerely hope you find more value than I did, dear reader, and I also hope that the World Cups in Dubai and Saudi Arabia later this year feature horses more exotic than… Pennsylvanian.
Gulfstream, Race 13
Pegasus World Cup (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:40 p.m. ET
1- Nimitz Class
Surprisingly, the distance isn’t such a concern, as this five-year-old has managed to stretch with some success in the past. He also recently moved into George Weaver’s barn, which is a stupendous upgrade. The main issue is class, as he simply hasn’t had much experience against top-level runners. He can boast a huge upset win over Gunite two back in the Parx Dirt Mile, but he earned that 100 BSF on his favorite track against a talented but vulnerable sprinter. Thrusting him into a G1 race off a dull effort at Parx and a three-month layoff seems too ambitious.
2- O’Connor (Chi)
I’m still not sure if this horse appreciates the dirt at Gulfstream, but he better deal with it as long as Saffie Joseph is training him. This is his second crack at the Pegasus and he’s technically coming into it in identical form, having now earned a 100 BSF in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday in two straight years. That speed figure was enough to win the Gulfstream prep this year, but his 11th-place finish in the Pegasus last year should keep bettors from getting too excited. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione leaves to ride fellow Saffie runner Skippylongstocking.
3- Dynamic One
I was a big fan of this horse in 2022, when he rebounded from a tough three-year-old campaign and began to find his stride at four. He disappeared in September 2022, however, and only reappeared this past December. Maybe Todd Pletcher was just trying to get some air into him off a long layoff, because his fifth-place finish in a Gulfstream optional claimer will not serve him well in this race. Irad Ortiz didn’t have many options in this field, but his services rarely hurt and the trainer is placing the horse ambitiously. Don’t be stunned at a price.
4- Hoist the Gold
I don’t know where the hell this horse found a 109 BSF in the G1 Cigar Mile last time out, so don’t ask me. The track was muddy and he got the lead, which could have kept his legs fresh longer than usual. It also isn’t uncommon to see a horse give his opponents the slip, which he seemed to do when he faced virtually no challenge in the stretch. If I had been betting that day, I would have questioned whether he could get a mile and would have been proven wrong in a brutal fashion. At 1 ⅛ miles against a tougher field, however, I feel comfortable doubling down.
5- Trademark
This gelding pulled off a beauty in the G2 Clark last November, sniping fellow runner First Mission at the wire at 13-1 odds. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz seems to have made a meaningful connection with the horse, as they’ve worked together for both of his wins in the past year. Based on the G2 Clark alone, when he earned a perfect trip to beat a very game favorite, he’s a bona fide contender at a price. He’s not at this level historically, however, explaining the disrespect on the morning line.
6- Senor Buscador
California boasts an excellent crop of Triple Crown contenders each year, but their graded stakes for older horses are usually lacking. This horse has been bouncing around in those waters for years, occasionally finding success at home but failing more often than not abroad. He matched his career-best speed figure picking up the pieces behind Hoist the Gold in the G1 Cigar Mile last time out, but the deep closer will need a wild pace to have any say here.
7- National Treasure
I strongly dislike this horse. Yes, he nearly stole the G1 BC Dirt Mile last year from Cody’s Wish and looked good doing it, but that was on his home track at a generous distance. The only time this horse has gone 1 ⅛ miles or longer and succeeded was in the Preakness, when he stumbled into a terrible field of three-year-olds and wired them. I’ll be betting against him as the favorite, even though the 107 BSF he earned last time out could very well be the new norm for him.
8- First Mission
This was the colt I picked to defeat National Treasure in the Preakness last year, but he withdrew from the race and didn’t appear again until October. He was undoubtedly the best horse in the G2 Clark last time out, dueling for the lead the entire way. Fellow runner Trademark got the perfect trip to beat him, but he didn’t give more than an inch all the way to the wire. He has a versatile style and obviously understands the game he’s playing. The layoff adds some uncertainty, but he’s undeniably the pick here in his four-year-old debut.
9- Grand Aspen
Todd Pletcher’s got a late bloomer here, as this five-year-old made his stakes debut in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday on Dec. 30 and nearly won the race at 10-1 odds. This is a big step up in class, which likely rules him out of win contention, but he clearly likes Gulfstream and could make a little noise with the right trip.
10- Il Miracolo
I almost picked this colt to win the Pennsylvania Derby last year at 25-1 odds, and then he almost won the Pennsylvania Derby. 1 ⅛ miles is probably right for him but he’s still 0-for-6 going that far, more of a testament to the tough competition he’s faced in his career. There’s no reason to suspect he can take down this field.
11- Crupi
He was a wise guy on the Derby trail in these parts last year, but he eventually settled in and has since won four races in the New York area. Three of those wins came at this distance, adding some appeal. It’s absolutely wild to see Frankie Dettori riding him, but the European jock likes finding mounts for these races and Todd Pletcher seems to have found a spare for him. It’s practically impossible to see the deep closer winning this race, but he’s trending in the right direction.
12- Skippylongstocking
This Paddy’s Picks fan favorite has been doing his thing since we last checked in on him. He’s very good at picking up checks in low-level stakes races but got a little more ambitious recently, earning a clear show finish in the BC Dirt Mile last year, well behind Cody’s Wish and National Treasure. 1 ⅛ miles is best for him and he’s shown an affinity for Gulfstream in the past. He’s as close to the top level as he’s ever been.
ALSO-ELIGIBLE
13- Castle Chaos
He has one stakes race under his belt, a distant third behind Hoist the Gold and Senor Buscador in the G1 Cigar Mile. He’s never run this far before. He’s never raced outside New York or New Jersey. Tyler Gaffalione is his jockey but already committed to ride another horse in the race. So those are the issues. Wait, one more! Despite spending most of his 13-race career at local allowance levels, he hasn’t been the favorite in a race since his maiden win in December 2021. I like the name though. I hope he makes it in.
Order: 8 3 7 12
First Mission will probably go off as the second choice in this race, but I’ve been waiting for him to break out for some time now. His return to stakes competition in the G2 Clark went awry, but he didn’t run a step out of place and deserved more than place money. I expect him to thrive in a crowded field based on his running style. Dynamic One was once pegged as a serious rising star in this crop, but a setback cost him a massive chunk of his career. Todd Pletcher is placing him very confidently here and I’m willing to take a chance.
National Treasure is the likeliest winner and far outclasses his competition, but he strikes me as a weak favorite. He worked out very easy leads in his two most notable performances, and I don’t trust his ability beyond a mile. He’s more than good enough to win, but I can’t justify a short price on a horse I’ve never cared for. Skippylongstocking is exceptionally good at picking up the pieces in these types of races and I expect him to do something similar here.