I feel like I say this every year, but this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is one of the most exciting dirt fields I’ve ever seen assembled. In addition to American superstars and an increasingly ambitious Japanese contingent, a European turf superstar will also try and make the switch to capture the crown jewel of this historic 14-race event.
In a rare case, it seems like every corner of this Classic division is holding up its end this year. Fierceness and Sierra Leone were the two best American three-year-olds this year (besides Thorpedo Anna), and both are in this field. Japanese superstars Derma Sotogake and Ushba Tesoro are both returning for another crack at a West Coast championship, and dynamic three-year-old Forever Young is also taking another jump across the Pacific.
The older male division is almost always a step behind in the Classic, but that’s not an issue at all this year. Arthur’s Ride electrified the East Coast in the G1 Whitney this year and figures as the speed in this field. Senor Buscador is also trying to back up his white-hot start to the season as well. Next, the stupendous marathon man, will cut back in distance and face his toughest challenge yet.
In addition to all the familiar patterns and grooves of an exciting Classic field, Aidan O’Brien is adding a rare dimension with City of Troy. The European three-year-old has been astounding on the turf this season, and the legendary trainer thinks that his Justify colt is ready to make the surface switch on the world’s biggest stage.
For a race like this, I absolutely have to go through every horse. It’s necessary. It won’t help, as I’ll soon inform all of you that more than half of this field is capable of winning. Still, isn’t it all so exciting? Let’s get into it.
Del Mar, Race 8
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:41 p.m. ET
1- Forever Young (Jpn)
Forever Young (Jpn) is an epic performer, one that has never failed to make a run in seven career starts. He was absolutely manhandled in his only loss in the Kentucky Derby and still managed to finish strong, falling just a head short of the winner in a three-way photo finish. After some time off, he returned in October to take down a competitive 15-horse field in the Japan Dirt Classic, a useful prep for this race. He’s inarguably the most dependable horse in this field and is more than capable of making some noise.
2- Highland Falls
Highland Falls is far from a joke coming off a four-length win in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, in which he crushed fellow runner Pyrenees and earned a 104 BSF. The performance came out of nowhere, and it’s dangerous to bet a horse in a race like this on the basis of a single showing. In April, he made a similar run in the G2 Oaklawn but came up short to Skippylongstocking that day. Maybe he gets another minor prize here.
3- City of Troy
Aidan O’Brien is claiming that City of Troy is the best horse he’s ever trained, which is a stunning claim. But watching his progression as a three-year-old in Europe this year, it’s also a little hard to argue. Tossing a horrendous start in the G1 English 2000 Guineas, he has been absolutely flawless in six commanding victories. The 127 Timeform Rating he earned while taking the G1 Juddmonte International in August would make him a favorite in any of the Breeders’ Cup turf races this year, but instead, O’Brien feels confident enough to switch him to dirt at Del Mar. The Kentucky-bred colt by Justify might just be up to the task. Maintaining his form on a new surface could prove devastating for the rest of the field.
4- Mixto
Mixto won a weak running of the G1 Pacific Classic last time out at 22-1 odds. It doesn’t necessarily make him a contender here, but it was a win at the same conditions he’ll face in the Breeders’ Cup. That’s not nothing.
5- Senor Buscador
Senor Buscador made waves when he pulled off a stunner to win the G1 Saudi Cup back in February. Based on his runner-up showing in the G1 Pegasus World Cup the race prior, he was clearly entering the Middle East in extremely sharp form. He’s not entering this one in fighting shape; in two starts back in California, he has not finished better than fourth and is coming off a 79 BSF.
6- Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
Derma Sotogake (Jpn) pulled off a minor stunner last year when he came off a massive layoff to finished second in this race behind White Abarrio. He was a very talented three-year-old who also earned Kentucky Derby buzz, but he’s been very flat in three starts at four. The company has been consistently tough, but he failed to finish better than fifth and consistently ran behind several rivals he’ll face here. Improvement needed.
7- Ushba Tesoro (Jpn)
Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) entered last year’s Classic with six straight wins under his belt, including the G1 Dubai World Cup. He didn’t fire his best shot at Santa Anita, however, finishing fifth at a short price. He’s not quite as sharp entering the 2024 running of this race, having earned three runner-up finishes in three starts this year. Still, he is more than capable of competing at this highest level and could be up to the task again.
8- Pyrenees
Pyrenees has come up short in his first two G1 attempts, including a loss to fellow runner Highland Falls in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He needs to take a step forward to have a chance here.
9- Fierceness
The Travers has proven to be an effective prep for the Classic in the past, and Fierceness has the goods. Earning a 111 BSF to defeat Thorpedo Anna and Sierra Leone in that race was an elite achievement for a horse that previously had a reputation for no-showing certain races. I’m unsure if this race sets up as well for him — chasing down Arthur’s Ride is a different challenge — but he remains an obvious danger.
10- Tapit Trice
Tapit Trice is an honest runner at a price, one that has mixed it up with some very good horses over the course of his career. After a high-profile three-year-old season, he took a small step back at four, making just three starts. He did win the G2 Woodward last time out over Skippylongstocking, however. He’s trending in the right direction, even if he’ll need much more to win here.
11- Sierra Leone
The G1 Travers could not have set up better for Sierra Leone, a deep closer chasing early speed on a friendly Saratoga track. For the fourth straight race, however, he failed to make up the necessary ground and had to settle for a minor prize at short odds. He obviously fits in this field, boasting a ton of class and more than enough speed, but he’s extremely hard to trust as a win candidate. At least the price should improve.
12- Arthur’s Ride
Arthur’s Ride is an extremely dangerous long shot here, the sort that often frustrates me in races like this. He’s not the strongest in this field, but when he gets an uncontested lead, he has proven capable of taking down some of the best horses in the country with massive speed figures. His win in the G1 Whitney was a massive statement, and though he failed to follow it up in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, he didn’t necessarily have to. It feels like he’ll always have a puncher’s chance at the highest level, especially on a Del Mar track that’s often forgiving to front runners.
13- Newgate
Newgate was a Triple Crown contender last year before suffering a setback and missing most of his three-year-old campaign. Returning in 2024, he was solid in a handful of local starts and even won the G1 Santa Anita Handicap before taking an ill-fated trip to the Middle East. He has only run in the U.S. once since, when he came up just short in the G1 California Crown with a 102 BSF. He’s not ridiculous at a price.
14- Next
Next is an awesome runner, the marathon man that has won his last seven starts by 89 combined lengths. He’s an incredible athlete and would be extremely dangerous at a longer distance. Instead, he’s cutting back to take on the best in the world on their terms from the far-outside post. That’s a huge ask, but he might just be up to it. In the G2 Brooklyn at 1 ⅜ miles in July, his shortest race since 2022, he won by 9 ½ lengths with a 109 BSF. Don’t count him out.
Also Eligible:
15- Rattle N Roll
I’ve liked Rattle N Roll ever since he won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity as a juvenile, though things haven’t always panned out since. He’s a solid runner who strung together five straight triple-digit speed figures last year, but he hasn’t been as sharp as a five-year-old.
Order: 1 3 9 14
There are so many monsters in this race, and it’s frankly impossible to narrow it down to four. Forever Young (Jpn) has a ton of heart and always runs his race, and that’s a comfort amid such chaos. City of Troy is a world beater who seems more than capable of handling the dirt for Aidan O’Brien. Fierceness will be up against it here, but if he can work out the same trip he found in the Travers last time out, he’ll be extremely dangerous in the stretch. Next has been a superstar under many people’s radars for a very long time, and I think there’s a chance he finally takes center stage here.