My relationship with Monmouth Park has soured somewhat in the past year or so, mostly because of my inept handicapping when I go there. Nevertheless, the G1 Haskell remains one of the biggest races of the year, necessitating a return to Paddy’s Picks.
This year’s field in Jersey is a ton of fun, as it features the typical lot of local runners facing off against the best three-year-olds in the country. This might seem like a silly arrangement, and it is, but I’d much rather watch an eight-horse race with three stiffs than a five-horse race with a wire-to-wire winner.
I’m providing full analysis here, which means I’ll provide some thoughts about every horse in post position order and picks at the end. Let’s jump into it.
Haskell Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:45 p.m. ET
1- Dornoch
I referred to him as a superstar in waiting and there was an overwhelming speed bias on the Saratoga track on Belmont Stakes Day, and that still wasn’t enough for me to bet him at 17-1. I’m not big on regret, but even I have to admit that this one stings. I don’t intend on chasing the money now, however, as this colt remains a need-the-lead type and this race is stacked with front runners.
2- Jasper’s Pride
Organizers for the Haskell always let in a few of these local runners, which I personally appreciate as a fan of the sport. As a handicapper, however, this NJ-bred gelding is the first of three automatic tosses. He has never raced outside statebred competition, and he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in those contests anyway, earning a career-best 73 BSF last time out. I was there for that race on July 6, and I would have never imagined that his next start would be the Haskell.
3- Tuscan Sky
This colt tried to take the short road to the Kentucky Derby back in April, leaping into stakes competition in the G2 Memorial in his third career start. He seemed like a contender that day, but things went awry right out of the gate and Todd Pletcher put him on the shelf after a disappointing seventh. He returned in June for the Pegasus, Monmouth’s Haskell prep, and he dominated a field that included Derby runner Domestic Product, earning a 99 BSF. Bettors probably won’t give him the time of day with so many big names in this field, but it’s a distinct possibility that he’s rounding into form at the perfect time. Heads up.
4- Timberlake
Brad Cox has a tricky runner here, as he’s always seemed a half step behind the very best in this 3YO crop. After finishing fourth in last year’s BC Juvenile, he came back in 2024 and won the G2 Rebel with a nice stalking trip, setting him up as a clear favorite for the G1 Arkansas Derby. That field came up tough against the likes of Mystik Dan, Muth and Real Steel, but he should’ve contended with those runners on paper and never really figured in the result. It’s a big ask for an underachiever like this to take on the Haskell off a layoff, but it’s always possible that he’s found an extra gear with natural maturation. Cox is clearly a believer.
5- Fierceness
His past performances are radioactive. For all of his obvious talent, this colt might be the most erratic I’ve ever seen. In the BC Juvenile and G1 Florida Derby, he looked like a conqueror, earning 105 and 110 BSFs and winning by a 19 ¾ combined lengths. In his three other stakes starts, including the Kentucky Derby, he completely folded. Part of the problem seems to be that he likes to be near the front, which could make him a strong bounceback candidate here despite all the early speed. But he’s just unpredictable and very tough to trust as a co-favorite. It’s all so scary, man.
6- Just Step On It
Alright, that Fierceness analysis got intense. Let’s all take a quick break. This colt ran in an ungraded stakes race at Parx back in March and lost by 9 ½ lengths. He hasn’t raced in stakes company since. We can safely move on.
7- Mindframe
This horse and I have some serious one-sided beef after the stunt he pulled in the Belmont. The Daily Racing Form claims that he “shied out” in the stretch, but I’d like to clarify that he basically took a right turn and then re-rallied, costing me a Pick 5 by a devastating half-length. He was the best horse that day but his limited experience proved extremely costly. I expect him to be improve, but this fits a tougher field than the one he faced at Saratoga.
8- Sea Streak
This NJ-bred actually has a little substance to him, as he’s raced in stakes competition pretty consistently throughout the year and even won an ungraded stakes at Monmouth back in May with a 91 BSF. He’s in way over his head in this field, but he shouldn’t be treated like Jasper’s Pride or Just Step On It. There’s a little more to work with here.
Order: 7 3 5 1
Mindframe is going to be up against it here, but the precocious colt has already shown an immense amount of talent and seems to have a ton of room to improve. If he can run in a straight line here, I think he can go with anyone. Tuscan Sky is just a really cool horse and seems to be putting the pieces together at the right time. His three-year-old season was derailed in the Wood Memorial but he came back with a stellar Pegasus win in June that should prepare him well for this. I’ll take him in my exacta, and could even place a win bet at the right price. Fierceness is a terrifying handicapping proposition, as I genuinely believe he can win this race by five lengths or lose it by 20. It’s been profitable to bet against him so far this year, but he’s going to burn me at some point. Dornoch is a talented horse and it’s good to see him earn the recognition for it, but in the Belmont, he didn’t overcome his weaknesses but simply worked around them. I expect the front end to be crowded today.